Malazan Empire: Mentalist - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

the broken, on 25 January 2026 - 11:43 PM, said:

The strategic goal, given hostile attitude from the US, is to force a ceasefire. Muscovites are demanding UA cede all of Donbas, and their basis is "we are on the offensive and we will grind it down eventually anyhow, so give it to us to stop further losses".


If there's a real opportunity to regain significant ground and reverse this offensive momentum, then it would make their demands more blatantly unreasonable.

The way things are going, UA is aiming for an attrition win. if their battlefield advantage becomes obvious, putler will be forced to start another mobilization. This could potentially be disastrous for his economy. Ultimately, Ukraine wants to force him to this move, but they need to increase enemy losses exponentially first, while keeping steady replenishment rates and reducing dependencies on weapon systems (and components) from allies and "neutral" 3rd parties (such as China)

It depends. They would need to get to the point where they completely stop an offensive in a sector b/c they are shifting forces to other frontlines to create a situational advantage that would allow for a counter-offensive operation of at least tactical-operational level. Right now, the orcs are still trying to push basically everywhere, so I find it unlikely; but I'm not part of the UAF HQ, so all I can do is speculate.

Despite some "constructive" developments in the Abu Dhabi negotiations, the orcs continue to try to keep Kyiv blacked out during a minus 20+ coldsnap.

At the same time, UAF struck power infrastructure in Belgorod, Bryans'k and Taganrog. Perm' and Murmansk are dealing with power outages due to un-assisted infrastructure failure.

UA's new MoD is the former Minister of Digital Transformation, the one who pushed drone development, and introduced many control systems into it. His goal is increase orc casualties to 50k+ a month, which is causing moral outrage and panic and commentary about "dehumanizing and bloodthirsty Ukrainians".
He's also striving to remove all reporting paperwork by integrating real-time status updates that commanders can monitor from all their units, eliminating the opportunities for false reporting, and removing admin paperwork. Which has the Z-head voenkors even more sppoked, b/c this efficiency is likely to make things a lot more impactful.

 Werthead, on 18 January 2026 - 10:54 PM, said:

fake
https://bsky.app/pro...t/3mcpigap2722n

I fail to see how airstrikes make the Iranian regime relent.

Hate to be a downer on this, but I just don't see how this is supposed to work constructively.

Unless the protesters can seize armories and defend themselves, I'm not expecting a positive outcome.

We've seen this in play out in Belarus, and in Georgia. If the regime is unwilling to budge, no amount of peaceful protesters in the streets sway them. And if IRGC and their foreign auxiliaries are willing to gun down protesters en masse, then you won't change the regime without organized resistance.