[Tattersail_]

i wonder what rule I broke, i never did find out, mafia 101....

[Gust Hubb]

Fuck. Sorry tats. That's why I shouldn't try positive repping on the phone. Correction coming shortly

[Vengeance]

Tattersail, on 01 August 2012 - 12:13 PM, said:

i wonder what rule I broke, i never did find out, mafia 101....

You spoke about fight mafia. Rule 1. Never talk about Fight Mafia.

[Vengeance]

Gust Hubb, on 01 August 2012 - 01:54 PM, said:

Fuck. Sorry tats. That's why I shouldn't try positive repping on the phone. Correction coming shortly

I corrected your fat fingers...

[Tattersail_]

Vengeance, on 01 August 2012 - 02:21 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 01 August 2012 - 12:13 PM, said:

i wonder what rule I broke, i never did find out, mafia 101....

You spoke about fight mafia. Rule 1. Never talk about Fight Mafia.

Did I? but, But you told me not to!

Vengeance, on 01 August 2012 - 02:22 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 01 August 2012 - 01:54 PM, said:

Fuck. Sorry tats. That's why I shouldn't try positive repping on the phone. Correction coming shortly

I'm getting lots of rep here, he corrected me elsewhere. (fat fingers made me laugh)

I corrected your fat fingers...

[Tattersail_]

they lynch wrong, who do the killers choose to kill?

it'll go into d day with everyone looking scummy ha

[Roldom]

Can anyone give me any advice on what I did wrong as a finder? Ive never been one before and I certainly didnt help much this time...

[Mott]

I thought you done very well and you were put at a disadvantage by my mistake, as was Ment. You seemed well focused and reasonable and didn't gain much heat but didn't seem to smooth which is important for roled town. I can see why you revealed at that point but I think considering the uncertainty the best way to go about it would have been to build a convincing case on one of them from what you could pick up in thread from knowing what you knew. One of the problems with this of course was low content in general on the fist couple of days.

There are others here though who no doubt can give you much better insight.


Still, before you went you gave town all you knew. What is really quite damaging is this insistence that a finder will CF as such, Atrahal is the only one that seems willing to challenge this view and Telas too to a certain extent. I can remember more games in which the finder has CF'd town than not and if I was going to CF roles in such a manner I would have not put 'he was town' etc. but 'He was RI' to make the distinction.

[HoosierDaddy]

Since when do finders CF as finders?

I've seen that in a low TMDI about once in the last 20 or so games.

[Gust Hubb]

And Hoosier is always watching.

Always.

[HoosierDaddy]

"Judging. Watching."

[Path-Shaper]

Telas:

Quote

No one seems to want to push an Atrahal lynch, aside from Tellan and Liosan right now--Liosan in a bit of OMGUS since he's implicated, and I can't get a clear read on Sorrit. I want to pretend he's town just so that the town isn't as worthless and low-posty as I think.

This means that either:

a) Atrahal is scum, so the other killer won't want to push the lynch. But he also doesn't want to be seen defending too aggressively since no one really has a reason to trust Atrahal. This would mean Sorrit and Tellan are PI. Maybe Sorrit as the second scum, then? Since I don't think he has a legitimate reason to list me as more scummy than Atrahal, since he has only gut against me.

Atrahal is town, and Tellan/Liosan are our killer pair. Hmm this makes sense, actually.

I think the best solution is to push against Liosan and see how Tellan responds.

Quote

God I just read my self-contradiction there. I need to do a careful and thorough review. But I'm way too tired and lazy to bother.

Quote

Ok. Thought-vomit mode.

First off, I'm intentionally withholding my NA right now. I will be around at the time of the lynch and plan on revealing during night. Regardless of whether we hit scum I should get that out to help town with more information--if I live the night and I've guarded a roled inno (say atrahal, idk) they will know I am inno. It'll be much more useful if we hit scum, I think, but I don't want to leave town hanging if I do get NKed and it's 2 scum vs 3 town d-day. If we do hit a scum I can guard and therefore CI someone or find the last scum. The only hole is if I jump the gun on the reveal, and scum can withhold--then we are in some trouble, since we will lynch a town (1 scum 5 town -> 1 scum 4 town), I will have a 1 in 4 guess for the last scum, and then I'm probably lynched the next day--unless I can convince town that such a fake reveal would be way better if I had revealed healer, not guard.

So, Kalse's fake reveal is pretty much the lynchpin of what's going on right now. The possible ways it could have taken place are:

1.) Kalse was the real finder and simply received a scum find on the symp. This would suggest a modding mistake that couldn't be corrected without ruining the game. This would make Kaschan and someone else scum. Though I think this scenario is less likely than the others, it behooves me to look at who kaschan's partner would be if he were scum. The fact I am pressuring Kaschan right now could help me, but it seems like people are letting Kaschan respond for himself.
Kaschan is playing in accordance with scum play right now, laying low and being utterly unhelpful to town. I really want to see how people respond to my pressure on Kaschan so I can gain some insight into his partner.
If this is the case, there's a good chance we are at d-day, unless the real symp died well before. All the more reason to be careful with the lynch today.
So: if this is the scenario, the scum are (I'm bolding this so I can just add them up later): Kaschan and (Note to self: do some research)

2.) Kalse was deflecting from Tellan, but not Rashan. This jives with Sorrit's observations about the timing of the Kalse reveal: he was getting pressured and about to die. This brings up the question, then: who is Tellan's partner? It would have to be someone who is hopping on the Atrahal bandwagon; in this case, Liosan. In fact, a decent portion of Tellan's case against Atrahal is that Kalse defended only Atrahal and Liosan. Also, Liosan responds to my questioning of Kalse symping him as suggesting Kalse is fake-symping him while neglecting to interact with Atrahal--yet Tellan's case is that Kalse was symping Atrahal as well. Liosan suggests that he thinks Tellan is PI in the same post (#983401). Yet in post #983218 Liosan says that we should look at Tellan, since Kalse said he came up inno in his "find." He's flip-flopping here and creating confusion with wifom. In his only early interaction with Kalse, Liosan makes a weak accusation that Kalse is partnered with Atrahal and communicating offline. I think that the flip-flopping and holes in Liosan's defense make this a pretty plausible scenario: Tellan and Liosan

3.) Kalse was deflecting from Rashan, but not Tellan. If this were the case, why not just let Tellan get lynched? Unlikely.

4.) Kalse was deflecting from Tellan and Rashan. This is just like (2), only it also tells us whom the scum is. If this is the case then Liosan is town, and he is voting Atrahal right now to show he's innocent. The problem with this scenario is that there's so little information about Rashan.

5.) Kalse was fake-symping Tellan and / or Rashan in a bold scum play. This seems unlikely since, as Sorrit pointed out, Kalse could've just hopped on the Tellan bandwagon and gotten this lynch. Then he could've pulled his fake reveal routine on the next day, forced a lynch on someone he knew was inno and could come up with some sort of excuse for. There could be a few possibilities for his masters:
a.) Tellan and Kaschan -- since he PIs Kaschan by being exposed as the symp, and Tellan was there to redirect the lynch onto SL. I think this is would've been incredibly ballsy, like I've said before, and I'll discount this possibility as too unlikely. If it is actually the case then Kalse is my man of the match--well played. But I think it's just me being incredibly paranoid.
b.) 2 among Sorrit, Liosan, Atrahal -- Atrahal doesn't find this case plausible. Liosan seems to have bought into Sorrit's "CF finder" bit, which I still think is absolutely ridiculous. Maybe things have changed since when I played a lot, but I don't remember ability CFs EVER happening, even in high-TMDI games, let alone M&P. This makes me find both Sorrit and Liosan suspicious. The fact Sorrit wanted to push a lynch Kalse so aggressively seems to PI him, but he has sown so much confusion I think that scumminess outweighs any innoness that action tells me. Especially since confirming the Kalse reveal on non-d-day is mafia 101, so it seemed like a very easy way to distance oneself from someone you know is your symp, especially since you know that he fucked up on the timing. Liosan has been voting Atrahal all game, even though Atrahal has never really been the target of a train until now. So:
Sorrit + Liosan -- they've agreed, and both have stated a willingness lynch Atrahal.
Atrahal + Liosan -- for some reason my gut makes me think these 2 are scummy, but Liosan has been so against Atrahal all game I don't think this is a likely possibility.
Sorrit + Atrahal -- Contrary to his expressed willingness to lynch Atrahal, Sorrit still finds me more suspicious and is still pushing a Tellan lynch. Either town play against someone he thinks is a more probable scum, or deflection. Atrahal pointed out the blatant hole in Sorrit's "we need to lynch Sorrit" bit and was with me in arguing against that stupid point. Also unlikely.
So, Sorrit Liosan is the most likely combination in this scenario I think.

Quote

Fuck, that gives me two scenarios each for Tellan, Liosan, and Kaschan. But if I discount my paranoia, I think I should build a case against Liosan, attack him for the holes in his self-defense, and see how people react.

Besides, if it comes down to Tellan vs Liosan vs Kaschan in equal measure, I will let Tellan live, because he has been participating and I like to think of myself as the mafia karma fairy.

As for Kaschan:
I think that if he is scum his partner is Liosan. Liosan has expressed that he thinks Kaschan is PI. Kaschan has expressed a willingness to follow with the Atrahal case. His only interaction relevant to Lio early game is first dismissing Rashan's case vs Lio as omgus, and then asking what the case on lio was before voting elsewhere (osseric).
Random thought: Kaschan was around for day 1 spam and participated plenty then disappeared.


I seem to have neglected Atrahal.

If Atrahal is scum, how would the Kalse situation had to have played out?
a.) Tellan or Rashan is his partner
b.) Back to the fake-symp case. Liosan is aboard the Atrahal train, so probably not him. Sorrit is disbelieving of the Atrahal train, but Atrahal argued with him. This will have to wait for Sorrit to comment after rereading Atrahal's case.

Telas is really taking a lot of different scenarios into consideration here but his reveal tomorrow might be of not much use, especially since it looks like they'll lynch town. The problem is there is no way in which to confirm his status except by him actually preventing something which is only going to happen if one killer is dead. Of course he's working on the assumption that there may be other roled town. But if he reveals when there is two scum left he is as good as dead. And it won't have given much information but weakened town considerably in end game.

[Path-Shaper]

Sorrit

Quote

This is why I hate mafia. Saw some things to incriminate Liosan, someone I'd cleared when Kalse voted Lio to L-2. Yet on reread, Kalse seems almost pressured to vote Lio.

That might change things to Lio. Unsure who his partner would be if so.

Quote

How about this PM. I have no idea which direction to focus. I've spun in all directions long enough. Guess if I don't get NKed, which is why I keep sticking to Tellan as my main scum, killers must think I'm harmless, then once its d day, I hope I can figure it out by then.

Tell crazy Kalse nice play. He spun our heads for a loop. None of it makes any sense to me, honestly.

Guess at this point, and it'll change to a different wrong choice in an hour, my best bet has to be Tellan. I can't see Kalse stopping a town Lynch, unless he made a calculation error. Seems like he would of just gone ahead and let us Lynch Tellan if he was Inno, and then did his insanity act.

If NOT Tellan, I then look at atrahal. Though I've yet to pressure atrahal much on thread, even though Kalse may have symped atrahal. Might be why I haven't been NKed yet, if atrahal is scum.

Quote

I feel I have to stick with Tellan as scum. I'll wait and see if they Lynch atrahal. I'm going to try to not have to be on atrahals train if I can help it. I want to know the other two willing to vote atrahal with Tellan and Liosan. That nets me more info than my being one of those votes.

If atrahal is scum, I think the other scum might vote for him to distance. I still won't clear Liosan or Tellan if atrahal is scum. Liosan and atrahal have been each others top picks for almost the whole game. Distancing? Guess it waits on IF they Lynch atrahal and IF he CFs scum.

I think they both might be found in atrahal, Tellan, and Liosan. My worry is that I don't know who the other scum is yet, if their not both in those 3.

Kaschan seems very odd. Both him and Rashan have hardly even been around. And Telas just seems like he's playing the perfect game, if he's scum OR town.

I hope I figure something out if I keep surviving.

And the killers:
Kasch

Quote

KL - yous till awake? What's the score, give me some thoughts before you crash (if it's not too late0

Rash

Quote

I am indeedy. I think we can pull an Atrahal lynch, and possibly a Lio lynch the day after, although if our symp is still alive that's d-day I suspect, but I'm not sure because I'm terrible at figuring these things out. I'm thinking Tellen or Sorrit for a night kill, I'm still wondering if Telas is our symp, I don't think he's strongly supported any cases against us once. Tellen, because the bastard is pushy and can think and Sorrit because I don't think anyone would think he's not town.

Kasch

Quote

maybe re: Atrahal lynch, we have to go with whoever the general feeling, want to be careful about voting together, we're running out of people to hide behind

I thought Telas before, but not sure anymore. Kalse did us such a favor, and Roldom is capable of pulling that off. If he was our symp, he deserves a prize.

Who is the least scummy/lynchable of the remaining players? I would like to get rid of someone that can't be lynched in one of our places, but Sorrit is so handy for his madness all over the place.

We are going to take some flak for the low posting in SH

Rash

Quote

Telas and Sorrit are it I guess. Everyone else is at least a little bit scumtastic.

You're right about the lynch. I'm kinda tempted to get my vote on now, but I don't know where we're sitting numbers wise, I don't know if bringing us close to a lynch at this point would be a good idea. I hate being late to lynch trains. And yet I always am.

Yeah I think we're going to get it in SH, but honestly, it's just bad luck. Besides, if I'd spent day one buffering up my post count by 20 votes like everyone else I'd be slap bang in the middle range all game

Not to self, talk more shit on day one. It was just piss poor luck that NO ONE was on when I was.

Kasch

Quote

tell me about bad luck, on top of my full work schedule & side business, I have had: ceiling cave in at home from water damage, boss left town, little girl broke her arm last night, A/C issues,lack of sleep- it never ends - makes me want to scream at the world



Wah wah wahPosted Image

[Path-Shaper]

Telas:

Quote

I'm going to be transparent about my reasons for voting Liosan. Scum might be able to turn it into my face and get me lynched but fuck, I'm way too lazy. If we lose, well, I blame whichever town don't believe me.

Quote

Provisional:

If Tellan is lynched and CFs scum, Guard Rashan
If Tellan is lynched and CFs town,
or if Tellan is not lynched,
Heal myself? Lol. I'm probably dead.

I really hope I'm right. I've spent so much time overthinking this situation I would be so sad if I was wrong.

Quote

Quote

just over 3 hours to lynch. I am going to bed in about 2 hours and want to be around for night to resolve. Please show up and vote / comment / express your criticisms everyone, so I don't miss the end of day.

Oops that could be interpreted as a slip. Better get my reveal put together.

Quote

Just for you, modgod::
Okay, looks like it's time for me to reveal: I am the guard.

There are some meta reasons that have influenced some of my actions / things I've said, but due to their questionable legality and my general distaste for using meta, I will omit them. What I will say is that I was informed guarding one of the scum pair does not stop the kill. That was why I've played so passively for most of the early game: in the hopes that I would survive long enough to help lynch 1 scum, then we'd have a soft find for the second killer.

On night 1, I guarded Atrahal. I didn't have much to go on, but he seemed pretty reasonable yet laying low.
On night 2, I guarded Tellan. This was because I wanted to test Kalse's proposition we had 2 independent NKs. If that were the case, there would have been 2 NKs (unless the killer pair was Atrahal / Tellan), but there wasn't. This was such insubstantial evidence I didn't really factor it into my suspicions.
On night 3, I guarded Kaschan. I placed this command after the Kalse reveal in case he was being truthful and didn't think to change it after we got the town CF. I didn't realize until afterward that guarding Kalse instead could verify his claim of having found Tellan, though we are assuming he was making up the find anyway. But if he had claimed he was guarded you would've seen me gunning for kaschan right away.
On night 4, I guarded Eloth in case he did try to claim finder, despite his prior insistence otherwise (which I reasoned could have been an attempt to avoid getting NKed).

Tonight, I will guard Rashan if we lynch Tellan. If we lynch elsewhere, I will guard whomever we think is the most probable partner. That way if we do lynch one of the scum, the partner is either found, or has withheld his kill and left us with one more town alive--so I've either won us the game or bought us a day.

Quote

Btw consider that provisional explicitly unconfirmed.

[Mentalist]

scum-coasting FTL.

it looks like I was symping 2 clones of Silencer.
I mean, it works, and I understand that RL can be a bitch... and yet.

[Mentalist]

gg, JLV

who are my bosses killing?

[JLV]

Just wanted to say I really enjoyed the scenes, Mott. Very pleasurable to read. Time to go shit myself, apparently.

[JLV]

Really?? Rashan and Kaschan? Fuck off. I quit.

I fucking understand the need to get rid of low posters, but lynching a low poster ever fucking day makes for shit mafia.

Fuckk off. Now what the fuck ahppened with the finder shit.
God I;m not used to being angry out of character.

[JLV]

Vengeance, on 26 July 2012 - 12:32 PM, said:

Completely fucking Random...sigh... Well nothing that you can do about that. At least in the last game ansible alted me and then went after me. Next time you run a paired killer with a symp. If you don't have enough players for the paired healers then go with finder and a healer. Or healer and vig or finder and vig. Or cult leader and healer and vig or FM and finder and Godfather....


Are you running the game through the MM?

Personally I hate Finder + Healer combo. Guard + healer is better imo. Finder + Healer with a lucky find early game = invincible revealed finder. Whereas a guard is only good once town stops sucking and kills a scum, which usually doesnt happen until late game, then there's a better chance of the healer being dead or if he isn;t, they deserve the invincible guard.

[Blend]

Gods, what a game. I screwed up on the finder CF, I take full credit for that. It's a shame, though, I was going on my limited M&P experience, but I didn't want to sound like I had no idea what I was talking about. Anyway, good game, sorry to rest of town if I screwed everyone up!