[Primateus]

I've seen speculation that social distancing may have to continue until 2022 if no vaccine is found.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Puck, on 15 April 2020 - 07:48 PM, said:

Traveller, on 15 April 2020 - 08:37 AM, said:

We have a young guy (20s) in recovery after he rolled his car yesterday and broke his leg. His CT scan for his chest/ribs show that his lungs have exactly the same anomalies as covid lungs.

He has had no symptoms, no problems and apart from the fracture he's fine. He's being swabbed, but from his lungs it looks like he's positive.

I wonder just how many people have this and don't know, and won't know either.

Not quite comparable, but here in Germany they did a study in Gangelt (the town that was hit first and hardest in Germany) and it has shown that while about 5% of the population of Gangelt had been known to have/have had it after having been tested due to showing symptoms, overall about 15% of the town's population had actually had it by now. Now, that doesn't mean the 10% that had not been aware of having had it was completely asymptomatic; they may just have had very mild symptoms - the official press conference presenting the study didn't offer any info on that. Also, statistically speaking there were way more people tested in Gangelt in relation to the town's population than overall in Germany, so it's not really indicative of what percentage of people has actually had it in the country. But it's still an interesting number and the overall percentage of yet unknown cases elsewhere is probably even higher considering Germany is supposedly testing more than a lot of other countries per 1M people.

All that said, there were 43% percent more people out and about during the Easter weekend than two weeks ago just now. This could negate all the gains we've made here in the past weeks but hey, at least people got to see family and enjoy the sun, I guess...

'German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the country's lockdown can begin to lift, after reaching a "fragile interim success."

[...] Schools, which have been closed across the country have been closed since mid-March, are now slated to start reopening on May 4.

Hairdressers and barbers will also be allowed to open their doors on May 4, provided they have protective measures in place.

[...] Some stores will be permitted to open next week, if they implement hygiene precautions. Only shops that are up to 800 square meters (8611.13 square feet) will be allowed to re-open at that time. Car dealerships, bike shops, and bookstores are allowed to re-open, no matter their size'

https://www.npr.org/...ncing-continues

Wonder if people will be more reluctant to take public transport or walk / cycle, and consequently purchase more cars. (Self-driving taxis could conceivably clean themselves between passengers.) This would also ameliorate one of the main drawbacks to robotics ETFs at present (since car manufacturing has been one of the main applications).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 15 April 2020 - 09:34 PM

[Cause]

Primateus, on 15 April 2020 - 09:13 PM, said:

I've seen speculation that social distancing may have to continue until 2022 if no vaccine is found.

Honestly it might be possible that as mentioned above far more people have been exposed than we realize. Hopefully it’s true. Otherwise I just don’t see us maintaining this quarantine for that long. Won’t be any restaurant, bar, gym left standing by that point.

When this was early stage I actually thought it might be good to get infected on purpose and get it over with before hospitals got overwhelmed. I know wonder if the best strategy wouldn’t be to ramp up ventilators, and other necessary treatment medicines, gear etc and than for example using the us as the model purposefully let it ran rampant one state at a time, with hopefully at least enough ability to treat people, before moving to the next state with all the doctors and equipment and repeating.

The Spanish flu killed maybe 50 million but probably infected 500 million. It went away when there was no one left who had never had it.

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 15 April 2020 - 09:33 PM, said:

Puck, on 15 April 2020 - 07:48 PM, said:

Traveller, on 15 April 2020 - 08:37 AM, said:

We have a young guy (20s) in recovery after he rolled his car yesterday and broke his leg. His CT scan for his chest/ribs show that his lungs have exactly the same anomalies as covid lungs.

He has had no symptoms, no problems and apart from the fracture he's fine. He's being swabbed, but from his lungs it looks like he's positive.

I wonder just how many people have this and don't know, and won't know either.

Not quite comparable, but here in Germany they did a study in Gangelt (the town that was hit first and hardest in Germany) and it has shown that while about 5% of the population of Gangelt had been known to have/have had it after having been tested due to showing symptoms, overall about 15% of the town's population had actually had it by now. Now, that doesn't mean the 10% that had not been aware of having had it was completely asymptomatic; they may just have had very mild symptoms - the official press conference presenting the study didn't offer any info on that. Also, statistically speaking there were way more people tested in Gangelt in relation to the town's population than overall in Germany, so it's not really indicative of what percentage of people has actually had it in the country. But it's still an interesting number and the overall percentage of yet unknown cases elsewhere is probably even higher considering Germany is supposedly testing more than a lot of other countries per 1M people.

All that said, there were 43% percent more people out and about during the Easter weekend than two weeks ago just now. This could negate all the gains we've made here in the past weeks but hey, at least people got to see family and enjoy the sun, I guess...

'German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the country's lockdown can begin to lift, after reaching a "fragile interim success."

[...] Schools, which have been closed across the country have been closed since mid-March, are now slated to start reopening on May 4.

Hairdressers and barbers will also be allowed to open their doors on May 4, provided they have protective measures in place.

[...] Some stores will be permitted to open next week, if they implement hygiene precautions. Only shops that are up to 800 square meters (8611.13 square feet) will be allowed to re-open at that time. Car dealerships, bike shops, and bookstores are allowed to re-open, no matter their size'

https://www.npr.org/...ncing-continues

Wonder if people will be more reluctant to take public transport or walk / cycle, and consequently purchase more cars. (Self-driving taxis could conceivably clean themselves between passengers.) This would also ameliorate one of the main drawbacks to robotics ETFs at present (since car manufacturing has been one of the main applications).

Fuck buying a car. Expensive hassle.

I'd rather bike the 30-odd clicks to work, except for the fact that it's winter 6 months of the year.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 15 April 2020 - 10:40 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 15 April 2020 - 09:33 PM, said:

Puck, on 15 April 2020 - 07:48 PM, said:

Traveller, on 15 April 2020 - 08:37 AM, said:

We have a young guy (20s) in recovery after he rolled his car yesterday and broke his leg. His CT scan for his chest/ribs show that his lungs have exactly the same anomalies as covid lungs.

He has had no symptoms, no problems and apart from the fracture he's fine. He's being swabbed, but from his lungs it looks like he's positive.

I wonder just how many people have this and don't know, and won't know either.

Not quite comparable, but here in Germany they did a study in Gangelt (the town that was hit first and hardest in Germany) and it has shown that while about 5% of the population of Gangelt had been known to have/have had it after having been tested due to showing symptoms, overall about 15% of the town's population had actually had it by now. Now, that doesn't mean the 10% that had not been aware of having had it was completely asymptomatic; they may just have had very mild symptoms - the official press conference presenting the study didn't offer any info on that. Also, statistically speaking there were way more people tested in Gangelt in relation to the town's population than overall in Germany, so it's not really indicative of what percentage of people has actually had it in the country. But it's still an interesting number and the overall percentage of yet unknown cases elsewhere is probably even higher considering Germany is supposedly testing more than a lot of other countries per 1M people.

All that said, there were 43% percent more people out and about during the Easter weekend than two weeks ago just now. This could negate all the gains we've made here in the past weeks but hey, at least people got to see family and enjoy the sun, I guess...

'German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the country's lockdown can begin to lift, after reaching a "fragile interim success."

[...] Schools, which have been closed across the country have been closed since mid-March, are now slated to start reopening on May 4.

Hairdressers and barbers will also be allowed to open their doors on May 4, provided they have protective measures in place.

[...] Some stores will be permitted to open next week, if they implement hygiene precautions. Only shops that are up to 800 square meters (8611.13 square feet) will be allowed to re-open at that time. Car dealerships, bike shops, and bookstores are allowed to re-open, no matter their size'

https://www.npr.org/...ncing-continues

Wonder if people will be more reluctant to take public transport or walk / cycle, and consequently purchase more cars. (Self-driving taxis could conceivably clean themselves between passengers.) This would also ameliorate one of the main drawbacks to robotics ETFs at present (since car manufacturing has been one of the main applications).

Fuck buying a car. Expensive hassle.

I'd rather bike the 30-odd clicks to work, except for the fact that it's winter 6 months of the year.

'For this study, he and his team were able to access the wind tunnel at Eindhoven University to take measurements of the air flow around runners and cyclists at three speeds: a normal walking pace, a fast run, and a moderate cycling speed. They also factored in the effects of evaporation of respiratory droplets, although they did not compute what would happen with crosswinds, headwinds, or tailwinds.

Then they combined the data with existing studies about how respiratory droplets spread during exercise. It’s important to note that their study does not attempt to estimate the risk of infection from exposures during exercise; it just describes the aerodynamics of respiratory particles.

His team concluded that cyclists and runners have to stay much farther than 6 feet from a runner or rider in front of them to avoid inhaling droplets or having them land on their bodies. He calculated safe distances for each sport: That 65 feet is needed when riding a bike at 18 miles per hour, 33 feet while running at a 6:44 minutes-per-mile pace, or 16 feet while walking at a normal pace.

[...] Linsey Marr, an expert in airborne transmission of viral diseases and a professor of civil engineering at Virginia Tech, says the issue of whether people can become infected from cyclists or runners is still undecided. “We need to keep in mind, though, that we don't yet know what size particles released by an infected person actually contain virus and whether that virus is ‘alive,’ or can still infect others,” Marr wrote in an email to WIRED.

She agreed with Blocken’s advice to walkers and runners to allow for greater spacing if traveling right in front of or right behind another person. However, she notes that the study assumed no wind. “Basically, if you're directly upwind or downwind of others,” Marr wrote “allow for more space.”'

https://www.wired.co...ading-covid-19/

Granted, a respirator mask (once they become widely available again) could mitigate the risk (if there actually is any significant risk), but they can be difficult to breathe through, especially while exercising. (Respirators with their own air supply are easier to breathe in but I think they're relatively heavy?)

[Mentalist]

when I go for walks (I relatively walk fast-6-7 clicks per hour, usually) I try to give it ppl as wide berth as possble- I'm not squeamish about getting off sidewalk to walk on grass and such

Thankfully I live in the suburbs, where almost everyone prefers to drive,so the streets are half deserted even in the best of times

[Malankazooie]

Getting worried for Dr. Fauci. Saw an interview with him today and he is looking worn down. I doubt he's getting a lot of sleep. I know he is an avid runner and is in excellent health. I just hope he takes some time to get adequate sleep. Can't have him getting sick.

[Cause]

Respirator masks are actually pretty light: when we used to go spelunking for Ebola bats we had a hepa filter with a battery combined into a kind of fanny pack belt. It sucks in air through the hepa filter and than blows that air into your head mask. Could easily have carried the weight all day. That said not something you want to wear for long.

[Macros]

Shit, ok looks like we're going to have to sit down and have a pow wow about dates tonight.

One problem is I don't really have that movie cliché family member, I'm fairly close with the whole damned extended bunch. It will be big numbers

[Maark Abbott]

Tsundoku, on 15 April 2020 - 08:30 AM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 15 April 2020 - 07:51 AM, said:

I mean frankly I can't accept that anything is said in good faith by members of a government who have an actual traitor installed as home secretary but there you go.

Uh, what's that?

Priti Patel got kicked out of the last government (not criminally charged though, presumably because she's ruling class) for selling classified state information to Israel without either the knowledge or permission of government.

I am really itching to play music again. So much so that it's tempting to stop at the practice space on the way home from shopping and get my bits out, but... Agh, it's maddening. Right now I can't do anything musically at all which is immeasurably frustrating. Looks like the UK is going to have three more weeks of lockdown that half the population ignores. The one flip side is I'm not paying £115 a month to get to and from work, so I am actually slightly better off just now.

[Tsundoku]

Maark Abbott, on 16 April 2020 - 07:50 AM, said:

So much so that it's tempting to stop at the practice space on the way home from shopping and get my bits out, but... Agh, it's maddening.

Fight that urge Maark - especially if the practice space is within 100' of a school, like that nice judge said.

[QuickTidal]

People in certain US States are now out in force protesting social distancing/quarantine measures...fucking hell, apparently nearly 30k infected yesterday means NOTHING to these fucking idiots.

You wanna know how it's going to get worse? Just like the 1918 Spanish Flu....just when people got sick of staying inside and went out to try to return to normalcy when they thought the flu had abated enough...that shit caused the second wave of it...which was deadlier then the first and AFAIK killed the majority of people who are in the final casualty totals for that flu pandemic.

These people literally cannot learn from history. Scared about the economy? Sure, we all are...but sacrificing hundreds of thousands of people is NOT the way.

Just like those spring breakers these people are about to be a bunch of new vectors for infection. Prepare for your numbers to spike harder and the quarantine measures to last EVEN longer.

Saw a video interview with some....guess what red hat they were wearing?

[Maark Abbott]

Tsundoku, on 16 April 2020 - 09:11 AM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 16 April 2020 - 07:50 AM, said:

So much so that it's tempting to stop at the practice space on the way home from shopping and get my bits out, but... Agh, it's maddening.

Fight that urge Maark - especially if the practice space is within 100' of a school, like that nice judge said.

Nah it's near the town centre but it's also a non essential trip so... eh, it just sucks all in all.

Quick, ever seen a certain film in a certain mall with certain living dead? That kinda reminds me of that photo of the MAGA hats.

[QuickTidal]

Maark Abbott, on 16 April 2020 - 11:57 AM, said:

Quick, ever seen a certain film in a certain mall with certain living dead? That kinda reminds me of that photo of the MAGA hats.

Agreed.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

QuickTidal, on 16 April 2020 - 11:47 AM, said:

People in certain US States are now out in force protesting social distancing/quarantine measures...fucking hell, apparently nearly 30k infected yesterday means NOTHING to these fucking idiots.

You wanna know how it's going to get worse? Just like the 1918 Spanish Flu....just when people got sick of staying inside and went out to try to return to normalcy when they thought the flu had abated enough...that shit caused the second wave of it...which was deadlier then the first and AFAIK killed the majority of people who are in the final casualty totals for that flu pandemic.

These people literally cannot learn from history. Scared about the economy? Sure, we all are...but sacrificing hundreds of thousands of people is NOT the way.

Just like those spring breakers these people are about to be a bunch of new vectors for infection. Prepare for your numbers to spike harder and the quarantine measures to last EVEN longer.

Saw a video interview with some....guess what red hat they were wearing?

Agreed. But, making protesting illegal is a surefire way to get more Americans protesting. They should've left it to sputter out.

https://www.wral.com...ivity/19057352/


Also:
https://twitter.com/...105064364089345

This post has been edited by Whisperzzzzzzz: 16 April 2020 - 12:58 PM

[QuickTidal]

Whisperzzzzzzz, on 16 April 2020 - 12:55 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 16 April 2020 - 11:47 AM, said:

People in certain US States are now out in force protesting social distancing/quarantine measures...fucking hell, apparently nearly 30k infected yesterday means NOTHING to these fucking idiots.

You wanna know how it's going to get worse? Just like the 1918 Spanish Flu....just when people got sick of staying inside and went out to try to return to normalcy when they thought the flu had abated enough...that shit caused the second wave of it...which was deadlier then the first and AFAIK killed the majority of people who are in the final casualty totals for that flu pandemic.

These people literally cannot learn from history. Scared about the economy? Sure, we all are...but sacrificing hundreds of thousands of people is NOT the way.

Just like those spring breakers these people are about to be a bunch of new vectors for infection. Prepare for your numbers to spike harder and the quarantine measures to last EVEN longer.

Saw a video interview with some....guess what red hat they were wearing?

Agreed. But, making protesting illegal is a surefire way to get more Americans protesting. They should've left it to sputter out.

https://www.wral.com...ivity/19057352/

No. Fuck their selfish sense of personal freedman during a goddamned pandemic. Can't follow the rules so that everyone can stay safe and...you know...ALIVE?...fucking you get charged. Sorry, not sorry.

Protesting right now is not essential. It's 100% self-serving assholery.

[amphibian]

Many of these people do not believe the effects of the pandemic are as bad as the media and other people are telling them it is. There's a ton of "show me the bodies", "This is all China's fault", "the economy needs us to go back to work and sacrifice like our brave forbears did", and "people are just lying to get more things to hoard".

It's a shockingly toxic brew of disbelief and selfishness.

I'm now wondering if the Vietnam war ended up killing or wounding the populace in a way that left the wealthiest and most selfish (those who didn't have to go to war in Vietnam) generally in charge and this is what we get as a result. It's that much of a generational thing here.

[QuickTidal]

amphibian, on 16 April 2020 - 03:12 PM, said:

Many of these people do not believe the effects of the pandemic are as bad as the media and other people are telling them it is. There's a ton of "show me the bodies", "This is all China's fault", "the economy needs us to go back to work and sacrifice like our brave forbears did", and "people are just lying to get more things to hoard".

It's a shockingly toxic brew of disbelief and selfishness.

Indeed.

The whole "there are no people in the hospitals! (based off the empty parking lots)"...meanwhile that's because there are no friggin' visitors during a pandemic...do they think that people who are sick drove themselves to the hospital, parked and went in? Or do they think that the employees of a hospital fill up the lot with their cars...

It's like bargain basement stupidity that I can't even believe these people are walking upright.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 16 April 2020 - 03:24 PM

[Mentalist]

QuickTidal, on 16 April 2020 - 02:13 PM, said:

Whisperzzzzzzz, on 16 April 2020 - 12:55 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 16 April 2020 - 11:47 AM, said:

People in certain US States are now out in force protesting social distancing/quarantine measures...fucking hell, apparently nearly 30k infected yesterday means NOTHING to these fucking idiots.

You wanna know how it's going to get worse? Just like the 1918 Spanish Flu....just when people got sick of staying inside and went out to try to return to normalcy when they thought the flu had abated enough...that shit caused the second wave of it...which was deadlier then the first and AFAIK killed the majority of people who are in the final casualty totals for that flu pandemic.

These people literally cannot learn from history. Scared about the economy? Sure, we all are...but sacrificing hundreds of thousands of people is NOT the way.

Just like those spring breakers these people are about to be a bunch of new vectors for infection. Prepare for your numbers to spike harder and the quarantine measures to last EVEN longer.

Saw a video interview with some....guess what red hat they were wearing?

Agreed. But, making protesting illegal is a surefire way to get more Americans protesting. They should've left it to sputter out.

https://www.wral.com...ivity/19057352/

No. Fuck their selfish sense of personal freedman during a goddamned pandemic. Can't follow the rules so that everyone can stay safe and...you know...ALIVE?...fucking you get charged. Sorry, not sorry.

Protesting right now is not essential. It's 100% self-serving assholery.

There's entire generations that were brought up to fear the "common good" thinking as being "communism".

It's dumb, and it feels like it goes against common sense, but that's only if you start with the basic premise that there's a sense of everyone being responsible for doing their part for the common well-being.

And the American dream is the complete opposite of that since it's basically " if everyone does their best to look out for themselves, the markets will automagically create greatest benefit for everyone"

Good luck making people comprehend they are wrong.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 16 April 2020 - 04:06 PM

[Puck]

Azath Vitr (D, on 15 April 2020 - 09:33 PM, said:

'German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the country's lockdown can begin to lift, after reaching a "fragile interim success."

[...] Schools, which have been closed across the country have been closed since mid-March, are now slated to start reopening on May 4.

Hairdressers and barbers will also be allowed to open their doors on May 4, provided they have protective measures in place.

[...] Some stores will be permitted to open next week, if they implement hygiene precautions. Only shops that are up to 800 square meters (8611.13 square feet) will be allowed to re-open at that time. Car dealerships, bike shops, and bookstores are allowed to re-open, no matter their size'

https://www.npr.org/...ncing-continues

Wonder if people will be more reluctant to take public transport or walk / cycle, and consequently purchase more cars. (Self-driving taxis could conceivably clean themselves between passengers.) This would also ameliorate one of the main drawbacks to robotics ETFs at present (since car manufacturing has been one of the main applications).

It's both better and worse than it sounds. Most German states aren't following the official suggestion of slowly reopening schools on May 4th but are beginning to reopen them next week and the week after that. Thought for now it's only for those students that have finals looming over them in May.

Which stores can or cannot reopen is a huge back and forth right now with the store than are over 800 sqm saying they'll either just only open that much space in the store or saying that the bigger the store, the more space there is to avoid each other, when the real goal is to simply keep people away from the shopping areas as much as possible still.

We're also now asked to wear masks in public though it's voluntary.

There will definitely be a noticeable decline in car sales, they already can tell as much. People are keeping their money close and cars are expensive. About public transport... Well, I'm supposed to go back to work on May 4th, and I need to take public transport, so we'll see. I'd rather stay home a bit longer and safe the money for the monthly bus fare, but oh well... I can imagine that if enough people go back to work there will be more busses and trains running to allow for keeping the distance. Right now, there are less but that's because the amount of people taking public transport has gone down by 80%.

Cause, on 15 April 2020 - 09:34 PM, said:

Primateus, on 15 April 2020 - 09:13 PM, said:

I've seen speculation that social distancing may have to continue until 2022 if no vaccine is found.

Honestly it might be possible that as mentioned above far more people have been exposed than we realize. Hopefully it’s true. Otherwise I just don’t see us maintaining this quarantine for that long. Won’t be any restaurant, bar, gym left standing by that point.

When this was early stage I actually thought it might be good to get infected on purpose and get it over with before hospitals got overwhelmed. I know wonder if the best strategy wouldn’t be to ramp up ventilators, and other necessary treatment medicines, gear etc and than for example using the us as the model purposefully let it ran rampant one state at a time, with hopefully at least enough ability to treat people, before moving to the next state with all the doctors and equipment and repeating.

The Spanish flu killed maybe 50 million but probably infected 500 million. It went away when there was no one left who had never had it.

The problem with stocking up on ventilators and and meds is that you need the people to actually handle them (you need one ICU nurse per two to three ICU patients, one to one for patients on ventilators, and you can't just put any nurse to the task) AND the people to produce them. Most of the meds in the western world comes from China and India, and while China is starting up production again, India is in deep shit right now. Also, if you go state by state, that means you'd have every other state on lockdown for months and months. That'S all not even mentioning the potential loss of life as each state'S hospitals become overwhelmed one after the other. Not possible. Not in any sane country, anyway.