Malazan Empire: Israel and Iran - Malazan Empire

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Israel and Iran Looking close to hot!

#1 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 02:10 AM

Hezbollah has been actively engaging the iron dome today ..2nd large round.

Iran is preparing 100s of missiles

Russia dropped large tactical assets off in Iran today..

Israel per the media warned that a Iran attack will launch a EMP attack on Iran.this would be ..horrific if true.

Multiple US assets moving that way and advanced ships enroute...

Us intelligence says 24 hours away...

(A mod can close if this doesn't result in anything in 7 days, but chatter is very very high in the world..it looks very close to a bad breaking point)

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 13 April 2024 - 02:12 AM

-If it's ka it'll come like a wind, and your plans will stand before it no more than a barn before a cyclone
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#2 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:01 AM

Move to discussion forum?


Mod edit: "Done." -d'rek

This post has been edited by D'rek: 14 April 2024 - 06:21 PM

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#3 User is offline   HoosierDaddy 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:49 AM

 Nicodimas, on 13 April 2024 - 02:10 AM, said:

chatter is very very high in the world..it looks very close to a bad breaking point)


And you probably couldnít be happier, right?
Trouble arrives when the opponents to such a system institute its extreme opposite, where individualism becomes godlike and sacrosanct, and no greater service to any other ideal (including community) is possible. In such a system rapacious greed thrives behind the guise of freedom, and the worst aspects of human nature come to the fore....
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#4 User is offline   Gorefest 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 08:40 PM

Laughing in glee in his homemade bunker, praying for the Rapture.
Yesterday, upon the stair, I saw a man who wasn't there. He wasn't there again today. Oh, how I wish he'd go away.
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#5 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 08:59 PM

 Gorefest, on 13 April 2024 - 08:40 PM, said:

Laughing in glee in his homemade bunker, praying for the Rapture.


What?

No. I have a pets , a amazing family and a supportive community around me. I love my people and want them to be happy, free and safe. Community and friends are some of the most important things about people in my life.

(Remember this all occurs because of the governments people seem to worship here, I have always towed that particular line, but in digress. Most freely support the tyrants willingly..Malazan reference )
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#6 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:02 PM

Iran has now sent suicide drones. For years I commented on threads that the positioning of getting Russia involved in Ukraine... Was so the West could freely support a move to get Iran to move on Israel. Iran was very close to the bomb so this allows the West to freely move more of its interests. Now will this escalte from here ..? Time will tell.
-If it's ka it'll come like a wind, and your plans will stand before it no more than a barn before a cyclone
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#7 User is offline   Gorefest 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:07 PM

 Nicodimas, on 13 April 2024 - 08:59 PM, said:

 Gorefest, on 13 April 2024 - 08:40 PM, said:

Laughing in glee in his homemade bunker, praying for the Rapture.


What?

No. I have a pets , a amazing family and a supportive community around me. I love my people and want them to be happy, free and safe. Community and friends are some of the most important things about people in my life.

(Remember this all occurs because of the governments people seem to worship here, I have always towed that particular line, but in digress. Most freely support the tyrants willingly..Malazan reference )


Oh, my sincere apologies, I must have gotten confused by all the gun-worshipping, conspiracy-laden alt-right bollocks you've plastered around previously.
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#8 User is offline   Gorefest 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:08 PM

 Nicodimas, on 13 April 2024 - 09:02 PM, said:

Iran has now sent suicide drones. For years I commented on threads that the positioning of getting Russia involved in Ukraine... Was so the West could freely support a move to get Iran to move on Israel. Iran was very close to the bomb so this allows the West to freely move more of its interests. Now will this escalte from here ..? Time will tell.



Oh.


Scrap previously.
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#9 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:11 PM

I think all us sane people in the world are crossing our fingers that somehow all this shit at the moment calms down.

Unfortunately there's too many people that are either batshit crazy, criminal, incompetent or slowly sinking into senility, in important positions at the moment. This will NOT be helped by a Republican electoral victory.
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#10 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 09:38 PM

 Tsundoku, on 13 April 2024 - 09:11 PM, said:

I think all us sane people in the world are crossing our fingers that somehow all this shit at the moment calms down.

Unfortunately there's too many people that are either batshit crazy, criminal, incompetent or slowly sinking into senility, in important positions at the moment. This will NOT be helped by a Republican electoral victory.


I have feared for a very long time this is the path we are going. I feel my opinion is well stated enough you get the idea at this point ..

I always feel most of what going on is planned and apart of the Grand Chessboard and it's playing off choices already decided on. We get to see how this plays out. Seeing Israel's response to what occured in Gaza..doesn't fill me with a ton of hope.
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#11 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 10:05 PM

Lots of rumors and heresay. But it does sound like most of the drones were shot down..it was 230 shot down... To a very big escalation if true ...however will wait as the amount of rumors is sky high at the moment....

The amount of information is daunting at the moment.
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#12 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 13 April 2024 - 10:47 PM

(not sure how this thread got moved)

Multi stage ballistics missile sent and Iran stated

Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iranís military action was in response to the Zionist regimeís aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus.

The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iranís response will be considerably more severe.

It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY.'
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#13 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 15 April 2024 - 02:41 PM

Both sides doing a lot of posturing for the sake of scoring domestic political points.

Neither is interested in an actual land war escalation (nor do they have a common border)

Ironically, this might actually make the Congress pass the joint UA/Israel/Taiwan Security package bill, though.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#14 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 15 April 2024 - 08:24 PM

There are multiple arguments raging in both Jerusalem and Tehran about this (probably Washington as well).

In one scenario this was Iran's maximal effort, representing Iran going all-out to strike at Israel with one powerful strike. If so, Israel and its allies rather easily defeated it. If this is all Iran can get off in one go, Israeli and US hardliners will be arguing for massive strikes on Iran targeting military command centres, AA defences, missile stockpiles and production, Shahed drone production facilities (which would help Ukraine as well, although Russia does have some native construction facilities now) and, most notably, Iran's nuclear research facilities. The idea is that in one or two days of strikes they could obliterate a considerable amount of Iran's military potential, end its nuclear programme for the foreseeable future and possibly even weaken the regime so internal protests could successfully turn into a major popular uprising (this latter is probably over-optimistic, and of course could also swing the population behind the government).

However, I get the impression this is widely regarded as optimistic in more cool-headed analyses. They have been citing that Iran could have launched twice as many drones and maybe half again as many ballistic missiles in one go, and then kept up a sustained bombardment over many hours. Even if Israel and its allies had intercepted and destroyed all the incoming weapons, at least a few would have gotten through and Israel would have expended considerable ammunition reserves to do so. In addition, Iran did not order its proxy in Lebanon to join the attack, as Hezbollah have significant medium-to-short range missiles and could have launched attacks across the order that would have been numerous enough to challenge Israel's short-range defences.

The big surprise for Iran seems to have been both the effectiveness of Israel's anti-ballistic missile forces and also how crappily theirs performed: current US analysis indicates a ~40% failure rate with ballistic missiles exploding in mid-air, failing to launch, blowing up on the launch pad or veering off course somewhere over Iraq, Syria or Jordan. Several of the missiles that penetrated Israel's defences were apparently allowed to do so after dynamic modelling confirmed they would not hit a populated area (something Ukraine has also successful done against Russia, avoiding wasting AA fire on missiles that aren't actually going anywhere important). Anti-ballistic missiles fired from the USS Ardleigh Burke and an Israeli frigate in Eilat Bay intercepted and destroyed Iranian and Houthi missiles well outside of the danger zone, and one Arrow-3 missile went extra-atmospheric to destroy an incoming missile whilst it was technically in space.

The Israeli hardliners are absolutely arguing for a massive retaliatory strike that hits Iran incredibly hard. Their allies are talking them down. Netanyahu in particular has been put in the seat of having to thank Jordan, the US, the UK and France for their support in this endeavour (an Arab country like Jordan ordering jets into the sky to shoot missiles down fired against Israel is no small thing). There are also unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia provided intelligence directly or allowed US and UK military personnel based in Saudi (ostensibly for anti-Houthi operations) to use their facilities to track and engage incoming fire. Left unspoken is the idea that if Israel continues to escalate both in Gaza and the wider region, then maybe its allies will not be so quick to help it next time (as tough a sell as that would be, especially in the US, to put Israeli civilians in danger).

Israel is also riding something of a minor PR bump with Arab sentiments about the attack mixed, in particular the shots of missiles exploding directly above the Al-Aqsa mosque and the Dome of the Rock, apparently in a vague effort to hit the nearby Knesset building (one reason why Hamas and Hezbollah do not fire missiles at Jerusalem, it's simply far too hard to avoid hitting Islamic holy sites or Palestinian civilians). That goes away if Israel starts pummelling Iran.

I think Biden's advice here is germane: Israel killed 13 senior Iranian commanders, including two senior Republican Guard generals, in their attack. In Iran's response, the sole injury was to a Muslim girl, and there were no fatalities. As Biden said, "Take the win."
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#15 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 15 April 2024 - 08:38 PM

@ Wert.

This was a probe they commited 9ish of their good/better missiles and they landed. It was reported they landed right smack dab in the middle of airbases. This sent a message.

However I bet their was satellites watching the intercepts of everything else gauging modern western systems. This was about getting data back. Some countries gained quite a bit of real world data.

Right now the usual rhetoric is being tossed. Israel is saying they will strike back hard. Iran has said they will strike back anytime against Israel directly per one of its generals.. I did see quite a bit of other information and data being tossed, but withholding as it's going to be quite a bit of rumors.

On the flip side I think we all know how Israel responds to this type of thing. Apparently it's Being reported they are not taking anymore calls from the West about leniency. Hard.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 15 April 2024 - 08:41 PM

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#16 User is offline   Nicodimas 

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Posted 15 April 2024 - 08:56 PM

The question to me is if they do anything which airspace.

Jordan just stated they did down Iranian drones going over it's airspace and with this information maybe limits the mobility of Israel. So good news I think on this front.


https://www.timesofi...-tehran-attack/

Edit the response Iran will take is largely out there if you care to review. AGAIN take alot of this with its source as their is lots of hearsay
.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 15 April 2024 - 09:08 PM

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#17 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 15 April 2024 - 09:06 PM

If Biden really wanted to prevent Israeli retaliation, could he have the US military destroy drones or missiles launched from Israel towards Iran?

And then sell Israel more to replace them, of course... not a bad racket there. Does cause a bit of pollution though.

Or why not sell them drones and weapons which the US can remotely control or deactivate?... (Though of course destroying them would be more profitable... for the US, not the world economy.)

But I imagine they assume the US public is too willfully ignorant and/or irrational to understand that this would be a good thing.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 15 April 2024 - 09:08 PM

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Posted 15 April 2024 - 11:20 PM

I feel like the whole deal was just a show. Iím pretty sure Iran knew they wouldnít hit anything but just wanted to show that they are willing to commit resources against Israel. I think if it had been a real attack they would have hurt people and that would mean a war that everyone is hoping to avoid.
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#19 User is offline   Primateus 

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Posted 16 April 2024 - 12:12 PM

View PostLady Bliss, on 15 April 2024 - 11:20 PM, said:

I feel like the whole deal was just a show. I'm pretty sure Iran knew they wouldn't hit anything but just wanted to show that they are willing to commit resources against Israel. I think if it had been a real attack they would have hurt people and that would mean a war that everyone is hoping to avoid.


Remember Comical Ali, Saddam's information minister during the invasion of Iraq?

He said the most ridiculous shit that we all laughed at. Truth was, though, he wasn't talking to us, he was talking to Saddam's party loyalists and people.

I'm thinking the same is true here. I don't think the Iranian leadership is so dumb they actually think anyone in Israel, or the "West" in general is really intimidated or anything by this.

No, it's probably more a signal to their own people. An internal show of strength.
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#20 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 16 April 2024 - 12:28 PM

View PostPrimateus, on 16 April 2024 - 12:12 PM, said:

View PostLady Bliss, on 15 April 2024 - 11:20 PM, said:

I feel like the whole deal was just a show. I'm pretty sure Iran knew they wouldn't hit anything but just wanted to show that they are willing to commit resources against Israel. I think if it had been a real attack they would have hurt people and that would mean a war that everyone is hoping to avoid.


Remember Comical Ali, Saddam's information minister during the invasion of Iraq?

He said the most ridiculous shit that we all laughed at. Truth was, though, he wasn't talking to us, he was talking to Saddam's party loyalists and people.

I'm thinking the same is true here. I don't think the Iranian leadership is so dumb they actually think anyone in Israel, or the "West" in general is really intimidated or anything by this.

No, it's probably more a signal to their own people. An internal show of strength.


Like most of China's actions aren't for our consumption, but their own people.
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