Malazan Empire: Mentalist - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

The initial plan has been reduced to a 19-point framework that requires more work. The Thanksgiving deadline's been scrapped.

A few days ago, UAF hit one of the oldest geothermap plants in muscovy- the Shaturo DRES. It was built in the 20s, to run on peat. it's part of Moscow Oblast's electric grid. They had to bring in 10 mobile generation stations to cover for it.

The strike is significant, b/c this is Moscow oblast, where anti-air is supposed to be the tightest; yet, there's ample footage of drones flying in, with only machine gun fire trying to intercept them.

The see-saw of "negotiations" boosted the ruble. Which is good, b/c less petro dollars when the ruble is strong, meaning, bigger budget deficit.

The orcs continue to try to envelop Hulyaipole in SE Zaporizhya Oblast'. There's also been an increase in activity in NE Kharkiv, where they were able to connect their earlier breach towards Velyky Burluk to their bridgehead W of the Oskil. Altogether, the orcs now control a strip about 28 km wide from the Oskil along the border. It's only 4-6 km deep, but still worrisome.

In Pokrovs'k, the 7th Airborne corps is trying to keep the orcs behind the railway out of the northern part of the city, but it's a difficult process.

 Tiste Simeon, on 21 November 2025 - 09:38 PM, said:

UA can't ditch US, unless EU, UK, Canada, Norway, Japan, Australia, etc are ready to step in to fill the gap.
It's a tall order

Still, agreeing to yield the remainder of Donbas would finish Zelensky. He's already reeling from a massive corruption scandal, with everyone demanding he sack his head of office, Yermak. Some of his own party are calling for a wider coalition and a new government one that would become independent of Zelensky (and thus more accountable). So things aren't exactly clear RN

OTOH, putler just reiterated that the orcs captured ALL of Kup'yans'k on the 4th. So he's not exactly operating with an adequate picture of reality, either.

Difficult to say how this'll shake out. The Europeans are gonna be desperate to impact on trump AGAIN that making concessions to putler before a ceasefire will make him look like a weak loser; but whether it'll work this time is anyone's guess.

Werthead, on 19 November 2025 - 06:49 PM, said:

Dmitriev'sbeen leaking the plan to news outlets, as if it's something that's been accepted as a roadmap, trying to give everyone heart attacks.

Other voices, though, like Michael Weiss are sharing US insider's statements that this is Witkoff's personal fantasy that isn't American formal position.

looks like another media blitz to move the negotiation goalposts by making the orcs' demands as an accepted baseline.

Huge explosions in Novorossiysk, as both the oil export terminal, and the anti-air unit defending the city seems to have been hit by missiles.

With Tuapse being shut down last week after a massive sea drone strike damaged piers and several tankers, if the UAF shut down Novorossiysk, then the Black Sea oil export route is dead. Which would also effectively take Kazakh oil off the global market, b/c they rely on Transneft' to transport their oil to the Black Sea where they sell it.

The orcs can't effectively ship their Western Siberian oil to the Pacific (they don't have the pipes, or the railway capacity to expand goods traffic rapidly), which means they can only export through the Baltic ports at Ust-Luga. And there's some very vulnerable pumping stations along those supply pipes...

Got my hands on the new phone I ordered for my birthday.

it's snowing like crazy, so perfect excuse to do nothing and tinker with it.