Malazan Empire: Mentalist - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

Mentalist, on 21 September 2026 - 01:38 AM, said:

NATO can smell the weakness too though. A small response now will stave off decades of problems and dealign with Russia now is easier and cheaper then ever because of how much Ukraine is sucking up their wealth, manpower, military and covert resources too.

Honestly if they try this and NATO doesnt smack it down like gods own wrath, well you cant fix stupid.

Russia can’t handle the war they have. I’m not Alexander the Great but this strategy seems to have no benefits. They can always retreat behind the shield wall of nuclear power but that will only stop them losing ground. They can’t win ground that way or the capitulation would never end. So I’m skeptical. Even as some kind of negotiating tactic it seems more suited to harden Europe against Putin then deliver relief.

Thoughts?

https://www.youtube....rts/0M3ZnsoZ9fg

Apologies for a Twitter-link, but this is the best summary of the current order of battle I've seen for the entire front.

This is actually pretty startling, Russia has been forced to concentrate a colossal amount of its total firepower in the Ukrainian theatre on a front about 30 miles wide. Meanwhile, the rest of the roughly 750-800-mile long front is covered by considerably fewer troops-per-mile. This would be more encouraging if Ukraine did not have to focus the majority of its strength in the same way (or risk the entire centre collapsing). Still, Ukraine has managed to achieve its moderate breakthrough (so far) north of Lyman and is focusing on exploiting that advantage whilst Russia is struggling to fully mobilise against it.

Certainly on the Russian side, they have very limited reserves, what you see is what you get, so whenever Ukraine pressures elsewhere on the line, Russia has to dip into the middle for reinforcements, which weakens the middle. This is why Russia is considering the risks of mobilisation because they need fresh bodies but not civil society descending into chaos at the same time.

Girkin was correct, Russia should have switched from attack to defence in 2026, remaining on the offensive has seriously damaged their ability to hold geographically unfavourable sectors of the front and any secondary or tertiary fronts where Ukraine can establish local superiority can be compromised. Fortunately, nobody listened to him.

The main problem here remains Ukraine being unable to convert local and tactical successes into more widespread strategic ones, but with their manpower situation (though improved over 2025) still strained it's hard to see where they can do that. One small possibility, but some Russian commentators have panicked over it, is that Ukraine can exploit the Lyman breakthrough into a larger-scaled breach into the Russian rear, where the impressive array of fortifications and dug-outs the Russians left some time ago are empty, and they haven't even laid substantial minefields. That could trigger a massive problem leaving the Russian centre vulnerable to a sweeping flanking attack. I consider that highly improbable at the moment.

The USA has just put massive sanctions on VTB Bank for doing business with Iran, that could be huge. VTB is not doing well anyway. US analysis that Russian diesel exports have just dropped to 0.

Ukraine has captured five Colombian POWs. Apparently they were hired by the Russians to operate in rear-echelon areas but within days had been moved to the front. The first Colombian POW convinced the others to surrender, saying none had an urge to die for Russia.

Russian forces have pressed closer to Orikhiv on the Zaporizhzhia front, that could be a critical blow if the town is taken.