Wonder when we'll reach \beth _{1}
https://en.wikipedia...number#Beth_one
'"It's important to emphasize that the next variant — and there will definitely be one — may not evolve from omicron and it will not necessarily have these characteristics," [...]
[...] Before omicron came along, SARS-CoV-2 was actually evolving to be more severe, says Bhattacharyya, of Harvard Medical School. "We're looking at a virus that's gotten progressively more severe over time," [...]
[...] alpha was about 40% more likely to kill a person than the original virus. And delta was about two times more likely to put you in the hospital than the alpha variant.
[...] Becoming "more mild" hasn't been the trend or evolutionary trajectory[...]
[...] omicron didn't evolve directly from delta. It evolved from an earlier version of the virus circulating in 2020. And so omicron could actually be more severe than its ancestral virus, and it could be progressing toward higher severity, Bhattacharyya says.
And thus, there's no guarantee that the next variant to emerge will be milder. It could be the most severe yet.
[...] spread occurs primarily at the beginning of a person's infection, even before they know they're sick. During this period, the virus infects mainly the person's upper respiratory tract. It hasn't reached deep in the lungs, where severe disease occurs.
[...]
So for a new variant to spread to more people and outcompete previous variants, it needs to become really good at infecting a person's nose and airway. But it doesn't matter how well the new variant infects cells in the deep lungs. As more people become immune to SARS-CoV-2, a new variant also has to be really good at evading antibodies and other immune responses.
So future variants will likely continue to improve their ability to infect and grow in the upper respiratory tract (and they will continue to be more immune evasive).
"Whether those changes also make the new variant more severe or less severe, that's kind of the luck of the draw"'
https://www.npr.org/...becoming-milder
So vaccines that only offer good protection against severe illness may have a very limited impact on the creation (and spread) of new variants. Hence:
'Experts urge development of new vaccines that protect against transmission of the virus in the first place'
https://www.theguard...ho-experts-warn
'"If we want to stop the epidemic[...] we will need nasal vaccines," Prof Tartour said. "As long as vaccines fail to prevent the transmission and therefore the spread of the virus, we will be under threat from new variants."
Pre-clinical studies of Theravectys' nasal-administered vaccine have suggested strong efficacy, with the viral load being drastically reduced along with pulmonary inflammation and tissue injury.
However, researchers are currently testing nasal vaccines to determine whether they would be effective against the Omicron variant.'
https://www.connexio...ctive-than-jabs
Nasal vaccines (assuming they are not administered by needle injection) will also hopefully appeal to the people who have avoided vaccination because of fear (or dislike) of needles....