Yesterday:
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Since the spring, Hezbollah and Hamas leaders have made public statements about the "unification of fronts," in which Iranian-backed adversaries in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the Golan Heights would menace Israel from all sides. Hamas leaders have met several times this year with Hezbollah[...] But the unification of fronts may not mean a multifront assault.
[...] for now, Hezbollah seems unlikely to get further involved. It has too much to lose. The group knows that Israel's retaliation against Lebanon would be even more devastating than the war of 2006. Since 2019, Lebanon has been crushed by a ruinous economic and political crisis, and Hezbollah's base of supporters cannot afford greater hardship.
A Message From Iran (msn.com)
I was very skeptical about this argument---with funding from Iran and other external sources, how much does Hezbollah actually care about the well-being of the Lebanese people? The more destitute, less educated, and angrier they are---particularly if that anger is redirected at Israel---the more powerful Hezbollah becomes?
And even if Netanyahu eventually gets forced out because of his failure to stop the attack, the vicious cycle of militant right-wing hard-liners reinforcing each others' popularity is seems likely to continue---his replacement would probably not be more pro-Palestinian.
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US will likely 'go to war' in Israel with air and naval power if Syria or Iran become actively involved, retired 4-star general says
"The US announced on Sunday that it is sending an aircraft carrier strike group, including F-35s and F-16s, to patrol the Eastern Mediterranean and deter all-out war involving Israel's neighbors.
"They're there for more than a show of force or a potential noncombatant evacuation,[...]
[...] if the existence of the State of Israel is at stake, if the Syrian military intervene, if Hezbollah started overwhelming the Israelis, in my judgment, at that point, we would consider actively intervening with air power and naval power," [...]
"I think the deterrence factor is what the Biden administration is after right now. They want to make sure that the Syrian military and Hezbollah don't enter this fray, [...] If they do, it's going to be a lethal threat to the existence of Israel."
US Likely to Wage War in Israel If Syria, Iran Get Involved: Ret. Gen. (businessinsider.com)
And now today Hezbollah has apparently opened the northern front with a ground incursion:
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Despite their call for 'restraint', Russia might well be helping to fund the attacks in order to divert US/EU military assistance to Israel. If China really plans to invade Taiwan relatively soon---which I think very unlikely---they could be providing funding as well.
If Trump returns to power then after solidifying his authoritarian regime he could probably be persuaded to allow China to invade Taiwan without substantial military resistance or reprisal. They're both authoritarian allies of Putin, China would happily pay Trump off, and Trump could semi-legitimately claim that he 'kept us out of World War III'.
Trump might then invade Mexico though---or at least bomb it. The EU etc. would be hard pressed to fund the Mexican defense (not sure they would even without other conflicts going on), Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel simultaneously, or try to impose sanctions against the United States and China at the same time....
This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 October 2023 - 02:19 PM