[Tiste Simeon]

Seems Russia is doing all sorts of mental gymnastics to try and blame these attacks on the West, so as not to divert from the "all our problems are because of the west!" narrative.

And over here, the BBCs favourite fascist, Farage, has been saying pro Putin things. And people are acting shocked...

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 23 June 2024 - 09:36 PM, said:

There is no region I can envision less becoming independent than Dagestan. that place is an ethnolinguistic mosaic, with the largest group (Avars) being only 30% (while ethnic Russians are less than 4), so in the case of a hypothertical independence, that place will explode, and it's squished between Azerbaijan, Chechnya, Kalmykiya and the Caspian Sea, making it even more dramatic.

There was an attempted Islamist takeover of Dagestan by Chechen warlords in 1999, in part triggering the Second Chechen War. The religious and ethnic makeup of Dagestan is complex, so yes, it would go up like a powder keg if instability took hold. But there is also growing internal dissent over the number of casualties it has suffered in Ukraine, and there were very severe protests last year due to infrastructure failures. I would not be surprised if it did descend into chaos, but Russia's rule is helped by the lack of a coherent local independence movement that unifies the different factions.

Other republics have much more coherent internal secession movements, although none of them are particularly likely to succeed in the near term without some kind of massive collapse in central authority, which seems unlikely right now, but who knows how far Putin will push his luck.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has hit one of Russia's biggest ammunition storage yards in Voronezh Oblast. The dump exploded and continued to explode for several hours as the first spread to additional storage areas and firefighters understandably said "f off" to suggestions they should go on-site. Potentially thousands and even tens of thousands of artillery shells, some arrived from North Korea, were in the area.

The Russian NIP-16 space tracking and communications centre in Crimea was destroyed by multiple ATACMS strikes. The facility was used to receive data from spy satellites.

Information has come to light of a strike on the 726th Air Defence Training Centre in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai on 21 June, by two cruise missiles. Reportedly 20 Shahed drones, 50 Lancets and 40 recon UAVs were destroyed, and a number of trainee drone operators and instructors were killed. The extent of the casualties is unknown.

Belgium has rushed through the negotiating mandate for the EU Commission to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Those discussions now automatically begin and go through a long process. Notably, this prevents Hungary (which takes over the COEU Presidency on Monday) from blocking them. Lawyers also confirmed that Orban cannot block the EU 1.4 billion euro military aid package.

[Werthead]

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Gerasimov and Shoigu. The way things are going in Moscow, Putin might just hand them over for the lolz.

Trump's national security advisors have apparently recommended a plan to him to end the war. They suggest that Ukraine and Russia will be invited to direct talks, and the USA will suspend arms shipments if Ukraine does not agree. If Russia does not agree, the USA will "arm Ukraine to the teeth" and there will be no limits on what assistance the US will give Ukraine.

In negotiations, the USA will issue security guarantees to Ukraine, including no limitations on US military assistance to Ukraine in terms of armaments. Russia will not be able to negotiate away the size of Ukraine's army or what equipment it can import.

The expectation is that Ukraine would be expected to give up some territory, although what would be in play is unclear. Freezing the war on current lines is likely to not fly in Ukraine and even a Trump US would find it hard to sell that, but Russia seems to be dead set on these lines as a baseline, and would not accept a return to February 2022 status quo. 

Russian media outlets have been fiercely critical of the revelation that Serbia has been selling ammunition to the EU via backchannels which has then found its way to Ukraine. However, after a brief flurry of criticism they stopped and started saying nice things about Serbia. Interesting.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 25 June 2024 - 08:51 PM, said:

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Gerasimov and Shoigu. The way things are going in Moscow, Putin might just hand them over for the lolz.

Trump's national security advisors have apparently recommended a plan to him to end the war. They suggest that Ukraine and Russia will be invited to direct talks, and the USA will suspend arms shipments if Ukraine does not agree. If Russia does not agree, the USA will "arm Ukraine to the teeth" and there will be no limits on what assistance the US will give Ukraine.

In negotiations, the USA will issue security guarantees to Ukraine, including no limitations on US military assistance to Ukraine in terms of armaments. Russia will not be able to negotiate away the size of Ukraine's army or what equipment it can import.

The expectation is that Ukraine would be expected to give up some territory, although what would be in play is unclear. Freezing the war on current lines is likely to not fly in Ukraine and even a Trump US would find it hard to sell that, but Russia seems to be dead set on these lines as a baseline, and would not accept a return to February 2022 status quo. 

Russian media outlets have been fiercely critical of the revelation that Serbia has been selling ammunition to the EU via backchannels which has then found its way to Ukraine. However, after a brief flurry of criticism they stopped and started saying nice things about Serbia. Interesting.

Lavrov was nice enough to say "we won't agree to any ceasefire during negotiations", not that this means anything now.

By January, the orcs could overrun some additional defensive strongpoints in the E, so it makes little sense for them to start negotiating right now. Especially since they are indifferent to the bodycounts

[Werthead]

North Korea reportedly considering sending a mobile engineering unit to aid Russian forces in Ukraine. Interesting to see if this triggers complementary moves by European nations.

Fighting around Chasiv Yar has stepped up again, with Russia deploying thermobaric warheads. They seem to have given up on capturing the settlement and are now trying to destroy it building by building. The 24th Mechanized "King Danylo" Brigade is holding the town and denying the Russians from crossing the canal outside the city, which they retook from Russia in fierce fighting a couple of months ago.

The Russian Minister of Defence and the US Defense Secretary spoke by telephone yesterday for the first time, and the first direct US-Russian ministerial level discussions since March 2023. It sounds like nothing of substance was discussed, with both sides agreeing to maintain direct lines of communication to avoid misunderstandings.

Ukrainian MiGs have been bombing Russian targets in Belgorod. They haven't quite crossed the border but they got quite close to launch ground-attack missiles and long-range glide bombs to hit Russian barracks, C&C spots and air defences. It appears most of the big AA systems in the area have been suppressed or destroyed. The closest we've seen to Ukrainian manned aircraft entering Russian airspace since the war started.

It looks like one of the forward barracks and mustering grounds Russia has been using to attack Kharkiv and cross the border was destroyed. Ukraine is denying Russia solid launching-off points for reinforcement or future attacks. I hope they're doing this along the border in Sumy and other areas where Russia has amassed troop concentrations but not crossed the border.

Zelensky and Orban had a conversation at the EU leaders' meeting in Brussels this afternoon. Lots of people trying to lip-read what they were talking about but not much joy so far.

Long-range drone attacks on the Redkinsky Experimental Plant in Tver. The site produces aviation fuel.

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have come up with plans to build defence lines along their borders  with Russia and Belarus, at a potential cost of 2.5 billion euros.

Some concerns that Russia may be preparing to use some of its reserves on the southern front to launch a fresh offensive or reinforce one of the offensives currently grinding forwards. This may involve reactivating units on hold as their loyalty was seen as questionable (like the 58th Guards Army). Having ~20,000 troops sitting on their arses doing nothing whilst their CO is on trial is probably not a great idea when they could be committed to the meat-grinder at Chasiv Yar or retaking Robotyne.

[Werthead]

Israel and the US are close to a deal to send all 8 of Israel's retired Patriot batteries to Ukraine. Israel took them out of service a while back as Arrow and David's Sling took over. Ukraine only has 3 Patriot batteries in current service but at least 3 more are in varying stages of delivery or having been agreed to be sent from other allies.

So that could take Ukraine up to 12-15 batteries in total.

[Werthead]

Lots of excited pro-Ukrainian accounts proclaiming victory in the battle for Vovchansk, but more measured voices are shutting them down. Russian forces have been driven back through the town but are still holding onto several streets along the northern edge of the urban area. Russian engineers are also trying to build defensive lines behind the town, so Russia is planning to abandon the town altogether but they're not there yet.

The first Ukrainian F-16 pilots are back in the country. The planes themselves are probably not far behind.

Shoigu's Deputy Defence Minister in charge of finance has defected to France (!).

[Werthead]

Russia has been expanding its territorial gains east and NW of Vuhledar, apparently in an attempt to encircle the town and launch a fresh attack. They seemed to get frustrated with the slow grind of this and launched an armoured assault on the town's flanks, which resulted in the destruction of the attacking force, including several new-ish T-80BFMs, a variant apparently optimised for combat in Ukraine (whatever the hell that means). Vuhledar is where Russia suffered possibly its single worst armoured defeat of the war to date, when Ukraine managed to take out leading and trailing units of a column in the town itself and then annihilated it in detail. They seem keen to repeat the achievement.

Russia has expanded its use of motorbikes as a way for infantry to advance. Ukrainian sources are saying that this isn't quite as stupid as it sounds, giving infantry bursts of speed that can be hard to fully defend against, especially in forest combat. However, the Russians are deploying the bikes in large, clustered numbers, making them easy targets for drones and artillery. They have also become less effective in the dry weather as their approach kicks up a lot of dust, alerting defenders to their presence.

Ukraine has recently identified Russian soldiers attacking whilst sporting serious disabilities, including missing limbs. They have also confirmed the first identified use of Russian female soldiers in front-line assaults. It appears an initial batch of Russian female soldiers has been conscripted from the jails. Russia is also recruiting conscripts from Africa, as it appears the limited success they had in recruiting from India and Sri Lanka has dried up after people got home and alerted their governments and media to what happened.

[Macros]

Go Putler go Putler go Putler go!

[Werthead]

The US military has placed all of its bases in Europe on a higher state of alert. Apparently this is not in response to a single threat but due to a combination of factors, including possible political instability in allied countries (very unlikely in the UK, maybe slightly more likely in France) and major security operations for the Euro finals and the Olympics. It may also be related to intelligence-gathering operations aimed at individual servicemen and women, and their families, by Russia, which has also been seen in the US mainland.

Several former US admirals and generals who commanded bases in Europe have said they haven't seen this level of alertness since the end of the Cold War. It may also be related to the suggestion that Russia may try to step up disruption efforts to stop aid getting to Ukraine.

Counterpointing that, some unconfirmed reports of off-the-books talks between Russia and the US, and rumours that Orban's surprise visit to Kyiv might have been back-channel communications on some kind of deal. Unless Russia has retreated from its maximalist position, that's not likely to bear fruit.

Pretty big Ukrainian strikes on Donetsk and Kursk, destroying military warehouses. Unconfirmed reports that 90 Shahed drones were destroyed in one hit.

[Werthead]

At least one Russian formation attacking at Terny apparently suffered 100% casualties over the course of several weeks of constant attacks, and Ship of Theseused into an effectively whole new formation with zero original combatants surviving to the conclusion of operations. That's pretty wild, even by the standards of this conflict.

Ukrainian defenders pointed out the enemy decided to switch from attacking at day to night, when they were actually much easier to spot thanks to thermal imaging.

There's been an outbreak of cholera in the Russian formations along the Dnipro, on the front in Kherson and further NE where the front meets Zaporizhzhia. Apparently the limiting factor is resupply trucks, which Russia has been running low on for some time (hence using those ludicrous 1960s vans which are still being built in Russia) and the heavy interdicting bombardment of Crimea. This has made it incredibly difficult to deliver fresh water to the front in that sector. Completely bananas. It sounds like Russian troops were trying to drink from the Dnipro itself which is not a fantastic idea in the best of times (it's a huge river but it's also carrying a shit-ton of crap from hundreds of miles, including from Chornobyl), but especially not since the destruction of the dam put a lot of houses, dead bodies etc into the water.

Russian General Teplinsky has been injured for a second time in the war, his location on the front was identified by Ukrainian intelligence and the building was hit by two ATACMS shortly thereafter. Possibly not a direct hit, as he apparently survived.

Ukrainian forces on the ground in Vovchansk have said the battle remains ongoing. The Russians have not withdrawn and the fighting remains fierce.

[Werthead]

Putin claims that Russia paused its Kyiv offensive and then withdrew to encourage Ukraine and the west to peace negotiations. The response from Kyiv and the west has been, "news to us!" Apparently there was no discussion about the Russian withdrawal, even though Ukrainian and Russian negotiators were talking face-to-face in Istanbul at the exact moment it was going on, and the Russian position was to first lie and say no withdrawal was happening, and later on that it had been a pre-planned tactical manoeuvre. Putin has indicated that the terms under discussion in Istanbul in 2022 can still form the basis for further negotiations.

Russia is apparently courting the Taliban to add to the list of reputable international allies. Russia is planning to remove the Taliban from the list of banned terrorist organisations and open trade talks. This is likely to inflame ISIS-linked forces even further.

Orban is in Moscow tomorrow, further feeding rumours that he is acting as a back-channel conduit with Kyiv.

A Russian defector has delivered large amounts of classified information to Ukraine after stealing them from a missile destroyer and setting fire to the ship.

The commander of the Russian 83rd Assault Brigade has been arrested for fraud. The 83rd is accused by Ukraine has being behind the massacre at Bucha.

A Ukrainian special forces unit has carried out a rescue operation behind Russian lines, bringing home a number of Ukrainian POWs.

An explosion at a General Dynamics factory in the USA is being investigated; the factory produces Javelin missiles for Ukraine.

The Russians have launched a series of attacks to retake Hlyboke on the Kharkiv front, which was liberated by Ukrainian forces a few weeks ago. The attacks have so far been defeated, with significant casualties.

US and UK intelligence now agree that the Kharkiv offensive has been the bloodiest for the Russians so far. Well over 1,000 Russians were killed or injured every single day for all of June and a chunk of May, with equipment losses being catastrophically high. The amount of territory gained for his loss of life is risible, especially given that Ukraine has since reclaimed a chunk of that territory.

Unpleasant footage circulating of a Russian artillery piece that apparently exploded instead of launching a shell, killing three Russian soldiers and injuring more. The Russian crew blamed inferior-quality shells from North Korea.

[Werthead]

Large Ukrainian drone attack overnight on multiple Russian fuel dumps in Krasnodar Krai and a tank farm in Pavlovskaya. A prominent Russian milblogger, "Romanov", just happened to be at the fuel depot and is now paranoid that he was being deliberately targeted by Ukraine.

Ukraine's first new surface warship has been completed and is currently undergoing sea trials in Turkish territorial waters.

24 of 27 Russian drones and cruise missiles shot down overnight.

A Russian radar station was destroyed in occupied southern Ukraine.

Wounded Russian soldiers who filmed themselves being sent back to the front line with crutches have had their crutches removed as punishment. They are still expected to fight.

A widely-shared video of a Russian soldier executing a wounded comrade has been doing the rounds in Russia, but has been claimed to show a Ukrainian soldier killing a wounded friend. Even the more rampant pro-Russian milbloggers and Telegram accounts have been pouring scorn on that idea.

Modi has apparently informed Putin he expects any Indians "misled" into serving in the Russian army to be immediately discharged and allowed to return home. He will be visiting Moscow next week to discuss this. This scandal has picked up some traction in India and Sri Lanka.

Ukrainian StratCom has confirmed that Ukraine can now successfully hit targets 1800 km from Ukrainian territory with a new generation of drones. The next generation will be able to go further.

Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza is in "poor health" in a Russian prison. He was arrested shortly after the war started for stating his opposition to the conflict. Shades of Navalny.

Kazakhstan has clamped down on its border crossings, removing western goods bound for Russia in trucks after coming through multiple third and fourth countries to get into Russia by a roundabout way. This confirms Kazakhstan's trajectory in reducing Russian cooperation in favour of working with the US and EU.

The Russian Orthodox Church has operations in 30 African countries, and is believed to be recruiting Africans for the war right in the middle of services. How vociferously this is being opposed or supported by locals varies by country.

The Ukrainian government has given special recognition to the 13th Khartia National Guard Brigade. The brigade has a "Latin American unit" comprised of veterans of the Argentine and Columbian militaries, who have been used as trainers for inexperienced troops. They have been active in the battle for Lyptsi on the Kharkiv front and have been instrumental in retaking some territory there.

[Mentalist]

Kara-Murza was actually outside Russia when the war started, but decided to come back and do a Navalny.
Frankly, considering how good of a lobbyist he was (him and his dissident father were instrumental in implementing the Magnitsky Act), it was a really poor decision. Since Kara Murza has UK citizenship, Kremlin was also dangling him as prisoner swap bait for a while, but RN it feels more likely they decided to remove potential loose ends and anyone on the inside that can still be looked at as a potential public opinion leader.

Orcs trying to capitalize on another rotation error by the UAF, this time W of Horlivka, towards Torets'k. They've been able to overrun a number of positions there and approach the town of New York.

Situation's not ideal. Haven't really been able to swing momentum yet. But only thing to do RN is to keep killing the enemy until the offensive stream dries up.

[Werthead]

Targeted assassinations of Russian soldiers has become a thing. Around half a dozen Russian soldiers who managed to get out of the military have been found dead, all with the same message attached to them: "thanks for the Special Military Operation." Several were shot, one was hit in the back with an axe. It's believed that partisans are responsible.

An electricity substation blew up in Dagestan, leaving 70,000 without power. Failing infrastructure in Dagestan has been a major problem and triggered massive riots last year.

Massive gas pipeline explosion in Crimea. A large ammunition warehouse in Avdiivka has been destroyed, possibly holding several hundred shells. Increasing Russian failures of supply vehicles may have forced Russia to relocate ammo dumps much closer to the front, but of course this puts them at risk of destruction.

Ukraine has indicated it has 14 full combat brigades trained and in reserve, a formidable amount of manpower, more than enough to mount at least one major counter-offensive, but they lack equipment. They are hoping to remedy the problem with new EU and US supplies, but the timescale for that is uncertain.

Analysis of Russian tank refurbishment and storage removals is not encouraging for Russia. Russia was running at around 80 tank losses per months through 2023, with roughly 115 tanks per month restored to service and occasionally bolstered by deliveries of new-ish T-80s and T-90s. This allowed Russia to end the year with more tanks than it started the year with. The problem was that they started with a solid number of T-90s, T-80s and upgunned T-72s, but ended with a lot more decrepit T-72s and a ton of T-55s, T-62s and T-64s restored to service. These tanks are suboptimal for the combat theatre. However, through 2024 so far, Russian reactivation rates have fallen to around 60 per month, because the tanks they have in storage are pretty shit, and they've been cannibalising some to repair others. Russian tank losses have increased to around 93 per month, so Russia is now making a net loss in tanks every month.

Russia still has a lot of tanks in reserve, with up to 3,600 still available to draw on in storage, but roughly 1,100 of those are in terrible to unusable state, around 1,800 are in poor state but can be reconditioned in time, and 700 are in a decent state. Some of these tanks also use machine parts that simply do not exist any more and cannot be fabricated easily, such as the T-72A Ural, which likely can't be reactivated in large numbers.

Additional gains in Vovchansk, and Ukrainian forces have reported bombarding the plant which reportedly 400 Russian soldiers are hiding in. They may have stormed it already.

The Toretsk situation is fluid and the 95th Air Assault Brigade is reportedly in the area and has already launched a counterattack. Some indications of success.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 July 2024 - 09:35 PM

[Werthead]

Perun's excellent analysis that Russia's recent military and geopolitical moves may have backfired more than helped their cause.

One interesting observation is that the escalation threshold options for Ukraine's western allies are almost ludicrously superior to those for Russia, and by drawing attention to restrictions on striking Russian territory, Russia basically forced the west to simply remove those restrictions. Russia's ability to retaliate is limited; the rungs on the escalatory ladder are simply much further apart for Russia than they are for Ukraine and its allies.

One conclusion might be the negatives from the offensive (Ukraine hitting troop and material mustering points across the border with relative impunity) outweigh the benefits (taking a few dozen football fields' worth of territory), at least so far.

[Werthead]

Poland has confirmed it is implementing a new policy that Polish AA systems will engage Russian missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace in range of Polish batteries, to prevent any repeat of the incident where a Russian missile was engaged by Ukrainian systems too late and the falling debris killed two Polish farmers.

Probably not incidentally, this frees up Ukraine to relocate AA defences in the west of the country.

Russia has hit the Okhmadyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv with a KH-101 missile. 21 killed and 65 injured as an early tally. The missile was not shot down by interceptors, so it was deliberately targeted at the hospital. There are no signs of a legitimate military target in the immediate area.

Ukraine has shot down two Su-25s this week which were apparently attempting to engage in ground-attack strafing runs with rockets and guns. The first time over the Kharkiv front they nearly pulled it off as the Ukrainians seemed to initially think it was a friendly aircraft, then realised it was making an attack run on their trench lines. A couple of Stingers put paid to that. Now the same thing has happened in Donetsk.

Unclear why, there's no immediate sign of Russia running out of glide bombs, which would be a more effective delivery mechanism. Since Ukrainian AA has improved markedly, close-range attacks in range of Stingers have all but vanished, ironically leaving some Ukrainian front line units rather over-stocked with them (to the point of some stories of enterprising units trying to convert them for ground-attack missions, with not much success), though others apparently still have shortages.

Turkey has frozen construction of a Russian nuclear plant on Turkish soil. The Rosatom Akkuyu plant started construction in 2017 and was expected to start operation in the next year or so (though it doesn't appear to be fully complete yet). Apparently financial irregularities have cast doubts on the plant to be finished, undergo the necessary checks, and begin safe operations.

Russia has introduced fuel rations in Sakha, Yakutia. People are limited to 20 litres of LPG per day. Yakutia produces vast quantities of oil and gas last year for Russia, but people in the same province can't get enough. This will go down well.

Russia's demographic crisis has been put in sharp relief in Voronezh: 16,930 people died in the first half of 2024, 7,807 were born. This does not include current Voronezhi troops fighting for Russia in Ukraine, figures which have not been made available for obvious reasons.

The UK MOD and several other sources have reaffirmed their estimate that now over half a million Russian troops have either died or suffered major injuries in Ukraine since February 2022. The death toll is more controversial, but even the conservative Medizona/Meduza estimates have ticked up to 140,000 (though it's on their high end). Ukrainian sources claim just over 200,000. BBC Russia, which has scrupulously been monitoring graves, funeral processions and social media posts for confirmed Russian troops, has a lower estimate of 113,000, but note this does not include Wagner or conscript deaths, at all, and we know both of those were huge.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 July 2024 - 10:47 PM

[Macros]

Children's hospitals are now fair game Putin?

[Garak]

It's not like they care. I mean they've been hitting civilian targets from the start. Liberation in Russian must mean something else then in every other language.