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Drone Strike in Tyumen today, apparently. On a refinery.
This is the heart of Western Siberian oil production. almost 2000 km from UA. Most likely, the drones were launched from muscovy itself, as a few were jammed and 3 fell on the refinery grounds w/o exploding.

Possibly also a hit on the Perm' refinery (1600 km), but info there is conflicting.

RN there's a duel b/w Belgorod and Kharkiv. Kharkiv was hit at least 20 times, drones and ballistic missiles are being used. Belgorod had a few more missile strikes on its power infrastructure, the governor ordered diesel-powered emergency generators brought in.

Euroskeptic Populists won in Czech republic parliament election. They will probably need to make a coalition with the far-right anti-EU party, which wants an anti-EU referendum. Needless to say, support to UA is likely to be affected.


French govt collapsed again. Macron struggling, as apparently there's attempts to impeach him.

Multiple strikes on Crimea, hitting a bunch more radars, AA systems, and some ammo dumps. The fuel base in Feodosiya is still on fire, 2nd day in a row, another tank exploded, so that should help with keeping the deficit going.

UA and Denmark signed off on joint weapon production in Denmark. Supposedly, these are the Flamingo cruise missiles; to be honest, I'm getting sick of hearing about the would-be-domestic-wunderwaffen, I'd rather not know they exist until they start blowing shit up in large quantities.

Greece isn't just transferring artilly ammo, but also 60 high-caliber SPGs. Czech Republic was considering sending its last party of modernized T-72s, since they're getting Leopard 2s to replace them, but this might be doubtful now.


There's been a bit of pushback in the S Donets'k axis, with the orc advances being slowed down, and UAF claims to have pushed the enemy back from a cluster of villages away from Orestopil'; However, this is still the most unstable portion of the frontline. Some reports that the forward isolated orc groups on the "Dobropillya salient" are being cleaned up totally, but no strong confirmations. Both sides are operating in small groups of 2-5 people at a time, dodging multitudes of of hovering spotter drones; the front lines are extremely blurred as the result, and its becoming harder and harder to determine actual areas of control.



Overall, the orcs are shifting their attention to long-range air war again, since they seem to have hit production capacity to sustain daily intensive bombardments. UA's started hitting back at power objects, but the primary focus is still refineries, though it's unclear how close they are to a critical threshold.

champ, on 25 September 2025 - 02:10 PM, said:

Hell is Us is GOTY for 2025 when it comes to non-AAA games, sorry.

(I kid, it's gonna be Silksong, b/c game journalists are as addicted to the hype as anyone else, and we'll both be disappointed).

We are still like 2 weeks away from the Steam NextFest, but there's so many demos for my wishlisted games coming thick'n'fast. Motorslice, Psycho Dead, now The Directorate: Novitiate.

Waiting on the release of Blood of Mehran next week. Picked up a bunch of stuff over the sale, pruned down my wishlist, grabbing most things that were over 60% off, or under 10 CAD.

ZNPP has been running on diesel generators for almost a week, since the orcs damaged the last Ukrainian power line feeding the station. The concerns over meltdown have become so serious that Grossi finally acknowledged this.

The orcs also launched 20 drones at the power infrastructure in the city of Slavutych. While it's located in Chernihiv Oblast', it's adminstratively an enclave of Kyiv Oblast, b/c it's a satellite city of Chornobyl, where off-duty workers lived. So its power infrastructure was connected to Chornobyl' directly. And damage there caused a blackout in the containment grid for 3 hours.

Power's been restored, but overall, the situation's concerning.

DeepState finally updated their map of Dobropillya salient, showing the second orc group in the salient now contained in the gray zone- the territory to the S of the salient isn't under UAF control, but they don't have any control linking them to the main force that's still trying to push W towards Rodyns'ke to cut the roads from Dobropillya to Pokrovs'k.

Their gradual advances on the S Donets'k axis continue. There's also concerns about Lyman axis, as they are pushing further W to the north of the city, trying to envelop it.

Crimean gas stations limit individual purchases to 20L per car. Yaroslavl' refinery got hit last night, one of the few big remaining refineries that avoided attacks in this cycle so far. Some Muscovite media is reporting that close to 40% of refining capacity has been offline in September- some due to planned maintenance, most due to drone strikes.
Muscovy will be removing import tariffs from Chinese, Korean and Singaporean gasoline and diesel. The goal is supply the Far East and send domestic production from Siberia to the deficit-stricken Central districts.

The most important measure in the future budget project is the bill to take the small business exception threshold for VAT relief and simplified tax filings down from 60 million RUR yearly revenue to 10 million RUR. This basically kills simlified tax reporting for like 90% of small businesses, and makes them pay full VAT rate.

Worth noting: Belgorod TES operates on GE turbines, installed n 2007. So if those were impacted by the hit (and there's reasons to suspect the machine hall was hit), then replacing them is going to be virtually impossible in the short term, b/c sanctions.
IF this was actually HIMARS, that's a major signal from Washington that Moscow needs to at least pretend they want to talk about winding things down. In an infrastructure-targeting all-out slugfest, muscovy is going to have a hard time RN, whereas UA's going into its fourth wartime winter, and it's got a much better idea and game plan for how winters without steady power are to be survived.

If Moscow region finds itself without power for a few days during some sort of a cold snap, then A LOT of the worn out utilities infrastructure might start cascading down. I'm not talking about the mega-city itself, but all of those smaller soviet-era towns that still have several million people living there now, and have basically shoestring municipal budgets.

It seems that Sandu is going to keep her pro-EU majority in Moldova, albeit dropping from 61 seats in the 101-seat parliament to just over 50. Still a majority, but much slimmer. Still, considering this was Moscow's main political influence project of the year, it's an astounding success.

There was also a fire in the RosReserv storage base in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. That's next to a refinery, right up to the Chinese border.

The fuel situation is going to be complicated.

-there are several vertcally integrated petro corps, that both gather, refine, and sell their own oil and petrochemicals.
-there are also a multitude of other gas stations that have to buy shipments of refined fuel on the commodities exchange. When the overall production falls, the refinery owners will prioritize their own gas stations, thus squeezing out those operators who don't have their own refineries. They will, indeed, face shortages and some are likely to go out of business.
-so the words saying "there's gas shortages in Oblast' X" can be somewhat misleading. Again, we need to avoid excessive optimism. Things ae getting harder for them, but we're not really into collapse territory yet.

EDIT: drones spotted over three Danish airports now. One of them is a military base.

The Nordics need to be investing into CEW hard, yesterday.