[Kessobahn]

Count the votes from D3 Fanderay, because what you're saying is not true. I couldn't have gotten the lynch because it was L-2. Before end of D3 I said that I want a Togg lynch but am willing to hammer Merrid. Then I actually waited till 3 AM local time, but no one contributed the L-1 vote. What was I supposed to do, vote twice?

Kadagar's arguments for lynching Merrid were shit, which I have already explained on D3. Of course it makes perfect sense now, because if Kadagar is a Finder or something similar, they knew Merrid's identity so they just wanted a case on them no matter what. I obviously didn't know about that, so I jumped at them for making a weaksauce case.

What makes me still super wary of Kadagar is that he jumped at Merrid and did the reveal only after his vote against Togg. This leads me to believe that Kadagar and Togg are members of a third faction, unrevealed as of yet. Why not team School? Because I assume Buffy is a vig on the School faction. From the fact the we just had two NKs and none before, I guess a Guard is involved as well. From the death ratio, School is (or was?) probably the faction with highest number. So having a large faction with a Vig, a Guard, and a Finder? That's an overkill. Hence I think our Finder is of a faction that has not been CFd as of yet. Which also happens to give them an edge, which is reason enough to lynch one of them.

Now the question for me is only whether it should be Kadagar, the obvious one because of D3's reveal, or Togg, whom Kadagar was symping. Logic tells me Togg so that's how I'll vote for now, but okay with going after each of them.

That said, I'm getting a bit of a tunnel vision here. So if I'm alive in a few hours, after I come back form work, I want to take a closer look at a couple of people that have not been examined yet. Will start with Korlat and Emurlahn.

vote Togg

[Fanderay]

You're right in that Merrid was L-2, I was mistaken with the count there.

Remove Vote

I am still suspicious as to why you didn't vote as you had ample opportunity, I saw that you mentioned you will hammer but there was no point leaving your vote on Togg at that stage and no way in which we can verify you staying up until 3am just to hammer, when you could easily have laid a vote and went to bed/sleep.

[Kadagar Fant]

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 09:47 AM, said:

Count the votes from D3 Fanderay, because what you're saying is not true. I couldn't have gotten the lynch because it was L-2. Before end of D3 I said that I want a Togg lynch but am willing to hammer Merrid. Then I actually waited till 3 AM local time, but no one contributed the L-1 vote. What was I supposed to do, vote twice?

Kadagar's arguments for lynching Merrid were shit, which I have already explained on D3. Of course it makes perfect sense now, because if Kadagar is a Finder or something similar, they knew Merrid's identity so they just wanted a case on them no matter what. I obviously didn't know about that, so I jumped at them for making a weaksauce case.

What makes me still super wary of Kadagar is that he jumped at Merrid and did the reveal only after his vote against Togg. This leads me to believe that Kadagar and Togg are members of a third faction, unrevealed as of yet. Why not team School? Because I assume Buffy is a vig on the School faction. From the fact the we just had two NKs and none before, I guess a Guard is involved as well. From the death ratio, School is (or was?) probably the faction with highest number. So having a large faction with a Vig, a Guard, and a Finder? That's an overkill. Hence I think our Finder is of a faction that has not been CFd as of yet. Which also happens to give them an edge, which is reason enough to lynch one of them.

Now the question for me is only whether it should be Kadagar, the obvious one because of D3's reveal, or Togg, whom Kadagar was symping. Logic tells me Togg so that's how I'll vote for now, but okay with going after each of them.

That said, I'm getting a bit of a tunnel vision here. So if I'm alive in a few hours, after I come back form work, I want to take a closer look at a couple of people that have not been examined yet. Will start with Korlat and Emurlahn.

vote Togg

See, Kesso, I was willing to give you a pass, but you bring up the one thing that makes me super suspicious about you, yet again. See the italicized, underlined bit in your post.

Path-Shaper, on 02 July 2016 - 01:17 AM, said:

There was no lynch.

It is Day 3. TIMEOUT

12 players still alive: (Demelain,Denul,Fanderay,Aparal Forge,Korlat,Merrid,Kessobahn,Emurlahn,Telas,Shadow,Togg,Kadagar Fant,Olar Ethil)

7 votes to lynch. 7 votes to go night.

3 votes Togg (Korlat, Merrid, Kessobahn)

5 votes Merrid (Togg, Kadagar Fant, Fanderay, Olar Ethil, Emurlahn)



Players not voted: (Denul, Aparal Forge, Telas,Shadow)

It is now night.

The issue here is that you only wanted to hammer Merrid, not apply the L-1 - on a revealed vampire (a reveal you then did not contest, and neither do you now).
Why did you have this very specific wish to apply only the very last vote on them, some sort of power that triggers on hammering? But then, you had no issues with voting Togg first.

For what it is worth: I did not do the identity reveal on Merrid in order to save Togg. My initial case already included 'I name thee a vampire', which in my mind, was hint enough that I was fabricating a case based on alignment, not on actual content of the case.
That was clearly not enough as people were not moving onto Merrid at all. Yet a lynch on Merrid would have prevented them from submitting a night action, which in turn might or might not have prevented a vampire recruitment. So, when there was no movement vote-wise, I decided a handful of hours before the deadline to take the next step to secure a lynch on Merrid (aka naming his alignment and role name).
You stalling on this was very unfortunate, and does cast suspicion on you trying to keep Merrid alive.

[Olar Ethil]

While Kesso is correct that their vote would not have resulted in a lynch, it was still a strange thing to do to not vote at all on someone whom another had claimed as a vampire. That needed to be tested, which means placing your vote on them, no matter where in the lynch train your vote might come. Kesso did not have to hang around to wait to do that. In fact, hanging around to see where the train goes is if anything more suspicious. So you don't put the vote down that contributes to a lynch, but you wait and wait to see if it gets to L-1, so that you will hammer to seem part of the crowd that wants a Merrid lynch?

[Shadow]

Frankly that kind of postponement is rather stupid. If you thought Merrid should be lynched why didn't you vote? Maybe your vote could have brought in a fence sitter for the hammer

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 36 hours 00 minutes remain.

10 players still alive: (Denul,Fanderay,Korlat,Kessobahn,Emurlahn,Telas,Shadow,Togg,Kadagar Fant,Olar Ethil)

6 votes to lynch. 6 votes to go night.

1 vote Togg (Kessobahn)

Players not voted: ((Denul,Fanderay,Korlat,Emurlahn,Telas,Shadow,Togg,Kadagar Fant,Olar Ethil)

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 05 July 2016 - 01:00 PM

[Togg]

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 09:47 AM, said:

Count the votes from D3 Fanderay, because what you're saying is not true. I couldn't have gotten the lynch because it was L-2. Before end of D3 I said that I want a Togg lynch but am willing to hammer Merrid. Then I actually waited till 3 AM local time, but no one contributed the L-1 vote. What was I supposed to do, vote twice?

Kadagar's arguments for lynching Merrid were shit, which I have already explained on D3. Of course it makes perfect sense now, because if Kadagar is a Finder or something similar, they knew Merrid's identity so they just wanted a case on them no matter what. I obviously didn't know about that, so I jumped at them for making a weaksauce case.

What makes me still super wary of Kadagar is that he jumped at Merrid and did the reveal only after his vote against Togg. This leads me to believe that Kadagar and Togg are members of a third faction, unrevealed as of yet. Why not team School? Because I assume Buffy is a vig on the School faction. From the fact the we just had two NKs and none before, I guess a Guard is involved as well. From the death ratio, School is (or was?) probably the faction with highest number. So having a large faction with a Vig, a Guard, and a Finder? That's an overkill. Hence I think our Finder is of a faction that has not been CFd as of yet. Which also happens to give them an edge, which is reason enough to lynch one of them.

Now the question for me is only whether it should be Kadagar, the obvious one because of D3's reveal, or Togg, whom Kadagar was symping. Logic tells me Togg so that's how I'll vote for now, but okay with going after each of them.

That said, I'm getting a bit of a tunnel vision here. So if I'm alive in a few hours, after I come back form work, I want to take a closer look at a couple of people that have not been examined yet. Will start with Korlat and Emurlahn.

vote Togg

Are you claiming you prefered waiting till 3AM over laying a vote and going to bed?

[Telas]

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 09:47 AM, said:

Count the votes from D3 Fanderay, because what you're saying is not true. I couldn't have gotten the lynch because it was L-2. Before end of D3 I said that I want a Togg lynch but am willing to hammer Merrid. Then I actually waited till 3 AM local time, but no one contributed the L-1 vote. What was I supposed to do, vote twice?

Kadagar's arguments for lynching Merrid were shit, which I have already explained on D3. Of course it makes perfect sense now, because if Kadagar is a Finder or something similar, they knew Merrid's identity so they just wanted a case on them no matter what. I obviously didn't know about that, so I jumped at them for making a weaksauce case.

What makes me still super wary of Kadagar is that he jumped at Merrid and did the reveal only after his vote against Togg. This leads me to believe that Kadagar and Togg are members of a third faction, unrevealed as of yet. Why not team School? Because I assume Buffy is a vig on the School faction. From the fact the we just had two NKs and none before, I guess a Guard is involved as well. From the death ratio, School is (or was?) probably the faction with highest number. So having a large faction with a Vig, a Guard, and a Finder? That's an overkill. Hence I think our Finder is of a faction that has not been CFd as of yet. Which also happens to give them an edge, which is reason enough to lynch one of them.

Now the question for me is only whether it should be Kadagar, the obvious one because of D3's reveal, or Togg, whom Kadagar was symping. Logic tells me Togg so that's how I'll vote for now, but okay with going after each of them.

That said, I'm getting a bit of a tunnel vision here. So if I'm alive in a few hours, after I come back form work, I want to take a closer look at a couple of people that have not been examined yet. Will start with Korlat and Emurlahn.

vote Togg

You are engaging in a lot of speculation to cover for a fairly weak excuse.

I'm fairly convinces that School started out with smth like 8 players (because we had 3 Student CFs, and Xander and Willow are still not accounted for. Plus Buffy and probably Giles. Which leaves smth like 6 bads- 2 3-man factions, or maybe 3 2-man factions, or some one-off roles, who knows.

It's entirely possible for the student faction (from here on, "town" for simplicity's sake) to have a few power roles, but ones that only work against the bads.

You are trying hard to paint Togg as an important role. There's about equal chance of him being either a town role or a 3rd party (uber-distancing argument notwithstanding, he's probably not a vamp in my books). This makes you quite likely not a student. I'd feel pretty comfortable testing your CF.

[Kessobahn]

Back from work, will get to replying and investigating in a few minutes.

[Telas]

Also everyone seems to really like the idea of a guard. But this is one of those roles that's virtually impossible to prove existence of. Just like Healer, Guard is either smth PS tell you in the set-up, or they end up revealing. Trying to guess set up by presence/lack of NKs is like treasure-hunting in sewage: on rare occasions, you stumble onto smth valuable, but 95% of the time, you're just full of shit.

[Kessobahn]

Okay, so first about the thing several people hold against me: not voting Merrid at the end of D3. I was lurking and ready to hammer but there was nothing to hammer, so I didn’t. There’s no grand scheme to that, really. I might have left my vote and just head to sleep and considering how little time there was left, I admit it would have probably been a smarter thing to. But still, 6 out of 11 people (I’m obviously not counting Merrid here) did NOT vote to lynch Merrid. If you want me to take the fall for this, there’s a little I can do to stop you, but where’s logic in that?

On the other hand, I still believe the case against Togg was (and still is) better than insta-killing Merrid. We already knew Merrid’s identity from Kadagar’s reveal. We don’t know if Merrid had any powers, but here’s the reveal and then the CF:

Kadagar Fant, on 01 July 2016 - 07:30 PM, said:

The one problem I have with you, is that you are Darla, the vampire, sire of Angel (him of the stand-alone series), and therefore, I don't by anything whatsoever you say.

Path-Shaper, on 02 July 2016 - 01:21 AM, said:

Buffy: I didn't say I'd never slay another vampire. It's not like I have all these fluffy bunny feelings for them, I'm just not gonna get way extracurricular with it.


Merrid has been killed. She was a vampire named Darla, played by EmperorMagus.

The sire of Angel might indicate a paired killer. But if my theory about there being a Guard is correct, then even if Merrid indeed had any powers, Guard could have blocked them, essentially rendering Merrid useless to his faction. So had we lynched Togg we would have either confirmed or disproven my claim that they are from a yet un-CF’d faction and Merrid would still be an easy target for D4. Good news for School. Instead someone NK’d Merrid and we essentially know as much as we did, except that we have one townie less, because someone also NK’d Aparal.

And yeah, we benefit from killing a vampire, so Merrid going down isn’t a bad outcome. But I think it could have been much better, because after Kadagar’s reveal, Merrid was a dead man anyway. And we arrive in D4 without ever confirming anyone from another faction, which puts them at a HUGE advantage.

Now, moving to my case against Togg. And to be honest, it’s more a case against Kadagar: I admit up to this moment, Togg’s involvement was speculative, based on Kadagar’s timing (the reveal after two votes landed on Togg). But after coming back from work I’ve done some more careful reading and here’s something that convinced me my hunch was right:

Togg, on 04 July 2016 - 12:00 PM, said:

But since you're here

What's your thoughts on Korlat?

I find them suspucious because they had voted me along with Vampire and Kess who is likely vampire too with their "I'd still rather lycnh Togg" attitude

Also this is the reason provided with their vote

I hardly initiated/tried to initiate discussion with my post about recruiter, Kess tried that a little before me, but I get the vote

Korlat, on 30 June 2016 - 02:43 PM, said:

I have always preferred the person-who-smelt-it-dealt-it approach to this game, people having the unresistable urge to discuss their roles.

Vote Togg

I also wonder if as a witch Vengy did have a role? Maybe empowering/protecting others?

Also, the irony is strong with this one

This was posted while still in a freeze. Nice job Togg, with leading the discussion to Korlat and me, before the game unfrozen. It seems to have worked in your favor. I’ll let the others decide if that’s proof enough, but I don’t have any more doubts.

And Kadagar:

Kadagar Fant, on 05 July 2016 - 11:14 AM, said:

The issue here is that you only wanted to hammer Merrid, not apply the L-1 - on a revealed vampire (a reveal you then did not contest, and neither do you now).
Why did you have this very specific wish to apply only the very last vote on them, some sort of power that triggers on hammering? But then, you had no issues with voting Togg first.

For what it is worth: I did not do the identity reveal on Merrid in order to save Togg. My initial case already included 'I name thee a vampire', which in my mind, was hint enough that I was fabricating a case based on alignment, not on actual content of the case.
That was clearly not enough as people were not moving onto Merrid at all. Yet a lynch on Merrid would have prevented them from submitting a night action, which in turn might or might not have prevented a vampire recruitment. So, when there was no movement vote-wise, I decided a handful of hours before the deadline to take the next step to secure a lynch on Merrid (aka naming his alignment and role name).
You stalling on this was very unfortunate, and does cast suspicion on you trying to keep Merrid alive.

As I explained above, with the reveal already done I think we would have benefitted more from killing Merrid a day later and trying to confirm the third faction first. My mistake was being naive enough to believe there’s any chance to still land a lynch on Togg. But you know what they say about hindsight.

Anyway, what’s interesting about your post is that you act like you’re analyzing my behavior but you don’t give a single mention about my theory of you belonging to a third faction. Care to share your ideas on the setup?

And finally, Korlat and Emurlahn, two players I wanted to give a closer look.

Korlat has been pretty much non-existent in this game. It’s D4 and we’ve only seen three posts from them: D1’s banter, Anomandaris vote, and Togg vote based on the person-who-smelt-it-dealt-it idea that Merrid tried to run with. And this is a huge warning sign. I’m very suspicious of a low-poster sharing a target with a confirmed vampire. Especially after their alleged reason was disproven pretty quickly (as much as I want them lynched, Togg was not the first to mention recruiting).

There’s more content for Emurlahn. With the 3rd vote on Anomandaris, they pretty much kicked off the train but it was so early in the game I wouldn’t read into it too much. But then we have something interesting:

Emurlahn, on 29 June 2016 - 08:51 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 29 June 2016 - 07:42 AM, said:

Demelain, on 29 June 2016 - 04:54 AM, said:

Telas, on 28 June 2016 - 11:18 PM, said:

Demelain, on 28 June 2016 - 10:11 PM, said:

Looks like my calling worked.
remove vote
vote Anomandaris
As we probably won't get another kill.

slipping much?

Yeah, wanted to say lynch.

Telas, on 28 June 2016 - 11:23 PM, said:

Incidentally, ima be the downer who reminds everyone that in a FACTION game, voting is only the right thing to do when you're SURE the person being voted is not in your team. Which makes Demelain's eagerness seem.... odd.

Day 1? We have to start with something.

Slippy McSlipperson...

Vote Demelain

It's almost like Demelain knew there'd be no kill isn't it. For the moment I'm inclined to vote that way but am going to see how day develops before taking it any further.

Anyone want to speculate as to why there was no NK?

As obvious a target as Demelain was, you need to really work your imagination to read from that posts that Dem was speculating no NK. So here’s a red flag. Then there’s commentary about people reading too much into the fluff posts from PS (but are they?). Then Emurlahn boards the Dem train, next they vote me because of my mention of recruiting, and finally jump to Merrid train. All of the votes actually have some merit.

Tl;dr
I’m convinced Kadagar and Togg are from a third faction but it doesn’t look like there’s much interest in taking them down. So I want to bring heat to a low-poster who made a bullshit case that Merrid, a confirmed vampire followe. Inb4 someone brings up me jumping on the same train: sure, but my vote was based on a completely different case.

remove vote

vote Korlat

[Telas]

You don't have a "theory" about a guard. You are pulling one out of your ass w/o a shred of proof beyond no-one dying on Nights 1 and 2.

Also, the "lurking instead of placing L-1"... lookit, you're not helping your case.

Angel should not be paired with Darla- because he starts the series being Buffy's "ally" and potential love interest. So there's that, too.

I'd be just as interested in confirming there's a 2nd non-School faction, but right now you're most likely vamp we got, and you've gotta go before you start biting or killing people.

[Shadow]

A Bird in Hand is worth Two in the bush. We know Kesso held off voting on a confirmed Vampire. That reason seems good enough for me

[Togg]

I fail to even follow your logic throughout

are you trying to distance yourself now Kess?

[Kessobahn]

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 05:38 PM, said:

You don't have a "theory" about a guard. You are pulling one out of your ass w/o a shred of proof beyond no-one dying on Nights 1 and 2.

The only alternative I see is recruiter alternating between kill and recruit. But then there's Occam's Razor.

Shadow, on 05 July 2016 - 05:57 PM, said:

A Bird in Hand is worth Two in the bush. We know Kesso held off voting on a confirmed Vampire. That reason seems good enough for me

I already explained that. I see minor danger in a confirmed vampire precisely because they're confirmed. I see major danger in a 3rd faction without any confirmed loss on D4. But if you're planning on lynching me, at least have the decency of examining Aparal's connections and low-posting players. Because after you lynch me, School will start D5 with from an worse position, without any additional piece of information. Here it is, I cannot make it any more blunt. Up to you what you do with that piece of information.

Also, kudos Kadagar and Togg. Stellar job at directing the thread.

Togg, on 05 July 2016 - 06:11 PM, said:

I fail to even follow your logic throughout

are you trying to distance yourself now Kess?

What would I be distancing myself from?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 30 hours 00 minutes remain.

10 players still alive: (Denul,Fanderay,Korlat,Kessobahn,Emurlahn,Telas,Shadow,Togg,Kadagar Fant,Olar Ethil)

6 votes to lynch. 6 votes to go night.

1 vote Korlat (Kessobahn)

Players not voted: (Denul,Fanderay,Korlat,Emurlahn,Telas,Shadow,Togg,Kadagar Fant,Olar Ethil)

[Togg]

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 06:52 PM, said:

Also, kudos Kadagar and Togg. Stellar job at directing the thread.

This again?

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 05:17 PM, said:

Togg, on 04 July 2016 - 12:00 PM, said:

But since you're here

What's your thoughts on Korlat?

I find them suspucious because they had voted me along with Vampire and Kess who is likely vampire too with their "I'd still rather lycnh Togg" attitude

Also this is the reason provided with their vote

I hardly initiated/tried to initiate discussion with my post about recruiter, Kess tried that a little before me, but I get the vote

Korlat, on 30 June 2016 - 02:43 PM, said:

I have always preferred the person-who-smelt-it-dealt-it approach to this game, people having the unresistable urge to discuss their roles.

Vote Togg

I also wonder if as a witch Vengy did have a role? Maybe empowering/protecting others?

Also, the irony is strong with this one

This was posted while still in a freeze. Nice job Togg, with leading the discussion to Korlat and me, before the game unfrozen. It seems to have worked in your favor. I’ll let the others decide if that’s proof enough, but I don’t have any more doubts.

I think you're the only one who spared more than one line to comment on this matter

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 06:52 PM, said:

What would I be distancing myself from?

Korlat obviously

not like that it'd matter today

[Telas]

Okay, here's your "possible alternatives":

1) there's a guard
2) there's a healer
3) there are players with BPs and the killers are real unlucky
4) a killer submitted a prov on someone who got lynched.
5) a killer missed a prov
6) the big bad might be recruiting OR killing.

I'm not even going into the more exotic scenarios of "a killer may only start killing once X number of days passed", or smth similar.

You are basing your assumptions on WIFOM, you call it "Occam's Razor", and you lead us absolutely nowhere with it.

[Kessobahn]

Togg, on 05 July 2016 - 07:06 PM, said:

I think you're the only one who spared more than one line to comment on this matter

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 06:52 PM, said:

What would I be distancing myself from?

Korlat obviously

not like that it'd matter today

What are you even babbling about right now. Korlat wrote three posts so far. What is there to distance from?

Telas:
2 is essentially a less likely version of 1 (because when Guarding, you need to be correct once, to Heal on two nights, you need to be correct twice). 3: I don't know what's BP. I reject 4 and 5 because assumptions like that will never get you anywhere. 6 I already mentioned as a possibility.

[Telas]

BP is bulletproof.

I will argue till my face is blue that 4 and 5 are just as valid as 1 and 2. With the added bonus of not creating a (potentially) false sense of security in that there's a guard/healer looking out for us somewhere. Sure, I can't account for a killer not being around to change a prov, but neither should I ever assume there's a guard/healer out there- because that's not WCS (worst-case-scenario) thinking. And all your assumptions should always be based on WCS-it's best way to avoid pitfalls of "wishful thinking"

That is to say, stop trying to convince everyone that there's a guard, unless you know something the rest of us don't. Because I (and anyone else who reads your posts) can't help but see your faulty starting logic. And that immediately undermines any validity your argument may have had.