Russian losses are now ticking over 1,000 a day, a reflection of both increased activity along multiple fronts, and increasingly poor protection in carrying out those attacks.
The Russians are now deploying BMP-2 and even BMP-1 "IFVs", although calling them that is fairly generous. The former dates from 1980 and is poorly-armoured against modern drones and artillery, though it has a reasonable anti-personnel machine gun. The BMP-1 dates from 1966 and is frankly dogshit. Both IFVs are not only badly suited to modern combat conditions, but Russia insists on rushing them forwards with men clinging to the outer hull, which is a suboptimal placement. Either the IFVs are full up inside or the soldiers are so scared of drones that they want the option to dismount quickly and run away if they see/hear incoming fire (maybe 2 times in 10 they will actually hear incoming fire and be able to run away).
On the Vovchansk front there aren't enough BMPs to go around, so they keep sending either one alone or a small group forwards with dismounted infantry following or alongside it. This is a terrible idea and keeps resulting in horrendous casualties.
Ukraine has now deployed the 30th Mechanized Brigade and 82nd Brigade to retake Vovchansk, and they are reporting mass Russian charges across the open. The battles are tough because neither side has really had time to dig in, so there's less fighting around hardpoints and more just shooting at one another from buildings and treelines. Russia has managed to get some aviation back into the fight, deploying glide bombs at a reasonable rate, but without hardpoints to fire them at (the fronts are shifting too quickly) they're not as effective as they have been. Lobbing glide bombs at roughly where you think the enemy are instead of buildings where you know they are is a bit of waste of time, but the psychological impact remains severe. Both Ukraine and Russia seem to lack AA in the immediate area, but that's also allowing both Ukrainian and Russian planes to launch glide bombs against one another (on the ground, not in the air, that would be futile), although the effectiveness seems questionable.
The main reason for the Ukrainian advance is that they spotted the Russians starting to dig trenchlines and fortify the area, and Ukraine has decided to deny them the opportunity. Russian engineering corps working on the new lines are coming under direct fire.
The new Russian formations attacking around Vovchansk seem to mostly be new formations with little combat experience. Russia has belated realised this was a mistake and has rotated in reinforcements from the 155 Marine Brigade, 810 Marine Brigade and 9th Mechanized Brigade. Weirdly, they also deployed a single assault battalion from 83rd Brigade, which was insufficient and got wiped out, so sent in the other half, which was also insufficient and suffered casualties. These troops seem pissed off as they are supposed to train the new troops whilst on the front line in an actively shifting combat environment. Unsurprisingly this is not going well.
Ukraine is advancing around Vovchansk and on the western side of the Kharkiv front, but after initial rapid (ish) gains have now slowed as Russian resistance stiffens. Liberating Vovchansk now appears possible, and the Russians are trying to build fortified positions behind the town as a fallback position, but morale seems to be poor as this is literally so close to the Russian border you can almost see it, and the troops are asking why they just don't fall back to Belgorod Oblast.
Meanwhile, the Azovprodukt fuel storage terminal in Azov has been destroyed. There was another heavy raid on Crimea, multiple AAs engaged and destroyed, though smaller units from the sound of it, no more S-300s/400s.
Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front are warning of a possible Ukrainian offensive. Ukraine has deployed Baba Yagas to remote-mine the reinforcement routes leading from the Russian front to resupply and reinforcement areas around Robotyne. Ukrainian artillery, glide bombs and drones have been targeting Russian hard points (fortified strongholds) with a view to degrading Russian defensive capabilities, maybe more efficiently than they did last year (Ukraine seems to have been experimenting with drone-launched mine clearance operations to overcome the problem they faced last year, but the effectiveness remains in question). Experts seem doubtful that Ukraine has enough manpower to launch a counter-offensive - or, on this axis, resume from last year - this summer at all, but if the Russians are going to be panicked by the thought they might, okay.
This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 June 2024 - 06:14 PM