[Mezla PigDog]

Macros, on 05 January 2022 - 08:14 PM, said:

Man, you think that's bad, wifey works in the HOSPITAL. There's people with PCR test positive spouses/children being told to come to work until they themselves get a positive lateral flow. Northern Ireland has to be in the running for highest % postives in the world right now, I think (somehow) our household is the only one I know that doesn't have a case

We had the exact same scenario in our house. Partner and son were positive, I stayed negative. We didn't isolate from each other, my kid constantly drinks from my glass, eats from my plate and kisses me on the lips. As I'm vaccinated I could have gone out but I chose not to until the day before their isolation ended and we ran out of milk for my tea 😆 I was fine, my son was fine, my partner was ill for a couple of days.

Now I don't want to sound all "it's just the flu" but eventually it really will be just like any other cold. UK and NI government are making a gamble that the change over is around about now. They may turn out to be kind of right but there will be a body count associated with it.

And to contradict my earlier post, that's why they are pumping arms full of booster jabs.

I have mine booked for next Monday.

This post has been edited by Mezla PigDog: 05 January 2022 - 09:41 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Fretting over a possible future lineage that combines Omicron’s extreme transmissibility with the severity of, say, the previous Delta lineage, experts are beginning to embrace a new public health strategy that’s getting an early test run in Israel: a four-shot regimen of messenger-RNA vaccine.

“I think this will be the strategy going forward,” Edwin Michael, an epidemiologist at the Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research [...]

That would be the nightmare lineage. [...] There are enough vaccine holdouts, such as the roughly 50 million Americans who say they’ll never get jabbed, that the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen should have ample opportunities for mutation.

[...] When it comes to viral mutations, “extreme events can occur at a non-negligible rate, or probability, and can lead to large consequences,” Michael said.

[...] The solution isn’t to deprive people of the doses they [may] need to maintain their protection against future—and potentially more dangerous—lineages. The solution, for vaccine-producing countries, is to further boost production and double down on efforts to push vaccines out to the least privileged communities.

A sense of urgency is key. For all its rapid spread, Omicron has actually gone fairly easy on us. Sigma or Upsilon might not.'

https://www.thedaily...htmare?ref=home


Doesn't discuss whether vaccinating the rest of the world before giving boosters would significantly decrease the risk....


Really hoping the universal coronavirus vaccine comes through---don't want to have to settle for endemicity, especially with the risk of long Covid from a mild or asymptomatic case.

[amphibian]

Mezla PigDog, on 04 January 2022 - 07:39 PM, said:

I'm finding it decidedly unpalatable that Western nations are now talking about 4th jabs. In younger people it's a knee jerk reaction to data about waning circulating antibody levels. But you rarely maintain circulating antibodies against a pathogen for long. The T cell response becomes the key to longer term immunity. This is much harder to measure. Booster shots are a political carpet bombing solution to national waves of infection. Politicians and scientists don't know who does or doesn't have decent immunity of what type or why (other than age, immunocompromised and pregnant women because it's long proven those cohorts have weaker immune systems in general) so they are getting shots into arms to look like they are doing something and keeping their fingers crossed that it allows economies back to business as usual sooner. All the while we risk new crazy variants coming out of the vast unvaccinated populations of the world. We're all lapping it up because we like to look and feel like we are doing our bit and get to feel virtuous about "believing in science".

It's a massive experiment. Name vaccine for a single pathogen where people have had so many doses in so short a time.

I don't have enough data to say either way whether it is right or wrong for individuals and I don't think anyone else has the data either. I do wish people would stop talking about boosters with such certainty though. I think people are speaking in more concrete terms about it because they don't want to add more fuel to the anti-vax bonfire and scientific logic dictates that extra doses of a safe vaccine at least does no harm. But mainly politicians want to look like they are doing something and individuals are lapping it up because we're desperate for normality and want to do the right thing.

I definitely think boosters should be aimed at the elderly only (over 50s or over 60s) until we have more data on broader cost : benefit analysis of some nations having 3 or 4 doses per citizen and many others having none. As a scientist with some knowledge of immunity and a lot of knowledge about infectious disease I'm 100% convinced the doses should be going to the unvaccinated first. We're kicking the can down the road and increasing the risk of a variant that takes us back to square one .... well maybe not square one but if we're on pandemic square 100 today then at least square 25. I fully believe via all of my scientific knowledge and intuition that when the dust settles and the data is analysed retrospectively after the end of the pandemic they will determine that extra shots weren't significantly beneficial in a global context.

I have been moderately to extremely upset about the lack of "sharing" so to speak to get stockpiles of vaccine that aren't being used to places where they're needed. I understand the infrastructure required, the certifications, the delicacy of transport, yet it's super hard to talk to my relatives in Nepal about getting a booster when only a little more than a third of the country has gotten 2 shots (fully vaccinated) and some of my relatives haven't gotten one shot yet.

It's brutal being on this end and powerless to affect things. It's been extremely heartening to read about people like Peter Hotez releasing CORBEVAX production knowledge essentially free to India and already entering production in the 100s of millions of doses. https://www.scientif...accine-for-all/

[Macros]

If Omicron is a less dangerous variant (to early to tell) and/or having a vaccine lets you ride it out fairly inoffensively is letting it run wild the answer? (Not playing devils advocate here, I think we're at a stage where getting people to stop being idiots will require Marshal law)

And a question from a non scientific person, if Omicron is less dangerous (big if) letting it become the prevailing strain, does this mean (in theory) if it mutates more it will continue mutating in the better spreading less dangerous direction?

This thought sponsored by the new variant Frenchies have discovered with 46 mutations

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

A light hearted addition - I went for my booster yesterday.

If I ever worry about my life achievements, I'm going to remind myself that several someones okayed SPIKEVAX as a name for a vaccine booster.

Sounds like someone riding out to find out where Gondor was when the Westfold fell.

[Maark Abbott]

Macros, on 06 January 2022 - 07:52 AM, said:

I think we're at a stage where getting people to stop being idiots will require Marshal law)

He's here.

[Macros]

Ha, he was the first thing popped into my head when I typed that

[Macros]

Way to jynx it Matt.
Mum just got a positive on a lateral flow

[Mezla PigDog]

Macros, on 06 January 2022 - 07:52 AM, said:

If Omicron is a less dangerous variant (to early to tell) and/or having a vaccine lets you ride it out fairly inoffensively is letting it run wild the answer? (Not playing devils advocate here, I think we're at a stage where getting people to stop being idiots will require Marshal law)

Yes if everyone was vaccinated and they all rode it out fairly inoffensively. Or yes if you decided you were ok with the covid vulnerable taking their chances and had unlimited availability of good healthcare for people with other health needs during the time you let it run wild.

Quote

And a question from a non scientific person, if Omicron is less dangerous (big if) letting it become the prevailing strain, does this mean (in theory) if it mutates more it will continue mutating in the better spreading less dangerous direction?

Impossible to say. They think Omicron developed from a strain that was around before Delta and malingered in some poor sod with untreated HIV which gave it time to develop all of these mutations. So while there is so much virus around the world in populations with diverse health status (I.e. global health inequalities coming home to roost) then anything can happen.

Hope your mums ok!

[Macros]

A case of the sniffles so far.

Me and wife negative (separate houses but a lot of shared time and space etc)
Dad negative too, so we'll see how it goes.

NI at 1 in 10 people with COVID right now, mental

[QuickTidal]

Macros, on 06 January 2022 - 02:32 PM, said:

A case of the sniffles so far.

Me and wife negative (separate houses but a lot of shared time and space etc)
Dad negative too, so we'll see how it goes.

NI at 1 in 10 people with COVID right now, mental

Hope your mum stays with mild symptoms and gets better soon!

[champ]

Macros, on 06 January 2022 - 10:30 AM, said:

Way to jynx it Matt.
Mum just got a positive on a lateral flow

Hope she's okay.

[Maark Abbott]

"Hi I'm ball hitty man. I am not going to do my paperwork for entry into Upsidedownia correctly because I'm ball hitty man."

"Hi we're Upsidedownia. Your paperwork is duff, Bawder Perchrall runs often enough that you've not reasonable grounds to not know about doing paperwork correctly, bye Felicia."

"War crimes from Upsidedownia! Oppression! PLANDEMIC!"

Man tennis is wilder than I expected

[Tsundoku]

Maark Abbott, on 10 January 2022 - 08:51 AM, said:

"Hi I'm ball hitty man. I am not going to do my paperwork for entry into Upsidedownia correctly because I'm ball hitty man."

"Hi we're Upsidedownia. Your paperwork is duff, Bawder Perchrall runs often enough that you've not reasonable grounds to not know about doing paperwork correctly, bye Felicia."

"War crimes from Upsidedownia! Oppression! PLANDEMIC!"

Man tennis is wilder than I expected

It gets better. What an absolute circus.

Novak Djokovic’s visa cancellation quashed, tennis star to be released from detention
The decision to cancel Novak Djokovic’s visa has been quashed by the Federal Circuit Court, and he will be freed from immigration detention.

https://www.news.com...8230539e493e3d5

[Maark Abbott]

Tsundoku, on 10 January 2022 - 09:08 AM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 10 January 2022 - 08:51 AM, said:

"Hi I'm ball hitty man. I am not going to do my paperwork for entry into Upsidedownia correctly because I'm ball hitty man."

"Hi we're Upsidedownia. Your paperwork is duff, Bawder Perchrall runs often enough that you've not reasonable grounds to not know about doing paperwork correctly, bye Felicia."

"War crimes from Upsidedownia! Oppression! PLANDEMIC!"

Man tennis is wilder than I expected

It gets better. What an absolute circus.

Novak Djokovic's visa cancellation quashed, tennis star to be released from detention
The decision to cancel Novak Djokovic's visa has been quashed by the Federal Circuit Court, and he will be freed from immigration detention.

https://www.news.com...8230539e493e3d5

What's really stupid is the raging gammons who bang on day and night about enforcing borders and keeping da imognes out of countries they don't have clearance to enter are up in arms about *checks* a country enforcing its border policy

[James Hutton]

Maark Abbott, on 10 January 2022 - 08:51 AM, said:

"Hi I'm ball hitty man.

Novax Djocovid?

[Mezla PigDog]

Oh I really wanted him to be deported. Covid vaccine status be damned, his face annoys me and the furore would have been funny. Elite athletes with zero personality are a waste of space.

Had my 3rd shot of Moderna today. Fingers crossed for no side effects.

[QuickTidal]

So my anti-vaxx sister finally got COVID (it was only a matter of time really), and has had it a long time now. And while she hasn't ended up needing to be in the hospital, my niece believes she's starting to exhibit long covid symptoms as it's now been weeks since she was infected and she's still exhibiting symptomatic stuff. My mom says she can't get through a phone call without coughing through most of it.

And yet, my mom developed a blood clot in her neck (likely a side effect from her Chemo treatment for her cancer) and my sister is hacking through a phone call while she tells my mom that she got that blood clot from the vaccine...

And I could be wrong, but isn't VITT associated only with AZ and J&J and not the mRNA vaccines? My mom is straight Pfizer for all three shots.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 10 January 2022 - 05:09 PM

[amphibian]

QuickTidal, on 10 January 2022 - 05:02 PM, said:

So my anti-vaxx sister finally got COVID (it was only a matter of time really), and has had it a long time now. And while she hasn't ended up needing to be in the hospital, my niece believes she's starting to exhibit long covid symptoms as it's now been weeks since she was infected and she's still exhibiting symptomatic stuff. My mom says she can't get through a phone call without coughing through most of it.

And yet, my mom developed a blood clot in her neck (likely a side effect from her Chemo treatment for her cancer) and my sister is hacking through a phone call while she tells my mom that she got that blood clot from the vaccine...

And I could be wrong, but isn't VITT associated only with AZ and J&J and not the mRNA vaccines? My mom is straight Pfizer for all three shots.

Getting a blood clot (TT) is far more associated with having COVID or with chemo treatment than it is with any of the vaccines (Vaccine Induced TT or VITT as QuickTidal said). I found a decent summary of the data written up by scholars here: https://www.uptodate...ocytopenia-vitt

The short summary of the above is that it would likely take several hundred thousand or even over three million doses of vaccine to find someone with VITT.

I'm sorry your sister has long COVID, yet I am happy that the only contact she's having with your mother is phone calls. That's a dangerous person/nuclear family for your mother to be physically around right now. Here's hoping your mother's chemo regimen works brilliantly.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Extremely irresponsible article in the Guardian today---cites a simulation-based study as if it proved the risk of transmission at > 6 feet is negligible and Covid quickly loses most of its infectiousness once in the air, so we should only worry about face-to-face contact and improving ventilation would not help much... but fails to mention that the simulation did not include omicron until the very end of the article.

That should have at least been in the opening paragraph, and probably in the title. (Also, the study hasn't been peer reviewed....)

On top of that, the original article falsely claimed the study found 'Covid loses 90% of ability to infect within five minutes'---which they've now corrected to 20 minutes. WTF.

'Covid loses 90% of ability to infect within minutes in air – study


Coronavirus loses 90% of its ability to infect us within 20 minutes of becoming airborne – with most of the loss occurring within the first five minutes, the world's first simulations of how the virus survives in exhaled air suggest.

The findings re-emphasise the importance of short-range Covid transmission, with physical distancing and mask-wearing likely to be the most effective means of preventing infection. Ventilation, though still worthwhile, is likely to have a lesser impact.

"People have been focused on poorly ventilated spaces and thinking about airborne transmission over metres or across a room. I'm not saying that doesn't happen, but I think still the greatest risk of exposure is when you're close to someone," said Prof Jonathan Reid [seems completely irresponsible to say this in the midst of the omicron spike without mentioning they didn't include omicron in the simulations] [...]

"It means that if I'm meeting friends for lunch in a pub today, the primary [risk] is likely to be me transmitting it to my friends, or my friends transmitting it to me, rather than it being transmitted from someone on the other side of the room," [...]

[...] They hopes to start experiments with the Omicron variant in the coming weeks.'

https://www.theguard...es-in-air-study

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 January 2022 - 07:24 PM