[Grief]

Cause, on 12 March 2026 - 06:16 PM, said:

The Iranian economy I understand was in shambles before this. Inflation was 60%. They will rebuild but how long will it take and how will the economy cope. The oppression will have to ramp up to keep the country stable or the IRGC may collapse for econimic reasons. Also if they face collapse will they drag the whole of the gulf and the worlds oil with them in revenge. Im sure the USA has been planing contigencies for this war for decades, I doubt Heseth or Trump ever read them.

The economics in these scenarios tend to be unpredictable and can be very counter-intuitive.

For example, sanctions put on short-term pressure but when you look at economies that have been heavily sanctioned for a long time - like Iran - in some ways that's insulating.

War economies are famously capable of churning on by creating their own jobs and demand, at least while it's necessary for war, and domestic rebuilding projects are in some ways comparable to growth.

Not saying Iran's economy is in a great shape or something, not remotely, more that I don't think we should expect economics to end the war in any near-term timeframe. Or if anything I think it's more likely America that will blink first economically.

The American economy has far further to fall and isn't starting from a strong position to handle short-term shocks due to previous waves of inflation, jobs disruption, and record debt levels. Republicans are not popular, Israel is not popular, and launching an aggressive war in the middle east is not popular. Even the American media sounds noticeably more critical about this war which typically signals a divided elite establishment.

I won't be surprised if that high gas prices force America to back off before Iran's economic woes force a regime change.

Meanwhile, Democratic senators claim that US military leadership are briefing that their war goals do not to extend regime change or to incapaciting Iran's nuclear programme.

[Cause]

I wasn’t thinking during the war, I am instead wondering how poor Irans position will be even after the war ends.

If the economy was poor before, with very high inflation what will it be like when the IRGC spends all their money on new rocket stockpiles, launchers, nukes etc.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 05:44 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM, said:

Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---

I think this was a direct comment on the school where all those girls were killed...that the US has owned up to...so yeah, I mean yeah...morally how do you not see that and go "Yeah, retaliate on the country that bombed a goddamn school and killed kids" at least in terms of war, tit for tat?

Here it is in context (see the link for a full English translation of the statement):

Quote

I assure everyone that we will not forgo taking vengeance for the blood of your martyrs. The vengeance we intend is not solely related to the martyrdom of the great Leader of the Revolution; rather, every member of the nation martyred by the enemy is a separate subject for the vengeance file. Of course, a limited amount of this vengeance has materialized so far, but until its full extent is achieved, this file will remain on top of other matters, and we will have particular sensitivity regarding the blood of our children. Therefore, the crime deliberately committed by the enemy at the Shajareh Tayyebah school in Minab and similar incidents holds a special significance in this regard.

Iran Not to Forgo Vengeance for Blood of Martyrs: Leader - Politics news - Tasnim News Agency

[Maark Abbott]

The USA could have also not started a pointless and illegal war. That would have also prevented those kids from being killed.

[Werthead]

Apparently the USA has given Israel one week to come up with a firm plan for regime change before they start talking about winding the operation down, which has left Israel scrambling to come up with an idea. They're now using drones to hit individual roadblocks and police positions in Tehran to try to free up the population for a revolution, but there is severe doubt that's even viable, or if the regime loses Tehran does that even matter very much if they control the rest of the country.

Also speculation of a joint US-Israel spec ops strike on the Isfahan nuclear site. Iran is apparently worried about such operations, its vast size and the Zagros Mountains being a barrier to conventional invasion but also giving infiltration missions a lot of cover. The US has refused to hit the site with bombs, noting that collapsing the site would merely trap the nuclear material there and allow Iran to dig it out later on. However, a spec ops strike might have a very hard time combing the site to find the material, especially as Iran has filled in several of the entrances.

Israel has also sounded the alarm about Egyptian moving military forces into the demilitarised part of the Sinai. No idea what that's about, if Israel is teeing up another conflict already.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 12 March 2026 - 10:42 PM, said:

Israel has also sounded the alarm about Egyptian moving military forces into the demilitarised part of the Sinai. No idea what that's about, if Israel is teeing up another conflict already.

That build up started a while ago and Israel raised concerns a while ago. Egypt supposedly wants to be ready to repel an influx of Palestinians if they break out of Gaza.

Israel is about 120 km at the widest point and about 420 at it longest. It’s roughly comparable to New Jersey in size. If an Egyptian tank crossed the border with a full fuel load it can reach any military or civilian target before the end of the day without refueling.

Given that Egypt and Israel have fought four wars before, both sides get nervous when troops amass near the border. It’s not 1967 or 1973 anymore and I suspect neither side wants to start anything but Israel would definitely be more comfortable with a bit more distance especially while fighting a war already. If Egypt continues the build up they know what they are doing.

[the broken]

Any sunken oil tanker has potential to be an ecological catastrophe. This could go pretty badly.

Israel and the US do seem to have excellent intelligence on where key figures are. Maybe they have a shot at finding someone they can deal with and eliminating the rivals?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

the broken, on 13 March 2026 - 01:01 AM, said:

Israel and the US do seem to have excellent intelligence on where key figures are. Maybe they have a shot at finding someone they can deal with and eliminating the rivals?

Mojtaba Khamenei is probably deep underground, in a top secret location not easily susceptible to "bunker buster" bombs. Even if they can locate him, the best they can probably do with (conventional) airstrikes is try to collapse all the entrances. (Though if they have agents inside the underground location I'd suppose they could try to have them assassinate him... but that seems unlikely.)

Secretary of War and wanna-be catalyst of the apocalypse Hegseth said today that Mojtaba is wounded and most likely disfigured. Try to imagine what it would be like if the Trump was not only bombing your nation but had murdered your parents, your wife, your child, wounded you so you're in constant pain, and horribly disfigured you... and you were extremely religious, believed in martyrdom... and believed in revenge.

Pete Hegseth says Iran supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei 'wounded and likely disfigured'

Quote

The only way militarily to guarantee the [Strait of Hormuz] is open [...] would be to take and hold the Iranian territory bordering the strait[...]

"It would require large numbers of ground forces to seize the coast," General Hinote said.

A Weakened Iran Hits Back by Strangling the Vital Strait of Hormuz - The New York Times

Meanwhile, so long as the oil supply shock continues, Russia remains the major "economic winner" of the war:

Quote

The Russians are helping Iran in its war against the United States, first by providing "targeting information," according to the Post, and second by providing "drone tactics," according to CNN.

[...] So the Russians are not only helping the Iranians kill American military personnel [...] They are also helping Iran choke off the global supply of oil at the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz.

[...] The Russians are not only helping Iran kill Americans, but they are also helping reduce the supply of oil, which raises the price of oil, which pressures Trump to ease oil sanctions, which enriches the Russians, which rewards them for helping Iran kill Americans.

[...] What does it look like to American military personnel for the commander-in-chief to act like this? Russia is helping Iran kill Americans, yet he beams with pride when recalling how "very impressed" Putin was by Trump's war with Iran, "because no one has seen anything like it."

Trump says it doesn't matter if Putin is helping Iran kill Americans

Since Trump has no compunctions about lying and thinks his base will believe whatever lies he tells them, he might try to "guarantee" that the US and Israel won't attack again, and maybe even pay reparations to Iran, while lying to the American public to try to make it seem like a victory. But why would Khamenei believe him? And would Netanyahu go along with it, even if it's just for until after the midterms?

If that doesn't work, or Trump isn't willing to try it, then it seems likely the US will eventually end up sending in ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz. One big question is how long Trump will wait to do that; higher prices would increase political support for ground troops, especially if Iran comes to be seen as the aggressor in refusing to end hostilities. Might even end up with an international coalition of ground troops if prices go high enough. Trump may feel like there's plenty of time go to before the midterms. And he also recently said:

Quote

The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money [...] Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Truth Details | Truth Social

... and by "we" naturally he means himself, his fossil fuel company donors, and his BFF Putin...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 March 2026 - 04:13 PM

[the broken]

Hamas urges Iran to stop attacks on Gulf states. That was not a headline on my bingo card.

[Werthead]

The US has spent about $12 billion on the conflict so far, not far off the $1 billion a day some were postulating.

Iran today launched 19 ballistic missiles, the largest number for five days, and 122 drones, the largest number for a week. They hit a joint US-Italian base in Kuwait, injuring personnel. Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia has come under repeated attack, and multiple missiles penetrated Israeli defences, with one residential area on the outskirts of Tel Aviv taking what appears to be a cluster hit. The town of Holon also took a hit. The UAE has been targeted repeatedly.

Some reports suggesting that Hezbollah forces may have tried to cross the Israeli border to attack the town of Metula. I would treat with scepticism for now, but Israeli sources are reporting a chaotic situation in the north, Israel was not anticipating ground operations in Lebanon and is struggling to put together the necessary logistics.

Fujairah oil terminal has restarted operations, allowing the UAE to export oil into the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Hormuz Strait.

[Tiste Simeon]

There's a lot of rumours that Bibi is dead floating around. Couple of possible AI videos apparently proving he's alive but lots of people saying they're fake. Not getting my hopes up until some more evidence comes out.

[Maark Abbott]

Why is the orange nonce demanding the UK's help with Hormuz? I thought the war was won, won bigly.

[Garak]

Iran's military is 100% destroyed but European troops better hurry or NATO will regret it. I wonder if his base is doing alright with the double think. Must be tiring by now.

[Tiste Simeon]

Maark Abbott, on 16 March 2026 - 10:05 AM, said:

Why is the orange nonce demanding the UK's help with Hormuz? I thought the war was won, won bigly.

You spend a year belittling and tariffing and threatening your closest allies and then act outraged when they're unwilling to join in your idiotic "let's distract everyone from the fact that I'm a paedophile" war? I'm shocked.

[Mentalist]

Tiste Simeon, on 15 March 2026 - 10:40 PM, said:

There's a lot of rumours that Bibi is dead floating around. Couple of possible AI videos apparently proving he's alive but lots of people saying they're fake. Not getting my hopes up until some more evidence comes out.

Just like with all the wishcasting about dead/deposed putler, don't trust things until state media confirms it.

[Tiste Simeon]

Mentalist, on 16 March 2026 - 01:29 PM, said:

Tiste Simeon, on 15 March 2026 - 10:40 PM, said:

There's a lot of rumours that Bibi is dead floating around. Couple of possible AI videos apparently proving he's alive but lots of people saying they're fake. Not getting my hopes up until some more evidence comes out.

Just like with all the wishcasting about dead/deposed putler, don't trust things until state media confirms it.

Oh for sure. There's a fair amount of circumstantial evidence but nothing solid.

[the broken]

Wouldn't that be, y'know, immediately announced? Why would that be kept secret?

[QuickTidal]

the broken, on 16 March 2026 - 02:52 PM, said:

Wouldn't that be, y'know, immediately announced? Why would that be kept secret?

Sorry, you're asking why the most secretive country on the planet would keep it secret that their warmongering/criminal leader had been killed?

Is that a real question?

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

QuickTidal, on 16 March 2026 - 04:13 PM, said:

the broken, on 16 March 2026 - 02:52 PM, said:

Wouldn't that be, y'know, immediately announced? Why would that be kept secret?

Sorry, you're asking why the most secretive country on the planet would keep it secret that their warmongering/criminal leader had been killed?

Is that a real question?

I think Staflinosta is the most secretive country on the planet...

[the broken]

What advantage is there in doing that, though?

Apparently this is from a fake deleted tweet, there's nothing solid behind it ands no reputable organisation has picked it up.