[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 08 July 2024 - 05:08 PM, said:

Cause, on 01 July 2024 - 10:06 PM, said:

Not implying Sunak and Macron were working together just that I find it interesting that both governments called elections to presumably strengthen their hands and the opposite is happening.

If Macrons goal was to let the right wing take power so they could fail and then lose at the next election cycle why call the election early as opposed to letting it happen later?
/?

He called the election precisely to keep the right from getting in. If they waited until 2029, their support would've continued swelling, disappointed with domestic policy.

The EP elections showed they were gaining momentum, but weren't quite there yet in terms of critical mass. So he acted to have the elections now, before they hit it, while he could make a deal with the leftist block to cooperate.

Considering Macron's own term is up before the next parliamentary election, and he can't run again, it's a shockingly farsighted move.

... and now it will be the "far-left" party/parties (they keep making new ones over there) that gets blamed, rather than Macron's "pro-business" centrists... though IDK exactly why you think this will result in the far right's support decreasing by 2029 (though I guess that's probably a typo?). Economic policy quasi-overlap with the far left? Generalized populism?

[amphibian]

HoosierDaddy, on 08 July 2024 - 04:36 PM, said:

What's he really want to be doing? I mean, I understand progressives are bad for his business because you know, nationalized healthcare. What's he want to do besides try and be his own petty tyrant with his guns?

These loners who think their small arsenal is somehow going to protect them from organized gangs/proto-feudal lords are hilarious.

His vision - the limited amount I got before I stopped talking with him - was indeed about "freedom" and being a petty tyrant to those he could. There was some talk about those who are bottom feeding, the unemployed, and the paying of taxes for purposes he didn't sign up for.

[Maark Abbott]

Macros, on 08 July 2024 - 09:07 AM, said:

People do know that the National Rally were founded by former waffen SS right?

Why would anyone vote for them???

I mean, flagbangers here will harp on about blitz spirit and how their grandad didn't die fighting 'Itler in the war for the FORRUNS to take over, and then vote for the UK nazi party, and fail to see the irony in that.. So I wouldn't put any level of stupidity past far right voters at all.

[Macros]

What exactly are these fuck nuts protesting and rioting about in England?

[worry]

The Southport stabbings a few days ago were committed by a non-white teenager, so England's neo-Nazis are trying to turn it into a race war -- and they started by hijacking the vigil for the victims.

[Tiste Simeon]

Basically what Worry said. They latched onto a bunch of right wing lies and decided to trash the place in response.

[Macros]

Yea gods I hate people sometimes

[Lady Bliss]

Macros, on 02 August 2024 - 02:24 PM, said:

Yea gods I hate people sometimes

Only sometimes?

[Maark Abbott]

worry, on 02 August 2024 - 01:25 PM, said:

The Southport stabbings a few days ago were committed by a non-white teenager, so England's neo-Nazis are trying to turn it into a race war -- and they started by hijacking the vigil for the victims.

This is par for the course with English fascists. The spread of the riots (I won't call them protests at all) has been quite worrisome, and very disheartening.

[worry]

Yeah, it's pretty gross and they're terrorizing a lot of people.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

worry, on 05 August 2024 - 01:09 PM, said:

Yeah, it's pretty gross and they're terrorizing a lot of people.

Will it backfire politically? Or will people have forgotten about it by the next elections?...

[worry]

Both? I guess if January 6 is any indication. But politics is only part of the equation, since elections are only relevant as long as the bulwark (or pretense) of a social contract persists. Fascists are willing to break anything and everything, including that, to get their way. Strong minority factions like these -- which we at least think of as 'small but loud' -- can still certainly pose a real threat to large but weak or reluctant majorities. And it's not necessarily apparent that our governments are willing and/or able to defend themselves (or us) from this threat outside of traditional politics (like elections), however necessary it might become. I guess it's our good fortune to see if the dam holds.

[Maark Abbott]

Azath Vitr (D, on 05 August 2024 - 03:03 PM, said:

worry, on 05 August 2024 - 01:09 PM, said:

Yeah, it's pretty gross and they're terrorizing a lot of people.

Will it backfire politically? Or will people have forgotten about it by the next elections?...

I doubt it, the anti-migrant rhetoric is where the votes are at these days.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Sometimes it can be heartening to get a reality check from the British public. [...] A reassuring YouGov poll published yesterday (6 August) revealed an overwhelming majority – 85 per cent – of people oppose the unrest we have seen while just 7 per cent support the violence. Most people see through the sickening argument made by those encouraging the riots

Spoiler

that this has something to do with avenging the killing of three little girls in Southport over a week ago – less than half think the violence is anything to do with the attack.

The idea that the mobs trashing streets, burning libraries, attacking migrant hotels, looting shops and hurling bricks at police are in some way channelling universal sentiment that represents "real people" (as though there is something less real about the shop-owners, or police officers, or indeed migrants) is comprehensively rejected. Just one in eight people think the rioters are somehow representative of most Britons – a smaller proportion than those who voted for Reform in the election a month ago. Interestingly, while Reform voters are much more likely than voters of other parties to be sympathetic, even they condemn the violence by a huge majority.

Conservatives don't know what to say about the far-right riots - New Statesman

... and not just a majority of people, but a majority of voters---even "Reform" voters.

Quote

Is cocaine driving the British riots?

The connection between hard drugs and far-right aggro has become a trope of British life. [...] There is also plenty of overlap with that other great vector of British angst: football.

Spoiler

Robinson has made no secret about recruiting existing football firms as his foot soldiers, and on the terraces coke use is approaching omnipresence. [...]

But what's less understood is how it seems to harmonise with the British psyche – perhaps more so than any other nation on Earth. Because while cocaine is taken everywhere from Aarhus to Auckland, in Britain, it's become part of the culture. [...] there have even been stories about trace levels in the London water supply. Most of the time, this is all fairly innocuous – just another symptom of a "drug native" society. But when tensions between communities are simmering, it can ignite like a bottle of Ronsonol on a cheap barbecue.

Is cocaine driving the British riots? - New Statesman

Wow. A little cocaine once a month or so probably isn't all that bad, but it seems like Britain's got a major problem... wonder if taking cocaine makes people more likely to vote.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 07 August 2024 - 02:05 PM

[Cause]

Well I dont want to count my chickens before they hatch but I was very wrong. Getting rid of Biden seems to have been the right move, Biden haters have say they will vote for Harris, Double Haters seem to be voting for Harris but more thatn that it seems that Harris is also motivating people to vote for her on her own merits. Tim Waltz is doing well. Momentum has shifted and Harris has now overtaken Trump and is growing her lead with 77 days to go until election day. Even minor republicans have endorsed her.

More than that Trump has never been Trumpier. Republicans are begging him in private (according to multiple sources) but also in op-eds and live on TV to stop the personal attacks, be more disciplined and to speak about policy. He cant do it. He has double downed on the fact that Harris is Nasty, too stupid to be president and remarkably he will even repeat that she only recently became black if given the chance. I dont listen to his entire rallies or his podcasts with Elon Musk but he is slurring his words, talking about Hannibal Lector (for reasons unknown), whining about how the polls are fake (this again), berating the popular governor of Georgia where he badly needs any support he can get to win the state if he is to win the presidency. He is simply rambling about anything about what he really plans to do to make America great again.

So I dont know how he won the first time (people just really hate Hillary I guess), I dont know how it was a tight race the second time and I dont know how he was leading Joe Biden the 3rd time (Id have voted for a corpse over Trump) but hopeful the momentum will last.

So my question isn't if he loses will he say the election was stolen, He Will! Rather if he loses will republicans have a reckoning and realize they need to change things up and maybe clean house of the crazy positions and just as critically the crazies. Or will they double down. Will we see them close ranks even more and go the route of fake electors and activist judges even more. Will they turn back to a Desantis like character trying to be more trump but with an iota of efficientcy or will they instead look for a Mitch Mconnel, Kevin Mcacarthy, Liz Chaney or Adam Kizingers. All now Republican pariahs to one degree or another but who were once seen as the the torchbearers of what it meant to be a republcan.

The electoral college, gerrymandering, the Senate all to one degree or another favor the republican minority but how much longer can they champion making abortion illegal when the majority of America but crucially even a majority of Republicans now favor some abortion. This is just one of the many issues that the republican party is now at odds with the entire elctorate about. Can they survive much longer without a reset. Will another Trump setbavk finally be enough pain to signal that change is necessary?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 19 August 2024 - 09:33 PM, said:

Well I dont want to count my chickens before they hatch but I was very wrong. Getting rid of Biden seems to have been the right move, Biden haters have say they will vote for Harris, Double Haters seem to be voting for Harris but more thatn that it seems that Harris is also motivating people to vote for her on her own merits. Tim Waltz is doing well. Momentum has shifted and Harris has now overtaken Trump and is growing her lead with 77 days to go until election day. Even minor republicans have endorsed her.

More than that Trump has never been Trumpier. Republicans are begging him in private (according to multiple sources) but also in op-eds and live on TV to stop the personal attacks, be more disciplined and to speak about policy. He cant do it. He has double downed on the fact that Harris is Nasty, too stupid to be president and remarkably he will even repeat that she only recently became black if given the chance. I dont listen to his entire rallies or his podcasts with Elon Musk but he is slurring his words, talking about Hannibal Lector (for reasons unknown), whining about how the polls are fake (this again), berating the popular governor of Georgia where he badly needs any support he can get to win the state if he is to win the presidency. He is simply rambling about anything about what he really plans to do to make America great again.

So I dont know how he won the first time (people just really hate Hillary I guess), I dont know how it was a tight race the second time and I dont know how he was leading Joe Biden the 3rd time (Id have voted for a corpse over Trump) but hopeful the momentum will last.

So my question isn't if he loses will he say the election was stolen, He Will! Rather if he loses will republicans have a reckoning and realize they need to change things up and maybe clean house of the crazy positions and just as critically the crazies. Or will they double down. Will we see them close ranks even more and go the route of fake electors and activist judges even more. Will they turn back to a Desantis like character trying to be more trump but with an iota of efficientcy or will they instead look for a Mitch Mconnel, Kevin Mcacarthy, Liz Chaney or Adam Kizingers. All now Republican pariahs to one degree or another but who were once seen as the the torchbearers of what it meant to be a republcan.

The electoral college, gerrymandering, the Senate all to one degree or another favor the republican minority but how much longer can they champion making abortion illegal when the majority of America but crucially even a majority of Republicans now favor some abortion. This is just one of the many issues that the republican party is now at odds with the entire elctorate about. Can they survive much longer without a reset. Will another Trump setbavk finally be enough pain to signal that change is necessary?

And now Trump's sharing shitty AI deepfake images and satirical news about Taylor Swift endorsing him with the caption "I accept".

But last I checked Harris's lead was still within the margin of error... still, she's doing much better than Biden. Not just by the polls, but by other metrics like number of volunteers, rate of donations, etc.

There's also the issue of whether his networks of minions will enable him to steal the election successfully this time:

'A different level than 2020': Trump's plan to steal election is taking shape | The Guardian

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 August 2024 - 09:54 PM

[Cause]

I think the key is that almost all polls had democrats behind and now they all have Kamala equal or ahead. Regardless of the std deviation of the polls the momentum has clearly shifted. It’s still tighter than it should be.

[worry]

How do poll aggregators account for margins of error in their models? That has to be part of the 'art' element to it that differentiates one model from another, right?