[amphibian]

The 10/7/2023 Hamas attacks killed about 800 people and wounded 2300. No territory was taken and a nation state vs nation state war did not ensue. I think several days later, we are at roughly 1200 Israeli dead, 3500 wounded, 200 captives, close to 2000 Palestinian dead, over 7000 wounded.

Comparing these aren't even in the apples and oranges territory - it's like comparing apples and a shoe. They are dramatically different things and China invading Taiwan is going to look very different from this.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 amphibian, on 13 October 2023 - 03:48 PM, said:

The 10/7/2023 Hamas attacks killed about 800 people and wounded 2300. No territory was taken and a nation state vs nation state war did not ensue. I think several days later, we are at roughly 1200 Israeli dead, 3500 wounded, 200 captives, close to 2000 Palestinian dead, over 7000 wounded.

Comparing these aren't even in the apples and oranges territory - it's like comparing apples and a shoe. They are dramatically different things and China invading Taiwan is going to look very different from this.

Could delve into the long history of surprise attacks (and failures of imagination on the part of those attacked) that did initiate major wars between nations...

But I think your implicit argument is that Israeli intelligence not seeing 10/7 coming is not comparable to US intelligence not detecting Chinese preparations for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan because the scale is vastly different. That may be, but as I quoted before, several military experts have publicly stated that a pre-2024 election timeline would be feasible, and the US military has already been preparing for that (extremely unlikely) contingency.

There is also the (very remote) possibility of a more limited series of initial attacks (missiles most obviously) to help Trump get elected, with invasion delayed until after Trump's inauguration.

[Mentalist]

China is benefitting from the chaos without contributing much.

If Israel starts a ground op, then things will get even more messy. But China gets to sit in the ivory tower and claim moral high ground by being above the fight.

This prelude stage is all about trying to draw the swing states (India, LatAm and Africa, predominantly) into your camp. Only way for China to actually benefit is if it can do what Putler did not and pull off a successful blitz.

And you can't pull off a naval landing op blitz without prep. So. I think we have time at least until the spring.

[Cause]

I think Ramaswamy said something very interesting during a sound bite once. I’m paraphrasing but it was something like “We must be clear to China we will protect Taiwan until we have silicon chip manufacturing independence”.

Crazy thing to say but I thought there was a kernel of truth in there. The whole world depends on those chip factories. It’s actually a global vulnerability. Whether the US intervenes or not they will probably be damaged. The world however will react poorly and make that clear for now.

Also time keeps marching forward and things change but realistically I am still not sure if China has the capability for an actual amphibious invasion of the island. They have dramatically improved their air force and navy size but such an invasion in modern times with modern armaments would be unprecedented. I think we would only have game theory to decide how easy or not it would be to blow every troop ship out of the water with an opening missile barrage in the first week of the war.

Russia and China are not the same nor is Taiwan Ukraine but Russia is showing how hard it is to invade over land and Ukraine is showing how better arms and more Ammunition win. Now imagine invading over water. Although once invaded Taiwan won’t have any strategic depth.

[Mentalist]

There's a reason US starting building domestic chip foundries. If there's an invasion, that production chain is gone forever.

Which is why it's highly unlikely that US will allow the Chinese Navy free hand in the Straight for the next few years.

[the broken]

Amphibious landings are hellishly difficult. If and when they try one, it will be based on whether they think they are capable of it, not politics in the US or what other people are doing. If they do otherwise, it will be a hastily planned operation that will probably be a catastrophe.

Who is the US President at the time doesn't matter.

[Lady Bliss]

To add to my conspiracy theory… Hamas’ weapons appear to be Russian or Chinese according to CNN. I doubt Russia would be squandering weapons elsewhere when they need them in Ukraine (although Putin has done crazy shit before), I could still see China stirring up crap. Anywho, we will have to wait and see.

On another note, why is the world so slow in condemning Israel? I agree the Hamas attack was atrocious but what Israel is doing to Gaza would be considered war crimes if done by anyone else. I get the fear of antisemitism but everyone needs to be held accountable for their actions and our failure to view both sides fairly plays right into the story of anti Muslim hate that terrorists cling to.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 the broken, on 13 October 2023 - 11:54 PM, said:

Amphibious landings are hellishly difficult. If and when they try one, it will be based on whether they think they are capable of it, not politics in the US or what other people are doing. If they do otherwise, it will be a hastily planned operation that will probably be a catastrophe.

Who is the US President at the time doesn't matter.

The threat of direct US military intervention is one of China's primary deterrents. US support for Taiwan in terms of funding, equipment, supplies, intelligence, etc. is another. From the start of his presidency, Trump could prevent or end the former, end US military / intelligence support, and delay all funding or supplies for Taiwan for at least a year. Once he's established his autocratic regime he could effectively end all US (governmental) support for Taiwan.

If it were a more conventional pre-MAGA Republican or a more conventional Democrat like Biden it wouldn't matter much who's president. OTOH anti-China sentiment among the MAGA base might still be enough to dissuade Trump from ending all US support for Taiwan---at least until his autocracy is better established and he's managed to come up with rationalizations or conspiracy theories his base will accept.

 Lady Bliss, on 14 October 2023 - 11:46 AM, said:

On another note, why is the world so slow in condemning Israel? I agree the Hamas attack was atrocious but what Israel is doing to Gaza would be considered war crimes if done by anyone else. I get the fear of antisemitism but everyone needs to be held accountable for their actions and our failure to view both sides fairly plays right into the story of anti Muslim hate that terrorists cling to.

Despite the Biden administration's talk about 'the rules of war', they've failed to criticize Israel for blatant ongoing war crimes.

It will almost certainly get much worse. Hamas will call Israel's bluff on the blockade. As hospital generators die, so will many innocent Palestinians. As water supplies run out for civilians, there will be mass deaths. (The Mediterranean is saltier than the Atlantic ocean....) Since Hamas almost certainly prepared ample supplies of water (as well as food) in their extensive networks of tunnels, Palestinian civilians will depend on Hamas to stay alive... increasing Hamas's influence, and recruiting more to their side (out of necessity if nothing else).

Wonder if this was an accident or another revenge killing (of civilians):

Quote

70 people — mostly women and children — were killed after Israeli airstrikes hit convoys of Palestinian evacuees heading south in Gaza.

Israel-Hamas war live updates: 70 killed after convoys of evacuees in Gaza hit by Israeli airstrikes (nbcnews.com)

That's going to discourage evacuation, and make the urban invasion even more difficult:

Quote

"[Hamas] can use their tunnel network to get in behind the attack or to attack in all directions to make it very difficult for Israel to effectively employ a technological advantage."

[...] Hamas will likely try to take the fight into a proverbial phone booth, up close and personal, "where it's very hard to discern where Israeli forces end or Hamas begins."

[...] blend into the dense urban environment [...] using women, children, and disabled people as human shields[...]

[...] Gaza[...] is about the geographic size of Philadelphia and is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

[...] "[IDF] will have to dismount their infantry and essentially fight soldier on soldier and block by block [...],"

[...] Hamas has become very comfortable fighting in the urban jungle on home soil. As IDF troops come forward, [...] they are likely to face obstacles aimed at directing them into prepared kill zones where mines, anti-tank missiles, and deadly drones can take out their tanks and vehicles.

"This is about as hard a tactical problem as anyone has faced lately,"

What Israel's Gaza ground invasion to crush Hamas could look like. (slate.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 14 October 2023 - 01:25 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

throngs of people [...] waiting with their empty bottles for the water truck to come by.

When it passed, they surged forward, each one desperate to fill up a bottle or two to quench the thirst of the families they fled with.

"The hardest thing today is finding water to drink," [...]

The entire Gaza Strip is in danger of running out of water, the United Nations warned on Saturday. Many Gazans do not have access to clean drinking water and are resorting to drinking polluted water [which will also run out].

[...] "It has become a matter of life and death," [...] "It is a must: Fuel needs to be delivered now into Gaza to make water available for two million people."

[...] "It's a struggle for life here," [...] "There's no food. There's no water. There's no sleep."

Nearly Half of Gaza's Population Displaced in Humanitarian Crisis - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

... except for Hamas, and some of its supporters....

But a glance at the weather forecast indicates a good chance of a few rain showers over the next couple of days, which should help at least a little (depending on how drinkable that rainwater is...).

Quote

[Sunday] 43% [chance of precipitation]

A morning thunderstorm in spots; otherwise, partly sunny, breezy and not as warm

[Monday] 65%

A morning shower in places; otherwise, sunshine and a few clouds

Gaza, Gaza, Palestine Daily Weather | AccuWeather

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 14 October 2023 - 09:26 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Israel has resumed the supply of water to southern Gaza[...] following an agreement [... with ...] Biden. "This will push the civilian population to the southern (part of the) Strip," [...] the Biden administration's goal had been "to make sure that innocent Palestinians get access to those basic necessities and are protected from bombardment."

Israel Resumes Water Supply to Southern Gaza (thedailybeast.com)

Biden's administration probably deserves some credit for that---assuming Israel wasn't going to do it anyway.

But there are many innocent Palestinians in hospitals in northern Gaza who can't be moved... what about them?

And the IDF will want to scour the south for Hamas eventually too---then they'll try to drive everyone back north I'd guess, since Egypt is refusing to let in refugees.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 15 October 2023 - 06:11 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

[...] China won't invade Taiwan, and the U.S. Navy won't engage Chinese forces any time in the foreseeable future. It's a scam [...] whose point is to cover up the incompetence and corruption which led the Pentagon to spend trillions on obsolete weapons. [...]

The U.S. Department of Defense has known since no later than 2012—when I consulted [...] at the Office of Net Assessment—that Chinese surface-to-surface (STS) missiles can destroy U.S. aircraft carriers, or any other military asset that isn't submerged. Not until recently did the U.S. military concede this in official assessments.

[...] China is under no time pressure to take military action. From a military standpoint, a seaborne landing like the Normandy invasion [...] would be senseless. Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption. A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order.

The Pentagon knows this, and isn't stupid enough to stumble into a firefight. Nonetheless, American commanders talk as if Chinese soldiers are about to hit Taiwanese beaches.

[...]

And that doesn't take into account Chinese hypersonic missiles, against which there is no defense; hypersonics fly as fast as the anti-missile missiles that are supposed to intercept them. "China has tested and deployed a new longer-range hypersonic missile that is probably able to evade U.S. defenses, according to an overlooked top-secret document among those recently leaked.

[...]

In sad emulation of great powers of the past, the United States has invested in the wrong kind of weapons for a kind of war that won't be fought again.

China Isn't Going to War Because It Doesn't Have To | Opinion (msn.com)

[Abyss]

Keep in mind tho that 'oh no the rest of the world will be mad at us' has been a minimal at most consideration for Israel for decades now.
They don't care. They can't care. What you call war crimes they call necessary force and anyone who says otherwise obviously has no idea what it's like to live there etc etc etc. This monologue has been rolling for generations. Whatever Biden threatens to cut off or deny is limited because Netanyahu is as likely to say 'k, you do that, scuze me i gotta take this call and order some more bombings, this'll just take a minute'. The entire babies/rapes/executions did/didn't happen thing... didn't matter. They were going to bomb the hell out of Gaza the moment the Hamas incursion started. Hamas knew it, Hamas counted on it. Most of them are probably hiding in Lebanon and elsewhere hitting the hookah and watching Israel bomb their distant relatives on their phones. The ones Israel is fighting are the ones who were disposable, disconnected, and/or fanatic/stupid enough to stay. The planners were never there and the leaders gtfo'd their families before it started and then themselves before the first drone launched.


It's all so very fucked and now civilians on both sides but mostly Palestinians are going to be chewed up and anti-Israel/anti-Jew sentiment is going to skyrocket around the world.

[Cause]

 QuickTidal, on 16 October 2023 - 01:59 PM, said:

ESPECIALLY after the realization by the global media that the stories of 40 kidnapped or beheaded babies, and raped rave girl and all those things were completely fabricated propaganda.

Call me crazy but I consider the purposeful murder of music festival attendees to be the greater crime. Whether she was raped or not, whether they are raping the hostages or not their opening salvo in their attack included the purposeful aim to kill civilians.

Both sides kill civilians, one side has it as their strategic goal.

I have noted that online (not always the best place for reasoned discourse. I am referring to youtube, instagram comment sections not this forum or you Quiktidal) the general narrative of many is that Israeli civilians deserve what they get as they are linked with the Israeli government. Palestinian citizens are the victims of both Hamas and Israel. I don't deny Palestinians are victims of Hamas but they were elected in 2006 even if they havenn't allowed elections since. I dont hold civilians responsible for their deaths nor will I ever advocate for it. When Palestinians in Gaza, Canada and the USA cheer a terrorist attack they are linked too their actions. I am not Israeli but I am Jewish (by birth and not practicing) and even with just that tenuous link I feel ashamed when Israel or other Jews act in a manner I find distasteful. I am glad the water is turned back on (how could it not be?), when a far-right Jew calls for a Nakba I feel disgust. I don't believe any other nation would act differently than Israel in bombing terrorists after a terror attack. The post 9/11 war on terror comes to mind.

I also dont understand why Palestinian nationhood has to be an all or nothing event. Admittedly not my area of expertise. Still why dont they declare Gaza and the West Bank a nation even if in doing so they make clear they dont give up their claims to more land in the future. Surely that seed would be better than nothing. Israel wont give up Jerusalem and they are the ones negotiating from the position of strength not weakness given that its their current capital. I would argue that the deamnd for Jerusalem or even just the eastern half has been used purposefully to keep this conflict ongoing. Over the 70+ years of this conflict a lot of pollical players including the USSR, USA, the Arab block (Iran currently deserves special mention) and more have had reasons to prefer the conflict keep going and they have encouraged its de facto status. In 1948 Palestinians didnt accept the proposed 2 state solution and were encouraged not to by the surrounding Arab nations that launched a war they lost. From 1948 to 1967 despite having control of Gaza, the west bank and east Jerusalem still they didnt form a nation state. In 1971 the PLO tried to take over Jordan in a coup. Jordan was once part of the mandate of palestine but somehow the Palestinian people's land is the exact modern borders of the modern state of Israel (I often even see people use maps that include the Golan heights). Borders which never existed until 1948. The land dispute is arbitary. This is not a war of religion, or ethnicity though of course its easy to draw the line. This is a war of naked politics which has now dragged on so long there is no foreseeable way to end it equitably.

The Two state solution is DOA if the Palestinians will never accept a deal without Jerusalem. The goal posts are ever shifting and the longer the delay the worse their positions in the West bank becomes. I believe that the Israeli governments would have dismantled all the settlements for peace 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago. That becomes harder and harder to accomplish every year as their number and population grows. I believe they were once meant as a negotiating tactic to force talks to move, but now have become co-opted by the far-right and ultra-orthodox in a way that is now as much an obstacle to peace as anything done by palestinians. In fact I will look into this more soon.

The one state solution is DOA. A one state election would leave jews as the voting minority in the new state. Any goverment formed would include enough Hamas leaders that no Jew could ever feel safe in accepting this outcome. I am always amazed when people suggest this as the most morally and idealistic solution as if it wouldnt end in a massacre and if it wasnt more remote than jupiter.

Negotiations stalled decades ago and every year the Palestinians hand has gotten worse and worse and yet the deamnds remain as unrealistic as ever. I believed for a while that strengthing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors would potentially finally end this conflict as perhaps a realistic solution could be reached now that the goal of annihilating Israel has been abandoned by most and the Arab states were clearly signalling that. This conflict wont be won by militarily actions. Israel is too strong for that. If Hamas could go 5 years without firing a rocket I think they could start a snowball effect in gathering some serious political headwind but they seem incapable. Perhaps they do it for their own power, or perhaps they do it at the behest of Iran.

[Lady Bliss]

I agree there’s a lot of complexities at play here, but the 2 state solution with a shared Jerusalem is really the only option. It would never happen, but since Jerusalem is holy to Jewish, Christian, and Islamic faiths, it would be best if it was declared an international holy city with anonymity like the Vatican. Again, that would never happen today, but maybe someday…

[Cause]

 Lady Bliss, on 16 October 2023 - 05:23 PM, said:

I agree there’s a lot of complexities at play here, but the 2 state solution with a shared Jerusalem is really the only option. It would never happen, but since Jerusalem is holy to Jewish, Christian, and Islamic faiths, it would be best if it was declared an international holy city with anonymity like the Vatican. Again, that would never happen today, but maybe someday…

Why cant it be what it is today, a city run by Israel that is free to visit by anyone.

Its the capital of Israel, has been since 1967 and with a population of a million people is home to 10 percent of the entire population of the country. Thinking that will change or even expecting it to is an immediate non-starter.

[Abyss]

 Cause, on 16 October 2023 - 04:55 PM, said:

... I believe that the Israeli governments would have dismantled all the settlements for peace 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago. That becomes harder and harder to accomplish every year as their number and population grows. I believe they were once meant as a negotiating tactic to force talks to move, but now have become co-opted by the far-right and ultra-orthodox in a way that is now as much an obstacle to peace as anything done by palestinians. In fact I will look into this more soon....

It was a problem 30 years ago and it remains a problem. There is no world where Israel will move those settlers. There is no world where those settlers would be safe in a Palestinian state. Attempting to draw borders around a Palestinian state that excludes the settlements is a state that looks like a cubist porcupine. The 'radical' Israe;i faction has entrenched themselves as a human barrier to peace.

 Lady Bliss, on 16 October 2023 - 05:23 PM, said:

I agree there's a lot of complexities at play here, but the 2 state solution with a shared Jerusalem is really the only option. It would never happen, but since Jerusalem is holy to Jewish, Christian, and Islamic faiths, it would be best if it was declared an international holy city with anonymity like the Vatican. Again, that would never happen today, but maybe someday…

Again, there's no world where Israel agrees to this. They tried that, it turned into multiple wars, so they took it, bled and died for it, and too many of them live there to ever give it up.

The way, i think, a Two State solution works, has Palestinians taking what they have and keeping it the fuck under control and keeping Hamas and co out. Live alongside Israel for even five years without anyone trying to sneak across for a murder spree or lobbing missiles over, and the borders will open, labour and goods will be able to move, Palestinians can visit Jerusalem to their hearts' content. We know this can happen because Israel has managed it with Egypt for decades, and, to a lesser/messier extent with Lebanon and Syria. But the only way that happens is if some moderate takes control, wipes Hamas and co off the map and keeps them out and stays alive. Which probably requires Israeli support. Which makes them a traitor. And so on....

[worry]

 Cause, on 16 October 2023 - 04:55 PM, said:

Both sides kill civilians, one side has it as their strategic goal.

I think this might be a point of disagreement, because -- from my own interpretation of the facts, at least -- this premise just isn't true.

One perspective I think is worth reading:


The latest figures (keeping in mind that a full 50% of the population of Gaza are children):

[Cause]

 worry, on 16 October 2023 - 10:52 PM, said:

 Cause, on 16 October 2023 - 04:55 PM, said:

Both sides kill civilians, one side has it as their strategic goal.

I think this might be a point of disagreement, because -- from my own interpretation of the facts, at least -- this premise just isn't true.

One perspective I think is worth reading:


The latest figures (keeping in mind that a full 50% of the population of Gaza are children):

Is it a genocide because the number hit 3000? Because the ratio is 2:1? Or is it based on a percentage? Is Ukraine Carrying out a genocide against Russia, they are killing the Russians twice as fast and its hit 120,000 so far. Did America carry out a genocide against Iraqis, over 100,000 civilian deaths resulted according to the lower estimates. There is a difference between killing people and genocide.

When you accuse a people who were the victim's of an actual assembly line level genocide you weaken the meaning of the word.

So far only one side has purposefully opened fire into a crowd of 3000 civilians, with the purpose of aiming to kill civilians as the actual Goal. The IDF kills civilians but its not the goal. Even Hamas realized the attack was too far from a PR point and has tried to blame unaffiliated Palestinian fighters. Or at least they did after one of their leader in Qatar tried and failed to argue they were a military target.

Hamas attacked and withdrew, they did it knowing the outcome. They do it on purpose to draw out the response in the hopes to profit off the inevitable deaths and tragedy. Its a false analogy toc omapre it to an angry husband beating his wife. When the USA conducts its freedom of navigation exercises in the strait of Taiwan there is a reason China doesn’t destroy the ships even though they have the strategic advantage so close to their own place of power. They can undertsand the chain of cause and effect and the resultant consequences. This is war between state actors. Hamas didnt attack to achieve any real military or political goal, nor are they just some innocent wife in an abusive relationship. They attacked specifically to provoke the response they are getting. The response was the goal.

This post has been edited by Cause: 17 October 2023 - 07:27 AM

[Chance]

I wrote a longer post then I realized that it boiled down to one thing and that Cause above said the important stuff

One side elected terrorists, abetted them using taxes/aid money to build rockets/buy weapons and throws parties/world wide manifestations of support when their terrorist champions kill children.

It doesn't make it less of a tragedy what is happening but it isn't very surprising it is simply the consequences and it isn't a war crime or a genocide.

This post has been edited by Chance: 17 October 2023 - 06:12 AM

[Maark Abbott]

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Hamas originally funded by the Israeli government?

I'm also very, very leery of the defense that 'the IDF kills civilians, but it's not the goal' when the civilians they're killing are akin to fish in a barrel. It feels more like the attack is being used to justify a little bit more extermination and that should alarm everyone.

I think it's also important to further split the two factions out because you have two extremes in positions of leadership (although it's a bit more debatable for Hamas) and then the civilians on each side. Unfortunately I don't see any good outcomes either way, but that could just be the general pessimism with the world talking.