[Cause]

Lady Bliss, on 12 June 2024 - 05:31 PM, said:

Pretty scary that there are 4 Russian warships parked at Cuba just a short distance from the US right now "as a display of friendship" with Cuba. Wish we could take the opportunity to bomb the fuck out of them to greater reduce their fleet.

Being friends with Cuba costs them more than 4 Ships.

I find it funny that even though the soviet union fell and communism is basically dead Russia, North Korea, China and Cuba still pretend to be friends. South Africa even participates in this wierd group to this day because they received political indoctrination and funnding from the countries when communism was trying to spread their influence and they thought if the ANC toppled the apartheid goverment it would become communist.

Watching two third world countries, Cuba and South Africa send the same 50 million dollars or so of aid back and forth every year as a symbol of friendship and independence from the West is kinda funny.

If you ever call North Korea a frined or need their help you need to take a long hard look at your country.

[Cause]

Is there an out to this war or is the best case scenario a stalemate that drags into some kind of ceasefire.

The loss in manpower and money is now surely more than any conceivable benefit to conqueing crimea might have had for Russia. This seemingly was true months ago.

On the ground is anyone really motivated to continue? Is this now just one mans ego being unable to admit he made a mistake or does Russia have any strategic goal left in this? A black sea port without a fleet is pointless? More Russians have died than conceivable language speakers were saved from wahtever justification they were saving them from.

Even with a green light to know attack Russian staging grounds and supplies on Russian territory it seems the Russian Goverment is willing to continue regardless of cost?

[Mentalist]

The orcs need an"honorable peace" they can consider a victory.

Ukrainian public is (seemingly) unwilling to concede to any territorial losses at this point. At the same time, they lack the resources that would allow them to overcome enemy defenses and retake territory. Because mines, drones and SAM systems are infinitely more efficient than massive artillery bombardments, air strikes and armored pushes.


This means Ukraine needs to exhaust enemy force to the point where there aren't enough forces to man the defenders. This is difficult, since the enemy has a sizeably larger potential recruit pool to replenish their losses. This means the only effective strategy is to reduce their equipment numbers. This can take another few years, at least.

[Abyss]

Humans are a disposable/expendable/replaceable asset to them and guns are cheap.

Those 22 Sri Lankans must have one hell of a story to tell.

[Werthead]

The Russian economy suffered a major shock today. The major Russian banks stopped issuing rubles and the Central Bank switched to pegging its economy from the dollar to the yuan. The Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) blocked foreign currency withdrawals and dropped in value by around 15%. Massive queues formed outside major banks in Moscow, sparking fears of a run on the banks.

The websites of multiple Russian banks are not allowing clients to log in, including Rosbank, Gazprombank and the MOEX.

Another massive strike on Crimea, 2x S400 launchers destroyed. Reporting is getting confused between S400 systems/complex and individual launchers (a single S400 system has multiple launchers), so I'm assuming for now that when they say S400s destroyed, they mean individual launchers, otherwise Russia would be down about 50% on its total number of S400s over the war so far.

The Russian economy melting down, Russian soldiers abandoning the front due to not being paid, possibly the already-enraged 58th Army doing a Prigozhin Run on Moscow (and, being massively larger than Wagner, not slowing down) and the Russian Federation collapsing are another way the war could end, although still a petty uncomfortable one.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 13 June 2024 - 05:38 PM, said:

The websites of multiple Russian banks are not allowing clients to log in, including Rosbank, Gazprombank and the MOEX.

That might be an IT strike from UA. They're claiming to have hit a major backend

Sure helps with the lovely chaos. Seen headlines that Moscow is out of forex.

Of course, it's important to remember that the orc Finance Ministry is popping champagne bottles every time the ruble plunges, b/c it makes their budget sheets for the current year bright green (they still get the petrobucks, each one is worth more rubles, they are paying out pre-planned expenditures in rubles, more rubles left over, profit. The fact that inflation is killing the purchasing power of the everyday public is absolutely irrelevant, b/c it's not like they can elect someone else or something). And if this happens from a "clear hostile foreign act", all the better, since you can channel the outrage at becoming more poor at the evil westerners.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

French, American and Ukrainian intelligence officers have [said] Putin's spy agencies, largely templated on Joseph Stalin's villainous SMERSH, have tapped into the cinematic style and ghoulishly deadly rituals of 007 author Ian Fleming's SPECTRE.

[...] "Back in my day John le Carré stories were part of our curriculum in the Boîte [the Box]," says a French field agent[...] "The world of James Bond battling SPECTRE was a completely false representation of the trade, but that was then."

[...] Many officials at the SPECTRE conference were privately terrified of a Republican win in November, [spoiler for You Only Live Twice]

Spoiler

coupled with a Putin victory in Ukraine. That would set the stage for a sequel to You Only Live Twice, in which Trump is cast as SPECTRE flunky Helga Brandt, whom Blofeld feeds to the piranhas for having slept with Bond.

"Bon appétit," 007 said at the time. Estonian intelligence officials declined to comment.

Trump's Election Would Complete Putin's New Network of Bond Villains (thedailybeast.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 14 June 2024 - 12:12 PM

[Mentalist]

Welp, Putler is now demanding that UA withdraw from their portions of the 4 annexed oblasts, as a peace pre-requisite.

That's gonna throw a wrench into Western attempts to broker a "ceasefire". Unless he then rescinds the crazy demand as a "generous concession", so as to pressure Kyiv to "reciprocate".

Not a great move.

[Tsundoku]

Mentalist, on 14 June 2024 - 06:31 PM, said:

Welp, Putler is now demanding that UA withdraw from their portions of the 4 annexed oblasts, as a peace pre-requisite.

That's gonna throw a wrench into Western attempts to broker a "ceasefire". Unless he then rescinds the crazy demand as a "generous concession", so as to pressure Kyiv to "reciprocate".

Not a great move.

And people thought Vlad didn't have a sense of humour ...

[Werthead]

Russian commentators seem divided on this being a maximalist demand or the start of possible negotiations. Some of them have suggested that in "hard bargaining" Putin could agree to a redrawing of the boundaries of the four oblasts to the present front, along with possible withdrawal from the Kharkiv axis (which at the moment consists of a third of Vovchansk and a bunch of fields). Putin may also be amenable to Ukraine joining NATO in return for a demilitarised zone on either side of the border and no permanent NATO bases in Ukraine. Others don't believe that Putin can back down even on those fronts.

The deal is, of course, ludicrously unacceptable to Ukraine and unworkable; surrendering almost 20% of Ukrainian territory to Russia and 15%+ of its population is a non-starter.

Putin's motivation might be not wanting to see Russia made any more subordinate to China, not wanting to risk full mobilisation or another partial round of mobilisation (the opposition to which would likely be huge), and the uptick in material and troop losses along the front. Ukraine estimates that Russia has been losing 800-1,000 troops a day killed and wounded, every day for the last month or so, which is burning through Russian reserves, particularly on the Kharkiv front. The air defence situation in Crimea has also become perilous.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched a fresh counter-offensive into northern Vovchansk. 30 Russian soldiers were surrounded and surrendered yesterday, and a factory the Russians have been using as a forward operating base is now apparently cut off and under heavy bombardment. Ukrainian sources suggesting up to 400 Russian soldiers may be located inside. Losing the factory would drive a significant wedge into Russian lines across the north of the town. Russian forces have been asked to surrender.

Two Su-34s were crippled in overnight strikes on Russian airfields, including a strike on a hanger complex.

[Werthead]

Ah, some reports now that Russians are surrendering at the plant in Vovchansk. About 40 so far from the sound of it, negotiations for the rest are ongoing. The morale seems pretty terrible. Russian air defences in the area have also been suppressed, with Ukrainian aircraft now hitting Russian positions with little fear of Russian AA.

On a similar note, one Russian frontline soldier said on Telegram that the Kherson front has been hit hard by alcoholism after soldiers started bringing in booze or making their own. One unit was sent to attack the Ukrainian strongpoint at Krynky (the Ukrainian toehold SE of the Dnipro) and one of the soldiers got wrecked first, apparently leading to the unit suffering casualties to half its strength. Discipline on this front appears to be a big problem.

Ukraine has apparently launched fresh offensives out of Hlyboke towrds Morokhovets and towards Lukiantsi, both on the Kharkiv front, but on the far western side of it (Vovchansk, where heavy fighting continues, is on the eastern side). If they can retake Morokhovets they'll split the western sector of the Kharkiv front and possibly collapse it, force a total withdrawal over the border.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 June 2024 - 10:08 PM

[Werthead]

Russian losses are now ticking over 1,000 a day, a reflection of both increased activity along multiple fronts, and increasingly poor protection in carrying out those attacks.

The Russians are now deploying BMP-2 and even BMP-1 "IFVs", although calling them that is fairly generous. The former dates from 1980 and is poorly-armoured against modern drones and artillery, though it has a reasonable anti-personnel machine gun. The BMP-1 dates from 1966 and is frankly dogshit. Both IFVs are not only badly suited to modern combat conditions, but Russia insists on rushing them forwards with men clinging to the outer hull, which is a suboptimal placement. Either the IFVs are full up inside or the soldiers are so scared of drones that they want the option to dismount quickly and run away if they see/hear incoming fire (maybe 2 times in 10 they will actually hear incoming fire and be able to run away).

On the Vovchansk front there aren't enough BMPs to go around, so they keep sending either one alone or a small group forwards with dismounted infantry following or alongside it. This is a terrible idea and keeps resulting in horrendous casualties.

Ukraine has now deployed the 30th Mechanized Brigade and 82nd Brigade to retake Vovchansk, and they are reporting mass Russian charges across the open. The battles are tough because neither side has really had time to dig in, so there's less fighting around hardpoints and more just shooting at one another from buildings and treelines. Russia has managed to get some aviation back into the fight, deploying glide bombs at a reasonable rate, but without hardpoints to fire them at (the fronts are shifting too quickly) they're not as effective as they have been. Lobbing glide bombs at roughly where you think the enemy are instead of buildings where you know they are is a bit of waste of time, but the psychological impact remains severe. Both Ukraine and Russia seem to lack AA in the immediate area, but that's also allowing both Ukrainian and Russian planes to launch glide bombs against one another (on the ground, not in the air, that would be futile), although the effectiveness seems questionable.

The main reason for the Ukrainian advance is that they spotted the Russians starting to dig trenchlines and fortify the area, and Ukraine has decided to deny them the opportunity. Russian engineering corps working on the new lines are coming under direct fire.

The new Russian formations attacking around Vovchansk seem to mostly be new formations with little combat experience. Russia has belated realised this was a mistake and has rotated in reinforcements from the 155 Marine Brigade, 810 Marine Brigade and 9th Mechanized Brigade. Weirdly, they also deployed a single assault battalion from 83rd Brigade, which was insufficient and got wiped out, so sent in the other half, which was also insufficient and suffered casualties. These troops seem pissed off as they are supposed to train the new troops whilst on the front line in an actively shifting combat environment. Unsurprisingly this is not going well.

Ukraine is advancing around Vovchansk and on the western side of the Kharkiv front, but after initial rapid (ish) gains have now slowed as Russian resistance stiffens. Liberating Vovchansk now appears possible, and the Russians are trying to build fortified positions behind the town as a fallback position, but morale seems to be poor as this is literally so close to the Russian border you can almost see it, and the troops are asking why they just don't fall back to Belgorod Oblast.

Meanwhile, the Azovprodukt fuel storage terminal in Azov has been destroyed. There was another heavy raid on Crimea, multiple AAs engaged and destroyed, though smaller units from the sound of it, no more S-300s/400s.

Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front are warning of a possible Ukrainian offensive. Ukraine has deployed Baba Yagas to remote-mine the reinforcement routes leading from the Russian front to resupply and reinforcement areas around Robotyne. Ukrainian artillery, glide bombs and drones have been targeting Russian hard points (fortified strongholds) with a view to degrading Russian defensive capabilities, maybe more efficiently than they did last year (Ukraine seems to have been experimenting with drone-launched mine clearance operations to overcome the problem they faced last year, but the effectiveness remains in question). Experts seem doubtful that Ukraine has enough manpower to launch a counter-offensive - or, on this axis, resume from last year - this summer at all, but if the Russians are going to be panicked by the thought they might, okay.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 June 2024 - 06:14 PM

[Werthead]

People trying to keep track of Russia's AA system losses have indicated that 15 S-300s and S-400s have been destroyed in the last month. Russia has transferred S-300s from the Arctic to Crimea and it appears has removed the last of its S-300s from the Kuril Islands to Crimea. The Kuril Islands are currently unprotected from the looming spectre of Japanese invasion (y'know, just in case they wanted to).

Finland is reporting that 80% of Russian forces on its border have been transferred to Ukraine. This has happened about three times through the war so far, with Russia assembling new forces on the border but abruptly moving them to Ukraine when things go south again. The new Leningrad Front seems to have denuded its forces to reinforce in Ukraine.

Estonia is the latest country to discuss sending instructors and trainers to Ukraine, joining France, Lithuania and Latvia, possibly Poland and the UK as well.

Northrop Grumnman is to set up an ammunition production line in Ukraine.

Belgium has a self-imposed "quiet" deadline for the delivery of its F-16s of the end of this month, and some suggestions that it was by 20 June. Whether they have been delivered or not is unknown.

The Azov terminal was still burning at least a couple of hours ago, roughly 35 hours after the attack.

A Russian soldier who served on the Donetsk front over a year ago and recently rotated back has said there has been a massive change in that Russian soldiers are now having to take extreme precautions in even just leaving a dugout to go to the toilet, as the front is crawling with Ukrainian drones, he estimates thousands of them in the sky at any one time.

An alleged insider has suggested that Putin's visit to North Korea was supposed to happen immediately after his visit to China earlier this year, but Beijing officials vetoed that plan and asked Putin to delay that by several weeks, so China might not be "embarrassed".

A North Korean official kicked a group including Lavrov and Belousov out of the meeting room between Putin and Kim Jong Un, angrily saying that only their leader gets to enter the room first.

Russian Telegram has some rumours that Ukraine is testing high-speed drones for the purposes of intercepting helicopters in flight. We've already seen a couple of near-misses. Russian Telegram is also furious after the new "batch" of Su-34s was delivered, amounting to two aircraft. They point out that Russia has lost at least two Su-34s in the last month alone.

[Cause]

Russia and North Korea signed a mural defense pact. Embarrassing.

In six months it will be hard to say which country has the weaker military.

[Werthead]

Kalashnikov Concern, weapons suppliers to the Russian state, have informed workers that their worker's day will be increased from 8 hours to 12 hours. They will be no overtime and no additional financial compensation. The workers' opinion is so far unrecorded.

The Russian government has threatened to seize any defence contractor company that does not meet output requirements.

South Korea has confirmed it is considering dropping all limitations on arms supplies to Ukraine, stating that the Russian-North Korean pact is a threat to South Korean security. South Korea has already supplied hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine through back channels via the USA, but could now start shipping shells direct (possibly, geographically, via the US).

The elected (ha!) leader of Zaporizhzhia Oblast of the Russian Federation (ha!) is screaming warnings of an imminent Ukrainian offensive into his territory, despite this being implausible in the extreme given Ukraine's current manpower and equipment situation. But if Ukraine is really going to do that and has kept the preparations secret until now, more power to them.

Cause, on 20 June 2024 - 03:10 AM, said:

Russia and North Korea signed a mural defense pact. Embarrassing.

In six months it will be hard to say which country has the weaker military.

Worth noting that Russia has mutual defence pacts with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan and refused to help either one when they were attacked by other countries, even when they formally invoked the mutual defence process. Armenia has since Russia to go F itself and has withdrawn from its pact.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 20 June 2024 - 03:53 PM

[Mentalist]

UA to receive 2 patriot batteries- one from Romania, and one from the Netherlands and "one other unspecified country"

Apparently the oil facility in Azov wasn't just a storage facility, but part of the harbor oil terminal. It's been burning for 3 days, so that means they probably took a hit to their oil export capacity.

[Werthead]

Master Strategist Putin has pulled off the political victory of (checks notes) getting South Korea to send hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery shells and possibly their entire MIM-23 HAWK SAM inventory (retired last year) to Ukraine.

Germany has lifted restrictions on its systems being used to hit Russia, resulting in a lot of additional hits on Russian staging areas and positions on their side of the border. Russian artillery is being moved back from the immediate border zone to avoid destruction.

Russian soldiers estimating Ukrainian drone superiority along the front may have be on the order of 6:1, and are moaning about Russian bureaucracy getting in the way of promising projects. They are also citing the quality of the Ukrainian drones as superior to their own. 

Russia has started using 3-ton high-explosive bombs. These bombs are not particularly noted for their accuracy, and seem to mostly being used for large-scale demolition of civilian structures in towns near the frontline.

Polish football fans staged an impromptu demonstration outside the Russian embassy in Berlin.

Russian missile destroyers are launching attacks from the Sea of Azov. Russia has apparently placed AA assets around the sea to better defend it versus the Black Sea. The problem with that is that the Sea of Azov is within range of long-range artillery and missile fire from Ukrainian territory, so a risky gambit.

[Werthead]

Major Islamist attacks in Makhachkala and Derbent, both in Dagestan. Police cars, a church and a synagogue were fired at, and six police officers and a priest are reported dead. Forty civilians took shelter in a church in Makhachkala, with attackers reportedly outside; police have surrounded the building but not found the attackers yet.

The synagogue had its doors daubed with verses from the Qur'ran referring to relations with Jews.

Several attackers were reportedly detained on the beach in Makhachkala, on the Caspian Sea, but others may remain at large. Shooting in both cities is apparently continuing. Two sons of the head of Dagestan's Sergokalinsky district are reportedly the masterminds behind the attack. Kadyrov has said that neighbouring Chechnya stands ready to assist if needed (Chechnya-Dagestan relations are complex and there has been a long-held fear that an Islamist takeover of Dagestan and an attempted independence movement could trigger civil war in Chechnya as well, with of course huge ramifications for the integrity of the Russian Federation; Russia lacks the military forces outside Ukraine to suppress such an event).

Some reports that central Derbent is without power; Russian police and military forces are apparently now in both cities.

European police forces apparently went on alert last week over possible ISIS-linked threats to churches, but ISIS channels have been vehemently increasing rhetoric against Moscow, stating that strengthening links between the Russian government and the regimes in Tehran and Kabul are unacceptable to ISIS.

Local police and intelligence forces are saying this is an ISIS-linked terrorist attack, possibly carried out by local Wahhabist elements (the relationship between Wahhabism and ISIS is an interesting and complicated one).

Also reports of a shooting at the border between Russia and Abkhazia, its occupied territory in Georgia.

Notably, it's the one-year anniversary of Prigozhin's death-drive on Moscow.

ETA: The church in Makhachkala was stormed, with heavy gunfire. Unclear if the situation has been fully resolved.

Operations in Derbent are apparently concluded, the terrorists are dead or in custody. At least a dozen police officers were taken to the local hospital with gunshot wounds.

The head of Dagestan's Sergokalinsky district has been arrested. Apparently there was an attempt to resist arrest, or someone tried to rescue him from the police car, and there was an exchange of fire. Reportedly his two sons are dead and his nephew was also involved in the incident and may still be at large.

In the middle of this, Ukraine has carried out a massive ATACMS strike on Crimea, three targets hit heavily.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 June 2024 - 09:28 PM

[Mentalist]

There is no region I can envision less becoming independent than Dagestan. that place is an ethnolinguistic mosaic, with the largest group (Avars) being only 30% (while ethnic Russians are less than 4), so in the case of a hypothertical independence, that place will explode, and it's squished between Azerbaijan, Chechnya, Kalmykiya and the Caspian Sea, making it even more dramatic.

During the day, one of the ATACMs aimed at Sevastopol was intercepted over a public beach leading to multiple civilian casualties, including 2 children. While I regret this, I must also wonder who in their right mind woudl vacation with children in an active warzone.

Subsequent hits in Western Crimea seem to have gone a lot better with important recon and communications facility being one of the targets on fire.