[Mentalist]

orcs are trying to wipe out food distribution centres to force food shortages.

The mutual sea war in the Black Sea forced both sides to effectively halt grain exports. This means farmers have to sell on the domestic market, below cost, which is really bad news for their bottom line. And expect big problems for global food security, since, y'know, top 2 wheat exporters are locked out.

Kirishy was muscovy's second largest refinery, that recently reported coming back online after the June strikes. Hopefully the fresh hit shuts it down for a while.

At this point, we REALLY need to hit Omsk again, which is running at partial capacity. If it can be shut down, the fuel shortages could become critical.

UA hit Blegorod and Bryansk hard last night, targeting power infrastructure. Only a miniscule response to the onslaught that's been pouring on Kyiv and other cities. The new jet-engine Shaheds are currently outpacing drone interceptors, and the next gen that can catch them is yet to be produced in sufficient capacity. We're hearing less about ballistic missiles, which suggests they are stockpiling them for the winter. The current intel is that this time they want to aim not at power/heat, but primarilty at water/sewage infrastructure, to try and make big cities un-livable.

Macron floated the idea of next round of sanctions targeting any country that will

*checks notes*

sell fuel to Moscow.

So, we went from trying to embargo orc exports, to making sure they can't import fuel anymore.

"Gas Station with nukes" superpower, everyone.

[Werthead]

Russia's Starlink alternative is going well. The first launch batch reached 500km and have not been able to maintain a stable orbit, with several burning up. The rest are maintaining an orbit by using their thrusters but fuel is limited and will run out in the near future, probably resulting in the loss of the entire constellation. The second batch has only reached 300km and most of them appear to have already been destroyed.

Reporting from Russian sources that Putin was overheard telling someone he could not withdraw from Ukraine with the Donbas not completely taken as he would be "hanged."

On 28 June, Putin said that Russian forces were 10.5km away from Sumy city. Today, he said they were 12km away. The actual distance is 17.5km, and has remained so since May 2025. He also said today that Russian forces were approaching the ring road around Sumy. Sumy doesn't have a ring road.

Zelensky has suggested Ukraine could start targeting Russian civilian airports, not to kill civilians but to drive the insurance costs for flying to Russian airports so high that the remaining foreign operators will halt all travel to Russian cities. Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine has abided by American requests to stop targeting Moscow whilst American diplomats are present. It also sounds like Zelensky has also agreed to suspend such attacks during visits by Chinese and Indian diplomats.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 01 September 2026 - 09:55 PM

[Werthead]

Russia hit the SBU Headquarters in central Kyiv, in a rare direct attack on a Ukrainian government building. Russia has refrained from doing this for fear of Ukraine simply responding, and the PR damage from seeing bits of the Kremlin on fire would be incalculable. Ukraine is considering its response.

Ukraine hit Sochi overnight, destroying fuel storage tanks at a local refinery and hitting an S-300 AA battery. It looks like they scored a direct hit on the launcher with a missile locked in, destroying both launcher and missile, which is unusual.

Witkoff and Kushner will be in Moscow over the weekend and then Kyiv. Apparently they may travel by plane directly from Moscow to Kyiv in the first journey of its type since before February 2022. However, a Russian drone hit Kyiv's airport (despite the airport being effectively closed since the start of the war), casting doubts on this idea.

Marine le Pen has indicated if she wins next year's French Presidential election, as is possible, she might try to suspend French aid to Ukraine. She is pressing now for France to host peace talks.

Air Tanzania has suspended all flight operations to Russia, citing the danger as being too great.

Russia has passed 1,400,000 casualties, with 450,000 dead. This is more than all the US casualties across all of WWII (a planet-wide conflict with heavy fighting on four different continents for the US).

Witkoff and Kushner were in Moscow today and apparently talked "tough" with Putin on a deal to end the war. They have left Moscow by plane, it's unclear if they are flying direct to Kyiv or flying to Poland and then taking a train to Kyiv. Russia and Ukraine have agreed not to hit each other's capitals for the duration of the visits.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 September 2026 - 11:06 PM

[Werthead]

Extremely enthusiastic reporting from less-reliable sources that Ukraine has collapsed the Lyman salient. The entire Russian-controlled front north of the town has broken, with Russian forces pulling back to the Zherebets River. If true, this would be around 151 square kilometres retaken and the northern front threat to Lyman itself and the Slovyansk-Borova area would effectively be destroyed. Some sources also suggested Ukrainian infiltration and recon elements have re-entered Luhansk Oblast in multiple places, further eroding Russian control of the one oblast they've claimed that they, at one point, controlled in full.

The more reliable sources are being more cautious, but have allowed that Russian forces seemed to have suffered heavy losses in this sector and Ukraine does seem to have advanced in around five settlements.

Two Russian Su-35s managed to fly into one another in Kursk Oblast for reasons that are still unclear, with both airframes destroyed.

[Werthead]

Multiple, much more reliable sources now reporting the collapse of the Lyman salient and even claiming the scale of the victory is larger than initially claimed, with over 200 square kilometres liberated. Ukrainian forces are still advancing into Luhansk Oblast, and some units may be turning south-east to try to push the Russian units quite close to Lyman's eastern side back as well. Russian reinforcements to this sector appear to have been diverted to the central front in the Donbass, so it's unclear how quickly the Russians can shore up this area.

Romanian Intelligence has neutralised a Russian sabotage operation targeting critical infrastructure in Romania.

A Russian jet-powered drone overflew Transnistria, Moldova and Romanian airspace before flying back over Moldova and vanished. Investigators are trying to determine if it crashed in Moldova or reached Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian military intelligence assesses the growing probability of a renewed attack into northern Ukraine, potentially from Belarus, towards Kyiv. Ukraine has extremely heavily fortified these approaches and do not believe Russian forces could penetrate more than 10-20km into Ukrainian territory. Heavily fortifying the border itself is difficult because the area is within easy glide bomb and artillery range. Ukraine also assesses the autumn mobilisation may have been downsized to 300,000 troops after it became clear that a larger mobilisation risked damaging the Russian economy too badly.

[Mentalist]

DeepState still not updating their map.

I'm hoping the success of this attack (the Lyman salient) means the remaining garrison in Yampil' will be deblocked now.

Major strikes on Novorossiysk last night. Magyar claims that Admiral Essen was set on fire (again). There were some claims of additional "sunk vessels" of the Black Sea Fleet, but I think those were probably exaggerations (hope to be proven wrong, but we'll need receipts on that).

UAF appears to be diverting assault regiments into the area between Konstyantynivka and Dobropillya to stabilize the line and prevent the orcs from enveloping Druzhkivka from the SW.

One thing we are not hearing about is reinforcements on the Sivers'k axis, that would halt the enemy infiltrations directly towards the eastern outskirts of Slov'yans'ks and Kramators'k. Which is a bit concerning. their 2 big "unexpected" gains last year were the relatively effortless captures of Sivers'k and Hulyaipole. And if in the latter's case they couldn't really capitalize on it with a major push on Orikhiv (due to the counter-strikes in their flank), after taking Sivers'k they've been able to make steady pushes directly westward, making it about half-way to the "fortress belt"

EDIT: oh, and FirePoint claims to have hit the Gas Condensate plant in New Urengoy, the heart of Muscovy's gas producing land, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District.
2850 km from Sumy or Kharkiv as the crow flies, but FirePoint says their plotted course was over 3300 km.

new record, I think.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 September 2026 - 04:10 PM

[Werthead]

The United States fired 60 PAC interceptors at Iranian ordinance last night in one salvo.

One Ukrainian commentator going ballistic because some of the incoming ordinance did not warrant that level of response (though Iran did use several multi-warhead missiles which did).

[Werthead]

A Ukrainian drone flew over 3300 km to strike targets in Siberia. Ukraine now says they have the capability to lay waste to Russia's western Siberian gas fields. Potentially huge gamechanger.

Ukraine is testing its FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles but has run out of room to test them due to their long range. FP-9s launched from western Ukraine basically run out of space over eastern Ukraine for their range and accuracy to be fully assessed. Some discussion of asking neighbouring countries for help (which might be controversial if the missile malfunctions) or just test-firing them into Russian territory.

The Russian missile frigate Admiral Essen has been crippled by direct hits at port in Novorossiysk. An accompanying cruise missile carrier has also been hit and may have been effectively destroyed, with the rear half of the ship completely devastated.

John Ratcliffe reportedly impressed Trump with his ability to talk tough to the Russians, whilst Trump has lost faith in Witkoff and Kushner. According to rumour, Witkoff and Kushner will move to talking to American allies in the Gulf, whilst Ratcliffe may take a stronger role in Ukrainian-Russian talks. The White House has played down the reports.

Some reports also saying that Ratcliffe was supposed to meet Putin directly, but the other Russian officials panicked and cancelled the meeting after Ratcliffe turned up with accurate maps showing the limits of recent Russian advances, which contradict the Russian military's account.

[Mentalist]

I wonder if anyone told putler that the frontline has been pushed from 10 km to Svyatohirs'k to about 30 now, with the collapse of that salient.

To clarify: on the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, putler made another bunch of fantastical statements about the orcs' progress. In particular, he claimed they controlled the monastery town of Svyatohirsk, which is located on a hilltop over the Siversky Donets, roughly 20 km upstream from Lyman. It was one of the objectives of the salient, since it was enveloping the city from the N, and hoped to cut off supply lines by reaching the river further westward. But at their farthest extent on the Nitrius river (which also flows into the Donets, and is located between Zherebets and Oskil) the orcs were still 10 km away from it, as was plainly stated by all the Z-heads who had to comment on these pronouncements. Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Assault Corps then recorded a video from Svyatohirsk, indicating that it is the rear of the Corps, and no enemy presence there (obviously).

Now that we know the salient has collapsed and the orcs are falling back towards the Zherebets, putler's statements sounds exceptionally ludicrous.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Yesterday, 03:56 PM