[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 06 March 2026 - 09:15 PM, said:

There's really no "win" scenario, unless Iran agrees to back off (or an actual revolution happens, which doesn't feel likely ATM). And inciting invasions to foment ethnic strife won't solve this, b/c it doesn't take much to send drones to the Gulf states, or into tankers in the Strait- you don't need a fully functioning bureaucracy for this, you just need autonomous military cells that can keep functioning even if the whole country plunges into a free-for-all civil war.

Good point that if the US actually collapses the regime without replacing it and then leaves---without completely and lastingly destroying remaining Revolutionary Guard cells' capacity for drone attacks---vengeful Revolutionary Guard groups yearning for martyrdom are likely to continue... if they're not too busy fighting their own civil wars.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 07 March 2026 - 02:50 AM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 07 March 2026 - 02:49 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 06 March 2026 - 09:15 PM, said:

There's really no "win" scenario, unless Iran agrees to back off (or an actual revolution happens, which doesn't feel likely ATM). And inciting invasions to foment ethnic strife won't solve this, b/c it doesn't take much to send drones to the Gulf states, or into tankers in the Strait- you don't need a fully functioning bureaucracy for this, you just need autonomous military cells that can keep functioning even if the whole country plunges into a free-for-all civil war.

Good point that if the US actually collapses the regime without replacing it and then leaves---without completely and lastingly destroying remaining Revolutionary Guard cells' capacity for drone attacks---vengeful Revolutionary Guard groups yearning for martyrdom are likely to continue... if they're not too busy fighting their own civil wars.

Literally all you need to halt the flow of ships through the Straight is for a bunch of insurance brokers in London to maintain an impression that it's not safe to traverse, b/c vengeful rogue operatives will sink anything they can see. And that's not hard, when all you need for a drone are a cheap guidance kit, a motor, some explosives and some plywood.

[Werthead]

Looks like Iran scored an impressive hit, destroying or at least crippling a THAAD system in Jordan. The US is rushing a replacement as soon as possible.

The USS George HW Bush carrier group has been ordered to the Mediterranean.

Protests in Havana after 60 hours without electricity. I'm hoping this doesn't give anyone ideas.

Iran his hit storage sites around Basra in Iraq and Dubai's main airport. The number of missile and drone strikes is seriously deteriorating though.

[QuickTidal]

The EB6 Mercury has been moved to the region.

Hooboy, buckle the fuck up folks…I think dementia Donny wants to go out in fire and brimstone.

[Werthead]

Some indications that Iran retains around 50% of its ballistic missile program and the majority of its drone capability. Strikes overnight continued, with Tel Aviv taking several impacts. More than 1,000 Israelis have been injured. The US has now burned through 800 Patriot interceptors and the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are reporting serious shortages. Fortunately the tempo of Iranian strikes has reduced significantly otherwise they'd be running dry about now.

Despite this, Iran was able to hit targets across Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq in a series of overnight strikes, with some 20 targets reportedly hit. Iraqi militia groups aligned to Tehran attacked US military positions, though not with much success. Hezbollah also targeted Israeli military positions.

Insurance companies are continuing to refuse to insure ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran can keep the straits shut for ~20 days, the effect on the global economy will become extremely serious and probably force Trump to an offramp.

Iranian oil fields and desalination plants being hit by Israel and the US could encourage Iran to target those facilities in the Gulf and try to hit those in Israel. Cutting off fresh water supplies to the region would be absolutely catastrophic.

Iran's heavy bombing of the Kurdish border region has apparently succeeded: the Kurds have decided not to take part in offensive action against the Iranians. They lack heavy equipment and some Kurdish factions are very distrustful of the United States after previous, numerous betrayals.

The Gerald R. Ford has departed the Mediterranean, passing through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. Reportedly it has been tasked with reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Charles de Gaulle has assumed its former defensive role in the eastern Mediterranean (the French backfilling for the Americans there, but apparently it's okay to ignore your allies). The British destroyer meant to head to Cyprus still hasn't departed, but it may be joined by one of the carriers, as both are in home port for refitting, and may be able to deploy in the next week or two.

The US and Israel are reportedly discussing an operation to seize control of Kharg Island, which hosts a terminal responsible for 90% of Iran's crude oil exports.

Reports that 20+ Iranian aircraft have been destroyed, but Iran has provided videos showing some of the aircraft were in fact painted decoys on the tarmac. Adding to the confusing, some OSINT sources saying the videos might be from last year's conflict instead of the current one.

An explosion at the US embassy in Oslo, Norway.

Witkoff has asked Moscow not to share intelligence with Iran. Okay.

[Primateus]

So, what's all this about Lindsey Graham going to Israel to school them on how to best manipulate the Orange One into attacking Iran?

[the broken]

Great perun video today about missile expenditure.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

This morning plumes of thick black smoke covered the sun, creating what has been described as a nuclear winter effect, as oil literally rained from the sky.

Authorities in Tehran warned people against going outside, because not only is acid rain now falling, the air is saturated with toxic gas.

Nearly 10 million people have effectively been subjected to a poison gas attack by the US and Israel. An attack supported by the majority of EU leaders, as well as the UK [...]

[...] Trump said today that he wants Iran to surrender but doesn't know "if there will be anyone alive to surrender" by the time the US is finished.

[...] The gleefully violent pronouncements coming from the mouths of American politicians are, even for those of us well-versed in the barbarity of imperialism, and well-versed in Israeli sadism, astonishing.

https://www.donotpan...-acid-rain-over

Arrows Fire will blot out the sun...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

U.S. Tomahawk Hit Naval Base Beside Iranian School, Video Shows

The evidence contradicts President Trump's claim that Iran was responsible for a strike at the school that killed 175 people, most of them children.

[...] The U.S. military is the only force involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles.

A body of evidence assembled by The [New York] Times — including satellite imagery, social media posts and other verified videos — indicates that the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on the naval base.

[...] A Times analysis of the video shows the missile striking a building described as a medical clinic in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base. Plumes of smoke and debris shoot out of the building after it is hit as the distant screams of onlookers are heard.

As the camera pans to the right, large plumes of dust and smoke are already billowing from the area around the elementary school, suggesting that it had been struck shortly before the strike on the naval base. This is supported by a timeline of the strikes assembled by The Times that shows the school was hit around the time as the base.

https://www.nytimes....ool-strike.html

[QuickTidal]

Primateus, on 08 March 2026 - 06:14 PM, said:

So, what's all this about Lindsey Graham going to Israel to school them on how to best manipulate the Orange One into attacking Iran?

I need to know why this man is like this...I need to know if it's just because he's gay and can't stomach the idea of being out in the Republican Party and risking his position as his voters are majority bigots? Or is he such a war hawk to try to look big and tough and hyper masculine to the world, while in private we all know for a fact that he's a bottom (this is reported from the male escorts he's been with over the years)? Like I want to know....is he in the files? What does Israel have on him?

Like I just don't get it.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

global oil markets are experiencing a supply shock that dwarfs every previous crisis in the petroleum era [...]

Every oil crisis in modern history has followed a recognizable pattern: supply disruption triggers price spike, refiners adjust by processing alternative crude sources, prices moderate as markets rebalance.

[...] The refining capacity to process alternative crude sources has been lost. [...] diesel prices are spiking past $5.96 per gallon, not because of temporary market panic, but because the infrastructure to process alternative crude supplies into refined products literally doesn't exist at the scale needed to offset a 20 million barrel per day supply shock.

Iran conflict exposes America's Achilles' heel - Yahoo Finance

I'm starting to wonder whether Trump is actually trying to crash global markets again.

Maybe he's upset that the Supreme Court took away his ability to use immediate arbitrary tariffs as leverage to bully other countries, and he wants a new way to blackmail the world.

Or maybe he remembers how much money was made via insider trading when he purposefully crashed the stock market last April, and he wants to stock up before trying for his auto-coup.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: Yesterday, 02:50 PM

[QuickTidal]

You know what really bothers me about all this? Trump takes out the Ayatollah, dusts his hands and says "Look, we took out their head!" as if that's accurate or realistic.

It's not. The IRGC is like the CIA, the FBI, and the mafia and the military were one organization. They are the military apparatus, they are the intelligence organization, they are the foundation of the police state, they also are this massive economic monopoly that essentially controls the oil and gas sector in Iran, they control concrete, rubber...you can't build anything in Iran without the IRGC involved. This group RUNS Iran...and they are more than happy to trot out one old man after another and call that person the supreme leader...and let that person be the ideological rhetorical figure head...and have them do all the things that maintain that this is some sort of holy islamic country. Netanyahu knows this, but Trump does not. And therefore Trump is Bibi's useful idiot. He 100% told Trump "If we cut off the head, everything else will collapse"...he KNEW he was signing the USA into a months long war that would engulf the region...and I could be wrong but every time Trump goes in front of people now I feel like he MAY be finally getting to understand that fact...This is reflected in what was supposedly a "WTF" message sent to Netanyahu from the WH about Israeli destroying something like 7million oil barrels the night before last?...like Trump is figuring out this shit in real time...like he's THAT stupid that he went to war without understanding what would happen, led there by a guy who knew EXACTLY what would happen.

[Werthead]

Iran has launched over 120 drones in one day, an sharp uptick from the previously declining number.

Israel has suggested that Iran only has 120 missile launchers available and this number should come down quickly. However, sceptics believe the number is much higher, especially since Iran can launch the longer-ranged missiles from north-east Iran, where the US and Israel have failed to make a single attack as yet.

Some analysts suggesting that since the United States took twenty years to replace the Taliban with the Taliban, and only nine days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei, this demonstrates a market improvement in American strategic efficiency.

Some signalling from within the White House that Trump may be listening more to the voices calling for an end to the conflict, particularly MAGA voices upset that he broke his promise not to get embroiled in overseas conflict as well as Gulf and Asian allies. In addition, test-leaks about American troops needing to deploy on the ground have gone down very badly. The USA blaming Israel for taking out the "more moderate leaders" who could have replaced Khamenei and for targeting the oilfields might be a way of offloading the blame onto Netanyahu. However, Netanyahu may be aware of Trumps' changeable nature and might be trying to escalate to pull the United States further into the conflict. Suggestions that Israel could use a tactical nuke in Iran seem, so far, to be unfounded and hopefully will remain that way.

Iranian television believes Trump will be forced to capitulate once oil passes $150 a barrel, which at current rates will be quite soon. I suspect Trump would not capitulate at that point but the reality of the situation might start to bite.

The US has lost its 11th Reaper MQ-9 Reaper drone over Iran.

The US has ordered all diplomats to prepare to leave Saudi Arabia. It has also closed its consulate in Adana, Turkey, and advised citizens to avoid southeastern Turkey for the foreseeable future.

11 countries have asked for Ukrainian air defence advice and assistance, including the United States. Some reports that Ukrainian interceptor drone teams have arrived in Jordan and set up defences for American forces based in the country, and are teaching the Americans how to defend themselves. It's unclear if the Americans have shown gratitude.

A further Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace and was shot down.

An eighth American servicemen has died from his wounds.

Bahrain's Bapco refinery, processing 267,000 barrels a day, has been hit by Iranian missiles. 

[Tiste Simeon]

Don't Ukraine need all their dudes for, you know, Ukraine?

[Grief]

Werthead, on 09 March 2026 - 08:49 PM, said:

The USA blaming Israel for taking out the "more moderate leaders" who could have replaced Khamenei and for targeting the oilfields might be a way of offloading the blame onto Netanyahu.

The "blame it on Israel" deflection is a truly hopeless, short-termist, maneuvre.

The narrative that they have been dragged into war by Israel is already damaging enough for Republicans. The fact that they have staunchly supported (and armed) Israel, and will no doubt continue to do so, makes it very tough to start blaming the worst of the war on Israel. And of course there will never be a unified front on that within your party, which already can't get its story straight about the war.

The fact that playbook seems like an actual possibility just shows how bad the politics look for party right now.

You are in a bad place when, a week after starting a war, you are eyeing up the blame game with the same ally you are supporting in the war... while at the same time hoping to sell that going to war was necessary and totally not a blunder.

[Werthead]

Tiste Simeon, on 09 March 2026 - 08:54 PM, said:

Don't Ukraine need all their dudes for, you know, Ukraine?

Ukraine rotates its anti-drone teams off the line for R&R regularly, it's a pretty stressful job, since if you miss or get it wrong, an apartment building in Kyiv might be getting blown up or power might be cut off to half a city. But it's also not the most technical job, there's a lot of people trained to fire a machine gun out the back of a chopper or off the back of a pickup truck, or increasingly using those British-built anti-drone microdrones, which sometimes sit on the ground until a Shahed wanders into its field of view and then automatically blows it out of the sky with minimal oversight.

So there's a lot of Ukrainian anti-Shahed teams sitting around off the line who can pack up and go to the Gulf. This is also important because it earns them a ton of goodwill. IIRC, a couple of the Gulf States by themselves were talking about underwriting 20-30% of Ukraine's ultimate rebuilding costs, so staying on their goodside is a good thing.

Ukraine also desperately needs Patriot missile refills from America, so sending their teams to help protect American soldiers earns them goodwill from the USA (probably not Trump, who'll forget about this in five minutes, but still).

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 11:20 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

Thanks Wert, I guess R&R on a different battlefield is a choice but if they're taking a less active role then it makes sense.

 Werthead, on 09 March 2026 - 11:20 PM, said:

Ukraine also desperately needs Patriot missile refills from America, so sending their teams to help protect American soldiers earns them goodwill from the USA (probably not Trump, who'll forget about this in five minutes, but still).

This last bit is where my initial thought was coming from - Trump has shown time and again that he is unstable and unreliable. I guess I thought that sending people to a different war elsewhere to support someone who has actively tried to support your enemy on more than one occasion is just weird.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tiste Simeon, on 10 March 2026 - 07:04 AM, said:

Werthead, on 09 March 2026 - 11:20 PM, said:

Ukraine also desperately needs Patriot missile refills from America, so sending their teams to help protect American soldiers earns them goodwill from the USA (probably not Trump, who'll forget about this in five minutes, but still).

This last bit is where my initial thought was coming from - Trump has shown time and again that he is unstable and unreliable. I guess I thought that sending people to a different war elsewhere to support someone who has actively tried to support your enemy on more than one occasion is just weird.

And Trump is using Iran as an excuse to lift oil sanctions on Russia...

Quote

Following a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump said the US will waive oil-related sanctions on "some countries" to ease the shortage sparked by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Ukraine war briefing: Trump set to ease oil-related sanctions following Putin call | Russia | The Guardian

... perhaps permanently:

Quote

"We're also waiving certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices (for oil - ed.). We're going to take those sanctions off till this straightens out," [...] However, in the next phrase, he suggested that the restrictions might not be reinstated.

"Then, who knows, maybe we won't have to put them on," Trump said.

Trump admits possibility of permanent lifting of some oil sanctions against Russia | Ukrainian news

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: Today, 11:56 AM