[worry]

"No one is spared, not even newborn babies. The scale of Palestinian child killings in Gaza is such that UN chiefs have described it as a 'graveyard for children'." -- That reminds me of a passage in a book I once read. But I'll spare you.


Digest version on IG: https://www.instagra...fj/?img_index=3

[Lady Bliss]

Yeah. Israel is about to drag us all into WW3. I don’t see this being a nuclear war, but all the players are there. NK, Iran, and Russia all in bed over Ukraine, Russia is going to owe them a lot of favors. The only way i see it stopping is by US and UK condemning Israel and getting on board with a ceasefire. That won’t happen.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Ut oh looks like the Tories may have found a winning strategy:

Quote

So you really thought you were safe in your cosy, North-West-European world? [...]

Think again, sucker. [...]

[...] General Sir Patrick Sanders [is he the offspring of Patrick Stewart and Colonel Sanders?], the Chief of the General Staff, who warned that "within the next three years, it must be credible to talk of a British Army of 120,000 – folding in our reserve and strategic reserve." "But this is not enough," he went on to say. "We will not be immune, and as the pre-war generation, we must similarly prepare – and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking. Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them."

There were soon thousands upon thousands of memes, reactions, and takes on General Sander's call for a mass draft of British teenagers. Some discussed elaborate draft-dodging strategies; others lamented a generation of snowflakes and said they hadn't a hope in hell against the Russians.

A British "citizen army" is something Russia should fear - New Statesman

Quote

Do you think there would be conscription in the UK and other NATO countries to pick up the manpower slack?

I think the European countries, especially those that had the two years of military service for anyone who is 18 to 20, those that had had that relatively recently, they would be more likely to reinstate conscription fairly quickly, just because it's a little bit more culturally familiar.

The United States, though, hasn't had a draft since the early 1970s. It would cause a lot of problems because it would require a kind of a cultural shift in how we view the military – I imagine for the British as well. [...]

[...] assuming that it went longer than a month, I imagine that conscription probably would be brought in at some point.

[...] If those professional forces are under too great a strain and they begin to falter, then a draft is going to be called.

Will Conscription Happen If We Go to War With Russia? An Expert Explains (vice.com)

... unless we can make good enough killer robots fast enough... still think they're such a terrible idea?

Of course that might be when China decides to make moves on Taiwan, with the US (if still under Biden, at least---Trump, who knows? I think he's at least as likely to accept what amounts to a bribe and 'let China be "China" (Again!)') trying to stop them....

Quote

Europe's Leaders Are Addicted to Austerity

[...] These austerity measures [...] worsened and lengthened the [economic] crisis in Europe. The continent's recovery after the 2008 financial crisis was a lot slower than it was in the United States. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe, the underinvestment in health care services was exposed for all to see. [...]

[...] The return of austerity will inevitably lead to significant cuts to public services everywhere. This is especially the case because exceptions are being made for some sectors — notably for military expenditure. This way, austerity will also reinforce the ongoing militarization of the economy and society. [...]

[...] almost one-third of Europeans feel they are currently in a precarious financial and material situation. A similar number admitted they had had to skip a meal when hungry.

[...]

This is not the first time that unelected European institutions have intervened to force spending cuts and belt-tightening on EU member states. Indeed, it is part of a pattern of austerity imposed from above that not only eats away at standards of living, but also at the European project itself. [...] a corporate straitjacket, systematically promoting the interests of the bosses at the expenses of working-class Europeans.

Europe's Leaders Are Addicted to Austerity (jacobin.com)

Granted, 'the ongoing militarization of the economy and society' might actually be a good thing, given the twin threats of Putin's Russia and Trump's withdrawal (... or eventually possibly even worse...).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 25 January 2024 - 05:17 PM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 25 January 2024 - 05:17 PM, said:

Ut oh looks like the Tories may have found a winning strategy:

Quote

So you really thought you were safe in your cosy, North-West-European world? [...]

Think again, sucker. [...]

[...] General Sir Patrick Sanders [is he the offspring of Patrick Stewart and Colonel Sanders?], the Chief of the General Staff, who warned that "within the next three years, it must be credible to talk of a British Army of 120,000 – folding in our reserve and strategic reserve." "But this is not enough," he went on to say. "We will not be immune, and as the pre-war generation, we must similarly prepare – and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking. Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them."

There were soon thousands upon thousands of memes, reactions, and takes on General Sander's call for a mass draft of British teenagers. Some discussed elaborate draft-dodging strategies; others lamented a generation of snowflakes and said they hadn't a hope in hell against the Russians.

A British "citizen army" is something Russia should fear - New Statesman

Quote

Do you think there would be conscription in the UK and other NATO countries to pick up the manpower slack?

I think the European countries, especially those that had the two years of military service for anyone who is 18 to 20, those that had had that relatively recently, they would be more likely to reinstate conscription fairly quickly, just because it's a little bit more culturally familiar.

The United States, though, hasn't had a draft since the early 1970s. It would cause a lot of problems because it would require a kind of a cultural shift in how we view the military – I imagine for the British as well. [...]

[...] assuming that it went longer than a month, I imagine that conscription probably would be brought in at some point.

[...] If those professional forces are under too great a strain and they begin to falter, then a draft is going to be called.

Will Conscription Happen If We Go to War With Russia? An Expert Explains (vice.com)

... unless we can make good enough killer robots fast enough... still think they're such a terrible idea?

Of course that might be when China decides to make moves on Taiwan, with the US (if still under Biden, at least---Trump, who knows? I think he's at least as likely to accept what amounts to a bribe and 'let China be "China" (Again!)') trying to stop them....

Quote

Europe's Leaders Are Addicted to Austerity

[...] These austerity measures [...] worsened and lengthened the [economic] crisis in Europe. The continent's recovery after the 2008 financial crisis was a lot slower than it was in the United States. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe, the underinvestment in health care services was exposed for all to see. [...]

[...] The return of austerity will inevitably lead to significant cuts to public services everywhere. This is especially the case because exceptions are being made for some sectors — notably for military expenditure. This way, austerity will also reinforce the ongoing militarization of the economy and society. [...]

[...] almost one-third of Europeans feel they are currently in a precarious financial and material situation. A similar number admitted they had had to skip a meal when hungry.

[...]

This is not the first time that unelected European institutions have intervened to force spending cuts and belt-tightening on EU member states. Indeed, it is part of a pattern of austerity imposed from above that not only eats away at standards of living, but also at the European project itself. [...] a corporate straitjacket, systematically promoting the interests of the bosses at the expenses of working-class Europeans.

Europe's Leaders Are Addicted to Austerity (jacobin.com)

Granted, 'the ongoing militarization of the economy and society' might actually be a good thing, given the twin threats of Putin's Russia and Trump's withdrawal (... or eventually possibly even worse...).

Once the West acknowledged that "making semi-authoritarian regimes our main trading partners will soften them up, and will make sure they aren't interested in breaking the rules" strategy towards Russia and China was a conceptual failure, re-militarization was sort of inevitable.

recent surveys in the EU indicate that in some countries less than 40% are willing to stand up and fight to resist an invader; so given such figures, governements will need to invest a ton into the army, and to make it lucrative career path, in order to make defense viable.

Killer robots en mass aren't happening anytime soon. not with machine learning AI genie out of the bottle.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 25 January 2024 - 08:02 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 25 January 2024 - 08:02 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 25 January 2024 - 05:17 PM, said:

Ut oh looks like the Tories may have found a winning strategy:

Quote

So you really thought you were safe in your cosy, North-West-European world? [...]

Think again, sucker. [...]

[...] General Sir Patrick Sanders [is he the offspring of Patrick Stewart and Colonel Sanders?], the Chief of the General Staff, who warned that "within the next three years, it must be credible to talk of a British Army of 120,000 – folding in our reserve and strategic reserve." "But this is not enough," he went on to say. "We will not be immune, and as the pre-war generation, we must similarly prepare – and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking. Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them."

There were soon thousands upon thousands of memes, reactions, and takes on General Sander's call for a mass draft of British teenagers. Some discussed elaborate draft-dodging strategies; others lamented a generation of snowflakes and said they hadn't a hope in hell against the Russians.

A British "citizen army" is something Russia should fear - New Statesman

Quote

Do you think there would be conscription in the UK and other NATO countries to pick up the manpower slack?

I think the European countries, especially those that had the two years of military service for anyone who is 18 to 20, those that had had that relatively recently, they would be more likely to reinstate conscription fairly quickly, just because it's a little bit more culturally familiar.

The United States, though, hasn't had a draft since the early 1970s. It would cause a lot of problems because it would require a kind of a cultural shift in how we view the military – I imagine for the British as well. [...]

[...] assuming that it went longer than a month, I imagine that conscription probably would be brought in at some point.

[...] If those professional forces are under too great a strain and they begin to falter, then a draft is going to be called.

Will Conscription Happen If We Go to War With Russia? An Expert Explains (vice.com)

... unless we can make good enough killer robots fast enough... still think they're such a terrible idea?

Of course that might be when China decides to make moves on Taiwan, with the US (if still under Biden, at least---Trump, who knows? I think he's at least as likely to accept what amounts to a bribe and 'let China be "China" (Again!)') trying to stop them....

Quote

Europe's Leaders Are Addicted to Austerity

[...] These austerity measures [...] worsened and lengthened the [economic] crisis in Europe. The continent's recovery after the 2008 financial crisis was a lot slower than it was in the United States. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe, the underinvestment in health care services was exposed for all to see. [...]

[...] The return of austerity will inevitably lead to significant cuts to public services everywhere. This is especially the case because exceptions are being made for some sectors — notably for military expenditure. This way, austerity will also reinforce the ongoing militarization of the economy and society. [...]

[...] almost one-third of Europeans feel they are currently in a precarious financial and material situation. A similar number admitted they had had to skip a meal when hungry.

[...]

This is not the first time that unelected European institutions have intervened to force spending cuts and belt-tightening on EU member states. Indeed, it is part of a pattern of austerity imposed from above that not only eats away at standards of living, but also at the European project itself. [...] a corporate straitjacket, systematically promoting the interests of the bosses at the expenses of working-class Europeans.

Europe's Leaders Are Addicted to Austerity (jacobin.com)

Granted, 'the ongoing militarization of the economy and society' might actually be a good thing, given the twin threats of Putin's Russia and Trump's withdrawal (... or eventually possibly even worse...).

Once the West acknowledged that "making semi-authoritarian regimes our main trading partners will soften them up, and will make sure they aren't interested in breaking the rules" strategy towards Russia and China was a conceptual failure, re-militarization was sort of inevitable.

recent surveys in the EU indicate that in some countries less than 40% are willing to stand up and fight to resist an invader; so given such figures, governements will need to invest a ton into the army, and to make it lucrative career path, in order to make defense viable.

Killer robots en mass aren't happening anytime soon. not with machine learning AI genie out of the bottle.

You mean the EU would be too cowed by AI doomers to allow EU nations to have killer robots? But weaponized drones---even if not autonomous---technically already are killer robots. Without offensive drones their military capacity might be crippled relative to Russia. Making them semi-autonomous would be much more efficient (like a security guard sitting back and monitoring multiple screens at once, and directing the killer robots as necessary if they steer off course or start killing the wrong humans, etc.).

If only Russia and China develop autonomous offensive drones and other assorted killer robots, that will give them a massive advantage. (I trust in the United States to also develop killer robots, but with Trumpism running rampant who knows whether the US would intervene militarily in a war against NATO... on the side of NATO.)

Suppose there's a ceasefire in Ukraine. Putin and Xi take a few years to develop their armies of autonomous killer robots while the EU nations struggle to build up their militaries. Autonomous robots (drones and beyond) could offset Russia's population disadvantage relative to the EU even if the EU attempted to draft as many people as it possibly can....

[Garak]

Semi or autonomous killer robots ..... Yeah, when AI makes art that is total nonsense, can't grasp depth and just regurgitates stuff with no real understanding of anything I'm not trusting it with a gun. Especially in a chaotic as hell scenario as a warzone.

[Tsundoku]

Garak, on 26 January 2024 - 06:07 AM, said:

Semi or autonomous killer robots ..... Yeah, when AI makes art that is total nonsense, can't grasp depth and just regurgitates stuff with no real understanding of anything I'm not trusting it with a gun. Especially in a chaotic as hell scenario as a warzone.

Throw in hackers or just shitty code as well.

When the AI starts to do its shooting job well, is that just a sign of the imminent emergence of Skynet?

[Primateus]

Garak, on 26 January 2024 - 06:07 AM, said:

Semi or autonomous killer robots ..... Yeah, when AI makes art that is total nonsense, can't grasp depth and just regurgitates stuff with no real understanding of anything I'm not trusting it with a gun. Especially in a chaotic as hell scenario as a warzone.

We'll be needing wave after wave of our own men.

[Maark Abbott]

There is zero chance of me being conscripted. Put me in jail. I'm not killing folk for fucking Tories.

[Tiste Simeon]

Maark Abbott, on 26 January 2024 - 12:57 PM, said:

There is zero chance of me being conscripted. Put me in jail. I'm not killing folk for fucking Tories.

100% this. Screw them.

[Macros]

I mean, anyone who fucks the tories needs an award, not killing

[Tsundoku]

Macros, on 26 January 2024 - 01:54 PM, said:

I mean, anyone who fucks the tories needs urgent medical attention/psychotherapy/genetic testing for incest, not killing

FTFY

[Macros]

Different uses of the word fuck there Sombra

[worry]

If any of you do go to prison for draft dodging and can still post, give us your location and I'll write you.

[Abyss]

I bake an excellent chocolate fudge file cake!

[Cause]

One of my favorite lines from the traitor baru corumant is when’s a character basically tells someone they are a brilliant player, their failure however is they don’t account for the moves of their opponents. They play their hand optimally but are always surprised when an opponent makes a move that will change the nature of the board. I had never heard it out so clearly as I had then and it felt like an epiphany even thought the premise is simple and obvious. The game of chess even, you have to see three moves ahead just to be competent and that includes your opponents moves. Grandmasters see much much further.

I feel like that’s where we are today with a little bit of sensationalism by politicians and the news. Yes Ukraine Russia has exposed that modern wars between peers can drag out, that we don’t have the manpower or the reserves of arms we now realized we will need. We have also learn neither do our potential opponents. We evaluate and we adjust. We were not overly vulnerable before and we are not overly vunerbale now. Are stockpiled low after sending them to Ukraine to use? Yes. Are the opponents stockpiles low after using them on Ukraine? Yes.

I keep hearing people discuss what Russia could do in a vacuum or what the USA can do in a vacuum but wars are fought with at least two sides. Every move has a counter move.

These board has been changed and unlike chess it’s not as easy to see so far ahead but we will reorient to play the hand optimally.

That said the USA for example faces an uphill battle against congress that uses the military for sheltered employment and to generate state revenue. So generals telling congress they don’t need more tanks still end up with more tanks. I’m not an expert so I may be wrong but I also don’t think the USA best move is to build ten more Gerald r ford class aircraft carriers.

That said I don’t think the USA should seat and I don’t think the draft will activate in the uk anytime soon.

This post has been edited by Cause: 26 January 2024 - 07:15 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Garak, on 26 January 2024 - 06:07 AM, said:

Semi or autonomous killer robots ..... Yeah, when AI makes art that is total nonsense, can't grasp depth and just regurgitates stuff with no real understanding of anything I'm not trusting it with a gun. Especially in a chaotic as hell scenario as a warzone.

First of all, none of that is really accurate. Secondly, while all these applications use neural networks, they generally have different architectures, training methods, and sets of training data. More importantly:

Quote

On the battlefield, autonomous Ukrainian drones, both military and civilian, identify and strike Russian targets. AI automates take-off and landing, as well as targeting.

Ukraine's Secret Weapon - Artificial Intelligence - CEPA

Quote

Cheap but lethally accurate: how drones froze Ukraine's frontlines

Every few days the Russians attack. Their forays across open ground end in the same way: complete disaster. [...] Typically, all the Russians die.

The difficulties experienced by Russia [...] point to a wider problem facing both armies. [...] a significant breakthrough [is] almost impossible[...] in an era of cheap and lethally accurate drones.

The result of Ukraine and Russia's extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is a kind of warfare that makes traditional Nato doctrine "pretty much obsolete"

Cheap but lethally accurate: how drones froze Ukraine's frontlines | Ukraine | The Guardian

Autonomous or more fully semi-autonomous missile-launching drones with advanced AI could significantly outperform individual human-piloted armed drones with humans always pulling the trigger on the kill shot---and could certainly be more efficient. (Of course, while Ukraine has drones that can fire missiles, many of the drones are kamikazes, colliding with their targets.)

If NATO-minus-the-US were really too afraid of rogue AI or (other potential) hackers to use offensive drones or other robotics they'd be at a tremendous disadvantage.

Granted, the possibility of AI malfunctioning and killing the wrong people is a significant issue. But remember:

Quote

Moscow's "meat grinder" tactics were ineffective, [but] "They don't care about human life, including their own people. [...]"

Cheap but lethally accurate: how drones froze Ukraine's frontlines | Ukraine | The Guardian

Suppose semi-autonomous drones that fire on their own result in friendly fire 1% of the time, but are otherwise several times more efficient at killing/destroying enemies per person than people. The EU might decide that's too terrible a bargain to make, but Putin wouldn't hesitate to take it, and it would give Russian forces a substantial advantage.

OTOH it's highly unlikely that advanced AI would make offensive drones into unstoppable super-warriors, so there really isn't much to worry about.

OTOOH if NATO minus the US decides it's okay with offensive drones but not with semi-autonomous drones, it could try to leverage their population advantage to match Russian semi-autonomous drones. Getting as many people as possible piloting drones. Subsidies for game manufacturers who design realistic training games... paying people to play them competitively, etc. But AI would probably still be able to significantly outperform the best humans. NATO would have (956.39-331.9)/143.4 ≈ 4.3545 times as many people as Russia, so AI would have to give Russia a greater multiplier than that per person... which seems very plausible. But we'll have to see what happens.

Tsundoku, on 26 January 2024 - 06:52 AM, said:

Throw in hackers or just shitty code as well.
When the AI starts to do its shooting job well, is that just a sign of the imminent emergence of Skynet?

Again, drones with AI targeting systems are being deployed extensively in Ukraine and (along with artillery) dominating the battlefield, but hacking of drones hasn't afaik been a major issue.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 27 January 2024 - 01:03 PM

[Tsundoku]

Oh wow. I mean, we always knew those in power pretty much everywhere were a bunch of hypocrites and scum, but to get it on camera ... in Iran ... something else.

Secret sex tapes expose hypocrisy of country’s elites
A country with hard line rules on sex and drugs is embroiled in a scandal as prominent figures are exposed in X-rated footage.

https://www.news.com...dc0ed8b98184ce6

----------------

Probably my favourite line:

“The crime of those who released these videos is greater than the fornicators,’” insisted the Deputy Speaker of the Parliament of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Zolnouri.

[Maark Abbott]

Macros, on 26 January 2024 - 01:54 PM, said:

I mean, anyone who fucks the tories needs an award, not killing

Have I got a Bansith for you

[Maark Abbott]

Lots of rumblings on Twitter that Israel is setting up to invade Lebanon.

I would defer to my more politically well-read chums here on this - is there substance to this or is it just Twitter being Twitter?