[Werthead]

Ukraine's airforce will be reinforced with Gripens, more F-16s and Mirages in the next few months.

Ukrainian anti-drone forces have arrived in Denmark to share their expertise with Danish military forces.

Zelensky has confirmed that weapons stocks Ukraine can't use for whatever reason will be sold to European and American partners.

A Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian helicopter.

Russian forces in Chasiv Yar are under furious aerial bombardment, with glide bombs, drones and direct airstrikes pummeling their defensive positions. Some speculation that Ukraine will try to retake the settlement (if they ever left the area, which also seems debateable), although I'm sceptical on that.

Neptune cruise missiles hit the Karachev Electrodetal plant in Bryansk overnight.

Russia has started building drone cages around some refineries. Their effectiveness seems questionable.

A Russian resupply route in Donetsk is becoming impassable due to the sheer number of destroyed vehicles on the road and an apparent inability by Russian engineers to clear it.

Putin has signed a confirmation decree that the October to December draft will call up 135,000 people for service. Some had speculated that Putin would call for a larger draft or another partial mobilisation, but he chose not to do so at this time. He still could later on.

A British investigation has confirmed the identities of 13 Russian officers responsible for the Bucha Massacre. The information has been passed to the Ukrainian government, though I suspect they already knew (and some of these are already wanted in Ukraine).

Germany is hoping to field the first GMARS system in 2027. A variation on the American HIMARS, it can carry twice the payload (so 12 standard missiles or 2 ATACMS), has 8 wheels for greater offroading and the missile pod can be swapped for a cruise missile ground launch system.

[Werthead]

European generals and some leaders have proposed a plan to deploy a "substantial" air defence umbrella over western Ukraine. This umbrella would initially extend down the western quarter or so of Ukraine and would then be imposed in phases until it incorporated Kyiv and most of the western half of the country. The idea would be that all of Ukraine's nuclear reactors (bar Zaporizhzhia for obvious reasons) would be covered, and Kyiv, Odesa and Lviv.

The plan would appear to initially call for European AA units to deploy, followed by a no-fly zone over the western part of the country, including most of the border with Belarus and Transnistria. The eventual line would be from the border north of Kyiv down to the Black Sea around Mykolaiv, which is where it would come closes to Russian-held territory.

This plan may be discussed this week, but unclear how much backing it has. Certainly Poland and the Baltics are now much more willing to discuss deploying ground troops and then aircraft to Ukraine, whilst the UK and France seem willing to entertain it.

412th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment destroyed four North Korean “Koksan” 170mm self-propelled guns in Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. Whilst these guns are formidable, they're also not very mobile.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and intelligence services evacuated 48 Ukrainian citizens from Gaza, including 14 women and 16 children, as well as 9 Palestinians who are family members of Ukrainians.

A Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo plane landed at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel and then flew an unspecified cargo back to Ukraine. Strong possibility it is number of Patriot missiles, or possibly a battery.

Ukraine destroyed another S-400 radar system in Crimea.

Some sources - well, Trump, more or less - claiming that Putin told Medvedev to shut the fuck up after Trump redeployed two American nuclear submarines near the coast of Russia.

A group known as the "Caucasus Liberation Movement," apparently consisting of Russian secessionists from the Caucasus region, has apparently allied with the Ukrainian government and helped Ukraine's Defence Intelligence service target a Russian National Guard lieutenant corporal in Stavropol.

[Mentalist]

ZNPP has been running on diesel generators for almost a week, since the orcs damaged the last Ukrainian power line feeding the station. The concerns over meltdown have become so serious that Grossi finally acknowledged this.

The orcs also launched 20 drones at the power infrastructure in the city of Slavutych. While it's located in Chernihiv Oblast', it's adminstratively an enclave of Kyiv Oblast, b/c it's a satellite city of Chornobyl, where off-duty workers lived. So its power infrastructure was connected to Chornobyl' directly. And damage there caused a blackout in the containment grid for 3 hours.

Power's been restored, but overall, the situation's concerning.

DeepState finally updated their map of Dobropillya salient, showing the second orc group in the salient now contained in the gray zone- the territory to the S of the salient isn't under UAF control, but they don't have any control linking them to the main force that's still trying to push W towards Rodyns'ke to cut the roads from Dobropillya to Pokrovs'k.

Their gradual advances on the S Donets'k axis continue. There's also concerns about Lyman axis, as they are pushing further W to the north of the city, trying to envelop it.

Crimean gas stations limit individual purchases to 20L per car. Yaroslavl' refinery got hit last night, one of the few big remaining refineries that avoided attacks in this cycle so far. Some Muscovite media is reporting that close to 40% of refining capacity has been offline in September- some due to planned maintenance, most due to drone strikes.
Muscovy will be removing import tariffs from Chinese, Korean and Singaporean gasoline and diesel. The goal is supply the Far East and send domestic production from Siberia to the deficit-stricken Central districts.

The most important measure in the future budget project is the bill to take the small business exception threshold for VAT relief and simplified tax filings down from 60 million RUR yearly revenue to 10 million RUR. This basically kills simlified tax reporting for like 90% of small businesses, and makes them pay full VAT rate.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 01 October 2025 - 08:46 PM

[Werthead]

Russian forces apparently requested better medical support on the front, so have started receiving, er, Soviet-era medical kits manufactured in 1977.

A Royal Dutch Air Force F-35A Lightning has its first canopy kill mark, a drone shot down in Polish airspace on 10 September.

France has seized the Russian shadow fleet tanker Pushpa off Saint-Nazaire. The ship has 115,000 tons of oil on board and has been seized on suspicion of sanction-busting.

Two Shahed drones crossed Belarus and flew into Volyn Oblast in NW Ukraine before turning towards the Polish border. Six F-16s were waiting for them, so the drones changed course and impacted targets in Volyn. More F-16s were scrambled by NATO to patrol airspace over Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

Britain will start delivering SkyShark kamikaze drones to Ukraine in the next few weeks. The drone has a 250km range, 450km/h top speed and costs only $67K. A heavier strike version, TigerShark, is in development and may be field-tested in Ukraine before mass production. Ukraine has also released updated specs for its own drones, confirming a 1,000km range for its Neptune land variant and 1,300km for Liutyi.

Vladimir Leontiev, a noted Russian collaborator in occupied Kherson Oblast, serving on the occupation "council of deputies," has been eliminated in a drone strike.

Russian refinery capacity is now down 38%. Gasoline output has dropped by 1 million tons, leaving a 20% domestic shortage. Yaroslavl oil refinery has been hit again, and the Sukhodolnaya pumping station, where at least 10 drone impacts were reported.

Russia has started importing petrol.

Former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says he believes Ukraine is systemically choking Crimea but leaving the bridge open as an evacuation route. Once the bridge goes, Crimea's survival becomes much more doubtful. This chimes with other analyses that it might be easier to retake Crimea, or at least put so much pressure on it that Russia leaves, than any of the other occupied regions.

A Russian government plane unexpectedly took off from Moscow to fly to the United States. Interesting.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 01 October 2025 - 11:59 PM

[Werthead]

Looks like very heavy fighting for Oleksiivka. Ukrainian forces have stormed the southern outskirts but were halted by heavy commitment of Russian drones (with some Russian concerns about how many they have in reserve). Russian artillery units are unable to engage without being targeted themselves by Ukrainian drones, and Russian forces on the front have told them to hold fire as the enemy is less than 50 metres away. This is a very hot combat zone at the moment.

Ukraine has launched a counterattack on the Dnipropetrovsk front, retaking Sosnivka and Vorone. The situation here was looking a bit iffy a few days ago, but this may help stabilise the front.

The Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orenburg region, 1,400 km from Ukraine, has been hit by Ukrainian drones and heavily damaged.

Fifteen drones were detected overflying the Elsenborn military base in Belgium.

Russia has launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine's gas infrastructure.

The western end (the current one, after the previous one was pushed back) of the Sumy salient appears to be close to collapse. The 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade has suffered staggering losses after being forced onto boats to cross the Kindrativka Reservoir. The Ukrainians destroyed numerous boats with drone strikes.

Zelensky is pushing for Tomahawks but the US military is citing stockpile questions. The US may put pressure on Germany to supply Taurus as a stopgap replacement. The US is also considering sending Anduril's Barracuda cruise missiles.

Gasoline shortages in Russia continuing to spread. At the moment significant shortages and restrictions are reported in Zabaykalsky Krai, Primorye, the Kuril Islands, occupied Crimea, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Samara, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Rostov, Astrakhan, Mordovia, Chuvashia, Kalmykia, Tatarstan, and the Siberian regions Amur, Magadan, Sakhalin, Khabarovsk Krai, Yakutia, the Jewish Autonomous Region, and Chukotka. Kamchatka, Voronezh, Kursk and Belgorod officially have no problems, but many gas stations are shut and prices are shooting up. In Kamchatka, furious drivers called the police when gas station attendants refused to sell them anything. The situation is catastrophic in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk, where, in some areas, it is impossible to get any gasoline at all at any price.

Leningrad and Moscow regions are just starting to feel the effect. Lukoil has just imposed a ban on gas sales in jerrycans to prevent hoarding. Some suggestion that drivers are filling up their tanks, siphoning off into jerrycans elsewhere, and then going to another station to top up instead. The stations along the M12 Moskva-Kazan highway are also starting to run low. One angry woman reported being the 131st car in the queue at one station.

Russian Z-propagandist and "war correspondent" Yuriy Kotenok has said that in three and a half years of war against Ukraine, Russia has not achieved any of its goals and might take over 18 months to just complete the capture of Donetsk (possibly only if Pokrovsk falls soon, otherwise that starts to look optimistic).

Russian media are claiming that an attack on the Orsk Oil Refinery was carried out by drones launched by Ukrainian operatives in nearby Kazakhstan. They suggest "clearing out" Astana.

Pro-Ukrainian demonstrations took place in Idlib, Syria, with locals opposing the normalization of relations with Russia.

Trump calling Russia a "paper tiger" has really gotten under the Russians' skin, with even Putin complaining about it in an interview.

Russia’s Uralchem Azot plant in Berezniki, Perm Krai, some 1600km from the front, has been hit by drones.

The Russian Buyan-M missile corvette Grad 575 was hit on Lake Onega in Karelia, taking multiple strikes, possibly from drones. The ship was transiting from the Baltic to the Caspian (via the Volga-Baltic Waterway canal, I assume).

The Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in Leningrad region has been hit and is ablaze. A Harmoni radar system and Iskander missile system was destroyed in Kursk region. A Ukrainian drone team eliminated four Russian artillery pieces on the front in rapid succession, one mid-firing..

Greece is transferring significant amounts of missile and artillery ammunition to Ukraine.

During a NATO-Ukrainian drone discussion in Denmark, Ukrainian anti-drone specialist units demonstrated their Sting interceptors, shooting down multiple Danish Banshee drones.

In the last 24 hours, all NATO aircraft have switched off their transponders over Europe. Everything just went blank. Military jets, command and control aircraft, tankers and refuelling craft all just vanished in a few minutes. One theory that it's a test of the command system for a Russian attack, preventing Russia from tracking NATO movements over European airspace. It also makes it impossible for Russia to know if planes are in the air if they're planning further drone provocations, especially if F-22s and F-35s are flying. Interesting.

Lithuania has brought down 11 unmanned balloons carrying contraband cigarettes across the border from Belarus. Operations at Vilnius Airport were disrupted for over a day. 

The year-long protests in Georgia are continuing, and the government very nearly lost control of Tblisi this weekend. They're looking very nervous, amidst calls to release jailed opposition politicians.

Chechen commander Apti Alaudinov has made the interesting claim that Ukrainian casualties are currently running at nearly "two billion people." Even the Russian TV presenter looked askance at that.

Technopolis Moscow, a high-tech industrial zone in the Russian capital where advanced UAVs are designed, abruptly burned down overnight.

A Russian drone may have come down in Zaręby Warchoły, Ostrow County, Poland, which is some way from the border. Investigations are underway.

The Turkish Foreign Minister has said that Russia may be forced back to the negotiating table, probably on the basis of the American deal from Alaska, within months due to economic and military pressure.

Andrej Babiš, the winner of the Czech elections (albeit in coalition), has said that the Czech-led ammunition initiative will be transferred to NATO, and Ukraine must do more work to be ready for EU membership.

Ukraine has hit Lukoil's Kstovo Oil Refinery in Nizhny Novgorod region, as well as the Kirishi Oil Refinery in Leningrad region. Kirishi has been hit multiple times already recently. 

A Russian storm group trying to use a subterranean tunnel to advance in Kharkiv Oblast came under heavy attack by patriotic Ukrainian pigs, who had located the tunnel entrance and moved inside. The Russians suffered unclear injuries in the porcine assault and for some reason posted video of the attack, possibly under the delusion it would not be used immediately for comedy purposes.

Putin has said that Ukrainian use of Tomahawk missiles would result in the destruction of the "positive tendencies which have started to emerge in US-Russian relations," which is not going to have anyone shaking in their boots.

Albanian prime minister Edi Rama, a leading candidate for "funniest world leader," jokingly demanded that Macron apologise for not thanking President Trump for solving the war between Albania and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani President Aliyev was standing right next to Macron and burst out laughing as well.

Ukraine dropped the hammer on the main thermal power plants in both Belgorod and Bryansk. Bryansk managed to get back online but almost all of Belgorod city (pop. ~400,000) was plunged into darkness an hour ago and is still out. The Luch power substation took a direct hit and may have been destroyed altogether, the Russians will have to reroute power through a different part of the network.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 09:13 PM

[Werthead]

Interesting video here on Ukraine's new ability to strike at Russian energy facilities.

Good note in the comments that Ukraine uses backup gasoline-powered generators, which they now have in vast numbers along with substantial amounts of fuel brought in from the west. Russia's fuel crisis means they don't have the same reserves to run their own generators, and obviously Russia extends way further north, so its northern cities are much more vulnerable to freezing in the winter. Not that Kyiv in a cold winter is a joke, but Murmansk, Archangelsk, St. Petersburg and Moscow get much colder.

Ukraine has kept up the pressure on Belgorod all day, hitting the thermal plant repeatedly, with drone strikes on electrical power substations and military targets. Some parts of the city got their power back, but others then blacked out. The attack has been pretty continuous, possibly unprecedented for Ukrainian strikes in the conflict so far.

Crimea's largest fuel terminal at Feodosia took a major hit and the terminal is ablaze. As of an hour ago, the first had been raging for 14 hours.

The Tyumen Oil Refinery, over 2000km from Ukraine, has been hit with significant damage.

Two S-400 launchers were hit in Crimea, with a radar and a launch element destroyed. An S-400 radar element has also been destroyed near the main front in Donetsk. Ukrainian forces also fended off a major assault on Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, whilst Russia has been experimenting with ground-based robotics on the Pokrovsk front. A Kuryer grenade launcher system was destroyed.

A Ukrainian drone affixed itself to a Russian Buk air defence system whilst it was in transit and stayed there for an hour or so. Russian personnel at the launch site tried to remove it with a stick and, when, that failed, called HQ for advice. The advice appears to have been "what the hell are you doing?" as they promptly all ran away. The Ukrainian operators, presumably still laughing, then detonated the drone and destroyed the unit.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Today, 09:08 PM

[Mentalist]

Drone Strike in Tyumen today, apparently. On a refinery.
This is the heart of Western Siberian oil production. almost 2000 km from UA. Most likely, the drones were launched from muscovy itself, as a few were jammed and 3 fell on the refinery grounds w/o exploding.

Possibly also a hit on the Perm' refinery (1600 km), but info there is conflicting.

RN there's a duel b/w Belgorod and Kharkiv. Kharkiv was hit at least 20 times, drones and ballistic missiles are being used. Belgorod had a few more missile strikes on its power infrastructure, the governor ordered diesel-powered emergency generators brought in.

Euroskeptic Populists won in Czech republic parliament election. They will probably need to make a coalition with the far-right anti-EU party, which wants an anti-EU referendum. Needless to say, support to UA is likely to be affected.


French govt collapsed again. Macron struggling, as apparently there's attempts to impeach him.

Multiple strikes on Crimea, hitting a bunch more radars, AA systems, and some ammo dumps. The fuel base in Feodosiya is still on fire, 2nd day in a row, another tank exploded, so that should help with keeping the deficit going.

UA and Denmark signed off on joint weapon production in Denmark. Supposedly, these are the Flamingo cruise missiles; to be honest, I'm getting sick of hearing about the would-be-domestic-wunderwaffen, I'd rather not know they exist until they start blowing shit up in large quantities.

Greece isn't just transferring artilly ammo, but also 60 high-caliber SPGs. Czech Republic was considering sending its last party of modernized T-72s, since they're getting Leopard 2s to replace them, but this might be doubtful now.


There's been a bit of pushback in the S Donets'k axis, with the orc advances being slowed down, and UAF claims to have pushed the enemy back from a cluster of villages away from Orestopil'; However, this is still the most unstable portion of the frontline. Some reports that the forward isolated orc groups on the "Dobropillya salient" are being cleaned up totally, but no strong confirmations. Both sides are operating in small groups of 2-5 people at a time, dodging multitudes of of hovering spotter drones; the front lines are extremely blurred as the result, and its becoming harder and harder to determine actual areas of control.



Overall, the orcs are shifting their attention to long-range air war again, since they seem to have hit production capacity to sustain daily intensive bombardments. UA's started hitting back at power objects, but the primary focus is still refineries, though it's unclear how close they are to a critical threshold.