Malazan Empire: Mentalist - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

trump is on the clock, b/c if the aftershocks actually reach the US, the reps will likely crash and burn in November, and he might end up totally hobbled (if not outright impeached, depending how bad the Senate map will get)

And Iran knows this. They have the summer droughts, the money running out to pay the troops, and another wave of riots maybe coming, but overall, there's no viable opposition for the rioters to coalesce around to actually threaten to replace the regime. And if the US and Israel resume bombing Iran, it'll make the IRGC's domestic position stronger, at least temporarily.


Everyone can see this; so it's just the question until the toddler-in-chief can be coaxed into believing what he ends up conceding is gonna be the greatest victory of all time.

Some big IT firms in muscovy leaked that ISPs had a meeting with FSB's second service division (the people responsible for suppressing opposition) and made them all sign an off-the-record paper pledging to make every effort to disable the use of VPNs in their networks.

Which basically confirms that the internet crackdown is being run by FSB directly. The people who don't believe that anyone has actual agency.


Which means things are gonna be getting progressively worse.

meanwhile, the Tuapse refinery and terminal is on fire again. The orcs reported that they put it out, so then Magyar (no, not that one) decided to hit it again.

Also hit was Sevastopol bay, with 5 ships reported damaged- 4 landing craft, and one big reconnaissance ship.

Azath Vitr (D, on 19 April 2026 - 11:08 PM, said:

If the oil shortages last a few more months, I expect EU will start confiscating the oil and fuel from the shadow fleet tankers they'll be impounding from muscovy.

Abyss, on 20 April 2026 - 02:37 PM, said:

they've got roughly 4 million FSB and Rosgvardiya sitting around, waiting for revolts to put down. Regular police force is about 30% understaffed (because a lot of beat cops joined up the war for higher pay early on), and Rosgvardiya actually absorbed the Interior Affairs' Ministry's most capable divisions (Organized Crime, Muscovy's version of SWAT, and their drug control divisions were all re-subordnated to Rosgvadiya in 2023), so there's a catastrophic lack of "basic" law enforcement, but the anti-riot troops are sitting pretty. And after Prigozhin's mutiny attempt they've been legislatively cleared to have heavy weapons.


Government officials are all beneficiaries of the system, and they've been conditioned to look out only for themselves, with everyone hoping that they won't be caught up in the "anti-corruption" purges, which are actually just attempts to redistribute the shrinking pie. and since civil service (and state-owned corps) are seen as the most desirable jobs for the young people, it'll take a LOOOONG time before the bureaucracy runs out of potential staff to the point where things start collapsing)


Any attempts to self-organize it, be it charity or trying to keep the local lake from being polluted, are generally cracked down on, because "the people in charge know best". Anyone with a shred of charisma is either co-opted or pressured out of the country, or imprisoned.

The system is quite efficient at keeping the population in a state of learned helplessness. So no, I wouldn't expect people on the streets until the people in charge of law enforcement feel like it's their time to make a play. And it's hard to imagine that until there's a real vacuum in power.

trump decided to let orcs sell their oil w/o a price cap for another month.

In response UAF hit a secondary Baltic terminal in Vysotsk, 2 refineries in Samara Oblast (NovoKuybyshevs'k and Syzran'), as well as the main pumping/transit hub in Krasnodar Krai at Tikhorets'k. The last fire was so massive they needed over 50 pieces of equipment and over 200 firefighters to contain it.

UAF HQ also reported hitting Sevastopol, destroying fuel stoarage tanks and damaging 3 ships (2 big landing ships that were hit previously- Azov & Yamal, as well as a Grachonok-type patrol boat). Nothing sunk, though- they'd probably need missiles to do sufficient damage for that.

The orcs have been lobbing a lot more missiles at Ukraine this week, and the civilian toll has been quite heavy, close to 20 people. Every day there's reports from Nikopol. It's a city across the Dnipro from the ZAES, and home to a large ferrous alloys factory. The orcs have been using FPV drones to target transit vehicles, trying to inflict maximum civillian casualties. There really is no logic to this beyond terror tactics. They don't have the manpower to try to cross the river, so you can't even say they want to depopulate the other river bank to make it easier to land.

Orcs are desperately trying to recruit students and factory/business workers without ordering mobilization. University deans and business owners are being handed out recruitment quotas, and confirmations of this are gradually spreading.

Remains to be seen if these tensions actually amount to anything. The next potential pressure date is Victory Day, obviously. if putler does end up cancelling the parade, or relocating from Moscow further E, that'll be an interesting sign.