[Werthead]

Recent analyses of Ukrainian offensive drone operations shows a systemic, almost platform-wide improvement on targeting and battlefield effectiveness.

Russian S-300 and S-400 launchers have been hit repeatedly, but in many cases the drones have ignored the actual missiles to destroy the radar control systems. Less flashy, but immensely more expensive and complicated to replace. It disables the SAM system more effectively than destroying the missiles (Russia can produce new missiles easily) or even the launchers, turning them into useless pieces of metal. Ukraine has also prioritised mid-range AA platforms for the first time, destroying dozens across Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This, combined with platform enhancements, has allowed the re-emergence of Ukrainian-Turkish Bayraktar drones.

Russian radar systems 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot and 55Zh6M Nebo-M radar systems have also been destroyed in Crimea.

A Ukrainian drone unit was being hunted down by Russian forces, to the point that they ran out of drones and ordered ballistic missile strikes on the suspected position instead. After watching Russia waste $12 million on four ballistic missile strikes in bemusement, the drone unit returned to base.

Four Ukrainian soldiers were trapped behind Russian lines in the summer of 2022. They evaded capture, but have finally managed to cross the lines and return home.

Slovakia seems to have agreed to back Ukraine's EU accession path. Orban remains opposed, despite Putin saying he has no objection.

The OSINT community has worked out that there are around 2,577 Ukrainian POWs being held by Russia. There are a further 680 individuals, including 91 civilians, whose status is uncertain.

On the Donetsk front, a Russian BM-21 Grad has been destroyed after it got too close to the front to target Ukrainian positions. More and more Russian heavy equipment has been lost in recent weeks after being pushed to take greater risks.

Ukraine has revealed that in August they carried out a special naval operation that destroyed a BL-680 boat, Harpoon-B radar and Groza EW system, with multiple Russians killed.

A huge 39N6 Kasta-2E2 radar station in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai was hit by Ukrainian drones. Damage assessment unclear, but the radar was covering a large part of southern Russia.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Sumy salient continuing and becoming more successful, with Ukraine advancing NE of Kindrativka and almost punching the Russian salient into two parts. However, both Russia and Ukraine have been rotating units out of Sumy to the Donetsk front. We may see the Sumy front become less active as units are moved elsewhere.

The US and Ukraine are discussing a $100 billion deal which would grant Ukraine access to more advanced American weapons systems whilst Washington would receive patents and IP rights to any modifications to those systems made in Ukraine. Ukraine would continue sharing battlefield intel and combat data with the United States.

Russian forces attempting a major breakthrough in the Myrnohrad sector were destroyed.

A further assessment of Russian refinery strikes suggests that Russia has now lost over 24.2% of its oil refinery capacity due to strikes by UAVs. 7 refineries have been hit, with 5 forced to halt operations and have not yet returned to full operational status. Ukraine is likely to continue the offensive. Civilian fuel shortages are continuing to spread through Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, plus the Russian Far East. Fuel shortages spreading to the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas would represent a huge loss of face and economic capacity.

Moscow has reportedly demanded a "decisive breakthrough" to take Pokrovsk in the coming weeks, and has detailed significant reinforcements to also try to take Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Pokrovsk's defence remains extremely tenacious, but the strategic situation around the town has shifted somewhat in Russia's favour, making along, grinding defensive battle for the city harder to achieve with very limited routes for Ukrainian resupply (as opposed to previous urban battles). Kramatorsk-Slovyansk is a much, much bigger ask. Ukrainian forces captured 26 Russian POWs near Pokrovsk in the last week and Ukrainian drones have switched to hitting Russian troop and equipment concentrations behind the lines.

Slovakia has shifted its stance, saying it will not provide ground troops as a security guarantee for Ukraine but will provide logistical support.

Ukrainian sources have estimated the following Russian losses for the summer campaign. This is based on visually-confirmed losses, Russian discussions on Telegram, and analysis of Russian death notice in the home press. There are likely to be overestimates and underestimates, and it'll be interesting to see what US and European estimates (which tend to lag 3-5 months behind Ukrainian ones, but end up being similar) say.

Personnel (KIA, wounded, captured, deserted or MIA): 94,430 (32,420 June, 33,220 July, 28,790 August)

Equipment (destroyed or damaged; in some cases may be recoverable): 32,176 (9,836 June, 10,897 July, 11,443 August)

Missiles: 592 launched, 384 shot down

Drones: 16,115 launched, 9,692 shot down

Number of combat engagements: 15,854 (5,304 June, 5,523 July, 5,027 August)

Number of air alerts: 4,350 (1,455 June, 1,776 July, 1,119 August)

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 September 2025 - 09:30 PM

[Mentalist]

Fortunately, the orc Marines tasked with attacking the Pokrovs'k- Myrnohrad agglomeration from the E brought along their commander. General Akhmedov. The man renowned for sending many, many armored columns in one-way assaults towards Vuhledar, who repeated the same tactics during his tenure on the Kurs'k- Sumy axis. And we're already seeing the same things around Myrnohrad.

Speaking of Sumy, DeepState unfortunately shows orc advances in Yunakivka, crossing the Loknya river. So things aren't exactly rosy.

Zelensky indicates that nearly 60% of UAF's equipment is now domestically produced. A number of Ukrainiain weapon producers (especially drone-makers) are unable to grow, b/c they are still restricted from exporting their wares. Kyiv is still slow to lift those bureaucratic limits.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has gained more ground than it lost since the start of August. In the last five weeks, Ukraine has liberated five times more territory than they have lost, mostly on the Pokrovsk front but some in Kharkiv and Sumy as well.

The current estimate is that 92 American citizens have been killed fighting for Ukraine as volunteer soldiers. Several thousand have served in total, with an unknown number wounded. Quite a few have done tours of duty and been discharged back home, in some cases after seeing some pretty horrendous engagements.

Russian milbloggers very angry after the stunts on the Kupyansk front, where soldiers were told to raise Russian flags behind enemy lines, allowing them to be destroyed almost instantly.

[Werthead]

Interesting claims that Ukraine's opportunistic counter-attacks on the Pokrovsk front are developing into a more sustained counter-offensive. Russia's over-extension in its mad dash through the lines towards Dobropillia seems to have opened its flanks to serious counter-attacks. After some time in the grey zone, Novoekonomichne now appears to be fully retaken and Razine is under attack. Ukrainian forces have gone further and rolled into areas more firmly held by Russia since before the counter-offensive. This is despite Russia reinforcing the area with some heavy units, apparently hoping for a larger-scaled breakthrough. Interesting to see how this goes.

There appears to have been a very heavy assault in Donetsk Oblast using drones, artillery and cruise missiles (Peklo mini-missiles were spotted, possibly Palyanytsya jet-drones, no Flamingos so far. The command centre of Russia's 41st Combined Arms Army was hit, along with the command post of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division. The Topaz Plant in Donetsk was destroyed.

Ukraine also launched a long-range drone strike which damaged the Vtorovo Pumping Station in Vladimir, supplying diesel to the Moscow ring pipeline. 

Russian Telegram channels commenting on the fuel shortages in Donetsk and Luhansk which have become more serious. Drivers are waiting up to 3 hours to refill, prices have jumped 90 rubles a litre and resellers are charging over 200. Fuel is rationed, and soldiers are forced to line up with civilians and pay out of their pockets, as the gas stations are not accepting even military credit.

Several cemeteries created to honour the fallen of the "special military operation" in Russia have been destroyed. In Yakutsk, a woman went to visit her brother's grave only to find the entire area had been bulldozed and levelled, with some plans to turn it into a park. Authorities said there may be some "walk of fame" monument to the fallen, but the individual graves would not longer be marked.

[Mentalist]

DeepState's map shows the edges of the grey zone at the base of the "dobropillya salient" to be 4 km apart.

There's some unconfirmed reporting that UAF has advanced as far as Fedorivka, which would put the distance to the Volodymirivka-Mayak-Novotorets'ke line at only 3 km. if that's what we're looking at, then its quite promising. But we need to wait and see, as we've been through this "Ukraine is about to pull of A MASSIVE ENCIRCLEMENT" song and dance often enough.


Slov'yan'sk-on-Kuban refinery in Krasnodar Krai reported halt of all operations.

[the broken]

Quote

Several cemeteries created to honour the fallen of the "special military operation" in Russia have been destroyed. In Yakutsk, a woman went to visit her brother's grave only to find the entire area had been bulldozed and levelled, with some plans to turn it into a park. Authorities said there may be some "walk of fame" monument to the fallen, but the individual graves would not longer be marked.

...Are they trying to spark a revolt?

Quote

Slightly weird conversation in Beijing where Xi and Putin joked that at 70 they are still children (Putin turns 73 next month, Xi just turned 72) and they expect biotech will make it possible to live to 150 before the end of this century. Putin also mused on cell-regeneration to become immortal. Putin definitely dwelling on his own mortality there.

Somewhat terrifying as they mentioned organ transplants.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is now pushing hard to collapse the entire Dobropillia salient, attacking along the Kazenyi Torets River from both north and south, with their forces now roughly 3500-4000m apart. Russian forces west of the river are now risking being cut off but are resisting. The head of the salient has also been reduced, and Kucheriv Yar is completely encircled.

Penza, south-east of Moscow, has taken a huge hit. Massive explosions and fire showing up on NASA FIRMS, a few km south of the town. Two gas pipelines have been disabled. 

Mariupol Airport has taken a series of hits. Multiple Russian vehicles guarding the airport have been destroyed or disabled.

The Russian budget deficit has increased to over twice the planned target for all of 2025 (with 4 months left). Energy exports are now at their lowest-ever-level since records began, with the record lowest level set last month likely to be broken (possibly significantly) this month. Pressure is high to reduce the key intereset rate, but this would accelerate deprecation and a massive increase in prices, possibly triggering capital flight and a full banking crisis. Putin has apparently - angrily - shut down a suggestion by Sberbank that Russia is now in a state of stagflation (other, less formal sources are saying Russia is in technical recession and has been in effective recession for months).

Poland is sealing its border with Belarus during joint Russian-Belarusian exercises. Russia has also increased rhetoric against Finland, saying that Finland has become "a hotbed of fascism."

This post has been edited by Werthead: 09 September 2025 - 02:02 PM

[Mentalist]

almost 2 dozen orc drones that were *supposedly* attacking Western UA entered deep into Polish airspace yesterday.
So deep that Warsaw, Lublin and Rzeszow airports were closed down, and NATO Air Force got scrambled to shoot a bunch down, with Italy launching AWACS planes in the baltics, and Netherlands flying in F 35s and fuel jets to supply and support the Poles.

15 downed drones have been recovered so far.

Poland is closing its border with Belarus for the duration of the Zapad exercises. This is hurting China, b/c the bulk of its UE trade goes thru that border.

Prior to that, the orcs dropped a guided bomb on a crowd of retirees lined up next to a postal van to collect their pensions (b/c internet is iffy in frontline regions, so e-transfers don't work). 24 people were killed, 19 injured. Considering these are the outskirts of Kramatorsk, most of these elderly people were probably native Russian speakers.

DeepState hasn't updated its map since the 7th. This could mean good things in the ongoing attempt to isolate the Dobropillya salient, but we arent' seeing orc TG panic yet, its best to hold off any hype.

New Ramstein meeting has some European states making further pledges to support the UAF with equipment.

[Werthead]

According to some sources, the majority of the entire 51st Russian Combined Arms Army is at risk of encirclement and either surrender or destruction on the Pokrovsk front. This would eclipse Ukraine's loss of the 36th Brigade in Mariupol at the start of the war, with a thousand prisoners taken. Ukraine is pushing forwards, with some reports of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka being liberated.

A Russian column of tanks and IFVs in Zaporizhzhia got stuck in a traffic jam and then repeatedly hit by drones.

Rybar (prominent Russian milblogger) warning that Ukraine is systematically destroying Russian AA, communications hubs, logistics hubs, delivery centres and command posts across Crimea. They first targeted the western and southern coasts, destroying so much that Bayraktar drones (mostly inactive since late 2022 due to being outstripped by Russian defences) could operate freely, and have been advancing steadily across the peninsula. The focus on Pokrovsk and trying to reinforce AA units close to the front to prevent Ukrainian air superiority is preventing them from rushing AA replacements to Crimea, so the situation deteriorates further. He warns of Ukraine gaining air superiority with impunity over Crimea, which would then allow Ukraine to pummel everything in sight like Israel was able to do with Iran. Also concerns that this could in time expand along the entire occupation zone; Russia can't build and replace S-300 and S-400 radar units at anything like the speed needed.

The Russian electronic surveillance vessel Spasatel Ilyin has been hit by Ukrainian drones. The ship suffered heavy damage to its bridge, navigation and communication systems. The captain was injured.

Ukrainian drone operations in the Serebryanske Forest, Luhansk Oblast, destroyed multiple artillery and infantary forces.

Poland is expressing worry about 40,000 Russian and Belarusian troops conducting their Zapad drills within a few miles of the Polish border. Poland has been making defensive preparations now for months.

Unconfirmed reporting that Kadyrov has been ignoring Moscow's advice on handling a serious illness in favour of self-diagnosis and treatment, resulting in growing frustration. Moscow is very keen not to see unrest in Chechnya should Kadyrov die or be incapacitated.

[Werthead]

The north Pokrovsk salient appears to have divided into two three pockets, one completely encircled, a second almost so and a third where the encirclement lines are still ~2km apart but are grinding forwards. Multiple Russian units are inside these pockets, including some special forces surged into the area to either exploit the Dobropillia breakthrough (which then collapsed) or to take part in the planned "final assault" on Pokrovsk from the north. It looks like Ukraine may have turned what was supposed to be a major offensive into a desperate defensive battle which, so far, Russia is losing, to the tune of thousands of casualties and hundreds of PoWs taken. Ukrainian units involved include the 33rd and 425th Air Assault Regiments, 1st Assault Regiment, 24th and 25th Assault Battalions, and the 79th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades.

Obviously we've seen promising encirclement actions before fizzle out, so this could go the same way, but so far, promising.

Some analysis that Russia's manpower situation along several areas of the front have become super critical, forcing Russia to remove over 30,000 troops from occupied Kherson Oblast to maintain offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk. A few weeks ago there were around 60,000 troops on the Kherson front, so Russia has halved its presence there (the 11th Air Assault Brigade has been rotated into the area, but that's only around 2,000 combat-capable troops). Russian troops in Kherson are warning this is dangerous, they can't maintain their attacks on the river mouth islands and hold the coastal peninsulas plus the whole river with that number of troops.

Ukraine launched over 220 drones in a series of large strikes on Russian territory, including Bryansk and even an oil refinery north-west of St. Petersburg, 950km from the Ukrainian border. Primorsk Export Terminal took several hits, with a tanker (part of Russia's "shadow fleet") set ablaze in the harbour and a pumping station destroyed.

Sixty Croatian M-84 tanks have arrived in Ukraine.

One German politician has urged that NATO member states resurrect their plan to engage all Russian drones and missiles within AA range of their launchers over the territory of Ukraine.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 12 September 2025 - 04:01 PM

[Mentalist]

Until I see columns of orc prisoners, I don't believe it.

last night's strikes apparently also hit a number of pumping stations.

Global markets are spooked at the possibility of the Baltic oil route being disrupted, so oil index started climbing again.

NATO secretaty Rutte is promising more defensive assets to the Eastern flank. We'll have to wait and see how that pans out. I'm guessing the orcs will keep probing NATO airspace with drones from time to time, because why not? Then they might start to "accidentally" fall on things like power substation or cell comms towers- small infrastructure damage, not really worth starting a war over.
Putler continues to plan to boil the NATO frog slowly.

[Werthead]

NATO is well aware of that danger, which is why they've put various options on the table. One is to shoot down all drones that come within AA range of NATO defences, including over Ukraine. I suspect that won't include Belarusian or Russian airspace (over Kaliningrad), at least in the first instance.

Another idea has been to expand NATO AA coverage into western Ukraine as far as Lviv, and to open a civilian air corridor to Lviv Airport to allow civil aviation to start again in Ukraine. I suspect some airlines would be hesitant to test that, but Russian aircraft have not been able to operate over Ukrainian airspace for some time so that might be relatively safe.

[Mentalist]

I'm currently mulling over the following scenario in my head:

One of these gerbera/geran' drones falls on an Estonian (or Latvian) TDF bunker (those are typically 5-10 km away from the border). One (or several) volunteer servicemen are killed. The orcs claim "if you didn't try jamming it, this wouldn't have happened, so it's not our fault it crossed the border".

What do the NATO bigwigs in paris, Berlin, London, Rome and Brussels do?

[Werthead]

Russia is trying to buy back its S-400 launchers from Turkey amidst a rapidly-escalating AA shortage on the front. Ukraine has destroyed further Buk systems overnight.

Russia was using 4km-long pipelines in the Kupyansk sector to advance behind Ukrainian lines. Ukraine has located and destroyed several of these pipelines. Since they've been rumbled, Russian soldiers have been sharing videos of the experience of using the pipes, which was unpleasant.

Shadow fleet tankers Kusto and Cai Yun were damaged in the attack on Primorsk, near St. Petersburg. The tanker terminal was shut down for over a day.

Russian swimmers crossed a river to raise the Russian flag over, Filiia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainians eliminated them and returned the Ukrainian flag. Russian soldiers seem really annoyed about this operations, as they are resulting in deaths, severe injuries or captures for basically a TikTok moment. The "Kadyrovisation" of the entire Russian army is not something they like.

Ukraine EW systems have reportedly been upgraded and can now target Kinzhal semi-hypersonic missiles. The targeting effectiveness of Kinzhal has degraded significantly in recent months, now frequently missing the target, sometimes by miles. Ukraine also appears to be integrating Israeli-inspired targeting systems, which can track incoming ordinance and only fires an interceptor (whether that's a Patriot missile or rocket drone) if it confirms it will hit something valuable.

Russia lost an Su-35 in a landing accident at Kubinka Airport in Moscow.

A Russian drone violated Romanian airspace by around 10km before returning to Ukrainian airspace. Romanian fighters intercepted but did not shoot down.

Poland also sounded air alerts after drones came close to the border, but apparently did not cross.

Unconfirmed, but Ukraine is reported to have retaken Novokostyantynivka on the Sumy front and pushing hard along the rest of that front. Russia might have no choice but to withdraw from the Sumy salient to hold more favourable defensive lines on the international border.

Ukraine's recent attacks have impacted 42% of Russia's total oil production and taken around 20% offline for significant periods. Interesting to see if Ukraine can keep that up, as that's a tactic that could really have war-ending potential.

Ukraine and the UK are collaborating on a massive drone production programme, which will see thousands of interceptor drones built each month in the UK and then transferred to Ukraine. Ukraine will share IP and patents on the interceptor drone, which will allow UK companies to build the interceptors at large scale for other NATO nations.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 14 September 2025 - 10:31 PM

[Werthead]

Significant engagements near Mala Tokmachka on the Robotyne front. Russian forces was repulsed with heavy losses, including a tank destroyed by a direct anti-tank missile hit. We haven't seen these for a while. This front, where Russia was expected to make a big move, has become more active recently, but there are some signs of troops being transferred to the Pokrovsk front.

Pankivka on the north Pokrovsk front has been retaken by Ukraine, leaving a second major contingent of Russian troops almost totally cut off. Four infantry brigades have been trying to relieve them but have been held off with heavy losses of their own. One report that between 6,000 and 10,000 Russian troops are strung out along this increasingly battered salient, although the number fully encircled is much lower (100-200 at the moment with around 1,000 likely to be fully encircled if the current momentum continues).

In a surprise move, Belarus has invited American military observers to witness the Zapad-25 exercises. Some suggestions the move was unexpected by the Russians as well. As ever, Lukashenko playing an interesting game. He is playing off Putin, Xi and Trump and benefiting from being in the middle.

Belarusian nations were also detained in Warsaw after flying a drone over a Polish government building. The drone has been shot down. 

Russia has resorted to direct bartering, with a direct exchange with China and Pakistan, sending wheat and oil in return for electrical components. This technically negates some of the sanctions as no money changes hands.

US Ukrainian envoy Keith Kellogg has said that Russia is losing the war, that minor gains on the battlefield are cloaking a massive attrition of men, material, ammunition, resources and the economy. He has reiterated that he has told Trump this directly, and believes he cut through Trump's belief that Russia is winning. Trump has also called Russia "the aggressor" for the first time.

The Kirishi refinery near St. Petersburg has been hit and is burning, and the Bashneft Novo-Oil Refinery in Bashkortostan, also struck.

The British have joined Operation Eastern Sentry, with multiple aircraft now patrolling the skies near the Belarusian and Russian borders over Poland and Lithuania. Some reports that the aircraft have open authorisation to engage any target that enters NATO airspace.

What the hell.

Russian forces in Oleksiivka, Sumy, were preparing to fall back as the rest of the front collapsed. They were then told to hold fast and then nothing happened. Ukraine is now attacking hard into their flanks and might be about to cut off several hundred Russian troops in another encirclement. It looks like the Russian troops themselves have said screw that and are trying to fight their way out. Most of the western part of the Sumy salient is now gone.

Ukrainian special forces launched an operation based the headquarters of the 47th Battalion of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade, which is near Vladivostok (!). There was a series of large explosions that resulted in several deaths and more injuries among the troops. They are blaming it on a gas explosion.

Zelensky notes Ukraine's readiness to engage aerial targets dwarfs anything in Europe. During a recent attack, Ukraine shot down 700 out of 810 drones. Poland only managed 4 out of 19. Ukraine stands ready to provide assistance, advice and training (and has been already, to some extent). Zelensky also says that Russia has planned five heavy offensive operations for 2025. Ukraine has defeated three of them.

Small gas chains are going bankrupt in Russia amidst ongoing fuel shortages. Occupied Melitopol is the latest area to have their fuel supplies completely dry up. Transneft has told producers its storage capacity has been maxed out and they may have to drop oil output. The Kremlin is apparently unamused.

Unconfirmed attack on Morozovsk Airfield, Rostov Oblast. It appears that parked aircraft were destroyed. The Saratov oil refinery has been attacked again, with fires reported.

Russian Telegram channels urgently demanding the evacuation of Oleksiivka. Reinforcements from the 30th Motor Rifle Regiment have arrived but been described as "pensioners and drunks." They claim entire regiments were obliterated in the battle for Kondrativka and the situation in Oleksiivka looks far worse.

Modi and Trump had a phone call for Modi's birthday and apparently toned down some of their recent disagreements.

Ukraine has released 10,000 prisoners for recruitment to the Ukrainian military. The plan has been criticised and compared to Russia's similar plans, but only certain prisoners are eligible: those sentenced for national security crimes, murder, sexual violence and assault, major corruption and terrorism are not applicable. 

Russian saboteur groups attempted bypass the Donetsk front, dressed as civilians. They were identified and arrested. There are ongoing problems with these saboteur groups as Russian infiltrators either do not speak Ukrainian, or do so with a notable accent, whilst many more Ukrainians are fluent in Russian and can infiltrate Russian positions with greater ease.

For some reason Russian personnel filmed themselves killing a horse for fun.

Putin's United Russia Party has recently promoted many veterans of the invasion into deputies and junior roles in the party, including "elected" officials. Putin is reportedly concerned over what might happen should the war end and hundreds of thousands of injured and traumatised troops return home and attempt to reintegrate into civilian life.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 September 2025 - 08:18 PM

[Werthead]

Poland has had a bright idea. They've kept the border with Belarus sealed and said they will do so whilst drone incursions continue, possibly as long as the Ukrainian war continues.

China, in a very uncharacteristic burst of energy, sent officials to Warsaw to almost plead with Poland to open the border. China's belt and road route goes through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland and then disperses goods across Europe. Keeping the border shut with no real alternative route available (the Baltic States are not going to help, Ukraine is at war, Russia's ports on the Black Sea do not have capacity) could result in serious economic hits on Chinese exports.

Poland has apparently presented the situation as a way for China to encourage Russia to wind down the conflict in the near future.

Interesting approach.

Russian propagandist Maksim Kalashnikov has publicly admitted that Russia's military operations have failed. In fact, he's said that Russia may have to withdraw in full from Ukraine, abandoning Donetsk and Luhansk. He notes that the Russians brought "ruin to Novorossiya," destroying the "most Russian" parts of the country and devastating so many settlements and industry that Russia simply cannot afford to repair it all and get it working again. He believes that Russia has lost the support of the people of Donetsk and Luhansk, and they'd now prefer to live under Kyiv once more. "The chance was missed in 2014."

A Kenyan national fighting under Russian colours has been captured. The individual travelled to Russia as a tourist, but was also interesting in work possibilities. He signed a work contract, thinking it was for a regular job, but was instead forced into the army. He was only given a week's training before being sent to the front. He escaped and spent two days making his way to the Ukrainian lines and surrendering to the 57th Otaman Kost Horiienko Motorised Brigade.

Gas prices in Luhansk and Donetsk are now three times what they were a few months ago, according to one local. Interestingly, she continues to refer to them as the LPR and DPR rather than as part of Russia. Prices in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast are also rising quickly. A man in occupied Donetsk has also been filmed by neighbours using a pump to get water into his flat, bypassing his neighbours, who were left with nothing.

A Russian state TV show admitted that the theatre in Mariupol, which was bombed killing dozens of civilians, was destroyed by Russian forces, not Ukrainians.

Dmitry Kozak has resigned as deputy head of Putin's government. Koazk is the most senior-known Kremlin figure to oppose the war (apart possibly from Nabiullina, who offered to resign and was turned down if the operation was launched). He apparently tried to dissuade Putin from launching the invasion and has recently proposed direct peace talks with Kyiv.

Sixteen children kidnapped by Russia have returned to Ukraine.

A sloppy Russian TV documentary on Russian drone operators allowed Ukrainian operators to identify their headquarters in the Patriot exhibition centre outside Moscow and hit it with a drone attack.

Ukrainian reconnaissance units investigating a captured Russian equipment depot were bemused to locate detonators with Nazi symbols on them. They realised the detonators had been imported from Germany to the Soviet Union in 1939, and Russia had not gotten round to using them even in WWII.

Ukraine is hitting Russian positions in Shevchenko, south of Pokrovsk, hard. Drones and airstrikes are pummelling the positions. According to some suggestions, several large Russian formations have massed there to attack Pokrovsk from the south whilst other elite units attacked from the north. Since Ukraine instead destroyed the positions to the north, these forces have been told to hold fast, which has done nothing other than provide Ukraine with a target-rich environment.

Ukraine seems to be targeting Russian air defences around occupied Donetsk City.

Germany has provided Ukraine with 33,000 AI "strike kits" to turn Ukrainian drones into swarm forces.

Russia launched a coordinated attack on Ukraine's rail network, trying to do to Ukraine what Ukraine has been doing to Russia for months. The attack was a failure, with all drones destroyed, disabled by EW or simply missing their targets.

Ukraine has destroyed a Russian battalion-level headquarters near the Dnipro River, south of Kamyanske in the far north of Kherson Oblast (near the border with Zaporizhzhia).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 September 2025 - 06:39 PM

[Mentalist]

Kalashnikov is currently based in Dubai, iirc, so he can afford to be more candid, as far as Z-heads go. But the hardcore imperialists (like Strelkov/Girkin) also have the tendency to be dramatic.

It's insanely unlikely that the orcs would pull out of Donbas barring a total mutiny and 1917-style breakdown of command. The West would be less than enthused about such a total disaster for Moscow, b/c it could lead to collapse, chaos, and China eating most of Siberia, making it literally unstoppable.

From what I've seen, the orcs did hit a number of substations powering the railways last night. No critical damage, but unpleasant. of the 190-ofdd drones last night, about 60 got through, and there were quite a few impacts all over the country.

DeepState is indicating that the orcs continue to inch into the the built-up outskirts of Kup'yans'k. The city is now actively disputed, which means we're likely to see slow, incremental progress until they reach the bridges. At which point the bridgehean E of the Oskil would need to be abandoned. Barring a serious counter-attack to eliminate the enemy presence W of the Oskil upstream from the city, but unfortunately I don't think that's likely.

[Werthead]

Russian jets have violated Estonian airspace. Three MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland and remained there for twelve minutes, only withdrawing when approached by NATO aircraft.

Not too much else so far today, but yesterday's Russian casualty count was almost 1,200 for the day, the highest reported in months.

It's clear that far more Russian casualties are being inflicted than the official count (in the 800-1,000 margin for months now) suggests, but the Ukrainian count is relying on geolocated, verified and timed footage and this has become much harder to obtain, with the Russians having gotten moderately better at removing bodies from the battlefield. The drone warfare also means that Ukrainian recon drones counting bodies are sometimes being jammed or intercepted or just prevented from carrying out their work. The Russians are also much less likely now to give casualty figures out on radio in the clear, as they used to. Casualty figures are thus being worked out from secondary approaches (death notices in Russian media, funeral reports etc) which takes time. Thus the figures given for the preceding day are quite a bit down on earlier parts of the war (when casualties were sometimes reported at over 2,000 a day), but once these secondary sources are compared, it's not been that far down from the highpoint of the war for daily casualty reports.

The figures ticking upwards for the last few weeks still show that Russia is sustaining enormous casualties as it pushes and in turn is being pushed on the Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kupyansk and Pokrovsk fronts.

[Mentalist]

Roman Alyokhin, the z-head voenkor who got busted on video plotting to pull off a tax evasion scheme with "humanitarian aid" from a big business benefactor, was declared a "foreign agent".

Voenkors are starting to panic over this, since his accusation lacks the (previously thought necessary) allegations of being sponsored by foreign citizens. The criteria are getting wider, and even less defined than before. The Z-heads are (correctly) worried that the state can turn on their independent thinking next.

Another big muscovite exec committed suicide.

EU finalized 19th sanctions package. They plan to stop importing muscovite LNG by the end of next year, and not by the end of 2027, as was initially planned. The sanctions package isn't adopted yet, but rumour has it the EU is willing to unfreeze 550 million that were withheld from Hungary for other violations, so as to get their consent. So we'll see, I guess.

Ukraine unveiled a submarine drone. Feels more like a PR stunt, as I don't see why you'd do that before it start blowing stuff up.


UAF's 10th Corps that's responsible for defending Kup'yans'k continues to insist that the "clearance operation" is ongoing, and nothing super-serious is happening. I'm somewhat concerned by this. Unless we see good new DeepState updates showing the frontline getting pushed back N and away from the city's outskirts, I'm going to grow more concerned.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 20 September 2025 - 02:43 AM