[Werthead]

Ukraine's airforce will be reinforced with Gripens, more F-16s and Mirages in the next few months.

Ukrainian anti-drone forces have arrived in Denmark to share their expertise with Danish military forces.

Zelensky has confirmed that weapons stocks Ukraine can't use for whatever reason will be sold to European and American partners.

A Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian helicopter.

Russian forces in Chasiv Yar are under furious aerial bombardment, with glide bombs, drones and direct airstrikes pummeling their defensive positions. Some speculation that Ukraine will try to retake the settlement (if they ever left the area, which also seems debateable), although I'm sceptical on that.

Neptune cruise missiles hit the Karachev Electrodetal plant in Bryansk overnight.

Russia has started building drone cages around some refineries. Their effectiveness seems questionable.

A Russian resupply route in Donetsk is becoming impassable due to the sheer number of destroyed vehicles on the road and an apparent inability by Russian engineers to clear it.

Putin has signed a confirmation decree that the October to December draft will call up 135,000 people for service. Some had speculated that Putin would call for a larger draft or another partial mobilisation, but he chose not to do so at this time. He still could later on.

A British investigation has confirmed the identities of 13 Russian officers responsible for the Bucha Massacre. The information has been passed to the Ukrainian government, though I suspect they already knew (and some of these are already wanted in Ukraine).

Germany is hoping to field the first GMARS system in 2027. A variation on the American HIMARS, it can carry twice the payload (so 12 standard missiles or 2 ATACMS), has 8 wheels for greater offroading and the missile pod can be swapped for a cruise missile ground launch system.

[Werthead]

European generals and some leaders have proposed a plan to deploy a "substantial" air defence umbrella over western Ukraine. This umbrella would initially extend down the western quarter or so of Ukraine and would then be imposed in phases until it incorporated Kyiv and most of the western half of the country. The idea would be that all of Ukraine's nuclear reactors (bar Zaporizhzhia for obvious reasons) would be covered, and Kyiv, Odesa and Lviv.

The plan would appear to initially call for European AA units to deploy, followed by a no-fly zone over the western part of the country, including most of the border with Belarus and Transnistria. The eventual line would be from the border north of Kyiv down to the Black Sea around Mykolaiv, which is where it would come closes to Russian-held territory.

This plan may be discussed this week, but unclear how much backing it has. Certainly Poland and the Baltics are now much more willing to discuss deploying ground troops and then aircraft to Ukraine, whilst the UK and France seem willing to entertain it.

412th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment destroyed four North Korean “Koksan” 170mm self-propelled guns in Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. Whilst these guns are formidable, they're also not very mobile.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and intelligence services evacuated 48 Ukrainian citizens from Gaza, including 14 women and 16 children, as well as 9 Palestinians who are family members of Ukrainians.

A Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo plane landed at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel and then flew an unspecified cargo back to Ukraine. Strong possibility it is number of Patriot missiles, or possibly a battery.

Ukraine destroyed another S-400 radar system in Crimea.

Some sources - well, Trump, more or less - claiming that Putin told Medvedev to shut the fuck up after Trump redeployed two American nuclear submarines near the coast of Russia.

A group known as the "Caucasus Liberation Movement," apparently consisting of Russian secessionists from the Caucasus region, has apparently allied with the Ukrainian government and helped Ukraine's Defence Intelligence service target a Russian National Guard lieutenant corporal in Stavropol.

[Mentalist]

ZNPP has been running on diesel generators for almost a week, since the orcs damaged the last Ukrainian power line feeding the station. The concerns over meltdown have become so serious that Grossi finally acknowledged this.

The orcs also launched 20 drones at the power infrastructure in the city of Slavutych. While it's located in Chernihiv Oblast', it's adminstratively an enclave of Kyiv Oblast, b/c it's a satellite city of Chornobyl, where off-duty workers lived. So its power infrastructure was connected to Chornobyl' directly. And damage there caused a blackout in the containment grid for 3 hours.

Power's been restored, but overall, the situation's concerning.

DeepState finally updated their map of Dobropillya salient, showing the second orc group in the salient now contained in the gray zone- the territory to the S of the salient isn't under UAF control, but they don't have any control linking them to the main force that's still trying to push W towards Rodyns'ke to cut the roads from Dobropillya to Pokrovs'k.

Their gradual advances on the S Donets'k axis continue. There's also concerns about Lyman axis, as they are pushing further W to the north of the city, trying to envelop it.

Crimean gas stations limit individual purchases to 20L per car. Yaroslavl' refinery got hit last night, one of the few big remaining refineries that avoided attacks in this cycle so far. Some Muscovite media is reporting that close to 40% of refining capacity has been offline in September- some due to planned maintenance, most due to drone strikes.
Muscovy will be removing import tariffs from Chinese, Korean and Singaporean gasoline and diesel. The goal is supply the Far East and send domestic production from Siberia to the deficit-stricken Central districts.

The most important measure in the future budget project is the bill to take the small business exception threshold for VAT relief and simplified tax filings down from 60 million RUR yearly revenue to 10 million RUR. This basically kills simlified tax reporting for like 90% of small businesses, and makes them pay full VAT rate.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 01 October 2025 - 08:46 PM

[Werthead]

Russian forces apparently requested better medical support on the front, so have started receiving, er, Soviet-era medical kits manufactured in 1977.

A Royal Dutch Air Force F-35A Lightning has its first canopy kill mark, a drone shot down in Polish airspace on 10 September.

France has seized the Russian shadow fleet tanker Pushpa off Saint-Nazaire. The ship has 115,000 tons of oil on board and has been seized on suspicion of sanction-busting.

Two Shahed drones crossed Belarus and flew into Volyn Oblast in NW Ukraine before turning towards the Polish border. Six F-16s were waiting for them, so the drones changed course and impacted targets in Volyn. More F-16s were scrambled by NATO to patrol airspace over Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

Britain will start delivering SkyShark kamikaze drones to Ukraine in the next few weeks. The drone has a 250km range, 450km/h top speed and costs only $67K. A heavier strike version, TigerShark, is in development and may be field-tested in Ukraine before mass production. Ukraine has also released updated specs for its own drones, confirming a 1,000km range for its Neptune land variant and 1,300km for Liutyi.

Vladimir Leontiev, a noted Russian collaborator in occupied Kherson Oblast, serving on the occupation "council of deputies," has been eliminated in a drone strike.

Russian refinery capacity is now down 38%. Gasoline output has dropped by 1 million tons, leaving a 20% domestic shortage. Yaroslavl oil refinery has been hit again, and the Sukhodolnaya pumping station, where at least 10 drone impacts were reported.

Russia has started importing petrol.

Former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says he believes Ukraine is systemically choking Crimea but leaving the bridge open as an evacuation route. Once the bridge goes, Crimea's survival becomes much more doubtful. This chimes with other analyses that it might be easier to retake Crimea, or at least put so much pressure on it that Russia leaves, than any of the other occupied regions.

A Russian government plane unexpectedly took off from Moscow to fly to the United States. Interesting.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 01 October 2025 - 11:59 PM

[Werthead]

Looks like very heavy fighting for Oleksiivka. Ukrainian forces have stormed the southern outskirts but were halted by heavy commitment of Russian drones (with some Russian concerns about how many they have in reserve). Russian artillery units are unable to engage without being targeted themselves by Ukrainian drones, and Russian forces on the front have told them to hold fire as the enemy is less than 50 metres away. This is a very hot combat zone at the moment.

Ukraine has launched a counterattack on the Dnipropetrovsk front, retaking Sosnivka and Vorone. The situation here was looking a bit iffy a few days ago, but this may help stabilise the front.

The Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orenburg region, 1,400 km from Ukraine, has been hit by Ukrainian drones and heavily damaged.

Fifteen drones were detected overflying the Elsenborn military base in Belgium.

Russia has launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine's gas infrastructure.

The western end (the current one, after the previous one was pushed back) of the Sumy salient appears to be close to collapse. The 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade has suffered staggering losses after being forced onto boats to cross the Kindrativka Reservoir. The Ukrainians destroyed numerous boats with drone strikes.

Zelensky is pushing for Tomahawks but the US military is citing stockpile questions. The US may put pressure on Germany to supply Taurus as a stopgap replacement. The US is also considering sending Anduril's Barracuda cruise missiles.

Gasoline shortages in Russia continuing to spread. At the moment significant shortages and restrictions are reported in Zabaykalsky Krai, Primorye, the Kuril Islands, occupied Crimea, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Samara, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Rostov, Astrakhan, Mordovia, Chuvashia, Kalmykia, Tatarstan, and the Siberian regions Amur, Magadan, Sakhalin, Khabarovsk Krai, Yakutia, the Jewish Autonomous Region, and Chukotka. Kamchatka, Voronezh, Kursk and Belgorod officially have no problems, but many gas stations are shut and prices are shooting up. In Kamchatka, furious drivers called the police when gas station attendants refused to sell them anything. The situation is catastrophic in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk, where, in some areas, it is impossible to get any gasoline at all at any price.

Leningrad and Moscow regions are just starting to feel the effect. Lukoil has just imposed a ban on gas sales in jerrycans to prevent hoarding. Some suggestion that drivers are filling up their tanks, siphoning off into jerrycans elsewhere, and then going to another station to top up instead. The stations along the M12 Moskva-Kazan highway are also starting to run low. One angry woman reported being the 131st car in the queue at one station.

Russian Z-propagandist and "war correspondent" Yuriy Kotenok has said that in three and a half years of war against Ukraine, Russia has not achieved any of its goals and might take over 18 months to just complete the capture of Donetsk (possibly only if Pokrovsk falls soon, otherwise that starts to look optimistic).

Russian media are claiming that an attack on the Orsk Oil Refinery was carried out by drones launched by Ukrainian operatives in nearby Kazakhstan. They suggest "clearing out" Astana.

Pro-Ukrainian demonstrations took place in Idlib, Syria, with locals opposing the normalization of relations with Russia.

Trump calling Russia a "paper tiger" has really gotten under the Russians' skin, with even Putin complaining about it in an interview.

Russia’s Uralchem Azot plant in Berezniki, Perm Krai, some 1600km from the front, has been hit by drones.

The Russian Buyan-M missile corvette Grad 575 was hit on Lake Onega in Karelia, taking multiple strikes, possibly from drones. The ship was transiting from the Baltic to the Caspian (via the Volga-Baltic Waterway canal, I assume).

The Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in Leningrad region has been hit and is ablaze. A Harmoni radar system and Iskander missile system was destroyed in Kursk region. A Ukrainian drone team eliminated four Russian artillery pieces on the front in rapid succession, one mid-firing..

Greece is transferring significant amounts of missile and artillery ammunition to Ukraine.

During a NATO-Ukrainian drone discussion in Denmark, Ukrainian anti-drone specialist units demonstrated their Sting interceptors, shooting down multiple Danish Banshee drones.

In the last 24 hours, all NATO aircraft have switched off their transponders over Europe. Everything just went blank. Military jets, command and control aircraft, tankers and refuelling craft all just vanished in a few minutes. One theory that it's a test of the command system for a Russian attack, preventing Russia from tracking NATO movements over European airspace. It also makes it impossible for Russia to know if planes are in the air if they're planning further drone provocations, especially if F-22s and F-35s are flying. Interesting.

Lithuania has brought down 11 unmanned balloons carrying contraband cigarettes across the border from Belarus. Operations at Vilnius Airport were disrupted for over a day. 

The year-long protests in Georgia are continuing, and the government very nearly lost control of Tblisi this weekend. They're looking very nervous, amidst calls to release jailed opposition politicians.

Chechen commander Apti Alaudinov has made the interesting claim that Ukrainian casualties are currently running at nearly "two billion people." Even the Russian TV presenter looked askance at that.

Technopolis Moscow, a high-tech industrial zone in the Russian capital where advanced UAVs are designed, abruptly burned down overnight.

A Russian drone may have come down in Zaręby Warchoły, Ostrow County, Poland, which is some way from the border. Investigations are underway.

The Turkish Foreign Minister has said that Russia may be forced back to the negotiating table, probably on the basis of the American deal from Alaska, within months due to economic and military pressure.

Andrej Babiš, the winner of the Czech elections (albeit in coalition), has said that the Czech-led ammunition initiative will be transferred to NATO, and Ukraine must do more work to be ready for EU membership.

Ukraine has hit Lukoil's Kstovo Oil Refinery in Nizhny Novgorod region, as well as the Kirishi Oil Refinery in Leningrad region. Kirishi has been hit multiple times already recently. 

A Russian storm group trying to use a subterranean tunnel to advance in Kharkiv Oblast came under heavy attack by patriotic Ukrainian pigs, who had located the tunnel entrance and moved inside. The Russians suffered unclear injuries in the porcine assault and for some reason posted video of the attack, possibly under the delusion it would not be used immediately for comedy purposes.

Putin has said that Ukrainian use of Tomahawk missiles would result in the destruction of the "positive tendencies which have started to emerge in US-Russian relations," which is not going to have anyone shaking in their boots.

Albanian prime minister Edi Rama, a leading candidate for "funniest world leader," jokingly demanded that Macron apologise for not thanking President Trump for solving the war between Albania and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani President Aliyev was standing right next to Macron and burst out laughing as well.

Ukraine dropped the hammer on the main thermal power plants in both Belgorod and Bryansk. Bryansk managed to get back online but almost all of Belgorod city (pop. ~400,000) was plunged into darkness an hour ago and is still out. The Luch power substation took a direct hit and may have been destroyed altogether, the Russians will have to reroute power through a different part of the network.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 October 2025 - 09:13 PM

[Werthead]

Interesting video here on Ukraine's new ability to strike at Russian energy facilities.

Good note in the comments that Ukraine uses backup gasoline-powered generators, which they now have in vast numbers along with substantial amounts of fuel brought in from the west. Russia's fuel crisis means they don't have the same reserves to run their own generators, and obviously Russia extends way further north, so its northern cities are much more vulnerable to freezing in the winter. Not that Kyiv in a cold winter is a joke, but Murmansk, Archangelsk, St. Petersburg and Moscow get much colder.

Ukraine has kept up the pressure on Belgorod all day, hitting the thermal plant repeatedly, with drone strikes on electrical power substations and military targets. Some parts of the city got their power back, but others then blacked out. The attack has been pretty continuous, possibly unprecedented for Ukrainian strikes in the conflict so far.

Crimea's largest fuel terminal at Feodosia took a major hit and the terminal is ablaze. As of an hour ago, the first had been raging for 14 hours.

The Tyumen Oil Refinery, over 2000km from Ukraine, has been hit with significant damage.

Two S-400 launchers were hit in Crimea, with a radar and a launch element destroyed. An S-400 radar element has also been destroyed near the main front in Donetsk. Ukrainian forces also fended off a major assault on Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, whilst Russia has been experimenting with ground-based robotics on the Pokrovsk front. A Kuryer grenade launcher system was destroyed.

A Ukrainian drone affixed itself to a Russian Buk air defence system whilst it was in transit and stayed there for an hour or so. Russian personnel at the launch site tried to remove it with a stick and, when, that failed, called HQ for advice. The advice appears to have been "what the hell are you doing?" as they promptly all ran away. The Ukrainian operators, presumably still laughing, then detonated the drone and destroyed the unit.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 October 2025 - 09:08 PM

[Mentalist]

Drone Strike in Tyumen today, apparently. On a refinery.
This is the heart of Western Siberian oil production. almost 2000 km from UA. Most likely, the drones were launched from muscovy itself, as a few were jammed and 3 fell on the refinery grounds w/o exploding.

Possibly also a hit on the Perm' refinery (1600 km), but info there is conflicting.

RN there's a duel b/w Belgorod and Kharkiv. Kharkiv was hit at least 20 times, drones and ballistic missiles are being used. Belgorod had a few more missile strikes on its power infrastructure, the governor ordered diesel-powered emergency generators brought in.

Euroskeptic Populists won in Czech republic parliament election. They will probably need to make a coalition with the far-right anti-EU party, which wants an anti-EU referendum. Needless to say, support to UA is likely to be affected.


French govt collapsed again. Macron struggling, as apparently there's attempts to impeach him.

Multiple strikes on Crimea, hitting a bunch more radars, AA systems, and some ammo dumps. The fuel base in Feodosiya is still on fire, 2nd day in a row, another tank exploded, so that should help with keeping the deficit going.

UA and Denmark signed off on joint weapon production in Denmark. Supposedly, these are the Flamingo cruise missiles; to be honest, I'm getting sick of hearing about the would-be-domestic-wunderwaffen, I'd rather not know they exist until they start blowing shit up in large quantities.

Greece isn't just transferring artilly ammo, but also 60 high-caliber SPGs. Czech Republic was considering sending its last party of modernized T-72s, since they're getting Leopard 2s to replace them, but this might be doubtful now.


There's been a bit of pushback in the S Donets'k axis, with the orc advances being slowed down, and UAF claims to have pushed the enemy back from a cluster of villages away from Orestopil'; However, this is still the most unstable portion of the frontline. Some reports that the forward isolated orc groups on the "Dobropillya salient" are being cleaned up totally, but no strong confirmations. Both sides are operating in small groups of 2-5 people at a time, dodging multitudes of of hovering spotter drones; the front lines are extremely blurred as the result, and its becoming harder and harder to determine actual areas of control.



Overall, the orcs are shifting their attention to long-range air war again, since they seem to have hit production capacity to sustain daily intensive bombardments. UA's started hitting back at power objects, but the primary focus is still refineries, though it's unclear how close they are to a critical threshold.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is hitting the huge iron extraction plant at Staryi Oskil in Belgorod Oblast. This is the site responsible for 50% of Russia's iron extraction and processing.

A drone hit one of the cooling towers at the Russian Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant. Both Ukraine and, surprisingly, Rosenergoatom, confirm the drone was heading to another target and was knocked off course by electronic jamming. The Ural Turbine Plant in Yekaterinburg has also been hit.

Oleksiivka, Sumy Oblast remains highly contested, with Ukrainian air strikes being called in to help dislodge Russian forces.

Fifty Russian soldiers killed and eight captured during a fierce engagement at Sichneve, Dnipropetrovsk. The settlement is now back in Ukrainian hands.

The Feodosia oil terminal in Crimea is still burning, with the smoke plume now extending dozens of miles inland.

OSINT sources are saying that Russia now has only around 2,800 tanks left in storage, the absolute dregs of the dregs. Of these, exactly 0% are in good condition.

Ukraine confirms deployment and use of the "Long Neptune" cruise missile variant, with a range of over 1,000km.

A Ukrainian strike on power services in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast cut off electricity to the entire region for most of the day.

Multiple Russian industries are moving to 3 and 4-day work weeks:

◾ The Kirov plant in St. Petersburg sent its employees on vacation in the summer and, starting in August, switched 900 workers to a shortened work week. The production decline is estimated at 20–25%.
◾ Rostselmash has been working three days a week since August. Sales of agricultural machinery in Russia have fallen by 30%, and demand for combine harvesters has decreased by one and a half times.
◾ KamAZ has also announced that it will switch departments with underutilized capacity to a reduced work schedule starting August 1. Sales of trucks over 14 tons have plummeted by almost 60%.
◾ AutoVAZ introduced a four-day workweek at the end of September, despite government support and the withdrawal of Western brands. From January to September 2025, the company sold 211,300 Lada vehicles – almost 25% fewer than the previous year.
◾ The Chelyabinsk Electrometallurgical Combine, which produces 80% of Russia's ferroalloys, switched 1,200 employees to a four-day workweek starting September 1.
◾ The Yaroslavl Motor Plant and the Yaroslavl Diesel Equipment Plant are also operating on a reduced schedule.
◾ The Tikhvin Car Plant (7,000 employees) announced a four-day workweek until the end of November.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 October 2025 - 08:35 PM

[Werthead]

Russian stocks now at a 3-year low and continuing to drop. Rosneft and Gazprom stocks are dropping so fast they seem to be triggering panic-selling. Interesting.

During an exchange of artillery fire, a modern Ukrainian artillery gun hit and destroyed a 1930s ML-20 Russian howitzer, which feels like some Civilization II nonsense.

Italy is delivering APCs and IFVs to Ukraine, whilst the EU has agreed to a non-repayable payment of 6 billion euros to directly fund the Ukrainian military.

The Thales explosive assembly plant in Liège, Belgium, has been overflown by drones. The company is demanding greater protection.

Seeking warmer ties with the EU and USA, and getting increasingly annoyed with Russian threats to their sovereignty, Kazakhstan has shut down its border with Russia for in-depth security checks on sanctioned goods, particularly goods getting through from China.

A wounded Russian soldier was spotted by Ukrainian drones. He was calling for evacuation but was being ignored by headquarters. In desperation he amputated his own leg. Due to his location, it was not feasible to capture him, so the Ukrainians had to leave him there. It did not appear he was rescued.

Some drone pilots from the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the 66th Mechanized Brigade, Ukraine, have wracked up 200 Russian KIAs. Each.

Russia's lost another MiG-31, crashing during landing.

Zelensky has said that Ukraine will join Pakistan in nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he gives Ukraine Tomahawk missiles...which is certainly an original approach.

Russia claims to have shot down a Flamingo missile with a Pantsir AA system.

Massive queues for petrol in Donetsk.

Russia has deployed Pantsir S-1 AA systems to Pyongyang as part of its deal with North Korea.

In a fairly spectacular move, Azerbaijani media is reporting that the Russian Ministry of Defence deliberately ordered the shooting down of the Azal passenger flight from Baku to Grozny.

Russian forces preparing to pull out of Yunakivka, and possibly all of Sumy Oblast. Soldiers in one battalion were ordered to level the town before withdrawal, so they have been systematically destroying buildings and infrastructure.

The UK has completed delivery to Ukraine of hundreds of air defence missiles, five months ahead of schedule.

Ukraine has completed a technical feasibility report on integrating Tomahawk into its existing systems, satisfying US requests for more information on storage, maintenance and target selection.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 10 October 2025 - 08:39 PM

[Mentalist]

Realistically, a metric fuckton of people will nominate Trump for things he did (and will do) prior to January 2026.
And he is going to be a strong candidate.... next year.

There wasn't a snowball's chance in hell he was going to win it in 2025, and I'm so happy I can finally stop hearing about this.


I also really wish we'd stop hearing about the Flamingo missiles until we see swarms of them flying across the border and blowing shit up.

[Werthead]

I am wondering if Flamingo is all hype no trousers, and it's just been a frog-boiling exercise to get people used to the idea of cruise missiles before Tomahawk shows up. Flamingo's targeting accuracy seems to not be the best (even after updates) and if the Russian report of them shooting one down is legit (ha!) it's not the most sophisticated weapon.

Then again maybe Ukraine is playing 6D Connect Four and we see 150 of these hitting Russian strategic and energy targets with icy precision in one coordinated attack that plunges half the Russian Federation into darkness for a night or two. Given the way things are going, I have no idea what option is closer to the truth.

Belgium is receiving its F-35s ahead of schedule, so will be sending its F-16s to Ukraine similarly early.

The Bashneft-Ufa refinery (Bashnafta-UNPZ) in Ufa, Bashkortostan, 1,400 km from Ukraine’s border, has been hit by drones. The central processing unit, which is not easy to replace, was destroyed.

Very heavy fighting in multiple areas of Donetsk. Russia is counter-attacking hard north of Pokrovsk, trying to link up with some of the troops previously cut off by the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Several armoured pushes into heavily-defended areas, resulting in predictable heavy Russian losses. The heaviest was between Shakhove and Volodymyrivka, where Russia sent 40 vehicles into combat and only half came back.

Russia has lost a Ka-52 attack helicopter and its crew.

Russia had planned to host a Pan-Arab Summit in Russia, but had to cancel it after barely anyone from the Arab world agreed to show up.

Former CIA head David Petraeus has said that Russia's National Welfare Fund, already teetering on the edge, should run out in 2026, which will force Russia to make some incredibly painful choices on its spending options.

Interesting book about Putin's younger days and personal life. The Russian writers had to flee the country, unsurprising. Most interesting is that they got some of Putin's circles who have since left the country or are just really annoyed with him to talk.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 October 2025 - 10:29 PM

[Werthead]

Part of the Russian front in Zaporizhzhia has weakened, allowing Ukrainian forces to advance 3.5km in just a couple of days, liberating Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky (two separate villages) and Stepove.

Ukrainian drone operators have brought the Rylsk-Lgov highway in Kursk under drone overwatch and are now destroying all transport vehicles operating on the road.

Ukraine has received an Alkmaar-class minehunter from the Netherlands. A second ship is expected to be delivered before the end of the year.

Ukraine has launched a concerted attack on western Crimea, with multiple drones and reported Flamingo missiles targeting Russian radars and AA positions (at least Flamingo launch footage has been shown).

Heavy Ukrainian drone strikes on targets in Donetsk city. A hypermarket was set ablaze, presumably by either a jammed drone, Russian AA ordinance or a mistake (as western allies would frown on Ukraine targeting single-use civilian infrastructure). Locals quickly arrived, not to help fight the fire, but to take social media videos of cars doing donuts in front of the blaze.

At great expense, a Russian unit was able to fund a new EW drone jammer, which was proudly mounted on a truck and driven to their position. Within minutes Ukrainian drones had destroyed the jammer. The Russians had unkind words about the effectiveness of the equipment.

Some reports that the Russian submarine Novorossiysk suffered a major malfunction three weeks ago that led to the diesel engine being flooded. The submarine had to limp home to port.

The Russian oil terminal at Feodosia is ablaze. Again.

Feodosia has had the absolute hell hammered out of it. The FIRMS analysis shows fires broke out in almost every corner of the facility. Five storage tanks were destroyed, two substations have been obliterated. The facility was burning for most of the day, unclear if it's out now. Obviously all oil transactions at the terminal have ceased, costing Russia huge sums per day.

The Russia hit a UN humanitarian convoy in Kherson, on the Ukrainian side of the front. Drones and artillery struck trucks delivering aid. One vehicle destroyed, one crippled, two damaged but escaped. Fortunately, no casualties.

Heavy fighting continuing on the Dobropillia front. Russia has attacked Nykanorivka and Zatyshok (both regained only a few weeks ago) but Ukraine liberated Mayak, which allows them to outflank that Russian advance. Ukraine did regain around 4 square kilometres in their favour, however.

Ukraine has exerted firmer control of Oleksiivka in Sumy, with Russian forces counter-attacking but unsuccessfully so far.

Russia's seaborne fuel exports are down 17% in September alone after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and terminals. This doesn't include the colossal damage to Feodosia wreaked in two attacks alone this month.

The US will announce key weapons shipments to Ukraine. Media sources playing down Tomahawk, hinting that Trump might not make a final decision until the last minute.

Russia still frantically trying to plug that hole on the Zaporizhzhia front.

1200 reported Russian losses yesterday is the highest daily total in some time (usual note that daily casualties are much higher than this, but Ukraine's effectiveness in identifying losses on the battlefield, same day, has been reduced by recon drone countermeasures).

India has reduced Russian crude imports by over 45% between June and September.

Bloomberg, quoting the IEA: Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure have so far cut Russia's crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the IEA said, adding that it sees Russian processing rates at "just under 5 million barrels a day (mb/d) through June 2026."

Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 mb/d, the lowest in a decade, excluding April 2020 during the pandemic. To compensate for the decline, Moscow increased crude exports to 5.1 mb/d, a record high since May 2023.

Still, Russia's oil export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the agency estimated. The decline came as Moscow's crude supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, were offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports.

Putin has admitted that Russia accidentally show down the Azerbaijani airliner, has apologised and offered reparations, apparently in an attempt to shore up deteriorating relations and influence with Azerbaijan. I think this is a bit too late in the day.

An illegal "street protest" was held in St. Petersburg, with young Russians dancing to anti-war songs and listening to a rapper openly calling for regime change:  "I wanna watch ballet — let the swans dance!" Nobody arrested, which was surprising.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 14 October 2025 - 11:39 PM

[Mentalist]

US manufacturer showed off new truck launchers capable of launching HIMARS, Tomahawk missiles or Switchblade 600 drones. They just happened to finalize the design.


The important thing about Feodosiya is that it was the biggest import point- the terminal where crude and other fuel products could be unloaded from tankers into fuel tanks, and then be distributed, more locally, via either trucks or rail. Now most supply has to come through Kerch, which is a notable bottleneck- and you obviously can't bring in as much by train as you could via an oil tanker.

Tomorrow is the next Rammstein meeting in Brussels, so there'll probably be more anti-air systems announcements; though in order to deal with the air strikes, UA needs money to ramp up interceptor frone production first; and secondly it needs better deep strike capabilities to level the Alabuga drone factory (and other similar facilities).Because trying to intercept enverything is a bit of a losing battle proposition.

The recent counter-attacking operations (calling it a counter-offensive would be overestimating the scale) on the Orikhiv Axis in Zaporizhya helped UAF regain some territory along the Yanchekrak river. After Stepove, the only other settlement N of the river will be Lobkove. If they are able to push the orcs back behind the river, then they'll put a real flankling pinch on the salient that's trying to push via Kam'yans'ke (which is split in half by the Yanchekrak where it joins the Dnipro) towards Stepnohirs'k. Again, if they are able to establish themselves there, they'll be in artillery range of Zaporizhya (city). And, as is becoming far more worrying- close to FPV drone range. Unlike artillery shelling, where residents get at least some warning of incoming shellings, indiscriminate FPV drone attacks on civilians can be launched by a DRG from nearly anywhere. These types of attacks are far more likely to spur panic and evacuations among civilian populations.

There's a lot of conflicting info on the Dobropillya salient, and the orcs' attempts to regain initiative and try to "counter-surround" the attacking UAF troops. Situation remains murky, and Syrsky and co's daily pronouncements of "in some areas of the Pokrovs'k front, we've advanced 1.6 km" in the situation where there absolutely is no stable line of control aren't really helping.

The orcs continue feeling their budget crunch. Regional transfers are being cut, so now they are looking at legislating so that unregistered self-employed & unemployed citizens should be forced to pay for their own mandatory health insurance (currently, the regional budgets cover them). This addresses both the regions' immediate money shortages, but also the state's more long-term objective to crack down on those who are still financially independent from the state, as putler's camarilla is trying to push for restoration of the state-centric economy.

[Werthead]

As usual, Putin has tugged Trump's strings and he has responded: a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest in the next two weeks, where likely nothing will happen, and in the meantime Tomahawks are off the table. 

The Hvardiis'ke oil depot in Crimea has been hit and hit hard, with two fuel tanks ablaze. The current assessment at the Feodosia terminal is that eight tanks have been destroyed there, with huge infrastructure damage to the rest of the facility.

A Russian Su-30SM was lost last night over occupied Crimea. It appears to have been shot down in a friendly fire incident.

The EU is preparing to tap between €140 and €165 billion in frozen Russian assets as a loan to Ukraine.

A Russian conscript snapped during training in the Moscow region, killing two fellow soldiers and injuring another before being subdued.

The Vladimirskaya substation in Vladimir was hit by drones. This is a crucial node in Russia's electrical supply system.

The Avangard chemical plant in Russian Sterlitamak has been hit by a huge explosion. Unclear if it was sabotage, drone or accident.

Ukranian medics from the 3rd Army Corps undertook a rescue mission in...London? The medics were in London to discuss battlefield medical procedures learned from the war with British counterparts and unveil a film when they spotted a road traffic nearby, with a man significantly injured by a car. They stabilised his condition before an ambulance arrived.

A Russian human rights activist residing in Paris was saved by French security forces. Vladimir Osechkin was targeted for assassination by three Russian Dagestanis, possibly FSB agents. They were arrested by French police.

Girkin has issued a new missive, claiming that Russia is further from victory than in 2022, has lost too much personnel, and both the meat and the money is "running out."

[Macros]

Loan?

Just give Ukraine the assets

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 17 October 2025 - 09:40 PM, said:

Loan?

Just give Ukraine the assets

In order to give Ukraine the frozen assets, they would have to seize them.

And seizing them without a court order would be bad because *checks notes* it would undermine investors' confidence as to keeping their money in Europe.

So instead, they want to issue Ukraine an interest free loan. Where Moscow's future reparations obligations are considered collateral. So that then in the future, Moscow will have to pay Ukraine reparations, in order to get back its frozen assets. And Ukraine will use that reparations money (that's supposed to go towards reconstructing what the orcs destroyed) to pay off the loan to the EU (for wartime costs)

[Macros]

Sounds like a load of money moving twaddle.
Just give them the money, crush the orcs. Hopefully give Sauron a heart attack

[Tiste Simeon]

 Macros, on 18 October 2025 - 07:26 AM, said:

Sounds like a load of money moving twaddle.
Just give them the money, crush the orcs. Hopefully give Sauron a heart attack

In an ideal world that's exactly what would happen. I work in the international anti-money laundering and asset recovery arena (the process of crime act is huge!) and it's never that straightforward. Admittedly I've not come up against war related stuff in my job, but we're taking millions from the likes of ML/fraud gangs from the far east and that takes AGES to process. Can't imagine how complicated it gets with war and oligarchs etc.

[Werthead]

Reporting that Trump told Zelensky to give up on the Donbas region and got angry when he said no, but Trump indignantly denied that, saying a ceasefire on the current front line was his suggestion. Zelensky then apparently agreed, but said it was Witkoff who brought up Putin's talking points and then seemed confused and irritated when Zelensky contradicted them.

Other reporting that Putin agreed on the telephone call to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in return for Ukraine handing over all of Donetsk, but Russian reporting seems to contradict that, suggesting instead the idea is to halt the front line in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson where they are now and get all of Donetsk in return. Other occupied areas could be ceded, such as in Sumy and Kharkiv.

In other words, absolutely no forwards movement from Russia since Alaska, and one phone call from Putin is all it takes to stop the Tomahawk discussion.