Malazan Empire: worry - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Tiste Simeon, on 06 November 2024 - 11:38 PM, said:

And my axe!

For example: if Aileen Cannon is on his short list for AG or SCOTUS, or if one of his first acts is pardoning J6 convictions, I'd take it as a bad bad sign.

Azath Vitr (D, on 06 November 2024 - 04:02 PM, said:

Yeah, to be clear -- all three parts of my post were "best case scenario". The split of the House might be different, the Senate may very well abandon the filibuster or do some real damage with their two 'reconciliation' bills per year (goodbye ACA?), etc.

Edit: I guess it's worth noting that the incoming senator from Utah (replacing Romney) is actually to the left of him relatively speaking. McConnell will be around a bit, even if he's passing the leader baton. A couple other old heads around. There remain some pro-filibuster Rs.

The Supreme Court is gone, and is the biggest loss in terms of long-term reshaping of the country -- very little doubt he will get to replace Thomas and Alito now. Not to mention stocking federal courts even further with Federalist Society picks. Lots and lots of 20th Century progress will be eroded here, and Citizens United will remain the stake in this country's heart.

Full compliance in the Senate and Congress is TBD. I don't mean that in any kind of optimistic Rs-have-integrity sense. But a lot in the Senate will have to do with if Rs abandon the filibuster, which may be a hard sell even now, but we'll see. And a very thin split in the House (it's looking like 218-217 either way, give or take a few) is more chaotic than anything else.

The executive branch is probably where Trump will do the most immediate institutional damage, both domestic and abroad, and it's not going to be pretty. You guys already know what the foreign policy is gonna be. But here, Project 2025 is real, and while there might not be 100% overlap with his agenda, it's founded in efforts the first Trump admin was trying to do anyway (it's laughable that he pretends it's not), and the Heritage Foundation will get its way most of the time with any GOP admin. Also look for Stephen Miller to go full throttle, the single most dangerous person in Trump's circle imo.

At the close-up level it's probably a combination of all the things people are saying. More broadly, given the margins here (and worldwide trends) I think incumbents are being punished (and immigrants scapegoated) across the board for post-COVID economies and perceptions thereof. In terms of who's actually to 'blame' here, I think there's plenty to go around. Though I doubt it'd be helpful to point fingers anywhere but inward, for the Dem political class. For now I'm just hoping the Senate staunches some of the bleeding and the remaining few razor margin races fall our way somehow.

I mean, ultimately I doubt politics-as-usual is going to matter so much during what's coming, but I'm pretending for now that post-mortems matter. Just in case, I guess.