[Mentalist]

Most realistic scenario I can envision would be a UA counteroffer to swap the Donetsk fortress belt for the bulk of the Surovikin Line in the S (including Enerhodar and the ZNPP), so that UAF (and any Western troops that might get stationed there) have an easy road to Crimea, to account for the vulnerability in the E.
That sort of a stalemate is the only way I can envision a viable Cold War2 scenario emerging out of all this.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 18 August 2025 - 10:55 PM

[Werthead]

Several Russian regions reporting fuel shortages. In Primosky Krai there are kilometres-long car queues for refuelling, whilst in Zabaikalsky fuel can only be bought with special coupons. There's a fuel run in Crimea, with petrol stations running low, but also some fear from people about going to the pumps in case there's a drone strike.

Lavrov has suggested that a Ukrainian security assistance force with NATO involvement could be palatable if other countries also joined in, such as China.

A Russian S-300 AA battery has been eliminated near Zaporizhzhia after it was brought dangerously close to the front.

An expensive Russia Kasta-2E2 radar system was destroyed in Crimea.

Budapest has been floated as a Zelensky-Putin meeting place by the Trump team, but Donald Tusk has suggested that a "second Budapest memorandum" might be not a good idea. "Maybe I'm superstitious."

Russian forces have advanced into the centre of Zarichne on the Lyman front but met heavy Ukrainian resistance from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, which drove the Russians back in disarray. The town has not been fully liberated, and Russian forces remain embedded in the outskirts.

The Azov Brigade and the 92nd Mechanized Brigade are continuing to clear Russian forces on the north-east Pokrovsk front, rolling them back past their start positions.

The Ukrainian military has donated EW systems to Ukrainian farmers in Kherson. They use the EW systems to down the drones, rewire their control systems and then send them "home." Apparently several Russian positions were eliminated after being confused at seeing their own drones flying back towards them. The distances involved on this front and having to fly over the wide Dnipro mouth make using fibre-optic drones less viable.

Russian Z-bloggers discussing the economic situation in Russia, believing that creative measures taken by the central bank will run out of road in the autumn, or early 2026 at the latest. They believe several major enterprises are in "a pre-bankruptcy state."

Ukrainian news sources are suggesting that Trump's relatively warm welcome to Zelensky may have been helped by a special gift: a golf putter made by Kostiantyn Kartavtsev, a Ukrainian soldier who lose a leg whilst rescuing a comrade from the battlefield early in the invasion. He took up golf afterwards to help with his rehabilitation. The putter is engraved with the words "Let's putt peace together!" Trump then looked up some videos of Kostiantyn and congratulated him on having a good swing.

[Mentalist]

Z-heads are panicking that UAF started launching its new Flamingo cruise missiles.
we'll have to see if anything actually comes from this.

[Werthead]

The Russians undertook a limited advance in Sumy, but appear now to have been beaten back again. Russian troops in Sumy are remaining on the defensive as troops are transferred from Kursk behind them to Zaporizhzhia for a new offensive push.

Ukraine has recaptured six settlements on the Pokrovsk front, including rolling back last week's breakthrough and also retaking some areas elsewhere on the front, to Russian commentators' surprise. Although Russia seems to still be advancing overall in Donetsk, it's a very broken-up front and Ukraine has regained the initiative in several areas, on a limited scale.

Trump seems to be intimating he may remove any restrictions on Ukraine using US weapons to strike targets on Russian soil, and may release new weapons to them. Take with a pinch of salt for now.

The destruction of the Novoshakhtinsk refinery storage yards in Rostov seem to be had an almost immediate, negative impact on Russian fuel prices.

Ukraine continues to strike Russian rail infrastructure across multiple oblasts, in both captured Ukrainian territory and on Russian soil.

The Ukrainian Flamingo missile is in full production, currently 1 a day rolling off the lines, with 7 a day being the target for the start of October. The missile has still not been fired in anger (as far as we know).

A drone has flown into Polish airspace and crashed in the town of Osiny, 110km from the Ukrainian border, damaging three buildings. It appears to be a Shahed. Astonishingly, almost no mainstream media coverage.

Some Ukrainian sources saying that Ukraine has initiated a major counteroffensive operation out of Pokrovsk, attacking towards Shevchenko (again). Unclear on the scale of the operation.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 August 2025 - 10:22 PM

[Werthead]

Take with a grain of salt, but rumours swirling of a coup in Moscow. There's always rumours of a coup in Moscow, but this is slightly louder than previous ones, and maybe louder than any since Prigozhin's death drive on Moscow. A lot of anger about Putin apparently not doubling down on Trump's willingness to end the war on terms favourable to Moscow, and concerns that economic pressure may make future or even current gains unravel on the battlefield. The threat seems to be from within the military rather than the political spectrum (where, if anything, Putin often gets criticised - anonymously - for being too soft on the war).

Again, take with an extreme lump of salt. I would be surprised if this elevated above background grumbling.

Russian Telegram analysis of Ukraine's renewed campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine's prior campaign in 2023-24 targeted a wide variety of oil facilities and hit them inefficiently, shutting down one plant for a few days to a couple of weeks but then it would be repaired, whilst another was hit, and then another different one. This had an impact in aggregate but it allowed Russia to switch between facilities and avoid having to invest in expensive air defence for individual refineries.

The renewed campaign is different, targeting the largest oil refineries and hitting them two, three, five, seven times in sequence in a week or fortnight, each time targeting different parts of the facility. In particular, they are targeting components and subsystems that are very hard to replace due to sanctions, even if they are less likely to result in a spectacular explosion that destroys or disables the whole facility (very difficult to achieve). With Russia unable to source spares for components from the likes of Shell, that makes it much harder to repair the facility, resulting in a low-key-looking, innocuous-looking small explosion that disables the facility for weeks or months, and can usually only be overcome with inferior Chinese-made replacement parts. Catalysts in particular are a huge problem as Russia effectively ran out of its Western-made catalysts last year, and the time between ordering Chinese replacements and them arriving is 12+ months. And of course they can be hit again immediately.

Ukraine is also hitting oil export terminals, making it very hard to get oil out of the country by sea (particularly on the Black Sea, but Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg-area terminals have been hit as well, and even facilities near Murmansk on the Arctic), and it's longer-ranged drones are also hitting facilities that could not be reached with 2023-era drones, and what had been lured into thinking they were safe and had taken no precautions in investing in air defences. Flamingo could hit targets as far away as Omsk, potentially shutting down most production and refining in the western third or so of the country (where the bulk of production, refining and storage is concentrated, because that's where the bulk of the population is).

The current estimate is that Ukraine's 2025 refinery-hitting campaign has caused as much economic damage to Russia in two months as the previous campaign did in eight to twelve, and with there not being enough air defences to go around, it's unclear what can be done to stop the campaign being much more effective.

The Novoshakhtinsk refinery is still burning after three days. Ukrainian drones have also repeatedly hit the Druzhba pipeline, rendering it nonfunctional for the third time in a fortnight. There is no fuel available at pumps in Yalta and several other parts of Crimea.

Ukraine's counteroffensive on the SW Pokrovsk front has widened into a successful operation, with Russian lines behind the former salient collapsing. This area is in front of the Mokri River and the Russians had been defending by attacking rather than stopping and digging in, due to manpower limitations. Now they're on the defensive against some of Ukraine's best units and have no lines to fall back on short of the river. In the last 24 hours Ukraine has liberated Zelenyi Hai and Tolstoi. Ukraine has also liberated Myrne, on the southern edge of the salient Russia formed by last week's incursion; this is significant as if Ukraine can outflank on that front, they could retake a lot of land around the salient and relieve pressure on Pokrovsk.

China has agreed to provide peacekeeping troops to a post-war Ukrainian border, but only under a UN mandate.

A Russian soldier has crossed the border into Norway, surrendered to Norwegian authorities and claimed asylum.

Ukraine has reduced Russian total oil refinery output by 12% in three weeks. That's ridiculous.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 August 2025 - 11:09 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched an attack on Kotlyne, at the SW end of the Pokrovsk front. This settlement has exchanged hands several times, with Ukraine retaking it earlier this year, but Russia getting a foothold back in. Ukraine has been hitting the industrial zones where Russian forces have taken cover.

Ukraine claims to have made its "Long Neptune" cruise missile operational. The missile is a variant of its Neptune anti-ship missile (the one used to sink the Moskva). The missile has a longer range and heavier payload, but is almost as fast and has been modified for ground and sea targets. Long Neptune has apparently already been used in combat, unlike Flamingo, but it's unclear where or when.

Ukraine's recent targets have included Russian command centres, destroying forward headquarters in Soledar and Korenevo, amongst others. 

Ukraine has retaken Novomykhailivka on the Donetsk front. Russian forces on this front have been depleted with a lack of reserves, with allocated reinforcements in some cases diverted to Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, allowing Ukraine to retake some territory.

Ukrainian forces have engaged Russian forces along the Zaporizhzhia front, where Zelensky has suggested Russia is massing for a large-scale offensive. Ukrainian aircraft destroyed a Russian operating position in Stepnohirsk with a 500-pound JDAM-ER, suggesting that Russian anti-air cover remains degraded.

Ukrainian drones have destroyed oil terminal infrastructure in Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg. The Suzran Oil Refinery was also hit, with some reports of 20 drone strikes in rapid succession (others suggestion 20 explosions, originating from a much smaller number of drones). The Novoshakhtinsk refinery fire is entering its fifth day, with the firefighters reporting a lack of not just chemical retardant, but also basic water supplies.

The US is replenishing Ukraine's supply of ERAM missiles, sending 3,350 over the next several weeks.

All Russian gasoline sales in Kurilsky District (on the Kuril Islands) have been halted, sparking widespread anger.

Finland is beginning the trial of the captain of the oil tanker Eagle S, accused of damaging power and communications cables in the Gulf of Finland.

The residents of Donetsk City in occupied Donetsk Oblast have staged a major protest about the lack of clean water in the city. They have appealed to Putin directly to sort out the city's water supply problem, which has been ongoing for substantial amounts of time. There have been irregular delivers by truck from Rostov to Donetsk, but not enough to cover everyone's needs.

Volodymyr Mykolaienko, the former mayor of Kherson City who was arrested after Russia captured the city (and subsequently lost it), has returned to Ukraine in a prisoner swap.

Not sure what's going on around Pokrovsk, the Russian positions suddenly seem very shaky. Ukraine has launched an armored assault using Bradleys from Myrnohrad eastwards into the southern end of the main salient reaching NW and has achieved some successes, clearing multiple treelines and pushing Russian forces back hundreds of metres (at least), despite Russian drones operating in the area.

Updated assessment that Russia has lost 17% of its refining capacity since the start of the campaign.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 25 August 2025 - 09:53 PM

[Mentalist]

Been dead tired, due to helping out with Independence Day festivities.

my input on the above:

1) 17% refinining capacity is sum total of all refining capacity of the refineries hit. Not all of them were knocked out totally, nor were they all out simultaneously. There's definitely a growing deficit in the outlying areas both Crimea and the Far East), but we're not into "snowball effect cascading crisis" territory yet, so the hits need to continue. Worth noting that the UAF has been targetting specifically the Volga region refining cluster (2 in Samara Oblast, as well as Saratov, Volgograd, and refineries in the South (Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast) So there's a clear intention to create a local shortage in the regions in closest proximity to the frontlines.
-Also, Novoshakhinsk refinery fire burned out after 4 days. majority of the storage tanks on the grounds burned out.

2) re: Ukrainian counterattacks.
-on Aug 24th (Independence Day) Syrsky reported regaining 3 settlements: Novomykhailivka (Lyman axis), Volodymirivka (was generally considered gray zone just NE of the Dobropillya "breakthrough" salient), and Zelenyj Hay (S Donetsk axis, next to the border w/ Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast). There's also some videos of UAF raids and prisoners being taken in Myrne and Malynivka (NE of Myrnohrad, along the Myrnohrad- Konstyantynivka road), with Z-heads whining that the 5th Donetsk Brigade falsely reported the area to be secure up to Novoekonomichne (NE suburb of Myrnohrad), and so now it turns out the Ukrainians can freeely operate in what was continued to be "relatively secure rear positions". It's still too early to say if this is something more than mere local tactical counterstrikes. It's relatively safe to say that the "BIIIIIG summer offensive" is gradually losing momentum, as the orcs are running out of capable infantry to send into the suicidal 2-man team infiltration missions; but it's still premature to say the offensive is "over".

3) Going back to the petro-strikes- UAF also hit the LNG export terminals at Ust-Luga, destroying the primary catalist for LNG processing. This should put a temporary hold on Muscovite LNG export from the Baltic ports. Hungary's getting really upset at the fact that UAF, and specifically the Unmanned systems Corps (headed by one Robert "Magyar" Brody, a Transcarpathian ethnic Magyar) has been systematically hitting the pumping stations along the "Druzhba" pipeline, that goes into Belarus and then thru UA into Hungary and Slovakia. The situation's getting a bit heated, as Hungary is demanding that UA should worry about its "energy security", while flatly ignoring the fact the EU's been telling them to diversify basically since the war started. Of course, there's also the suggestion that muscovites have a sizeable stake in the operation of the Magyar and Slovak refineries, that were built during the Cold War to process Muscovite oil, so there's that wrinkle.


4) UA is having a bunch of foreign dignitaries around Independence day. Zelensky announced in total pledges from allies should amount to the capacity of 1 blillion per month to buy US ammo and weapon systems. The Czechs are still promising 800k shells this year, although artillery is increasingly playing second fiddle to drones.

5) Loads of buzz around Ukrainian cruise missiles that can deliver significan payloads farther than what current Western kit allows; We're yet to see these in action, so not much point to dwell on them now.

6) trump continues to send mixed signals about shit. The discourse is still around "security guarantees" for UA that Moscow will *supposedly* agree with. At the same time, Lavrov & co are making it pretty clear they don't think there's been any agreement from putler to meet with zelensky personally, which is what trump is pushing for. His response? "Give it 2-3 weeks, then I'll see".

So basically, war as usual. It remains to be seen if the UAF strikes will cascade into any major crisis for the orcs, but we haven't seen one yet, despite the abysmal budget deficit, talks of increasing taxes, and a lot of other circumstantial indicators that things are gradually coming off the rails. We aren't seeing too many indications that they are willing to abandon their attacking plans, however, and in some places (like the outskirts of Kup'yans'sk), the situation is gradually getting concerning, moreso than in Sumy or Donbas.

[Werthead]

Russian forces have conducted another breakthrough advance, this time north of Kupyansk where they crossed the Oskil. Ukrainian forces are counter-attacking, with heavy combat. Ukrainian armour and IFVs engaging Russian forces at pointblank range. The Russian forces are trying to widen their bridgehead across the river but are under heavy drone attack. Unclear how the general direction of fighting is going; Russia being able to cross the river is a tactical achievement which could have strategic implications, but only if they hold it. If Ukraine snips off the bridgehead, a lot of Russians are going to be killed or captured. The situation remains very fluid.

The fire at the Novoshakhtinsk facility has burned out after five days. The storage area of the refinery has been destroyed, significant other parts were damaged by the heat and smoke.

Ukraine destroyed a refuelling train parked at Dzhankoy, Crimea, severely damaging local rail infrastructure.

Belgium has confirmed it will be willing to put boots on the ground to patrol a post-ceasefire peace in Ukraine. The only other country has has confirmed it is willing is France. The UK had been exploring the possibility but its military had advised the numbers would be too small to be significant, instead suggesting the UK provide naval and air assets.

Russia has withdrawn from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture, on the grounds it wasn't following it anyway.

Russia is down over 1.1 million barrels a day in oil production.

Burst water mains in Mariupol, with water flooding the streets rather than reaching peoples' homes.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 26 August 2025 - 05:50 PM

[Garak]

Werthead, on 26 August 2025 - 05:50 PM, said:

Russia has withdrawn from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture, on the grounds it wasn't following it anyway.

Did they actually say that? Not that anyone was shocked by this.

[Werthead]

Workers at Russia's Typhoon production plant in Kaluga have not been paid for over two months, and have sent a video appeal asking Ukraine to blow it up.

The President of Azerbaijan is very annoyed about Russia's refusal to acknowledge having shot down their airliner, noting that when Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian helicopter in 2020, they immediately apologised and paid reparations. He also reiterated Azerbaijan's support for a resolution to the conflict with Ukraine's full borders restored.

Trump has apparently talked Orban into supporting the EU accession of Moldova and Ukraine, through some details still need to be worked out regarding Ukraine.

Former "Donbas governor" Pavel Gubarev has said that the Russian army's trust in the Kremlin is zero. Simultaneously, a Russian priest giving a morale-boosting message on television has said that the Russian army is full of "thieves," which is preventing victory in the invasion.

A big explosion has rocked the Ryazan-Moscow pipeline in the Ryazan region. This carries a lot of fuel towards Moscow. Unclear if the pipeline has been breached, but deliveries through the pipe were suspended earlier today. 

An American Poseidon P-8 operating over the Black Sea was intercepted by a Russian fighter in international airspace. The Americans ignored the Russian fighter and completed their mission.

The Ukrainian counterattack south of Pokrovsk is interesting. Ukrainian armour is engaging Russian forces at pointblank range amidst some heavy drone traffic. A Leopard 2A4 cleared a building and narrowly avoided an FPV drone strike in return. This is more of heavy slug fight than we've seen for a while. There's a sense that the Russian effort around Pokrovsk may be culminating and Ukraine has a chance to end the year still holding the city, which would represent a major strategic failure for Russia this year. However, Russia is pushing hard.

A Russian submarine apparently passed within the exclusion zone around the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group, currently in exercises off Norway, triggering a massive NATO response with other submarines being despatched to intercept and American sub-hunting aircraft combing the area. The Russian sub apparently beat a hasty retreat in view of the amassed firepower.

This seems incredibly dumb of them.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 27 August 2025 - 08:55 PM

[Werthead]

Ukrainian drones hit a Russian Buyan-M missile boat in the Black Sea, a ship capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles. The ship was able to limp back to base, but its radar was disabled and it suffered hull damage.

The Kuybyshevsk refinery in Samara and the Afipsky refinery in KRasnodar were both hit by Ukrainian drones, sustaining damage.

Heavy Russian armoured assaults near Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces have engaged with drones, destroying several armoured vehicles.

Several Russian soldiers trapped behind the lines when the Dobropillia salient was cut off have been located and captured.

Russia has disabled a Ukrainian drone factory in Kyiv, but (relatively) fortunately it was mostly used for the maintenance of the Bayraktar drone. Though still used for naval defence, the Bayraktar is not used for land attacks any more, due to its outdated lack of resistance to EW.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 August 2025 - 07:11 PM

[Mentalist]

The orcs also launched over 600 drones and missiles at UA last night. So far, 21 people confirmed dead in Kyiv, after a collapse of a 5-storey apartment building.

Muscovite sea drone made it to the mouth of the Danube, and damaged a Ukrainian recon vessel. The vessel overturned, but landed on shallows (so didn't sink, and might be recovered). One sailor dead, several were reported missing overboard.

There's also footage of an Iskander shrapnel hitting a Neptune launcher in the S.

UAF additionally struck several railway junctions last night. Overall, the strikes are intensifying on both sides.

Hungary continues to demand that Kyiv acknowledge their energy interests. So they banned the (ethnic Hungarian) commander of Ukraine's Drone corps entry to the Shengen zone for his involvement in the strikes on the Druzhba pipeline. Magyar responded by telling the Hungarian MFA to kiss his behind. Since the orcs and Slovakians happily reported that Druzhba is working again, I guess we can expect more strikes on the pumping stations in the nearest future.

[Werthead]

The last remnants of the Russian infiltration force in Donetsk have been surrounded in Dobropillya. Ukrainian forces have also liberated the town of Myrne, Kharkiv Oblast, on the Kupyansk front, whilst Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk has also been liberated.

Interesting idea being floated for a "no-fly zone" which would allow Ukraine to resume commercial aviation. Unclear precisely how that would operate, but Russian forces do not have AA assets or fighters close to any of Ukraine's western airports or even Kyiv. The problem is that they would still be able to hit airports with drones and missiles. It sounds like the first stage of the plan would be to extend a no-fly zone to Lviv, with European aircraft ready to intercept missiles fired at the region.

The USA is also proposing a plan to allow US private military contractors to work in Ukraine post-ceasefire. This would put "American boots" on the ground with guarantees that an attack on them would trigger a US military response, without putting "actual American boots" on the ground. Tremendous semantics going on here.

Ukrainian drones attacking Russian positions in Kardashynka, occupied Kherson Oblast.

Indications are that the Russian advance on Kupyansk has been defeated and driven back in some places. Amusingly, Gerasimov was filmed giving a briefing showing that Kupyansk had already been half-captured.

The Naitopovychi pump station in Bryansk Oblast has been destroyed. This will likely shut the Duzhba pipeline. Again.

Analysis of Ukraine's oil refinery strikes suggest that every refinery within 1,000km of the Ukrainian border is being systemically targeted, re-targeted and targeted again. The USA has upped its estimate of the losses of Russian oil production from 17% to over 20%.

Bloomberg analysis of Russian oil company profits collapsing: Rosneft dropping from 773b to 245b, Lukoil 590b to 287b, Gazprom from 300b to 150b, Tatneft down two-thirds to 54b, and Russneft down to barely 11.8b, whilst Surgutneftegaz recorded a loss of 452b. All rubles as well, not dollars. The entire sector is down 750b year-on-year.

Russian fuel shortages have spread to Zabaykalsky Krai. Russia government sources are prioritising fuel for Moscow, St. Petersburg and the big cities and leaving most of Eastern Russia in the lurch.

Russian forces raised their flag in Leontovychi, Pokrvosk, and were immediately destroyed by drones and artillery. Russian troops are in some cases being told to get to a position and raise their flag regardless of how secure the area is and if they'll be killed immediately (some indications some have refused).

Ukrainian POWs taken at Komyshivka, near Pokrovsk, were able to escape after their Russian captors fled. The Russians attempted to eliminate the escaped POWs, but Ukrainian drone operators spotted them and directed covering fire. The POWs marched eight kilometres under enemy fire before reaching Ukrainian lines. Some of the soldiers had been burned in captivity.

The Russian Volunteer Corps (anti-Putin Russian partisans fighting for Ukraine) has been quiet for a while, but is now in operation on the Donetsk front, having captured a large number of Russian soldiers and equipment.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has released cruise missile footage of the Flamingo in operation. Simultaneously, Zelensky and Ukrainian military sources seem to be suggesting that a major deep strike operation (presumably using Flamingo in conjunction with drones and maybe a similar undercover drone attack to hitting Russia's strategic bombers a few months ago) may be "imminent." Putin is currently out of the country, making it potentially a fine time to undertake a serious attack and get some of the Russian boots on the ground thinking about responding without Putin's presence (a stretch, but anyway).

Ukrainian missiles have also hit the Voloshyne border outpost, although these appear to be air-launched missiles or guided bombs rather than ground-launched cruise missiles. Ukraine destroyed a Russian field headquarters in Tetkino, Kursk with JDAMs.

Lithuania has begun a large-scale deployment of Dragon's Teeth tank traps along the border with Belarus, with more to follow at Kaliningrad.

Some commentators are looking at the 3,000-mile-long Northern Lights/Yamal-Europe pipeline and its hundreds of pumping stations, making it ludicrously impractical to defend every single one. The pipeline hasn't been targeted in detail yet, but doing so could cripple a large amount of Russia's gas distribution system. The oil loading and unloading terminals at Novorossiysk and Tuapse have also not faced systemic attacks yet (unlike Ust-Luga), despite both being much easier to hit as they are much closer to Ukraine. A systemic operation against these terminals could shut down the majority of Russian oil sea exports in very short order.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 31 August 2025 - 07:04 PM

[Mentalist]

There are wrinkles with attacking Novorossiysk, b/c the bulk of Kazakh oil is distributed to tankers there.


Kazakhstan is forced to rely on Muscovite pipes to get its oil westward, b/c Moscow has a veto on building a trans-Caspian pipe that would allow it to pump it through Baku.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian sources claiming that Ukraine has used Flamingo cruise missiles for the first time in anger, destroying an FSB outpost in Armyansk. This appears to be the same attack as on Voloshyne (the two areas are contiguous). A set of barracks were destroyed, one Russian serviceman KIA, others injured. Six Khivus-class hovercraft were also destroyed.

Crimea is under concerted attack by drones, and some reports of more cruise missiles. Russian air defences around Hvardeyske launched at least eight AA missiles. This is unusual as drone attacks don't trigger large AA missile responses. Simferopol, the Saky Airbase in Novofedorivka, the Belbek Airbase in Bakchysarai, also all under attack. Unconfirmed reports of attacks on Rostov.

Ukraine has deployed the Furia drone interceptor, with a ground launch speed of 300km/h. The interceptor is designed to be ultra-cheap and target Shaheds and other slower-moving drones.

Ukraine has recovered a Russian Gerbera surveillance drone. The drone accidentally still had test footage stored on board, showing it was built in a Chinese factory. They used its cameras to zoom in and lock on cars passing on the highway outside.

Huge fuel shortages in occupied Luhansk. Some people have started siphoning fuel from parked cars.

Novoekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, liberated by Ukrainian forces following the recapture of nearby Myrne.

A significant explosion in Voskresenka has apparently destroyed a command centre during a high-level meeting of Russian officers.

Russia's budget deficit has surged to 5 trillion rubles ($62.5 billion), about 130% of what was planned for all of 2025, with four months of the year still to go. The Central Bank's decision to cut key interest rates in June has triggered mounting household debt. Rosstat has reported a 14% increase in producer fuel prices for July, but hasn't released the figures for August yet, which are expected to be catastrophic after Ukraine's successful strike campaign. Industrial productivity has also massively dropped over the year. The Central Bank is now predicting 0% growth for 2025, which given how they like to massage the figures, likely means an effective recession has already commenced.  

This post has been edited by Werthead: 01 September 2025 - 07:25 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 31 August 2025 - 07:10 PM, said:

Novoekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, liberated by Ukrainian forces following the recapture of nearby Myrne.

wut?

Myrne is Kup'yans'k axis; Novoeconomichne is the Eastern suburb of the Pokrovs'k- Myrnohrad agglomeration. Novoeconomichne was generally considered as "grey zone" by DeepState.

Basically this means the orcs are pushed back to Kazenny Torets' river in this area; but furher north, towards, Rodyns'ke, at the base of the "contained breakthrough towards Dobropillya" they are still W of the river, which is concerning.

I want to say these counter-strike claims are indicative of the orcs losing momentum in their "BIG spring-summer offensive"; but we're seeing a lot of PR from both sides, sending troops for flag photo ops in the grey zone to claim control over various points, so I'm being very cautious.
Usually, this is the time of year we've seen the UAF try something to shift the map; but I have no clue whether Syrsky and co actually have the reserves to try something this time.

[Werthead]

Yup, that was a mistake, there are other Myrnes in Donetesk (the one north of Mariupol being liberated would be an impressive achievement!). I could do with more OSINT sources putting the name of the oblast after the name of the settlement, if not the precise front within the oblast, as sometimes even that's not enough.

Some sources claiming that Ukraine has also liberated the village of Udachne, Donetsk Oblast, confirming further progress SW of Pokrovsk. This front seems surprisingly vulnerable at the moment.

The Ukrainian military has field-tested a drone swarm guided by AI. Where this was done is unknown, but apparently the attack was a success. Ukraine has also deployed domestically-designed glide bombs, designation currently unknown.

Ukrainian forces have located and destroyed a Russian drone command post in occupied Kherson Oblast. Russia is continuing to use drones on this front to target civilians north of the Dnipro, but to extend their range they have been pushing drone teams forwards and even using the top of a grain silo as a transmitting location. This proved unwise, as the silo was destroyed.

Ukraine targeted the Russian helicopter base at Simferopol, Crimea, destroying two attack helicopters on the ground. This was a couple of days ago.

[Mentalist]

We are still waiting for hi-rez footage from that "border checkpoint" in Crimea to confirm whether UA did, in fact, field-test its Flamingo cruise missiles successfully.

Meanwhile, the orcs continue lobbing drones and missiles at cities, while trump says for the umpteenth time how dissapointed he is with putler.

[Werthead]

This is weird. Three Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers tasked to launch missiles at Ukraine suffered critical failures. One malfunctioned and had to return to base (gingerly, as it's unclear if the missiles had armed), another was struck by lightning and suffered cockpit damage, and a third aborted its takeoff procedure with a systems malfunction.

A Russian infiltration squad was sent into the outskirts of Kupyansk to raise a flag, but the group was eliminated and the Russian flag was captured before it could be deployed. I would argue this was not a reasonable use of Russian lives.

Ukraine destroyed a UAV storehouse in Truovske, Donetsk, destroying the entire facility. The batteries present melted down and exploded, adding to the fire.

Putin has said that Russia is against Ukraine joining NATO but not the European Union. He claims that Russia offered to withdraw from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2022 in return for the recognition of the Crimea and Donbas but Ukraine refused, and Russia has subsequently claimed Kherson and Zaporizhzhia after the additional blood shed to advance in those areas. He claims that the right of Russian-speakers to speak Russian in Ukraine is one of the primary causes of the war (which will raise eyebrows everywhere).

Possibly ironically, a fluent Russian-speaking Ukrainian soldier used his mastery of the language to convince two Russian soldiers that he was a comrade and then eliminated them both. After three-and-a-half years you'd think Russians would stop being surprised that a lot of Ukrainians speak Russian extremely well (whilst bugger all Russians speak Ukrainian).

A Russian boat delivering soldiers to the Tendrivska Spit, south of the Kilburn Peninsula, was destroyed in the water, neutralising seven soldiers. I'm not entirely sure what the Russians are doing there, it seems a non-viable way of attacking into occupied Kherson Oblast south of Mykolaiv. This was part of a renewed Bayraktar campaign, with the venerable Turkish drone returning to service over the waters of the Black Sea, possibly with enhanced EW-resistant protection.

Slightly weird conversation in Beijing where Xi and Putin joked that at 70 they are still children (Putin turns 73 next month, Xi just turned 72) and they expect biotech will make it possible to live to 150 before the end of this century. Putin also mused on cell-regeneration to become immortal. Putin definitely dwelling on his own mortality there.

Putin and President Aliyev of Azerbaijan exchanged a brief handshake in Beijing but no words, reflecting current frosty tensions between the two countries. Putin played this down in a press conference, saying he anticipated a return to friendly relations soon.

North Korean security staff "sanitised" the room where Putin and Kim Jong-un held a two-hour meeting, removing the glass he drank from, wiped his seat and all parts of the furniture he had touched. Presumably trying to remove all traces of his DNA. Even the Chinese hosts seemed a bit bemused.

Trump seems pretty annoyed by Beijing showing off its military hardware in front of Kim Jong-un and Putin. He has indicated that the US may increase its troop presence in Poland and has accused Putin of moving "inches" whilst killing civilians.