[Werthead]

The OSINT sources who have been doing excellent work in Ukraine (you worked out early on who was talking BS and who is more on the ball) have been looking at the hospital bombing footage in considerable detail.

Their conclusion is that the most likely source of the missile was an Islamic Jihad missile battery position located in a nearby cemetery. The main smoking gun they were looking for - or not looking for - was the impact crater, which was tiny. Israeli JDAMS-guided munitions dropped from F-35s and F-16s tend to be 500lbs of explosive at the lower end, which leaves a crater metres across and deep, and would have reduced the entire hospital building to fragments altogether. In the drone and news footage, none of the surrounding buildings are structurally damaged (windows are shattered, some external structuring is blown off, but the main buildings are standing). The fire damage would be consistent with a largely still-fully-fuelled, smaller missile exploding shortly above ground (with Israeli missiles going for ground penetration in the hope of collapsing nearby Hamas tunnels, that would be extremely counterproductive in this case). They also concluded, based on earlier footage, that around 50 people were sleeping in the parking space, but potentially more were milling around for medical attention, which would at least explain the possibly high number of casualties (the suggestion that there were 1,000 people there seems to be wildly exaggerated, there isn't enough space in the car park for a thousand people plus the tents which were present and all the cars that were burned out).

It is possible, if unlikely, that Israeli used a much smaller type of missile than they'd normally deploy for some specific targeting purpose, but it's unclear why or what that would be. The suggestion they tried to fake it looking like an IJ missile to cause casualties feels like a stretch, given they would know that they'd be blamed for it regardless of how much evidence suggested otherwise.

Another possibility is that an Israeli missile exploded above ground or nearby, and it was a missile fragment which hit the lot and exploded, or possibly detonated some fuel storage on the ground, but if so they have not found any evidence of that, or of the main explosion from the main target.

All of this is highly suggestive rather than utterly conclusive, of course.

ETA: The BBC has a good breakdown, and in fact an Al-Jazeera video feed which pretty much shows a rocket going up, misfiring and coming straight down again on the hospital.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 October 2023 - 08:21 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

Abyss, on 18 October 2023 - 07:39 PM, said:

Cause, on 18 October 2023 - 05:00 PM, said:

... none of this would be happening if Hamas did not strike first. If you depend on your enemy for water, fuel and food why would you attack them?...

Because Hamas.
Doesn't care.
About Palestinians.

Yeah man Hamas will be loving the fact that Israel has reacted like this. It's good for recruitment, propaganda, everything! They were banking on exactly this. They don't want peace they want everyone to be enraged with each other.

In exactly the same way that the Israeli government wants this.

[Cause]

Ill allow even more time for answers to form. However, would I be overreacting to call this a case of a Journalistic malpractice (I realize no such thing exists). This story has been handled so poorly, ignited scores of protests around the world and I dont think it would be an exaggeration to say these kinds of stories lead to sympathetic terrorist attacks being carried out elsewhere or could even have been the impetus for Hezbolla to act.

Would the Headline: "Hospital destroyed by explosion, waiting for IDF to comment" been so hard?

[worry]

No harder than "Grandmother eaten, waiting for Big Bad Wolf to comment".

[Chance]

Tiste Simeon, on 18 October 2023 - 08:09 PM, said:

Abyss, on 18 October 2023 - 07:39 PM, said:

Cause, on 18 October 2023 - 05:00 PM, said:

... none of this would be happening if Hamas did not strike first. If you depend on your enemy for water, fuel and food why would you attack them?...

Because Hamas.
Doesn't care.
About Palestinians.

Yeah man Hamas will be loving the fact that Israel has reacted like this. It's good for recruitment, propaganda, everything! They were banking on exactly this. They don't want peace they want everyone to be enraged with each other.

In exactly the same way that the Israeli government wants this.

Might not be popular but I belive the Israeli goverment doesn't want this. Everything indicates that they have been avoiding even touching the Gaza problem in the last few years. They where comfortable with a low level conflict where Hamas kept order in Gaza and occational small flare ups, where Hamas conflict with the palestinian authority in jerusalem kept the palestinians splintered between religious fanatics and corrupt "secular" politicians. Is the current goverment trying to survive by banking on the atrocities for sure, Nethanyau and his allies are basically scum. But the only people who want what is currently happening is Hamas and perhaps the most out there rightwing nutters in Israel.

Regular people on both sides would rather get on with their lives which even in Gaza where getting gradually better until recently with increased mobility between Gaza and Israel, increased integration of economies and so on all deadly to something like Hamas who literarly live on misery and recruit angry young men with no prospects for the most part. Of course the current conflict will generate tens of thousands of new recruits for organisations like Hamas so anyone sane would rather do something else but it is really hard to see any good options for the Israeli who basically have the choice of not responding to one of the worst terror attacks in history or starting a conflict that is counterproductive. With one of those two options being political suicide there was really only one choice available to the Israeli goverment whose leader is a political survivor above all.


Also damn the world has gotten depressing in the last two years...Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, Iran, terror threats against sweds, gang violence wave over here and the economical stuff...

This post has been edited by Chance: 19 October 2023 - 05:51 AM

[Maark Abbott]

QuickTidal, on 18 October 2023 - 06:43 PM, said:

What's Israel's goal after they achieve the elimination of Hamas? Is it the West Bank? Cause that's not much prettier. I'm curious since Netanyahu has stated more than once that his goal it to make sure a Palestinian state never happens...so what's the goal? Let's say Hamas is wiped out by the conflict, and Gaza becomes a free agent...

EDIT: I ask because before Hamas was the PLO...and before that others. Until the Palestinians have freedom in their own lands, I doubt these fundy sects will stop popping up, and as they've stated many times Israel refuses to be the minority in what they see as "their" country...so beyond Hamas it's juts going to be the PIJ or someone else.

Honestly? The only conclusion I can get to is after Hamas, and then the Palestinian populace at large are eliminated, the country is 'unified', and beyond external aggressors there's no land claim there. I don't want to conclude that the Israeli government is engaged in an extermination but the disproportionate nature of their retribution and willingness to target hospitals and medics to mete that out bring me to it as a conclusion. Granted, I am not particularly read on the entire situation and I accept my position is likely to be severely reductive, but as an outsider looking at what we're being shown, that's how it comes across. It feels like any attack on Israel is considered a good reason to further that extermination.

[amphibian]

Minor note - do not trust Shaun King with facts or money. He's been involved in scams for a decade plus now.

[worry]

This is one of the better media summary reports I've seen:

Of course, as bad as this is, it's one of many in a line of ongoing horrors.

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 19 October 2023 - 01:05 PM, said:

...
Bottom line, I just wish the Palestinian people were free and that their country had never been taken from them...I understand that after the tragedies of WWII visited upon the jewish population that they needed a safe place to live and be...but taking over another piece of land belonging to another people and then spending the next 70+ years making everyone believe you have some god-given right to it feels like the biggest gaslighting experiment of all time. ...

This is disputed territory going back hundreds if not thousands of years, and there were jews already living there at the time the state was formed. Majority? No, maybe 10% of the population if we're generous, but they weren't just dropped in out of Europe and told 'go for it'. I ack the mess around how the state was created, but it's far from as simple as 'they took it away from the Palestinians'.



Wanna talk wishes, I just wish the four neighboring states had just taken in the displaced Palestinians instead of going to war w Israel for the following forty years or so while actively supporting groups like the PLO, Hamas, etc. I wish they had just taken that money and resources dedicated to killing the Holocaust survivors and spent it building up Gaza and the West Bank instead of encouraging an entire generation towards rewarding careers as suicide bombers.


There's plenty of blame to go around on all sides. There were plenty of opportunities to course correct. Hate won out every time.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

[Biden] said Israel had agreed to allow the opening of the Egypt-Gaza Rafah crossing to deliveries of desperately needed food, water and medical supplies on condition that the humanitarian assistance was not diverted by Hamas for its own use.

"The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine and shelter," Biden said.

Gaza aid could enter as soon as Friday, says Biden | US news | The Guardian

Quote

[...] Egypt's president agreed to open the crossing and to let in an initial group of 20 trucks with humanitarian aid. If Hamas confiscated aid, "it will end", [Biden] said. [...]

[... he] added that the 20 trucks represented a "first tranche" but "150 or something" trucks were waiting in total. Whether the rest were allowed to cross would depend on "how it goes".

[...] Egyptian president[...] made his toughest remarks yet on Wednesday, saying the war was not just aimed at fighting Hamas[...] "but also an attempt to push the civilian inhabitants to … migrate to Egypt". [...]

Palestinians could instead be moved to Negev desert in Israel "till the militants are dealt with" [he said ...]

[...] Previous assurances from the US that the border would open have not materialised.

Egypt's Rafah crossing: when will aid begin to enter Gaza and why has it been closed? | Israel-Hamas war | The Guardian

Quote

Never in Oxfam's history have we seen a humanitarian crisis like the one in Gaza

[...] 20 truckloads isn't going to come close to addressing the humanitarian catastrophe [...]

Oxfam has been providing humanitarian relief for people caught up in war for decades. [...] But what is happening in Gaza today is unprecedented.

Elsewhere, my brave colleagues would be running relief services; in Gaza today they are running for their lives. Elsewhere, we would be in constant touch with them; in Gaza today their phones are running out of battery because electricity has been cut off. Elsewhere, we would share our location data with combatants to keep staff and civilians safe; in Gaza today, no one is safe.

The humanitarian rulebook has been thrown out, and polite pleas from politicians to "minimise civilian fatalities" are naive at best, and at worst seem blind to the unimaginable horrors already taking place in Gaza.

Never in Oxfam's history have we seen a humanitarian crisis like the one in Gaza | Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah | The Guardian

IDK how much closer 170 trucks would come... or what (if any) rate would be enough.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 19 October 2023 - 04:28 PM, said:

Right but it was still Palestine and had been for decades as far as the Brits were concerned the it was a Mandate, and the vast majority of the pop. was Arab. 'Disputed' feels like it's refusing to acknowledge that the Arab's have spent those centuries fending off people from their indigenous lands. We're talking about at least since 1096 when the Christians invaded the holy land and possibly before that.

[...]

Okay but why do 90% of the original indigenous population of the region have to move? I don't get it. I really don't get it. Isn't that like being in Canada and saying "I wish those indigenous Canadians had just been relocated and the white Canadians could have that land"...?

Times of Israel:

Quote

A new study suggests the biblical account of the commanded annihilation of the ancient Canaanite people at the hands of the invading Israelites was a bit premature [premature? what?], claiming their descendants are still living just up the road, across the Lebanese border.

[...] genetic research [...] has found that far from being destroyed, the Canaanites morphed into the inhabitants of modern Lebanon. [...]

[...] the Israelites[...] were commanded by God to annihilate them[...] According to the study, the Canaanites were the common ancestor[...]

According to the study, the Canaanite-related ancestry "derived from mixture between local Neolithic populations and eastern migrants genetically related to Chalcolithic Iranians."

[...] Deuteronomy 20:16 [...]

"But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God gives you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, but you shall utterly destroy them[...] as the Lord your God has commanded."

[...] archaeological evidence does not support widespread destruction of Canaanite cities [...] For example, coastal cities such as Sidon and Tyre "show continuity of occupation until the present day." [unless the Israelis occupied them after killing the inhabitants?... I didn't see a call for destruction of buildings, only genocide]

[...] In Judges 3:1-3, it is described how [...] remnants of the Canaanite peoples were allowed to exist, including "the five lords of the Philistines and all the Canaanites [...] who lived on Mount Lebanon…"

The Canaanites weren't annihilated, they just 'moved' to Lebanon | The Times of Israel

Times of Israel referring to the the Biblical account of the genocide as 'a bit premature' is obviously horrific... WTF.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 October 2023 - 04:51 PM

[Cause]

Abyss, on 19 October 2023 - 02:19 PM, said:

This is disputed territory going back hundreds if not thousands of years, and there were jews already living there at the time the state was formed. Majority? No, maybe 10% of the population if we're generous, but they weren't just dropped in out of Europe and told 'go for it'. I ack the mess around how the state was created, but it's far from as simple as 'they took it away from the Palestinians'.

I actually think this overcomplicates the siltation. Who the fuck cares How it took 2000 years for the Kingdom of Judea to become the roman province of Palestine to become part of the turkish empire before becoming Israel again, throw in alexander the great and the Persians and and a 1000 years before Jesus besides. Also despite what many think the holocaust wasnt a major reason for the creation of the State of Israel and the british prevented thousands of refugees from fleeing from Europe to Israel during it. The history isnt not wholly unimportant of course, Israel wouldnt exist without the historical link but ultimately its really the only last 100 years that matter. The land of palestine/israel wasnt independent for centuries or thousand of years prior to the Turkish defeat in WW1 and the creation of the mandate of palestine and its current borders have no preceeding basis in history either. Roman palestine and Roman Judea were once combined into Syria palestine for example and their were 3 other roman provinces that bore the name palestine as well with different borders. Jordan was part of the mandate of palestine and was cut away and given to Abdulla as his kingdom as payment for his services during WW1. The emergence of a distinct Palestinian people linked to the land of palestine is partly a growth and a reaction to the increased immigration of Jews into what was than a British territory which led to fears of a growing Jewish presence. They are named from the land, the land wasnt named them for. It makes the immigrant crisis in the US today seem small. This doesnt diminish their claim to the land they and their forefathers lived in but it does I think mean that we speak of this conflict as having a biblical time scale it just makes the way out even harder to see.

Azath Vitr (D, on 19 October 2023 - 04:50 PM, said:

Times of Israel:

Quote

A new study suggests the biblical account of the commanded annihilation of the ancient Canaanite people at the hands of the invading Israelites was a bit premature [premature? what?], claiming their descendants are still living just up the road, across the Lebanese border.

Times of Israel referring to the the Biblical account of the genocide as 'a bit premature' is obviously horrific... WTF.

The timing and the headline do seem crass and wierd but I dont think it should be understood to be advocating a job unfinished so much as just more proof that the bible *shock* *horror* isnt historically accurate. No evidence for the jews leaving out of egypt and immigrating to Israel either. Genetially speaking many Israelis are a very close match to their semtiic arab neighnors in the region aswell. Niether Secular or religious Jews are going to plan to murder anyone over a DNA test. Unless they find the Amalek.

[Werthead]

Missiles and drones were launched from Yemen and tracking north-west towards targets either in Saudi Arabia or Israel. A US warship in the Red Sea decided not to wait to find out and shot them down.

Both a demonstration of how this might escalate and how the US might have to directly intervene in this conflict. The US position seems to be that if Hezbollah attacks Israel when Israeli ground troops go into Gaza, their two carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean will directly engage Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 19 October 2023 - 07:15 PM, said:

Abyss, on 19 October 2023 - 02:19 PM, said:

This is disputed territory going back hundreds if not thousands of years, and there were jews already living there at the time the state was formed. Majority? No, maybe 10% of the population if we're generous, but they weren't just dropped in out of Europe and told 'go for it'. I ack the mess around how the state was created, but it's far from as simple as 'they took it away from the Palestinians'.

I actually think this overcomplicates the siltation. Who the fuck cares How it took 2000 years for the Kingdom of Judea to become the roman province of Palestine to become part of the turkish empire before becoming Israel again, throw in alexander the great and the Persians and and a 1000 years before Jesus besides. Also despite what many think the holocaust wasnt a major reason for the creation of the State of Israel and the british prevented thousands of refugees from fleeing from Europe to Israel during it. The history isnt not wholly unimportant of course, Israel wouldnt exist without the historical link but ultimately its really the only last 100 years that matter. The land of palestine/israel wasnt independent for centuries or thousand of years prior to the Turkish defeat in WW1 and the creation of the mandate of palestine and its current borders have no preceeding basis in history either. Roman palestine and Roman Judea were once combined into Syria palestine for example and their were 3 other roman provinces that bore the name palestine as well with different borders. Jordan was part of the mandate of palestine and was cut away and given to Abdulla as his kingdom as payment for his services during WW1. The emergence of a distinct Palestinian people linked to the land of palestine is partly a growth and a reaction to the increased immigration of Jews into what was than a British territory which led to fears of a growing Jewish presence. They are named from the land, the land wasnt named them for. It makes the immigrant crisis in the US today seem small. This doesnt diminish their claim to the land they and their forefathers lived in but it does I think mean that we speak of this conflict as having a biblical time scale it just makes the way out even harder to see.

Azath Vitr (D, on 19 October 2023 - 04:50 PM, said:

Times of Israel:

Quote

A new study suggests the biblical account of the commanded annihilation of the ancient Canaanite people at the hands of the invading Israelites was a bit premature [premature? what?], claiming their descendants are still living just up the road, across the Lebanese border.

Times of Israel referring to the the Biblical account of the genocide as 'a bit premature' is obviously horrific... WTF.

The timing and the headline do seem crass and wierd but I dont think it should be understood to be advocating a job unfinished so much as just more proof that the bible *shock* *horror* isnt historically accurate. No evidence for the jews leaving out of egypt and immigrating to Israel either. Genetially speaking many Israelis are a very close match to their semtiic arab neighnors in the region aswell. Niether Secular or religious Jews are going to plan to murder anyone over a DNA test. Unless they find the Amalek.

The article's from a few years ago, and saying that the Biblical account of genocide 'was a bit premature' was almost certainly intended to be taken as a joke. Obviously I like a lot of very dark humor, but that's atrocious---especially for a major Israeli newspaper.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 October 2023 - 10:35 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

"We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South," said one senior G7 diplomat. "All the work we have done with the Global South [over Ukraine] has been lost . .. Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won't ever listen to us again."

Many developing countries have traditionally supported the Palestinian cause, seeing it through the prism of self-determination and a push against the global dominance of the US, Israel's most important backer.

Some American diplomats are privately concerned that the Biden administration's response has failed to acknowledge how its broad support of Israel can alienate much of the Global South.

[...]

"What we said about Ukraine has to apply to Gaza. Otherwise we lose all our credibility," the senior G7 diplomat added. "The Brazilians, the South Africans, the Indonesians: why should they ever believe what we say about human rights?"

Rush by west to back Israel erodes developing countries' support for Ukraine (ft.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 October 2023 - 12:56 AM

[worry]

Good interview with journalist Amira Hass of Haaretz, covering several angles, from Israel's right wing project to finish the Nakba, to Hamas' seeming absolute incompetence (at best, likely indifference or worse) toward the political and humanitarian consequences for non-combatants as a result of their own acts of war (including but not limited to the atrocities).


Transcript if preferred, as video is ~25 minutes: https://www.democrac...ass_daughter_of

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Far from pursuing de-escalation, Netanyahu is predicting a “long war”. In fact, it seems that’s what he wants.

“This is in no one’s interest save Netanyahu, who likely sees the end of his government coming with the end of the upcoming battle with Hamas,” [...] Prolonged conflict, inflicting more civilian casualties and greater regional instability, could suck in the US ever more deeply.

[...] Biden, trapped by his blind spots [...] now “owns” this war. If the situation deteriorates further, there will be no escaping it.

[...] Netanyahu, who Biden did so much to save last week, would be among those cheering his defeat.

Toxic Netanyahu could drag Biden down in his fight for political survival | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian

So Netanyahu may try to extend the war as long as possible to remain in power... perhaps even extending it to full-blown war with Lebanon, Syria, maybe even Iran?

Quote

Biden said he asked Netanyahu and other Israeli officials [...] whether they had a plan for what to do in Gaza after dismantling Hamas.

They told him they do not have one yet.

[...] Oct. 10 speech "was all Joe Biden," according to a source familiar with the speech-writing process, who said Biden shot down aides' attempts to water down the language or balance the messages.

And many people on the president's team didn't want him to go to Israel, but he decided to do it[...]

"[...] there are posters of Joe Biden all over Israel [...]"

Inside Biden's Gaza strategy (axios.com)

[Cause]

Netanyahu is toast. He was already shaky. This attack under his watch has doomed him for sure. I would imagine he will be forced to step down and resign even rather than be voted out but I’m not an expert in Israeli politics. I just know that’s he was unpopular before between an impending fraud charge and trying to overpower the Israeli Supreme Court. Israel is having a rally around the flag moment as a state but Netanyahu specifically hasn’t seen any improvement in his favourability. In fact the opposite.

Israel won’t want to expand the conflict to Syria and Lebanon and certainly not Iran. The days of Israel fighting four of its Arabs neighbors at once and winning are over. Modern technology won’t allow for it I think and iron dome or not I doubt Israel could stop the destruction that would come its way. Israel already had to call up all the reserves for this already. The standing army is about 200 000 and most of them are short term conscripts with a very small core of career soldiers. The reservists are trained but are also just former short term conscripts who train a few times a year. A prolonged war means hundreds of thousands of people called away from their jobs. This isn’t an American president playing games with drone strikes and bombings halfway around the world that the majority of Americans will never see. This is a fight on the borders and already inside the home front. The people would go nuts if they saw even a whiff of him using the war to prop up his presidency. Israel is 1 hour by car east to west and 5 hours by car north to south. It’s only ever one military disaster in the field away from complete failure.

I always laugh when I remembered in Enders game that Scott card wrote that the strategos is always Jewish because the world thinks they are unbeatable generals (is this positive Racism). Israel’s success to this part is as much a testament to their prior successes as it is to their enemies failures.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 21 October 2023 - 05:12 PM, said:

I would imagine he will be forced to step down and resign even rather than be voted out but I'm not an expert in Israeli politics. [...]

Israel won't want to expand the conflict to Syria and Lebanon and certainly not Iran. The days of Israel fighting four of its Arabs neighbors at once and winning are over. Modern technology won't allow for it I think and iron dome or not I doubt Israel could stop the destruction that would come its way.

[...] The people would go nuts if they saw even a whiff of him using the war to prop up his presidency.

Experts apparently expect Netanyahu will be forced out of power (he's not going to resign in genuine shame, he seems shameless)---but only after the war is 'over'....

Israel wouldn't want to fight four of its neighbors at once again. But if Hamas seems almost completely defeated in Gaza, Netanyahu could expand the war to Lebanon---probably provoking Hezbollah and using that as an excuse---and could then probably count on US backing (of course not just in terms of equipment or funding, but also the US directly launching air strikes, etc., though probably not ground troops). Then, if that war seems near ending (with Lebanon having been reduced to rubble), he could move on to Syria---using Hezbollah's Syrian presence as an excuse, and again relying on US military backing.

Netanyahu's goal would be to extend the war while not being obvious enough about it for Biden or the Israeli people to potentially withdraw support---with provoking Hezbollah into a sufficiently extreme counterattack being the simplest way to do that.

Quote

Tehran may have little understood what the attack would unleash. [...]

[...] Iran would likely prefer to sacrifice Hamas rather than waste Hezbollah, unless Iran itself comes under threat.

By keeping Israel on edge on its northern border, Hezbollah is in effect already helping Hamas, but doing so within the rules of engagement established after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Both sides understand that script, although the risk of a miscalculation is great. For now, Israeli officials are making clear that they don't want a war with Lebanon—and simultaneously threatening to destroy the country if Hezbollah goes too far. [...]

[...] If Israel can level large parts of Beirut or other areas of Lebanon in the event of an escalation, Hezbollah is now also able to inflict devastating damage deep into Israel. This capability will be factored into Israel's planning for a ground war in Gaza: How far can Israel go before Hezbollah unleashes a barrage of rockets? [...]

[...] Hezbollah has been assisting [...]Assad to brutally put down [... the Syrian] uprising [...] [Recently ...] Israel struck the Damascus and Aleppo airports, raising the possibility of a Syrian front against Israel rather than one in Lebanon. Hezbollah would still be involved and play a key role, but Israeli retaliation would target Syria, a country that's still at war and that has a president who owes his survival to Tehran and will have little say as to whether or how he will participate.

[...] Lebanon has been exhausted by a three-year economic crisis, and it is still recovering from the massive explosion at the Beirut port in 2020. [...]

[...] despite its bombast and rhetoric, the regime in Iran is not suicidal and will not seek to take a last stand and go down in flames. Whatever Tehran does now, together with Hezbollah, will be carefully calculated to ensure the survival of the regime and a smooth transition for the succession of the 84-year-old Khamenei.

[...] Khamenei has been working to improve Iran's hand thanks to ties with China and Russia and the use of proxy militias. [...] He is now using the Palestinian cause to re-burnish his regional credentials.

What Does Iran Want? - The Atlantic

So Iran would probably go out of its way to avoid direct war with US-backed Israel. And Hezbollah would probably also be reluctant. Though there's also the question of how much support Russia and (especially) China could provide....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 October 2023 - 06:54 PM

[worry]

A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance

(It's from Haaretz, using the archive.ph URL due to paywall)