[Lady Bliss]

Maark Abbott, on 29 January 2024 - 12:58 PM, said:

Lots of rumblings on Twitter that Israel is setting up to invade Lebanon.

I would defer to my more politically well-read chums here on this - is there substance to this or is it just Twitter being Twitter?

Can’t say that I would be surprised based on their actions.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Maark Abbott, on 29 January 2024 - 12:58 PM, said:

Lots of rumblings on Twitter that Israel is setting up to invade Lebanon.

I would defer to my more politically well-read chums here on this - is there substance to this or is it just Twitter being Twitter?

fwiw (The Jerusalem Post):

Quote

A report was circulated on social media [...] by a reporter from the Lebanese Al-Manar network, which is affiliated with [...] Hezbollah, allegedly quoting Israeli media and according to which the Israeli government will declare war with Lebanon within hours[...]

There is no such report by Israeli media, Maariv stated, but the warnings in the Arab media cause great concern in Lebanon.

[...] the head of the Hezbollah faction in the Lebanese parliament[...] warned Israel against attacking. [...] stated that Lebanon's security is above all else and that Hezbollah is well prepared for war, and if until now Israel has felt only the partial power of the organization, then in an all-out war, "it will taste the extension of its arm."

Lebanon panics over fake reports claiming Israel plans to 'declare war' - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

OTOH:

Quote

Israel is 'closer to war' with Hezbollah than ever, senior Israeli official says

The two sides have traded fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border for months.

[...] Israel's north is bristling with tens of thousands of regular troops and about 60,000 reservists, an IDF official told ABC News[...]

[...] The Lebanese government has also accused Israel of trying to create a de facto buffer zone by destroying tens of thousands of trees to deprive Hezbollah of cover.

"Israel has really increased the rhetoric and signals of war recently,"

Israel is 'closer to war' with Hezbollah than ever, senior Israeli official says - ABC News (go.com)

Quote

There is a mega-bomb waiting to explode in the Middle East. Biden must not light the fuse by attacking Iran

[...] Now [Biden] may miscalculate again, with even more terrible ramifications.

Direct American military retaliation against Iran itself would be a disaster. It would prolong the Gaza conflict. It would almost certainly trigger an all-out Hezbollah attack on Israel. It could turn local firefights into raging infernos in Iraq and Syria, and destabilise friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf.

There is a mega-bomb waiting to explode in the Middle East. Biden must not light the fuse by attacking Iran | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 29 January 2024 - 04:08 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

the war between Russia and Ukraine has banished any misgivings either country might have had about military use of artificial intelligence. Each side is deploying millions of [drones] to [...] attack enemy positions—and relying heavily on AI to direct their actions. [...]

[...] the real influence of AI lies, as the Russo-Ukrainian war shows, in [...] small, conventionally armed systems, each with its own programming that enables it to take on missions without a human guiding its path.

[...] "Drone technology often depends on the skills of the operator," [...] but Russia is reportedly incorporating more AI technology to make these [attack] drones operate autonomously.

[...] Western [AI] technologies that Russians are sneaking past sanctions with the help of outsiders. [...] Once the AI identifies a shape as characteristic of a Ukrainian weapons system (for instance, a distinctive German-made Leopard battle tank), the drone's computer can basically order the Lancet to attack that object, even possibly controlling the angle of attack to allow for the greatest possible damage.

[...] the Ukrainian deputy defense minister, recently [talked ...] about his country's efforts to put AI systems into their French-built Caesar self-propelled artillery pieces. The AI, he explained, would speed up the process of identifying targets and then deciding the best type of ammunition to use against them. The time saved could make a life-and-death difference if Ukrainian artillery operators identify a Russian battery faster than the Russians can spot them. [...] estimated that AI could offer a 30 percent savings in ammunition used

What Happens to War When AI Takes Over - The Atlantic

And you could save even more time by letting AI pull the trigger too, at superhuman speed---if wasting ammunition wasn't a major issue---OTOH if your battery gets taken out before you can fire then all the ammunition that you had gets wasted....

Quote

the U.S. [...] Replicator [project] is an attempt to use self-guided equipment to "help overcome China's advantage in mass." She painted a picture of a large number of autonomous vehicles and aerial drones accompanying U.S. soldiers into action, taking on many of the roles that used to be done by humans.

These AI-driven forces—perhaps solar-powered, to free them from the need to be refueled—could [...] attack enemy targets.

What Happens to War When AI Takes Over - The Atlantic

So just as Replicator could help US forces overcome China's population advantage, AI drones and other robots could help Russia overcome NATO's population advantage (especially if Trump withdraws from NATO, or NATO is unwilling to adopt offensive AI).

Quote

If Europe wants to defend itself, it must build armies that people want to join

If Europe wants to defend itself, it must build armies that people want to join | Cas Mudde | The Guardian

... or use AI, and let drones and other robots take the place of human casualties.

At the very least let humans remotely pilot drones and robots, as in a video game. IDK whether it will be harder or easier to have effective self-driving tanks than it has been to develop self-driving cars (though Russia will care much less about safety, so long as they result in an overall increase in efficiency), so remote operation with more limited AI might still have advantages for the next few years. (It's a bit ironic that flying is generally easier for AI than traveling by land, but it makes sense.) Same goes for many other types of remotely piloted robots.

Quote

so far, the Russia-Ukraine war has led to a recruitment slump, rather than a rise, among EU militaries, despite government campaigns.

Some military insiders have already called for the reintroduction of military service, which many EU countries either abolished or suspended after the cold war. There is much to say for that, both from a pragmatic and a democratic perspective. [...] But it will also require far broader popular support, particularly from young people, who will have to do the military service. If Europe wants to defend itself, it must build armies that people want to join | Cas Mudde | The Guardian

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 01 February 2024 - 04:45 PM

[Cause]

Well it took a month but the DC court has ruled unanimously that trump is not immune from prosecution. So presumably he will ask the Supreme Court to review it. They really shouldn’t even bother but with this court who knows.

The Trump trail clock however for now at least resumes. If the November election takes place without a court having ruled him either innocent or guilty this country and it’s court systems will have failed unambiguously. It would be inconceivable to ask people to vote for a president without knowing if one of the candidates was guilty of a crime.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 06 February 2024 - 03:39 PM, said:

Well it took a month but the DC court has ruled unanimously that trump is not immune from prosecution. So presumably he will ask the Supreme Court to review it. They really shouldn't even bother but with this court who knows.

The Trump trail clock however for now at least resumes. If the November election takes place without a court having ruled him either innocent or guilty this country and it's court systems will have failed unambiguously. It would be inconceivable to ask people to vote for a president without knowing if one of the candidates was guilty of a crime.

SCOTUS declined to fast-track it before so they'll probably slow-walk it now....

[Edit: NM the rest of what I wrote before, I was thinking of the Colorado ballot case.]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 06 February 2024 - 04:02 PM

[Cause]

Azath Vitr (D, on 06 February 2024 - 03:51 PM, said:

Cause, on 06 February 2024 - 03:39 PM, said:

Well it took a month but the DC court has ruled unanimously that trump is not immune from prosecution. So presumably he will ask the Supreme Court to review it. They really shouldn't even bother but with this court who knows.

The Trump trail clock however for now at least resumes. If the November election takes place without a court having ruled him either innocent or guilty this country and it's court systems will have failed unambiguously. It would be inconceivable to ask people to vote for a president without knowing if one of the candidates was guilty of a crime.

SCOTUS declined to fast-track it before so they'll probably slow-walk it now....

[Edit: NM the rest of what I wrote before, I was thinking of the Colorado ballot case.]

So many cases I cant remember either. I think Jack Smith asked the supreme court to take it immediatly but they said declined and said the lower court must make a decision first. I believe people interpret this every way from the supreme court is singaling it doesnt believe their is any serious matter of law for them to rule on because its so obvious the president isn't above the law, to this guarantees the process will take longer. That said the unanminous ruling from the lower court and the absence of any real position to argue for immuniy would make them overturning the case one would think impossible.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 06 February 2024 - 04:58 PM, said:

So many cases I cant remember either. I think Jack Smith asked the supreme court to take it immediatly but they said declined and said the lower court must make a decision first. I believe people interpret this every way from the supreme court is singaling it doesnt believe their is any serious matter of law for them to rule on because its so obvious the president isn't above the law, to this guarantees the process will take longer. That said the unanminous ruling from the lower court and the absence of any real position to argue for immuniy would make them overturning the case one would think impossible.

Quote

there is reason to think a majority of the justices might kick the can down the road far enough to help Trump evade accountability before November. Such a move would be indefensible. [...] The question is not whether a majority will ultimately agree with Trump (it won't) but whether a majority will abet Trump's efforts to run out the clock (it might).

[...] Taking up a case requires four votes. Granting a stay requires five votes. [...] the case likely comes down to [...] Roberts, as well as [...] Barrett, [...] Kavanaugh, and perhaps [...] Gorsuch. [...]

It's a footrace, then, between the law and the clock. And while the former stands squarely against [Trump], running out the clock isn't just his only play—it's pretty much been his superpower. The nine justices are aware of all this [...]

There are turtles built into the architecture of the Supreme Court building [...] Like fine wines, the law cannot be rushed.

Supreme Court knows what to do with Trump's immunity ploy. (slate.com)

But like fine wines the law can also go sour and become toxic when exposed to the wrong environments (or improperly handled... including by people drunk on their own power)....

[LinearPhilosopher]

So we got an armed standoff between texas and the US goverment, a war in palestine, the looming trump election, what else am I missing on my list of crises for my 2024 bingo card.

[Gorefest]

Russia-Ukraine war? China?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

LinearPhilosopher, on 08 February 2024 - 07:51 PM, said:

So we got an armed standoff between texas and the US goverment, a war in palestine, the looming trump election, what else am I missing on my list of crises for my 2024 bingo card.

Lawsuits attempting to cripple the development of AI in the United States, while Biden tries to cripple the development of AI in China (and Trump might be even worse, unless China bribes him---perhaps he'll try to start a bribery bidding war between China and US Big Tech?)... oh well, perhaps Japan will rise again (like a singularity sun...)? The University of Tokyo may help them win the quantum computing race too.

(Or could it be the UK? Doubtful....)

[Mentalist]

LinearPhilosopher, on 08 February 2024 - 07:51 PM, said:

So we got an armed standoff between texas and the US goverment, a war in palestine, the looming trump election, what else am I missing on my list of crises for my 2024 bingo card.

keep an eye out on the Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia triangle

If Ukraine runs out of weapons and things go really bad, don't be shocked if there's a Balkan flareup

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 February 2024 - 06:24 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 09 February 2024 - 06:23 AM, said:

LinearPhilosopher, on 08 February 2024 - 07:51 PM, said:

So we got an armed standoff between texas and the US goverment, a war in palestine, the looming trump election, what else am I missing on my list of crises for my 2024 bingo card.

keep an eye out on the Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia triangle

Quote

As he was busy defiantly defending himself against a [...] report by special counsel [...] that he is "a[n ...] elderly man with a poor memory," [...] Biden took questions from the press and was asked about the situation in Gaza[...]

"I think as you know initially, the president of Mexico, El-Sisi, did not want to open up the gate to humanitarian material to get in. I talked to him. I convinced him to open the gate."

Biden Confuses Presidents of Egypt and Mexico During Presser About His 'Memory' (thedailybeast.com)

Opening the gates... to Mexico! The horror, the horror! MAGA is probably claiming it's a Freudian slip revealing his True Evil intentions (or is that (one of) the demon(s) possessing him?), lol

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 February 2024 - 01:34 PM

[Lady Bliss]

CNN’s top headlined are about Biden and Trump’s posturing on the border with nothing more on the aid truck slaughter in Gaza. Israel needs to be condemned, defunded, and sanctioned! I could care a less about 2 old white men.

[worry]

I highly recommend *not* watching the video of the IDF systematically tracking with a drone and then firing missiles at and exploding four Palestinian civilians who were otherwise minding their business.

This post has been edited by worry: 22 March 2024 - 03:16 AM

[Maark Abbott]

It's absolutely disgraceful how Israel seems to have a free pass to murder civilians like it is. If this was a country that wasn't backed by America it'd have been smacked down half a year ago for what's going on.

[Tsundoku]

You're all quite correct, but I also note the utter lack of world reaction when Saudi Arabia etc actively contribute to killing tens (hundreds?) of thousands of Yemenis. Just as one example.
I wonder what KSA has that Israel doesn't? Hmmm ...

Please carefully note I am no fan of Israel and have no horse in this race. I just think it's all shit but find the disparity in coverage (and interest from western nations) rather telling.

Then again there's all sorts of fucked up shit going on in various countries that we barely hear about except every blue moon. Eg Myanmar. Yes, I have the ability to go find out things for myself, but I'm not talking about that, I'm referring to the differences in ... profile (?) ... and promotion in western media.
Is it a reflection of our attitudes and tastes, or an active attempt to divert attention by the powers-that-be because it suits them? Both? Is it part of this weird modern western thing where you can't be seen to disparage certain demographics/ideologies, because reasons?

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 22 March 2024 - 11:50 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

Can't criticise the Saudi state, they have too much money tied up in our governments. So nothing gets said about them. They're kind of seen as the "acceptable" Middle Eastern lot by the West, because they're not Pakistan/Afghanistan/whoever. (Don't ask who funds Al Queada et al)

The profile on Israel is different because this latest thing started so publicly. So instead of just not talking about it, they're trying to control the narrative. Hence: criticise the Israeli state and you're an anti-Semite. Please ignore that Palestinians are also technically Semitic.

It's obviously way more complicated than this but that's how I see it.

[Maark Abbott]

Tiste Simeon, on 22 March 2024 - 12:27 PM, said:

Can't criticise the Saudi state, they have too much money tied up in our governments. So nothing gets said about them. They're kind of seen as the "acceptable" Middle Eastern lot by the West, because they're not Pakistan/Afghanistan/whoever. (Don't ask who funds Al Queada et al)

The profile on Israel is different because this latest thing started so publicly. So instead of just not talking about it, they're trying to control the narrative. Hence: criticise the Israeli state and you're an anti-Semite. Please ignore that Palestinians are also technically Semitic.

It's obviously way more complicated than this but that's how I see it.

This is a very severe distillation of the situation (as you say yourself) but at the same time it is the most accurate summary of what the core issue is.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

They burst into the room, yanking the boy from under a bed. His brown eyes wide open with terror, they put a gun to his temple. Two shots. [...]

[...] Arab militia [...] intent on completing the genocide against the Masalit community, a darker-skinned African tribe, which began 20 years ago.

[...] "The world is wilfully ignoring a crisis that will affect us all. [...]"

Spoiler

[...] Sudan's civil war nears its first anniversary next month [...]

A group of militia emerged through the dust. One carried a large axe. He asked: "Are you a Masalit?"

Huda nodded, immediately the men began beating her with clubs.

[...] Afterwards, frozen with shock, Huda realised that two of her children[...] had been hiding in a toilet beside where she had been raped. They had watched [...]

[...] "They were going through the neighbourhood, killing the men, attacking the women who were left."

'Here, there is no future': ethnic cleansing and fresh atrocities drive exodus of thousands from Darfur | Global development | The Guardian

Personally, I've been particularly interested in the culture and history of Myanmar, Ethiopia, and Yemen for a long time, and the relatively small amount of coverage in the mainstream progressive media has been disappointing if not unexpected. The modern mindfulness tradition popularized in the US can largely be traced back to monks in Myanmar who were trying---on the basis of ancient texts---to reconstruct meditative practices that had been abandoned (at least locally).

And Yemen is where the use of coffee as a beverage originated. So when I do my daily body scan meditations, and when we drink coffee... but no such causal connection or special interest should be necessary to care about atrocities.

Back to your question:

Of course part of the disparity, particularly on social media, in academia, and among leftist activists, is that Israel-Palestine can be fitted into a "white European settler-colonialist" framework (though some of the issues---or at least minor complications---with that framing have been discussed here). Another part of it, for the Western right wing, is the special status of Israel for Christians (with many in the US at least believing the state of Israel necessary for the end times, etc.) and the appeal of the Israeli right-wing to the right-wing in other western nations. And part of it is the outsize role that Jewish people on both sides play in Western media and in funding the media (while of course far from "controlling the media", it is a disproportionately large influence). As well as the very large number of Muslims who oppose the Israeli occupation of Palestine and attempts to influence western countries, especially the United States, to stop funding Israel and supplying them with weapons (though obviously relations between Israel and many wealthy Arab nations like Saudi Arabia were making progress towards normalization---apparently one of the motivating factors behind the Hamas attacks).

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The Echoes of Israeli Apartheid in Myanmar

[...] The alliance should not be surprising: Both regimes have pursued, almost obsessively, the creation of an ethno-state, and both see extreme violence as a legitimate tool to advance this effort. [...] Israel's experiments in social engineering, colonization, and the systematic weakening of Palestinians appear to have diffused eastward. The parallels in the conditions imposed on Rohingya and Palestinians in the decades prior to the moment of violence that brought each to The Hague are striking, right down to the development of settler villages on confiscated land and the specifics of their apartheid systems of control. These measures were vital not only to enabling the genocidal violence underway in Gaza now and in Rakhine State in 2016 and '17, but also in rallying the public to see those communities as necessary targets of mass killing.

The Echoes of Israeli Apartheid in Myanmar | The Nation

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 March 2024 - 04:06 PM