[Grief]

Cause, on 12 March 2026 - 06:16 PM, said:

The Iranian economy I understand was in shambles before this. Inflation was 60%. They will rebuild but how long will it take and how will the economy cope. The oppression will have to ramp up to keep the country stable or the IRGC may collapse for econimic reasons. Also if they face collapse will they drag the whole of the gulf and the worlds oil with them in revenge. Im sure the USA has been planing contigencies for this war for decades, I doubt Heseth or Trump ever read them.

The economics in these scenarios tend to be unpredictable and can be very counter-intuitive.

For example, sanctions put on short-term pressure but when you look at economies that have been heavily sanctioned for a long time - like Iran - in some ways that's insulating.

War economies are famously capable of churning on by creating their own jobs and demand, at least while it's necessary for war, and domestic rebuilding projects are in some ways comparable to growth.

Not saying Iran's economy is in a great shape or something, not remotely, more that I don't think we should expect economics to end the war in any near-term timeframe. Or if anything I think it's more likely America that will blink first economically.

The American economy has far further to fall and isn't starting from a strong position to handle short-term shocks due to previous waves of inflation, jobs disruption, and record debt levels. Republicans are not popular, Israel is not popular, and launching an aggressive war in the middle east is not popular. Even the American media sounds noticeably more critical about this war which typically signals a divided elite establishment.

I won't be surprised if that high gas prices force America to back off before Iran's economic woes force a regime change.

Meanwhile, Democratic senators claim that US military leadership are briefing that their war goals do not to extend regime change or to incapaciting Iran's nuclear programme.

[Cause]

I wasn’t thinking during the war, I am instead wondering how poor Irans position will be even after the war ends.

If the economy was poor before, with very high inflation what will it be like when the IRGC spends all their money on new rocket stockpiles, launchers, nukes etc.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 05:44 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM, said:

Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---

I think this was a direct comment on the school where all those girls were killed...that the US has owned up to...so yeah, I mean yeah...morally how do you not see that and go "Yeah, retaliate on the country that bombed a goddamn school and killed kids" at least in terms of war, tit for tat?

Here it is in context (see the link for a full English translation of the statement):

Quote

I assure everyone that we will not forgo taking vengeance for the blood of your martyrs. The vengeance we intend is not solely related to the martyrdom of the great Leader of the Revolution; rather, every member of the nation martyred by the enemy is a separate subject for the vengeance file. Of course, a limited amount of this vengeance has materialized so far, but until its full extent is achieved, this file will remain on top of other matters, and we will have particular sensitivity regarding the blood of our children. Therefore, the crime deliberately committed by the enemy at the Shajareh Tayyebah school in Minab and similar incidents holds a special significance in this regard.

Iran Not to Forgo Vengeance for Blood of Martyrs: Leader - Politics news - Tasnim News Agency

[Maark Abbott]

The USA could have also not started a pointless and illegal war. That would have also prevented those kids from being killed.

[Werthead]

Apparently the USA has given Israel one week to come up with a firm plan for regime change before they start talking about winding the operation down, which has left Israel scrambling to come up with an idea. They're now using drones to hit individual roadblocks and police positions in Tehran to try to free up the population for a revolution, but there is severe doubt that's even viable, or if the regime loses Tehran does that even matter very much if they control the rest of the country.

Also speculation of a joint US-Israel spec ops strike on the Isfahan nuclear site. Iran is apparently worried about such operations, its vast size and the Zagros Mountains being a barrier to conventional invasion but also giving infiltration missions a lot of cover. The US has refused to hit the site with bombs, noting that collapsing the site would merely trap the nuclear material there and allow Iran to dig it out later on. However, a spec ops strike might have a very hard time combing the site to find the material, especially as Iran has filled in several of the entrances.

Israel has also sounded the alarm about Egyptian moving military forces into the demilitarised part of the Sinai. No idea what that's about, if Israel is teeing up another conflict already.