[Khellendros]

With Tattersail's vote that makes four for twelve (too many numbers).

I just don't see there being two people who could be identified as MH by the finders. I think that would be pretty silly.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2. 20 hours and 7 minutes remaining
12 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Roldom, Shinrei, Tattersail, twelve, Vengeance

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

4 Votes for twelve ( Vengeance, Khellendros, Gust Hubb, Tattersail )

Players not voted: ansible, Grief, HiddenOne, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Roldom, Shinrei, twelve

[Roldom]

Tattersail, on 14 July 2011 - 09:30 PM, said:

It will be good to have train info. I have just thought that if MH could kill then it may have been in his best interest not to kill yesterday because then a finder may have revealed today and he may have seen it worth the cost to not kill day one to kill a finder on day 2. Speculation though but it does make sense. Although I do agree that it does not state in the OP that there is a killer out there other than our FK's.

just saw this xpost before i went

there cant be a killer on team scum, because that would be a hidden role which we are told in the OP there isnt any

[Path-Shaper]

xpost galore...


It is Day 2. 20 hours and 6 minutes remaining
12 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Roldom, Shinrei, Tattersail, twelve, Vengeance

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

4 Votes for twelve ( Vengeance, Khellendros, Gust Hubb, Tattersail )
1 Vote for Vengeance ( Roldom )

Players not voted: ansible, Grief, HiddenOne, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Shinrei, twelve

[Shinrei]

What the hell is the matter with you people? I give you the simple task of figuring out the math, and you give me Simple + Request = Clusterfuck^9.

I'm just going to happily ride around the jungle with my grossly overbese self. It seems people want to vote, so I'll vote too.

Vote twelve

[Shinrei]

Gah, you know what. For the same reason I stated yesterday, twelve has stuck his neck too far out and I don't think he's scum. Confused maybe, but not scum.

remove vote

[Khellendros]

At this point, Shinrei, unless you can come up with a viable alternative, we might end up with another no lynch. While not exactly world-ending, especially if the finders then do manage to find MH, it does have less benefit than lynching, for the reasons I outlined earlier. That is, the more of us there are when MH dies, the more people he can jump into and hide, the harder it is for us to find him. I know we don't want a situation where there's only a few of us remaining and to lynch the wrong person means that MH overwhelms us, but right now, with NINE people he can jump into, that's a fair few.


So if you don't like the twelve voting then I urge you, by all means, come up with a viable alternative, rather than just saying you don't like it.

[Vengeance]

Roldom, on 14 July 2011 - 09:35 PM, said:

i dont particularly feel like voting for twelve at the moment, i dont see why tat decided to vote for him just to get a lynch with 20 hours left.


I dont think theres a symp, just 2 MH and a successor

im going to vote for vengy,

he made a point about there only being one MH at a time which isnt true, and hes not the kind of player to misread the OP when it so clearly states something. I think he is trying to muddy the waters a little bit....

VOTE VENGENCE


and now im going to bed, im busy tomorrow morning but should be bk on around 10-11am gmt

The only way that it isn't true is if you are a second MH.

[twelve]

Vengeance, on 14 July 2011 - 07:00 PM, said:

We know that there are other rebel lords who are rebelling who are not MH because the OP said so at the beginning. All of this drivel about there being possibly two MH at the same time is drivel and probably propigated by one of the symps.

I'll give you that I may be wrong about there being 2 Meng Huos. Mainly because I ran some senarios and with two full Meng Huos in the game, scum never wins. It's not even close most of the time. I also ran those senarios with just 1 MH and I got 2 wins town and 2 wins scum. So I fully believe that there is only 1 scum player at any given time. I don't believe the replacement MH even knows they are a replacement until the current MH bites the dust. In my senarios scum easily won twice and barely lost once so adding a symp would make it too heavily weighted against town. Also in my senarios everyone clearly knew who the finders were. That was the key. It made narrowing down the field to choose a good lynch target critical. If the finders get themselves lynched then town doesn't even have a chance.

If you don't believe me run the senarios out yourself. It took a little time but it's doable. I plugged everyone's name into randomizer and I randomly selected two people to be the finders Then I plugged everyone else back into the randomizer and selected who would be Meng Huo. I did this first for 2 Meng Huos in the game and then later I did all the senerios with just one.

Then I used the randomizer to select 2 people to find but for everyone else to not lnych anyone. I repeated the find but no lynch until there were 6 players left as lynch targets. If the finders found MH with a kill instead then they would just go back to finding players all over again until they were down to 5-6 players or they used up their second kill. Then they would save their last kill as a last ditch effort. But if they didn't find MH with their finds then of the remaining uncleared players I used the randomizer to select someone in that field for a lynch. I would continue that until MH was lynched. Then I would switch back to finding until I hit the new MH with a find or there were 6 players left and then lynch some more. I continued that back and forth until the finders only had 1 find and had them stop finding altogether. Based on purely random selection I got the following results.

With 2 Meng Huos in the game 4 wins town 0 wins scum.
With 1 Meng Huo in the game it was a split. 2 wins Town and 2 Wins Scum.

Therefore before we try to lynch someone we need at least 2 days for the finders to narrow the field of possible targets and then we lynch someone in that sample size. I'm definately back to

vote night

This is going to be a boring ass game if this is right, which I think it is but town just can't have too many unsuccessful lynches.

[Grief]

I also read the OP as having two MHs at once(iirc, it says "He also is MH" or something similar about the first rebel). What wasn't clear was whether either MHs death would trigger the succession, or only the rebels(since they picked the successor).

[twelve]

Vengeance, on 14 July 2011 - 07:28 PM, said:

I am not randomly voting. I held off voting till I went to bed yesterday. Then I voted for HO because he was a little more suspicious then everyone else. Currently I am voting for Twelve because he is purposfully attempting to creat WIFOM by saying that there are two concurent MH and no symps. Which a person could only get out of the OP if they were purposfully ignoring everything else. We know as the town that we can only lynch 5 times WITHOUT A HIT or a NIGHT FK. We get a extra lynch for each time that the MH jumps/dies.

Funny that is exactly what I thought you were doing with all your talk of there are more than one scum out there other than Meng Huo.

[twelve]

Tattersail, on 14 July 2011 - 09:30 PM, said:

It will be good to have train info. I have just thought that if MH could kill then it may have been in his best interest not to kill yesterday because then a finder may have revealed today and he may have seen it worth the cost to not kill day one to kill a finder on day 2. Speculation though but it does make sense. Although I do agree that it does not state in the OP that there is a killer out there other than our FK's.

Train info is irrelevant in this game. There is only one scum at any given time. When you find and kill them then someone that wasn't scum now becomes scum and you start all over.

[Kurt Montandon]

Grief, on 14 July 2011 - 11:25 PM, said:

I also read the OP as having two MHs at once(iirc, it says "He also is MH" or something similar about the first rebel). What wasn't clear was whether either MHs death would trigger the succession, or only the rebels(since they picked the successor).

It almost sounds like a Master picking his Symp, and the Symp picking a successor to ... himsef? Or something. The wording is odd.

[twelve]

Khellendros, on 14 July 2011 - 10:26 PM, said:

At this point, Shinrei, unless you can come up with a viable alternative, we might end up with another no lynch. While not exactly world-ending, especially if the finders then do manage to find MH, it does have less benefit than lynching, for the reasons I outlined earlier. That is, the more of us there are when MH dies, the more people he can jump into and hide, the harder it is for us to find him. I know we don't want a situation where there's only a few of us remaining and to lynch the wrong person means that MH overwhelms us, but right now, with NINE people he can jump into, that's a fair few.


So if you don't like the twelve voting then I urge you, by all means, come up with a viable alternative, rather than just saying you don't like it.

Viable option = vote night or let day time out so finders can reveal who they are and who is not MH then we start to vote out players from smaller pool of suspects = higher probability that lynch will be successful.

[twelve]

I'm out. If I'm lynched then I apologize if everyone thought I was all over the board. If not and I hope town wises up and realizes that they need to lynch in conjunction with what info finders gives to improve our chances of winning. Otherwise Meng Huo will wipe the floor with town.

[Kurt Montandon]

twelve, on 14 July 2011 - 11:38 PM, said:

Viable option = vote night or let day time out so finders can reveal who they are and who is not MH then we start to vote out players from smaller pool of suspects = higher probability that lynch will be successful.

Finder reveals is just asking for trouble. You know this, so why advocate it?

[Shinrei]

twelve, on 14 July 2011 - 11:41 PM, said:

I'm out. If I'm lynched then I apologize if everyone thought I was all over the board. If not and I hope town wises up and realizes that they need to lynch in conjunction with what info finders gives to improve our chances of winning. Otherwise Meng Huo will wipe the floor with town.

You know, you've convinced me to a certain extent mostly because you are not all over the board, but rather consistant. Although I agree with Kurt as well that the finders revealing probably isn't the best idea. So we can do a hybrid of this strategy and half-ass the whole thing! Wheeee!

Besides, I secretly want vengy to rant at me at some point during this game.

vote night

[Gust Hubb]

Ok, if I am doing my statistics right, your method would take two nights the first Round, should the finders clear 4 people of being HM. The probability of them finding HM and killing him is about 0.45. Moreover, if we then end up with 6 people to guess at, we have a 1/6 of lynching HM randomly.

Round 2, finders again take two nights to clear 4 people (p (of finding HM) = 0.5 ) and we have a 1/5 chance of lynching HM randomly.

Round 3, finders take 2 nights to clear 2 people (p (of finding HM) =0.25 ) of and we have a 1/6 chance of lynching HM randomly.

Ideally (p=0.0055) we lynch HM 3 times in a row. We turn loose the finders to get in their three kills and thus ends the game, town wins.

I would actually like to see the code (formula) that you worked with twelve to come up with the scenario predictions. This work-through makes me think that your numbers may be contrived, however convincing you sound. However, if your code/formula is solid, perhaps we can run a few other situations that are more complex (and successful) than the finders first lynching second model or the lynch daily / find nightly model.

That is my very-weak-in-statistics take.

[Mentalist]

Gust Hubb, on 14 July 2011 - 07:30 PM, said:

Also, if there is cult, saying there is none is very suspicious.

wtf? where are you people getting a cult from?

meng Huo is basically Big Ben times 5
seriously, people, no need to make this more complicated.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2. 16 hours and 40 minutes remaining
12 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Roldom, Shinrei, Tattersail, twelve, Vengeance

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

4 Votes for twelve ( Vengeance, Khellendros, Gust Hubb, Tattersail )
1 Vote for Vengeance ( Roldom )
2 Votes for Night ( twelve, Shinrei )

Players not voted: ansible, Grief, HiddenOne, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist