[Maark Abbott]

Tiste Simeon, on 10 December 2023 - 09:48 PM, said:

Ok so I've been debating whether to comment on this these past couple of days. I wasn't sure I could be bothered to get involved in this part of the discussion but it's been sitting on my mind so I figured why not.

You guys know me, mostly. I'm friends with some of you IRL as a result of this forum so I'm hoping you'll t take that into account. And please know I am not offended by any of the preceding posts. I get it's a weird subject and especially for the Americans among us where this is a much bigger issue...

I believe in God. I read the bible and pray daily. I go to church. I speak to God and believe God speaks to me. This, my faith, is a huge part of who I am, of how I live and how I hope to bring up my children. It's as serious as I can get about anything to be honest.

I, as a Christian, believe in the words and the teachings of Christ. Jesus was someone who spoke truth to power, who fought against the religious authorities in an intellectual and spiritual way. He championed the low, the poor and the needy. Repeatedly. He had an awful lot to say about the rich, especially those who hoarded wealth and power and then hypocritically spoke like they had the higher authority and ethical high ground.

Sounding familiar?

He often spoke out and defended those who society deemed "unfit" or "outcast" or "unworthy." He did not schmooze with the rich and powerful and the times he is recorded as dining with them, he was unafraid in pointing out their faults and hypocrisy. He is, essentially, the conservatives worst nightmare.

Ooh and he never said a single thing about gay people!

When I read the nonsense that the folk at the GOP spew out it annoys me for so many reasons, not least that they have got it so completely and utterly wrong. So when some smug fascist who represents something almost anathema to the teaching they claim to follow says "God spoke to me and he said this..." I cringe.

Because as I said, I do believe God speaks. Heck, I am one of those who moved a long way because I believe it is what God wanted me to do. I'm willing to talk further on that if you want but basically it wasn't something that makes sense in any natural way. It cost us a heck of a lot and living here is way more expensive than where we used to live not to mention inconvenient to get to and from. But we believed I it was part of a divine will and we have seen blessings as a result.

I'm probably rambling a lot right now so I'll shut up. As I said I have not taken any offence from anything said before I just wanted to provide a slightly different POV (hopefully one not too insane sounding) I get that you guys don't believe in God and you probably think I'm just as nuts as the other guys. Or that this is some kind of No True Scotsman fallacy.

But the Jesus I follow is very different to Republican Jesus. If I was running for office I would not hide my faith but equally I would not rant about it in place of real practical things I'd want to do if I was elected.

In my work place now I don't hide who I am but I don't spend the whole time trying to force everyone else to change who they are. Jesus never did that. He just loved people in a radical non conformist way and they wanted to know more.

Anyway I've said my piece thanks to you guys if you actually read all that haha

SO basically, you are... dare I say it, an ACTUAL Christian, as in one who actually follows the teachings.

That's how it should be tbh

[Tiste Simeon]

Thank you all, honestly reading your responses has got me a little emotional. Thanks.

To answer Whisperzzz, as to the move it was quite a number of things. For starts I will say for me it is never just a clear once and done thing like these Republicans seem to suggest. It's more of a growing belief and a number of different "signs" for want of a better term. Like this is a big deal, I'm not going to uproot my family because of a single thought or feeling.

I discussed it with my wife, our parents, other people we love and trust. We didn't make immediate plans but waited to see if certain things came to pass (e.g. for work - the week after we kind of decided "yes we're going to do this but who knows when/how" a transfer opportunity came up to the police force. And later when I enquired I found I wasn't experienced enough for what they were looking for but I applied anyway and got it... Stuff like that.)

Anyway we managed to sell a house and move all our stuff across an ocean during the pandemic when people technically weren't allowed to do so. We didn't break any laws and obviously we're extremely careful but things fell into place for us.

It could be you think that it was a strong of coincidences but we don't believe that.

[Tiste Simeon]

I'd say additionally that anyone who claims to hear from God but everything they claim God is saying matches perfectly with their own wants, desires, ideologies, biases and prejudices, is more likely hearing something to strengthen their own position and power. Which sadly the church has been doing for centuries.

I also wanted to briefly touch on evangelism and the persistence of Christians in trying to convert. It's a tough one because when you sincerely believe that you have something that can change your life and bring peace through struggles and a joy that can't be quenched you want others to experience it too! I would honestly love you guys to know Jesus like I do but I also think that harassing people and steamrolling every conversation to that effect is putting people off. Plus if heaven is full of Republicans who'd want to go there right? But that's why I am quite open about my faith without (hopefully) being too pushy with it. You all know how to reach me privately if you ever have questions.

Jesus basically said it'll be surprising who is and isn't in heaven though so who knows hah.

[Cause]

The Supreme Court will fast track hearing if trump does or doesn’t have immunity for trying to rig an election while president. Seems obvious to me and that this is a good thing. With this court though? Won’t shock me if it goes the other way.

[Lady Bliss]

Starting to think that the GOPs push on an impeachment inquiry is just a tactic to delay budget discussions until next year. I’m not saying that it isn’t worth looking into, if only to prove Biden is innocent, but should obviously not be a priority.

[HoosierDaddy]

Lady Bliss, on 12 December 2023 - 01:46 PM, said:

Starting to think that the GOPs push on an impeachment inquiry is just a tactic to delay budget discussions until next year. I'm not saying that it isn't worth looking into, if only to prove Biden is innocent, but should obviously not be a priority.

Oh, this is far more simple than that. It's as simple as saying, "yeah, Trump might have 4 court cases going on, 3 of which are criminal, but the Democrats can't be trusted to not behave criminally either." It's a direct shot at the legitimacy of BOTH candidates, such that any edge that would have gone to Biden is now gone for those who don't actually read.

[Abyss]

HoosierDaddy, on 12 December 2023 - 02:28 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 12 December 2023 - 01:46 PM, said:

Starting to think that the GOPs push on an impeachment inquiry is just a tactic to delay budget discussions until next year. I'm not saying that it isn't worth looking into, if only to prove Biden is innocent, but should obviously not be a priority.

Oh, this is far more simple than that. It's as simple as saying, "yeah, Trump might have 4 court cases going on, 3 of which are criminal, but the Democrats can't be trusted to not behave criminally either." It's a direct shot at the legitimacy of BOTH candidates, such that any edge that would have gone to Biden is now gone for those who don't actually read.

the majority of those weren't going to vote for him in any event.

[Lady Bliss]

HoosierDaddy, on 12 December 2023 - 02:28 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 12 December 2023 - 01:46 PM, said:

Starting to think that the GOPs push on an impeachment inquiry is just a tactic to delay budget discussions until next year. I'm not saying that it isn't worth looking into, if only to prove Biden is innocent, but should obviously not be a priority.

Oh, this is far more simple than that. It's as simple as saying, "yeah, Trump might have 4 court cases going on, 3 of which are criminal, but the Democrats can't be trusted to not behave criminally either." It's a direct shot at the legitimacy of BOTH candidates, such that any edge that would have gone to Biden is now gone for those who don't actually read.

While I don’t disagree that this is happening, even staunch republicans are saying there isn’t any indication of anything “there” and feel that this is detracting away from more important conversations at the moment.

[HoosierDaddy]

Lady Bliss, on 12 December 2023 - 04:57 PM, said:

HoosierDaddy, on 12 December 2023 - 02:28 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 12 December 2023 - 01:46 PM, said:

Starting to think that the GOPs push on an impeachment inquiry is just a tactic to delay budget discussions until next year. I'm not saying that it isn't worth looking into, if only to prove Biden is innocent, but should obviously not be a priority.

Oh, this is far more simple than that. It's as simple as saying, "yeah, Trump might have 4 court cases going on, 3 of which are criminal, but the Democrats can't be trusted to not behave criminally either." It's a direct shot at the legitimacy of BOTH candidates, such that any edge that would have gone to Biden is now gone for those who don't actually read.

While I don't disagree that this is happening, even TRADITIONAL staunch republicans are saying there isn't any indication of anything "there" and feel that this is detracting away from more important conversations at the moment.

Let me correct that for you. The MAGA people, and they are the ones who hold positions of power within the House, do not care what is or is not factual. They care only for the optics that help Trump and how that helps the teeter-totter of public opinion.

Gaetz, Jordan, MTG, etc. care nothing for the truth and only the appearance.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

1. Trump is driven by revenge, whether it's particularly effective or not. And he's reportedly been personally pressing hard for Biden's impeachment.

2. MAGA in Congress are trying to be out-MAGA each other (and be MAGAier than any potential Trump-backed challengers... whether for their seat or the vice presidency or cabinet positions or their share of the spoils in once democracy's effectively over, etc.).

3. OTOH (from September):

Quote

some GOP lawmakers say "the real pressure" will be coming from their base.

How Trump has pushed House Republicans to go after Biden: 'They did it to me' - ABC News

From yesterday:

Quote

The share of Republicans who support launching impeachment proceedings has declined from 76% to 70% since September. [...] Voters are slightly more likely to support than oppose beginning the House GOP's next step to remove Biden from office, 44% to 40%.
[...] Among the heavily Republican-leaning sample of voters who now support an official inquiry, the survey suggests House GOP leaders' accusations that Biden is guilty of wrongdoing unworthy of his office is resonating more deeply than earlier this year.

[...] supporters of impeachment proceedings have become 6 points more likely to say that Biden "committed an impeachable offense" (from 52% to 58%), while the share who say he should face such an inquiry because he "is unfit to serve" has dropped 7 points (from 43% to 36%). [...]

[...] voters are nearly equally divided on what they perceive to be the underlying motive for the probe, with 43% saying evidence of wrongdoing and 41% saying motivation to damage Biden's political career. Roughly 2 in 3 Democrats blame politics, while 72% of Republicans say there is wrongdoing.

[...] Our latest survey documents continued dissatisfaction with Biden among key constituencies for the Democratic Party, such as young people and voters of color. However, declining support among GOP voters for beginning impeachment proceedings [...] shows that GOP leaders have some work to do to excite their own base.

Biden Impeachment Polling: Support Falls Among Republicans (morningconsult.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 December 2023 - 07:19 PM

[worry]

Hmm, what could he mean by this?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

worry, on 19 December 2023 - 03:46 PM, said:

Hmm, what could he mean by this?

In yesterday's New York Times:

Quote

[...] he isn’t attracting the backing of significant numbers of Black and Hispanic voters because they support white supremacy. His success is not a sign that America is prepared to embrace the ideas of the extreme right. Mr. Trump enjoys enduring support because he is perceived by many voters — often with good reason — as a pragmatic if unpredictable kind of moderate.

[...] On matters ranging from health care and entitlements to foreign policy and trade, Mr. Trump routinely rejected the most unpopular ideas of both political parties. Voters seem to have noticed this reality: When asked whether Mr. Trump was too conservative, not conservative enough or “not too far either way,” 57 percent of voters in a recent poll picked “not too far either way.” Only 27 percent of voters regarded him as too conservative.

[...] A second Trump term may indeed be more radical and less pragmatic than the first; it’s a possibility voters can’t dismiss, but also one that his first term gives them reason to discount. [...]

Perhaps that disparity reflects a lack of knowledge about the extent of Mr. Trump’s plans. Or it may indicate widespread dissatisfaction with the present state of affairs.

Opinion | The Secret to Trump’s Success Isn’t Authoritarianism - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The Atlantic:

Quote

Low-information voters are a normal part of the political landscape; in the 21st century, democracies face the added danger of disinformation efforts from authoritarians at home and hostile powers overseas.

But America faces an even more fundamental challenge as the 2024 elections approach: For too many voters, nothing seems to matter. [...] Trump approvingly quotes [...] Putin and evokes the language of Adolf Hitler, and yet Americans are so accustomed to Trump’s rhetoric at this point that the story gets relegated to page A10 [...] Biden presides over an economic “soft landing” that almost no one thought could happen, and his approval rating drops to 33 percent—below Jimmy Carter’s in the summer of 1980, when American hostages were being held in Iran, and inflation, at more than 14 percent, was well into a second year of double digits. (Inflation is currently 3.1 percent—and likely will go lower.)

[...] We use vibes to talk about all of this: We’re not in an actual recession, just a “vibecession,” where people feel like it’s a recession.

But you can’t solve imaginary recessions with real policies, just as you can’t cure imagined diseases with real medicine. We are experiencing a kind of political and economic hypochondria, where our good test results can’t possibly be true.

[...] people aren’t acting as if they’re living in an economic crisis. [...] few people are spending less, no matter how much they carp about inflation [...]

[...] if Americans are now stuck in the mode where nothing but vibes and feelings matter, much more is at risk than one or two elections. No democracy can long survive an electorate whose only guidance is emotion.

Feelings and Vibes Can’t Sustain a Democracy (msn.com)

[Cause]

I was actually pondering this very question recently. Not that Trump has a large following that is not necessarily surprising but half the country? Even now?

I cannot think of one supposed accomplishment of his presidency and this should be the half of the equation that matters most. The economy today under Biden has unemployment at 3.7%, the lowest inflation in the developed world. Yes Trump supporters will all claim that they are struggling today and that there money took them further under trump. Whose presidency included an economic collapse under Covid and who added 8 trillion to the deficient (Something I dont particularly focus on but which is used as a measure of financial soundness).

He cut the tax on corporations which doesnt help the average person, he kinda sorta built a wall that mexico didnt pay for. There is no new healthcare plan, he didnt pull the USA out of any wars. The USA was, still is and will remain an oil powerhouse regardless fo what he does.

I cannot recall all of his mistakes but they include:
Rape
Impeachment 1
Impeachment 2
Civil Fraud Trial
Jan 6th
Jan 6th trial
Classified documents trial
Dictator on Day 1 promise/Joke
Nearly all of his chiefs of staff, his atttorney general, his aides have all said he is unfit.

How does this man have a cult of personality in the face of all this. What do people see in him? Why do they believe he has there interests in heart when he clearly doesnt. I have spoken to people whose 'facts' by which they make decisions are clearly different to my own. That is part of it but its gone beyond reason for many. I am struggling to see his appeal at all at the moment.

I personally think its vital he lose, that may be what it takes for the republican party to realise they need to jettison their worst ten percent of the base in order to court new voters to be viable again. If they win its a slow detioration from here.

[worry]

I'm aware the NYT loves publishing right-wing "populists" like Matthew Schmitz to whitewash Trump's legacy, but his first term was extremely radical even if the results were sometimes dulled by his incompetence and a succession of embarrassing resignations by nakedly self-serving cabinet members.


I don't really know about the 'vibecession' in the second article. May be partially true, but if so -- where are those vibes originating? The ether? Or maybe institutions like the NYT that unashamedly publish things like the first article, platforming liars who can say with a straight face that DJT was a pragmatist in his first term, and not a blood-thirsty psychopath who just happened to face some institutional roadblocks and often enough got in his own way. Two things, by the way, that are much less likely to be true if he has a second term.

[worry]

Cause, on 19 December 2023 - 05:17 PM, said:

I was actually pondering this very question recently. Not that Trump has a large following that is not necessarily surprising but half the country? Even now?

I cannot think of one supposed accomplishment of his presidency and this should be the half of the equation that matters most. The economy today under Biden has unemployment at 3.7%, the lowest inflation in the developed world. Yes Trump supporters will all claim that they are struggling today and that there money took them further under trump. Whose presidency included an economic collapse under Covid and who added 8 trillion to the deficient (Something I dont particularly focus on but which is used as a measure of financial soundness).

He cut the tax on corporations which doesnt help the average person, he kinda sorta built a wall that mexico didnt pay for. There is no new healthcare plan, he didnt pull the USA out of any wars. The USA was, still is and will remain an oil powerhouse regardless fo what he does.

I cannot recall all of his mistakes but they include:
Rape
Impeachment 1
Impeachment 2
Civil Fraud Trial
Jan 6th
Jan 6th trial
Classified documents trial
Dictator on Day 1 promise/Joke
Nearly all of his chiefs of staff, his atttorney general, his aides have all said he is unfit.

How does this man have a cult of personality in the face of all this. What do people see in him? Why do they believe he has there interests in heart when he clearly doesnt. I have spoken to people whose 'facts' by which they make decisions are clearly different to my own. That is part of it but its gone beyond reason for many. I am struggling to see his appeal at all at the moment.

I personally think its vital he lose, that may be what it takes for the republican party to realise they need to jettison their worst ten percent of the base in order to court new voters to be viable again. If they win its a slow detioration from here.

You aren't wrong about these things, but the Republican Party is lost -- the Neo-cons used it to get obscenely rich over the past several decades, and all that's left is a carcass and its scavengers. The politically smartest man in the party -- Mitch McConnell -- understood that the real balance of things lies with judges. You have them on your side, and all other institutions fall in line. He would -- like the Reagans, the Cheneys, the Bushes -- kill the country to secure that power, because the wealth they amassed would (at least presumably) shield them and their loved ones from any consequences. This next round of Republicans -- Trump, MAGA, Stephen Miller, that guy at January 6 with the "Camp Auschwitz" t-shirt -- aren't nearly as smart, but they don't have to be. It's already dead, and they're the hyenas. What's next is the frenzy.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 19 December 2023 - 05:17 PM, said:

I was actually pondering this very question recently. Not that Trump has a large following that is not necessarily surprising but half the country? Even now?

I cannot think of one supposed accomplishment of his presidency and this should be the half of the equation that matters most. The economy today under Biden has unemployment at 3.7%, the lowest inflation in the developed world. Yes Trump supporters will all claim that they are struggling today and that there money took them further under trump. Whose presidency included an economic collapse under Covid and who added 8 trillion to the deficient (Something I dont particularly focus on but which is used as a measure of financial soundness).

He cut the tax on corporations which doesnt help the average person, he kinda sorta built a wall that mexico didnt pay for. There is no new healthcare plan, he didnt pull the USA out of any wars. The USA was, still is and will remain an oil powerhouse regardless fo what he does.

I cannot recall all of his mistakes but they include:
Rape
Impeachment 1
Impeachment 2
Civil Fraud Trial
Jan 6th
Jan 6th trial
Classified documents trial
Dictator on Day 1 promise/Joke
Nearly all of his chiefs of staff, his atttorney general, his aides have all said he is unfit.

How does this man have a cult of personality in the face of all this. What do people see in him? Why do they believe he has there interests in heart when he clearly doesnt. I have spoken to people whose 'facts' by which they make decisions are clearly different to my own. That is part of it but its gone beyond reason for many. I am struggling to see his appeal at all at the moment.

I personally think its vital he lose, that may be what it takes for the republican party to realise they need to jettison their worst ten percent of the base in order to court new voters to be viable again. If they win its a slow detioration from here.

Quote

As [...] Biden grows increasingly mystified by his unpopularity, he is also experiencing the worst polling of his presidency. This plummet was punctuated by last Thursday's release of several Bloomberg/Morning Consult surveys showing him getting swept in a series of battleground states. [...] on Tuesday, yet another New York Times/Siena College survey showed [...] Trump beating Biden nationally and, perhaps most shockingly, with young voters. [...]

Many [political scientists] will tell you that factors like economic conditions and the unemployment rate are better predictors of what will happen a year from now than polls. But many of these largely economic models failed badly in 2020, when the extraordinarily bad economic conditions [...] pointed to a massive loss for [...] Trump [...] had to basically throw out all of the economic data to avoid predicting an FDR-style landslide for Biden.

A lot of the data that informs this conventional wisdom about polling is from the pre-polarization era, when support for a presidential candidate could swing substantially based on unfolding events. [...] By contrast, today some researchers argue that our era of heightened partisan polarization is beginning to erode the predictive nature of economic conditions on election outcomes.

[...] under conditions of sharp polarization, "elections will tend to be shaped by underlying distributions of party loyalties rather than objective evaluations of incumbents' performance in office."

That is not great news for analysts hoping that improving economic conditions will change perceptions of the economy and thus Biden's fortunes in time for next November.

[...] what if voters come around on their views of the economy and still want to cashier Biden for Trump?

That's the outcome predicted by the available data today. Taken together, the picture painted by horse-race polling and approval ratings makes Biden possibly the most vulnerable incumbent president since scientific polling was invented.

Joe Biden's 2024 campaign polls vs. Donald Trump are historically bad. (slate.com)

Quote

Trump allies [said ...] they believed Roe—in bankrolling a DeSantis machine for the primary—"brought a mercenary army to a holy war."

How Ron DeSantis' $100 Million 'Death Star' Never Back Down Super PAC Collapsed (thedailybeast.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 20 December 2023 - 01:45 PM

[Cause]

Colerado state Supreme Court says Trump engaged in an insurrection and barred him from the states presidential elections. Pending Supreme Court review.

Supreme Court may reverse it but man that’s something.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 20 December 2023 - 02:02 PM, said:

Colerado state Supreme Court says Trump engaged in an insurrection and barred him from the states presidential elections. Pending Supreme Court review.

Supreme Court may reverse it but man that's something.

Yes, but...

Quote

ruling does not apply to other states [...] Colorado[...] is not a competitive state for Trump in the general election. However, if Trump were to be disqualified from the ballot in a swing state, it would put Republicans at a massive disadvantage.

The Colorado ruling stands in contrast with several recent legal decisions on the matter.

[...] Minnesota Supreme Court [...] said petitioners could try again in the context of the general election.

[...] Michigan[...] won't stop Trump from appearing on the state's 2024 Republican primary ballot[...] without determining whether the insurrection clause applied to Trump.

What to know about the Colorado Supreme Court's Trump ruling, and what happens next - CBS News

... and the Supreme Court will probably strike it down anyway. If it doesn't though that would be interesting... OTOH if enough states removed Trump from the ballot we'd probably end up with DeSantis winning the primary, and polls suggest he would beat Biden more easily than Trump would. DeSantis might not be as dangerous as Trump, but he aspires to abuse the legal system to install an Orban-like autocracy, and he's to the right of Trump on many issues (abortion, 'entitlements', vaccines, etc.).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 20 December 2023 - 03:14 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

On the plus (?) side, De Santis doesn't have the rabid fanaticism that the orange turd does and would likely have a way less united pack of morons behind him.

You'll note it's less united not less moronic.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

If the Supreme Court upholds it (which seems very unlikely) and enough state Supreme Courts kick Trump off the primary ballot for him to have no significant chance of still winning even in his own head (also unlikely I'd guess) then there's a small chance that a vengeful Trump may direct his supporters to back Ramaswamy instead and actually help him eke out a primary win... and then he would probably fare worse than Trump against Biden.

With one state Supreme Court explicitly saying the petitioners can try again for the general election, that also raises the question of what happens if Trump wins the primary and then is ruled ineligible.