[Werthead]

Some analysis suggesting that Russia only managed to recruit 37,000 new recruits for all of Q2 2025, and so far less in Q3. This was down from the 2023-24 claim of recruiting 90,000 a quarter. This may be explaining a lot about Russia's manpower problems that have kicked in hard this year. Russia has apparently been trying to recruit Middle Eastern fighters, including ex-ISIS personnel, to fight in Ukraine.

The Russian Kuibyshev–Tikhoretsk pipeline was attacked overnight, shutting down flow to the port at Novorossiysk. Novokuybyshevsk and Saratov refineries hit again. So far fifteen refineries have been hit since 1 September, more than in all of August. Again, targets are being hit 2-5 times in a row, with a strong focus on hitting the most expensive and difficult-to-replace components.  

Ukraine has confirmed that heavy combat is taking place in northern Kupyansk. Ukrainian sources continue to be upbeat on driving Russian forces back, but some commentators think the situation is much closer. Russian forces have not been dislodged from their bridgeheads west of the river and without that they can continue to channel reinforcements into the attack.

Ukraine is coordinating with Romania and Poland on intercepting Russian drones that stray into their airspace from the Ukrainian side of the border.

[Macros]

Seems we can tax the rich, all it take is the country to bleed dry due to a brutally poorly executed war.
Quick Starmer, start a land war in Aisa!

[Macros]

Putin considering taxing the rich for context

[Tsundoku]

Macros, on 21 September 2025 - 07:28 AM, said:

Seems we can tax the rich, all it take is the country to bleed dry due to a brutally poorly executed war.Quick Starmer, start a land war in Aisa!

Macros, on 21 September 2025 - 07:28 AM, said:

Putin considering taxing the rich for context

Quelle surprise!
Quelle horreur!

[Werthead]

Russian Colonel-General Alexander Lapin has been dismissed from military service. He was blamed for Russia's defeat in the Kharkiv campaign in 2022 and allowing Ukrainian forces to enter Kursk in 2024. He will now take up a role as military advisor to Rustam Minnikhanov, the head of Tatarstan, a region with a shaky history of loyalty to Moscow. Now sure pissing off a general and putting him in that position is a good idea, but okay.

Ukraine has advanced north of Kindrativka, Sumy and is positioning for an assault on Kostiantynivka, which would completely eliminate the western end of the Sumy salient.

Some sources - Ukrainian and international - trying to identify the whereabouts of up to ten Ukrainian brigades, some armoured, which have not seen recent combat. Some suggestion that they may be held in reserve for a major offensive operation somewhere. However, People's Deputy Roman Kostenko has poured cold water on that, saying that most Ukrainian brigades are undermanned and some too undermanned for heavy combat. Recent changes to recruitment and age limits have eased Ukraine's manpower recruitment troubles, but the situation is not that positive (of course, some now saying this is misinformation to lure the Russians into a false sense of security).

Russian sources are now sounding an alarm over the situation in Crimea. Three Russian Mi-8 helicopters and 55Zh6U Nebo-U radar station there were destroyed overnight.  AA coverage has been eroded to the point that slow-moving Bayraktar drones and Neptune cruise missiles are hitting targets across the peninsula nightly. It's open season for storage facilities, ammo dumps, lines of communication, airfields and static defences. Command and control centres have also been eliminated, and it's becoming impossible to maintain defences around the airfields and fuel storage facilities. Gas prices in Sevastopol have gone through the roof, and some civilians have left for Russia proper. Ukrainian special forces have also conducted lightning raids. Some sources warning of more serious raids on the coast. Ukraine landing and holding ground in Crimea is fanciful due to the complications of rearming and resupplying over water close to Russian-held territory, but there may be concerted efforts to scare the Russian civilian population into leaving, and mounting attacks designed to draw Russian forces away from the main front further north. Russia has no serious armoured units in Crimea either.

At least one and possibly up to three large Russian ammo dumps on the Pokrovsk front appear to have been destroyed. One had over 500 tons of ammunition stored.

A Russian government dacha in Crimea that Putin has apparently vacationed in was destroyed. Russian military personnel were hosting a meeting there.

Fighting around Pokrovsk heating up, with some signs that the Russian units amassed south of the city have gotten fed up being pummelled and may be launching a new offensive.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 September 2025 - 10:28 PM

[Werthead]

Heavy drone strikes on Crimea, at least two waves. The Belbek Airfield may have taken hits, and Russian targets around Sevastopol have been impacted. At the same time, Moscow closed its airspace in response to a drone threat. Russian military positions in occupied Severodonetsk were also hit, and a Russian military position in Avdiivka took a very heavy hit, with a suggestion that cruise missiles were used.

Russian sources say they suffered 400 KIA during the battle for Oleksiivka, Sumy in June and July alone. The town is still contested, but Ukraine has pushed back the lines on either side, leaving it dangerously exposed.

Ukraine has tweaked its law allowing Ukrainian military units to be sent abroad. This will allow active military forces to travel to other countries to receive equipment or training.

A Ukrainian F-16 ran out of missiles repelling a Russian drone strike so resorted to shooting down the last drone with its cannon. One previous F-16 did this and was too close to the drone when it exploded, crashing as a result. This time the F-16 held off at a safe distance and was able to disengage safely.

The UK has indicated that British warplanes patrolling over the Baltic States may unilaterally engage any drone or Russian aircraft that violates their airspace.

[Mentalist]

Drone alerts over Copenhagen, Oslo, and Stockholm

Welp.

Crimea's been getting pounded by HUR lately. They've reported taking down 4 Mi-* helis, 2 recon hydroplanes (used for spotting submarines, which Ukraine doesn't have), and A LOT of radars.

There's also been a big strike on "FSB dacha" on Cape Faros. Allegedly, the governor of occupied Kherson Oblast, the traitor Saldo, was killed in the blast. We'll need to wait for confirmations.

UN General Assembly this week. Ze is meeting with trump tomorrow. We'll see if anything happens.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has fought its way into Novotoretske and is close to retaking the settlement. This is potentially major, the settlement is where the Dobropillia salient meets the northern edge of the Pokrovsk front. Cutting this link leaves a substantial number of Russian troops (estimates in the low to mid thousands) surrounded.

Ukraine has also regained control of Rodynske, a settlement nearby. In that case the Russians had advanced and "taken" the settlement but not actually occupied it due to a lack of manpower. Ukrainian drones were able to reestablish fire control and Ukrainian units entered uncontested.

Estonia has invited Britain to host nuclear weapons on its territory. I think we can file that under "pending" for now.

Trump has said that, after further updates, he believes Ukraine can regain all of its pre-2014 borders and the US will be prepared to supply it with the weapons to do that, as long as Europe pays for it. That's...quite a change in tone. Though it also came after the most unhinged performance by an American President at the United Nations in its history, so apples and oranges.

Zelensky had a meeting with Trump after the aforementioned nutty speech and said it was the "most meaningful" discussion they've had. European leaders have also been discussing with Trump timelines for weaning themselves off the last of the Russian oil, with the hope to be done in early 2026. Trump may announce sanctions on Russia, but it's unclear if the Europeans' move is going to be enough.

One Russian soldier via Telegram basically gave up live during a video message and told Russians not to sign up and not to come to Ukraine. He signed up with 20 other guys and he's the only one left alive.

The Astrakhan gas processing plant on the Caspian Sea was hit by drones and ceased operations. The condensate unit was destroyed, and replacing it will take months. The facility had only resumed operations after a month offline after a previous attack. The Samara refinery was hit yet again, and additional fuel storage facilities in Bryansk.

Ukraine has confirmed it successfully destroyed the Molkino weapons storage area about a month ago. The attack was carried out using 14 drones and was hugely successful, destroying multiple Iskander missile launchers and ballistic missiles, and disabling a Pantsir air defence system.

Ukrainian Su-27s carried out a ground-support attack mission somewhere in the south, hitting a building the Russians were using as a command post. The building collapsed and then caved in the basement, which was being used as a command post. Russian casualties are reported to be "heavy."

The Sumy front continues to degrade. Russian attacks across the reservoir towards Kindrativka have ended in disaster, with some Russian units refusing to advance when reaching the spot where the previous reconnaissance groups were eliminated, their corpses just left on the battlefield. Ukrainian units have now fought their way into southern Oleksiivka, with some recent reports of fighting in the town centre. Russian units there have requested to withdraw before they are cut off completely.

Last night's Ukrainian drone strikes on military targets and oil targets near Moscow caused complete chaos in the capital. As well as halting all civil aviation (again), a Pantsir air defence missile launch stage fell on a civilian house (fortunately not killing anyone), and a Russian cargo pilot panicked and flew so low over the city that he could have crashed into high-rise buildings. I suspect the pilot will come to regret that.

The Russian Communist Party (!!!) staged an unexpected demonstration at multiple gas stations to complain about rising gas prices. Feodosia, occupied Crimea, has run out of almost all fuel types.

Poland has observed the withdrawal of Russian forces from Belarus following the Zapad-25 exercises and will reopen the border crossing on 25 September.

Zelensky had a warm discussion at the UN with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan. Despite both knowing Russian, they spoke in English for the cameras. Tokayev reiterated his commitment to Ukraine's full territorial integrity being restored.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 September 2025 - 07:55 PM

[Mentalist]

Orc have been pounding Kharkiv and Zaporizhya recently. Especially the latter, since they're continuing trying to push into Stepnohirs'k, with the frontline being under 35 clicks from Zaporizhya itself. So hitting the city which is a major logistics hub is an inevitability, even though mostly they're not hitting anything meaningful. But they've got heavy jet-powered drones and modified KABs (guided glide bombs) they can still launch safely.

UA's been launching strikes targetting railways power + pertrochemical sector all across the border, but this isn't really resulting in the decrease in attack intensity;


The situation in northern Kup'yansk appears to be somewhat stabilized for now. The orcs are still making slow, but steady gains in the junction of Dnipropetrovs'k and Zaporizhya oblasts, trying to envelop UAF's defenses on the Hulyaipole axis; can't really say the offensive is over until this advance (which pushed over 60 km westward since the fall of Vuhledar) can be effectively halted.

There's a lot of action on the eastern Black Sea seaboard today, from Novorossiysk to Tuapse, but nothing so far about any big results. Civilians are being asked to clear the beach zone, but.... not sure if any actual juicy targets (export terminals, or ships) got hit.


Seems like the muscovites are gonna be racheting up VAT by 2% to boost the budget; this should do wonders for inflation.

[Werthead]

The Moscow Stock Market is not in great shape. Investors are dumping stocks but there's no buyers. The MICEX index is dropping, and the market has lost 10% of its value in a month. The main fear is the incoming VAT hike (raising from 20% to 22% on 1 January), which they think will make too many goods unaffordable. Many companies, maybe not now most of them, cannot service their loans. The Central Bank was keeping things afloat by encouraging talk of a peace deal to end the war and sanctions, but they weren't expecting Putin to be so unreceptive. Trump's full-throttled pivot yesterday to supporting Ukraine may have been the final straw. Because of this the Central Bank is now apparently ruling out key rate cuts, whilst inflation remains high.

Zelensky has said he believes Iran has thrown its lot in with Putin but thinks India is far more pragmatic and will bleed Russia before dumping it when it becomes a liability, though he thinks India is much closer to this point than China. This supports the idea that behind the scenes even Trump has acknowledged he was too hard on Modi, almost frightening him into bed with Putin and Xi, and is trying to reel him back in.

Production of the Russian Lada Aura has apparently halted, with less than 800 vehicles sold and Russians preferring to buy older, cheaper models, or holding fire on buying anything at all.

The EU is preparing a reparations loan to Ukraine of €150 billion. The loan would only be repaid with theoretical reparations Ukraine was to receive from Russia. This should make good Ukraine's budget deficit this year and possibly next.

The Russian port of Tuapse has been hit by Ukrainian naval drones, destroying a docking area for refinery vessels. The Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkiria has also been hit again.

A Ukrainian training facility was hit by two Iskander ballistic missiles. One hit a shelter, causing an unknown number of casualties.

The Flamingo cruise missile now supports a ground-penetrator warhead, allowing it to penetrate hardened shelters 10 metres underground before exploding.

Russian air defences hit in Luhansk Oblast, with a Pantsir S-1 AA unit destroyed at Luhansk Airport.

Russian Telegram: "Several districts in Belgorod Oblast only have A100 and diesel left at gas stations. It’ll be truly epic if, by year four of the war, we still haven’t crushed Ukrainian energy but they end up crushing ours."

The fuel shortage has hit Leningrad Oblast, with several gas stations between St. Petersburg and Moscow closed. Lukoil has banned canister sales, and some gas stations even in Moscow's suburbs have reported shortages. School bus services in several parts of Nizhny Novgorod were also suspended due to a lack of fuel.

[Mentalist]

The fuel situation is going to be complicated.

-there are several vertcally integrated petro corps, that both gather, refine, and sell their own oil and petrochemicals.
-there are also a multitude of other gas stations that have to buy shipments of refined fuel on the commodities exchange. When the overall production falls, the refinery owners will prioritize their own gas stations, thus squeezing out those operators who don't have their own refineries. They will, indeed, face shortages and some are likely to go out of business.
-so the words saying "there's gas shortages in Oblast' X" can be somewhat misleading. Again, we need to avoid excessive optimism. Things ae getting harder for them, but we're not really into collapse territory yet.

EDIT: drones spotted over three Danish airports now. One of them is a military base.

The Nordics need to be investing into CEW hard, yesterday.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Yesterday, 01:13 AM

[Werthead]

Russia is trying to send reinforcements into the surrounded pockets on the Pokrovsk front. The few who survive drones and artillery then join their fellows in being surrounded. The purpose of this stratagem is unclear.

The body of Alexander Fedotov, former chairman of the St. Petersburg Committee for Transport Infrastructure Development, has been discovered in the Moscow region. Meanwhile, Vitaly Kapustin, a United Russia deputy of the Tikhoretsky District, was found dead in Krasnodar Krai.

A number of Russian gasoline trucks arrived in Simferopol, Crimea, to help with shortages. The trucks came under drone attack and were blown up before any fuel could be delivered. Half the fuel stations in Crimea are now closed. Some closed with kilometres-long queues of cars outside, prompting fury. The Khakassia Republic in Siberia has put severe limitations on what fuel can be sold and to what customers. In total, around 360 gas stations in Russia are fully closed, and many more have restrictions.

Russia is finding it impossible to keep the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station going with fuel and electricity supplies in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast becoming doubtful. The IAEA has said that Russia may have no choice but to switch on the connects with Ukraine to keep the power station online (and then supply energy reciprocally into Ukraine). Russia is trying to find another solution.

The US has intercepted Russian fighters off Alaska, whilst Hungarian Gripens acting as part of NATO intercepted four Russian aircraft close to Latvian airspace.

A Russian Su-34 was directly shot down over Zaporizhzhia. We haven't seen that for a while.

Russian units holding Oleksiivka, Sumy went ballistic when reinforcements arrived and were immediately ordered to attack, and suffered massive casualties against Ukrainian positions for no gains. The Russian units holding the town received no benefit, and their position remains doubtful.

Zelensky has said he will call for elections the second the war ends, and even hinted he might not seek another term and might step down as soon as possible. He also said that he requested a new weapons platform from the USA if Ukraine pays for it, and Trump said he would consider it. It's unclear what that is (F-35? Hmm).

Ukraine and Syria have officially restored all diplomatic relations, and pledged to work together to restore peace in their respective areas of the world. Ahmed al-Sharaa greeted Zelensky with a warm hug. Another masterclass in geopolitical manoeuvring from Putin.

A "tense meeting" in Moscow between Russian military commanders and British, French and German diplomats over the incursion of MiG-31 jets into NATO airspace left them in no doubt that Russia had ordered the incursion deliberately.

[Werthead]

In Smolensk region, near the Belarus border, a Russian fuel train hit a vehicle that had been left parked on the line and derailed. It looks like all twelve fuel cars blew up (not all at once, but over a period of time).

Lukashenko has offered to talk to Zelensky and says a favourable peace deal may be on the table.

Heavy fighting around Udachne on the Pokrovsk front. Ukrainian air strikes pounding Russian positions. Russian Z-bloggers are calling the overall situation on the front "catastrophic."

New reporting that Zelensky's new weapons request was for Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump is apparently receptive to the idea. Also, Keith Kellogg has been briefing Trump on the battle for Pokrovsk and Trump was apparently impressed by reports of how Ukraine diced up Russian forces, surrounded them and is now counter-attacking hard.

A garage in Sevastopol received three days' worth of fuel and sold out in under 24 hours. Fuel shortages have now reached the Lipetsk region in Russia.

The Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai was hit by a drone. Not very impressive done, but analyses suggest that the AT-22/4 crude distillation unit may have been destroyed, effectively halting all distillation activities at the plant until it can be replaced. This is an expensive, complex bit of kit.

Significant drone sightings over Denmark, and some in Germany.

Drone strikes around the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, but the plant itself was not damaged.

Russian airborne units are apparently training Chinese military forces for a simulated (?) invasion of Taiwan.

Russia's budget deficit for 2025 was estimated at $14.2 billion, is currently $59.5 billion and by the end of this should could exceed $90 billion. This is not great. Russia's expected budget deficit for 2026 is $54.7 billion.

[Tiste Simeon]

That part about the deficit interests me. There are multiple billionaire oligarchs in Russia I assume they're busy squirrelling their assets away before the government decides that to support the war even they have to make sacrifices.