Mezla PigDog, on 04 January 2022 - 07:39 PM, said:
I'm finding it decidedly unpalatable that Western nations are now talking about 4th jabs. In younger people it's a knee jerk reaction to data about waning circulating antibody levels. But you rarely maintain circulating antibodies against a pathogen for long. The T cell response becomes the key to longer term immunity. This is much harder to measure. Booster shots are a political carpet bombing solution to national waves of infection. Politicians and scientists don't know who does or doesn't have decent immunity of what type or why (other than age, immunocompromised and pregnant women because it's long proven those cohorts have weaker immune systems in general) so they are getting shots into arms to look like they are doing something and keeping their fingers crossed that it allows economies back to business as usual sooner. All the while we risk new crazy variants coming out of the vast unvaccinated populations of the world. We're all lapping it up because we like to look and feel like we are doing our bit and get to feel virtuous about "believing in science".
It's a massive experiment. Name vaccine for a single pathogen where people have had so many doses in so short a time.
I don't have enough data to say either way whether it is right or wrong for individuals and I don't think anyone else has the data either. I do wish people would stop talking about boosters with such certainty though. I think people are speaking in more concrete terms about it because they don't want to add more fuel to the anti-vax bonfire and scientific logic dictates that extra doses of a safe vaccine at least does no harm. But mainly politicians want to look like they are doing something and individuals are lapping it up because we're desperate for normality and want to do the right thing.
I definitely think boosters should be aimed at the elderly only (over 50s or over 60s) until we have more data on broader cost : benefit analysis of some nations having 3 or 4 doses per citizen and many others having none. As a scientist with some knowledge of immunity and a lot of knowledge about infectious disease I'm 100% convinced the doses should be going to the unvaccinated first. We're kicking the can down the road and increasing the risk of a variant that takes us back to square one .... well maybe not square one but if we're on pandemic square 100 today then at least square 25. I fully believe via all of my scientific knowledge and intuition that when the dust settles and the data is analysed retrospectively after the end of the pandemic they will determine that extra shots weren't significantly beneficial in a global context.
The mRNA vaccines won't help areas that don't have the infrastructure to store them (unless that's also provided... which could take too long). The US still has a large surplus of mRNA vaccines that will expire if not administered.
Or perhaps allowing fourth shots will lead to increased mRNA vaccine production that will cause a shortage of raw materials (beyond facilities and funding) needed for other vaccines? Is it necessarily an exclusive or?
Seems like there's a good chance a fourth dose will turn out to have a relatively small effect on severe illness and death but a much larger effect on cases and in particular long Covid cases. Brain fog and fatigue to the point of disability for a prolonged period---perhaps lasting indefinitely---is not a negligible problem....
A negative likely consequence of the universal coronavirus vaccine (if it continues to appear safe and effective in human trials)---if it renders the risk from new variants negligible and becomes widely available before poorer nations have been vaccinated... rich nations will have much less incentive to fund world vaccination. With the partial exception of China, for those areas they're investing in. But it doesn't require cold storage (at least the US Army vaccine doesn't) and is apparently fully owned by the US government, so the Biden administration could unilaterally authorize worldwide production and transfer of knowledge (... or they could try to keep it secret and use it as geopolitical leverage, or only share it conditionally, etc.).
'We can vaccinate 70% of the world against Covid by mid-2022. Here's how
[...] it will take proper funding, better vaccine distribution and jabs with longer shelf lives
The vaccines being distributed to African countries under the Covax scheme are often close to expiry and their delivery is ad-hoc at best. In Nigeria[...] they just had to destroy more than a million vaccines that were close to expiring.
[...] "There are enormous challenges in getting medicines to the last mile. We know this from years of working with NTDs. It is very hard to reach people who are most affected since they are vulnerable, often marginalised, and live in remote locations with poor roads and infrastructure."
[...] The break in the rollout affected communication efforts and this gap created the space for misinformation and rumours to thrive.
[...] with funding made available, each country can tailor their efforts to combat those circumstances and make sure the vaccines can reach the last mile.
In Kenya[...] they need the resources to undertake door-to-door vaccination campaigns as they do for childhood immunisation.
Where there exists a well-functioning delivery system, nations have high vaccine delivery rates. Kenya, for example, has an estimated 80% coverage for childhood vaccines. In Ghana, it's above 90%. The goal set out by the WHO may not be as unreachable as it appears.'
https://www.theguard...vid-by-mid-2022
'As the U.S., Europe and parts of Asia consume more booster doses than expected, global health advocates hope the emerging vaccine produced by Maryland-based Novavax will fill the supply gap in low- and middle-income countries in 2022.
But while Novavax — after partnering with India's Serum Institute — obtained regulatory approvals from the World Health Organization and European Commission this month, crucial questions remain [...]
Without sign-offs from world regulators to produce vaccines at its U.S. and European sites, Novavax could struggle to meet its 2022 targets, setting back the global vaccination effort[...]
If that happens, and countries across the world continue to roll out booster campaigns, U.S. officials fear the world might not have enough vaccine doses to meet the WHO’s goal of inoculating 70 percent of the global population by the middle of next year.
[...]
Novavax has experienced monthslong delays stemming from difficulties manufacturing a high-quality shot in large batches. [...]
[...] The shot, which does not require freezer storage, is much easier to ship to Africa[...]
Novavax's decision to apply for authorization using data only from the Serum Institute raises questions about the extent to which the company is still experiencing manufacturing problems in the U.S. and Europe. [...] the company was failing to produce data that showed it could manufacture a shot with high purity levels in large batches. One of the main facilities that struggled is in Texas.
[...] A company spokesperson said its goal is to produce 2 billion doses in 2022. But there are lingering concerns among top Biden officials and global health advocates about Novavax's manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and Europe and whether the company can present the data necessary to obtain the regulatory approvals necessary to distribute doses made at those locations any time soon'
https://www.politico...-omicron-526283
This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 05 January 2022 - 02:12 AM
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