[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

It is, of course, possible that Johnson really has no bank accounts and just keeps all his money in sacks of cash hidden under his mattress. Another explanation could be that he has selective amnesia and has forgotten to disclose his assets for seven years. But several ethics experts offered another reason: Johnson is terrible at managing the money he makes and may be in massive debt.

What Is Happening With Mike Johnson’s Money? | The New Republic

He'll balance the budget by donating it to the Church... of Trump?... More or less.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Biden is [...] trailing Trump in five of the six most important battleground states [...] by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania [...] Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points

[...] In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

[...] voters across all income levels felt that Mr. Biden's policies had hurt them personally, while they credited Mr. Trump's policies for helping them. [...] gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for having helped them and Mr. Biden an 18-point disadvantage for having hurt them.

Trump Leads Biden in Nearly Every Battleground State, New Poll Finds - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

NYT article doesn't bother mentioning whether they included third-party candidates in the poll. However, their methodology section *does* include the percent who responded 'another candidate'... but it indicates that that response was 'volunteered'---which I'm pretty sure means the poll did not present it as an option. They also mark 'Don't know / Refused' as 'volunteered'. Many people would have assumed they were only supposed to pick Trump or Biden. Bad poll. Bad! (... And much much much worse candidates, of course....)

Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Though the same poll also shows that

Quote

A generic, unnamed Democrat [has] an 8-point lead over Trump — a 13-point swing from Biden.

Trump leading Biden in five swing states: Poll (axios.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 06 November 2023 - 05:13 PM

[amphibian]

The polls are awful though. I can functionally sum it up as "We tried to reach 5,000 people, 83 responded and we're extrapolating from that."

Any real life candidate is going to lost to a generic unnamed one because people imagine their golden standard and then prefer that.

It's an absolute failure of a question frame.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

amphibian, on 06 November 2023 - 05:35 PM, said:

The polls are awful though. I can functionally sum it up as "We tried to reach 5,000 people, 83 responded and we're extrapolating from that."

Any real life candidate is going to lost to a generic unnamed one because people imagine their golden standard and then prefer that.

It's an absolute failure of a question frame.

The actual wording (for the question Axios seems to be referring to with 'generic Democrat') is:

Quote

If Joe Biden were not the Democratic nominee, do you think you would:

Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate
Probably vote for the Democratic candidate
Probably vote for Donald Trump, the Republican
Definitely vote for Donald Trump, the Republican

Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

... though it also has Trump beating Kamala Harris (but by less than he's beating Biden...).

Dean Philips touts being relatively unknown as an advantage, saying he has consequently has less baggage. OTOH I'm already starting to sour on him a bit: he's bragging about having the most bipartisan voting record last year and the second-most bipartisan voting record this year, promising he would appoint Republicans to his cabinet (he claims he wants his administration to be a 'team of rivals' with a wide diversity of viewpoints, like Lincoln's), and claiming his choice of running mate would be a major surprise. And he says Biden is doing a great job... yeah, Dean Philips is doing a good job of generating baggage for himself already. I'm hoping that once his poll numbers tear open the flood gates he'll get swept away by the floods (... bringing in the Big Gretch, among others...).

[worry]

Azath must be sick. There were almost two fistfights in Congress today, one because Kevin McCarthy elbowed another guy in the back, and one because this dork got mad at a union boss's mean tweet.

[Cause]

That union boss has been expertly baiting that guy for a while now. I remember their last fight.

[amphibian]

It's gotta be the pleasure of a lifetime to have multiple times when a dumbass US Senator has tried to fight you and been ineffectually unable to and you can pretty much provoke it on demand.

[Cause]

It’s taken over a year and it’s still not done but George santos is finally toast. Ethics committee has referred his crimes to the department of justice. After the ethics committee had to act because the department of justice was indicting him on crimes.

Okay let’s ignore that stupidity. This guy clearly won his election by fraud. I’m glad he will get what he deserves but the fact he wasn’t forced out and a re-election held right away speaks volumes. Laws have to be put on the books about this.

If the house hadn’t been so disfunctional this cycle what if critical legislation had passed or failed because of his vote. Part of the reason he didn’t face justice sooner was because the margin in the house is so tight.

[Lady Bliss]

I don’t see this happening, but if a lot of democrats register republican, we could possibly get a least objectionable republican candidate on the 2024 ballot.

[Primateus]

Lady Bliss, on 17 November 2023 - 01:50 PM, said:

I don't see this happening, but if a lot of democrats register republican, we could possibly get a least objectionable republican candidate on the 2024 ballot.

Chris Christie? Has he not, despite being a corrupt dirtbag, managed to position himself as somehow the most reasonable candidate on the GOP lineup?

[Lady Bliss]

Primateus, on 17 November 2023 - 02:49 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 17 November 2023 - 01:50 PM, said:

I don't see this happening, but if a lot of democrats register republican, we could possibly get a least objectionable republican candidate on the 2024 ballot.

Chris Christie? Has he not, despite being a corrupt dirtbag, managed to position himself as somehow the most reasonable candidate on the GOP lineup?

Either him or Haley would be more tolerable to Trump if Biden tanks.

[Cause]

Lady Bliss, on 17 November 2023 - 01:50 PM, said:

I don’t see this happening, but if a lot of democrats register republican, we could possibly get a least objectionable republican candidate on the 2024 ballot.

The funny thing is I think this all the time. There seems multiple advantages to voting in your oppositions primaries rather than your owns.

Can you register as both a democrat and a republican or do they check the rolls? I actually still dont know how registering or voting works. I also find the idea of being registered to a political party rather off putting. It runs counter to my belief that my vote should be anonymous.

[amphibian]

They do lock you into a single primary if you register for a party.

The Republicans have sometimes flooded the small Working Families or Independent party registrations to hijack them and put forth candidates who are Republican, yet have a less conservative tag upon them.

It's not something I think works well for Democrats to re register then vote. The enrollment numbers affect public perception more than pulling left from within. Plus there's also ideological pull that happens to those who aren't firmly set in their views.

[Tsundoku]

amphibian, on 17 November 2023 - 04:13 PM, said:

Independent party

Sorry, that just seemed ... paradoxical?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Trump reposted [...] "I WOULD LIKE TO SEE LITITIA [sic] JAMES AND JUDGE ENGORON PLACED UNDER CITIZENS ARREST FOR BLATANT ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND HARASSMENT."

[...] Judge Arthur Engoron and New York Attorney General Letitia James, who are both involved in James' $250 million fraud lawsuit against Trump's family business.

[...] "It seems obvious to observers that Trump is trying to encourage his supporters—again—to do something that is dangerous and illegal," [...]

"At some point, these types of comments will result in him being put in jail pending some of these trials," Trump's former White House lawyer [said ...]

At least one legal expert said the post "could and should" make Trump liable for incitement, even though Trump was sharing someone else's "fantasy."

[...] Technically, New York does permit citizen's arrest, [...] "but only when the person being arrested has committed a felony in the presence of the person making the arrest." Neither Judge Engoron nor James have committed felonies in front of Trump—so the suggestion that Trump is simply trying to fight crime through legal means is absurd.

[...]

"The test for incitement is challenging for prosecutors," [...] "Trump's lawyers would say that his 'retruth' is not an endorsement of the underlying message, that since it is a 'fantasy' it lacks the necessary imminence for incitement, and also that by invoking an 'arrest,' he is only asking that the legal process function properly."

[...] former federal prosecutor in the Eastern District of Virginia, said the post lacks the immediacy necessary to show Trump wanted to incite someone to direct action.

"Incitement is a specific declaration to persuade somebody to engage in violence," [...]. "As they say: Close, but no cigar."

Trump's Citizen's Arrest 'Fantasy' Is a Dangerous Game (vice.com)

Guess he has his lawyers vet his 'truths' and 'retruths'?... No doubt he's asked them many times how far he can go without being at significant risk of prosecution....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 November 2023 - 09:36 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The recurring theme with Trump’s riffs on donuts is that they are only possible through fossil fuels.

“If you make donuts,” Trump said [...] “anything you make has to do—and when they ended our energy, we were energy-independent. Think of this.”

[...]

Trump gave another ode to the pairing of fossil fuels and donuts. He told Kudlow fossil fuels are “so big, it’s like all-encompassing. Everything—you make donuts in the oven and the trucks that deliver them. No matter what you do, it’s so much about energy.”

Even when Trump mentions other aspects of the economy in his tangents about crude oil and gasoline, donuts always find their way into the picture. “If you make donuts, if you make cake, [...] no matter what you do, energy is so big,” [...]

In fact, the $7 billion American donut industry is projected to grow another $3 billion by 2027, which analysts attribute to “increased snacking and indulgence consumption.”

[...]

One Trump adviser told The Daily Beast that they had no idea where Trump had picked up the donut line. They didn't even want to speculate, instead saying in a defeated manner, “I have no idea.”

The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment on the former president’s newfound preoccupation with donuts.

Donald Trump’s New 2024 Campaign Talking Point: Save the Donuts (thedailybeast.com)

Seems just like when Trump was posing in front of a bunch of Trump steaks when he was first running for president... #MasterManipulator #SoVerySubtle

And of course---oil-filled donuts. Oil-covered donut holes... all over the fingers (might as well eat them too... don't let energy go to waste!).

[Primateus]

Anyone think Trump might end up declaring himself a sovereign citizen if all his legal troubles go against him?

[amphibian]

Primateus, on 26 November 2023 - 11:16 AM, said:

Anyone think Trump might end up declaring himself a sovereign citizen if all his legal troubles go against him?

No, his whole thing is that he can flout the laws of this country because he's rich and so can other people because it's an American privilege given to those like him. The American part is important to his ability to keep money coming in, otherwise he'd have swapped citizenship to some other country in the 90s.

[Abyss]

amphibian, on 26 November 2023 - 04:09 PM, said:

Primateus, on 26 November 2023 - 11:16 AM, said:

Anyone think Trump might end up declaring himself a sovereign citizen if all his legal troubles go against him?

No, his whole thing is that he can flout the laws of this country because he's rich and so can other people because it's an American privilege given to those like him. The American part is important to his ability to keep money coming in, otherwise he'd have swapped citizenship to some other country in the 90s.

This.
Citizenship is valuable to him at least until conviction and he flees the country.

[worry]

Hell yeah~