[Kessobahn]

I would be inclined to agree after one Night with no NK. But after two nights with no kill, it is a real longshot to think someone fucked up with a prov twice in a row. So no, 4 and 5 are nowhere near as valid as 1 and 2.

But indeed I did not think about bulletproof characters, so point taken there. This would actually make some sense in regards to Aparal's NK, since he didn't really participate all that much except boarding the Ano train and speculating about factions based on Buffy lore. I re-read Aparal's posts and cannot really find a reason as to why someone would target him. Even if he guessed something about other faction(s) right, there's nothing to prove that, so maybe the killer was just targeting someone unlikely to have any sort of protection. Sounds like a longshot, but do not have a better idea right now.

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 07:59 PM, said:

That is to say, stop trying to convince everyone that there's a guard, unless you know something the rest of us don't. Because I (and anyone else who reads your posts) can't help but see your faulty starting logic. And that immediately undermines any validity your argument may have had.

Existence of a Guard is an assumption I made based on facts and guesstimates and much of my play since D3 was based on that assumptions. I don't claim it has to be right, I claim it's the most probable based on what we've seen so far. Getting tired of explaining that.

[Denul]

I have read through the last day three times. Kesso your back pedaling though epic and grand, is just back pedaling. I was not able to be around for the reveal or end of day, or I would have voted. You were here for both. You have no acceptable excuses.

Vote Kesso.

You may now commence the mud flinging at me Kesso.

[Telas]

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 09:05 PM, said:

I would be inclined to agree after one Night with no NK. But after two nights with no kill, it is a real longshot to think someone fucked up with a prov twice in a row. So no, 4 and 5 are nowhere near as valid as 1 and 2.

But indeed I did not think about bulletproof characters, so point taken there. This would actually make some sense in regards to Aparal's NK, since he didn't really participate all that much except boarding the Ano train and speculating about factions based on Buffy lore. I re-read Aparal's posts and cannot really find a reason as to why someone would target him. Even if he guessed something about other faction(s) right, there's nothing to prove that, so maybe the killer was just targeting someone unlikely to have any sort of protection. Sounds like a longshot, but do not have a better idea right now.

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 07:59 PM, said:

That is to say, stop trying to convince everyone that there's a guard, unless you know something the rest of us don't. Because I (and anyone else who reads your posts) can't help but see your faulty starting logic. And that immediately undermines any validity your argument may have had.

Existence of a Guard is an assumption I made based on facts and guesstimates and much of my play since D3 was based on that assumptions. I don't claim it has to be right, I claim it's the most probable based on what we've seen so far. Getting tired of explaining that.

My reply to that remains the same. You are basing your reasoning on a possible, but not provable assumption- one that makes you think School has an advantage in a form of a guard. A belief that can easily come back and bite you in the behind.

As long as your assumptions are based on there being a guard, your entire argument is fundamentally flawed. Which is precisely why so many people are likely to tune out of it.

Anyways, I'm getting tired of repeating myself. Really messed up day @ work (nothing really bad, just a disturbance to the schedule that's left me a bit out of it), so I'm heading home. I'd like to see more from Shadow, Korlat, Emu and Denul, cause they are being really quiet. Also Fandy was all dead-set on lynching you, but now not? Since he's one of the least likely vamps in my book, i'd like to hear where he thinks we should be looking besides you.

[Telas]

Xpost with Denul. Lmao.

Okay, now leaving fo realz.

[Kessobahn]

Denul, on 05 July 2016 - 09:22 PM, said:

I have read through the last day three times. Kesso your back pedaling though epic and grand, is just back pedaling. I was not able to be around for the reveal or end of day, or I would have voted.

Oh poor you, you would have saved the day but just happened to not be there on time. Such a shame.

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 09:24 PM, said:

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 09:05 PM, said:

I would be inclined to agree after one Night with no NK. But after two nights with no kill, it is a real longshot to think someone fucked up with a prov twice in a row. So no, 4 and 5 are nowhere near as valid as 1 and 2.

But indeed I did not think about bulletproof characters, so point taken there. This would actually make some sense in regards to Aparal's NK, since he didn't really participate all that much except boarding the Ano train and speculating about factions based on Buffy lore. I re-read Aparal's posts and cannot really find a reason as to why someone would target him. Even if he guessed something about other faction(s) right, there's nothing to prove that, so maybe the killer was just targeting someone unlikely to have any sort of protection. Sounds like a longshot, but do not have a better idea right now.

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 07:59 PM, said:

That is to say, stop trying to convince everyone that there's a guard, unless you know something the rest of us don't. Because I (and anyone else who reads your posts) can't help but see your faulty starting logic. And that immediately undermines any validity your argument may have had.

Existence of a Guard is an assumption I made based on facts and guesstimates and much of my play since D3 was based on that assumptions. I don't claim it has to be right, I claim it's the most probable based on what we've seen so far. Getting tired of explaining that.

My reply to that remains the same. You are basing your reasoning on a possible, but not provable assumption- one that makes you think School has an advantage in a form of a guard. A belief that can easily come back and bite you in the behind.

It's Mafia. You make assumptions, you test them, you move forward. How else would you like to play it?

Okay, I'm tired of repeating the same stuff over and over again, so here it goes, one last time. You're fixated on me not voting on D3 Merrid. My play here has been consistent. I think Togg and Kadagar are in a third faction and I believe confirming that would have benefited School more than immediately lynching a revealed vampire, because we would have gotten Merrid next day anyway. My mistake was believing very late in D3 that it's still possible to nail Togg. No excuse here, never even tried to make one. But how does this make me a more likely vampire than 5 other people who did not vote on Merrid is beyond me. Kadagar made their reveal like what, 6 hours before the freeze? Hardly a last minute call. Poor souls, I'm sure they were there ready to nail the revealed vampire like the true heroes they are but something just happened to stop them right before placing their votes.

If you think that frames me as a likely vampire, no more rephrasing of my point will convince you, so that's it. But at least show enough reason to investigate the low posters and possible Aparal's conenctions before you seal it for the third faction or the vampires.

Going to bed, see you tomorrow or soon enough in the spoiler thread =)

[Olar Ethil]

How did the idea of a third faction originate? What makes you think that?

[Olar Ethil]

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

[Telas]

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

[Olar Ethil]

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

Right, but what's the specific evidence for Togg or Kadagar or whoever else being in a third faction, and not one of the two confirmed factions? I'm asking because it feels like there's been a step in the thinking process missed along the way.

Edit: Changed Korlat to Kadagar.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 06 July 2016 - 03:35 AM

[Telas]

Olar Ethil, on 06 July 2016 - 01:03 AM, said:

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

Right, but what's the specific evidence for Togg or Kadagar or whoever else being in a third faction, and not one of the two confirmed factions? I'm asking because it feels like there's been a step in the thinking process missed along the way.

Edit: Changed Korlat to Kadagar.

That's precisely what I've been hammering Kesso on. His entire argument is that KF and Togg are power roles, and can't be School, because "largest faction with power roles is too OP"

I can see the possible logic, but I'm not convinced of the existence of this "Pro-School Guard" that Kesso is hinging all his assumptions on. As such, I'm not convinced that KF and Togg are not School power roles. And I'm not willing to risk them at this juncture.

[Shadow]

Y'know what with the poor logic on holding off voting and apparently not knowing about BP Kesso seems to be making a case that he is new and we should be excusing his sloppy gameplay...

If this is true, this is the second time school has had someone messing up onthread, or its a ploy.

Still trying to decide on this

[Kadagar Fant]

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 05:17 PM, said:

Okay, so first about the thing several people hold against me: not voting Merrid at the end of D3. I was lurking and ready to hammer but there was nothing to hammer, so I didn’t. There’s no grand scheme to that, really. I might have left my vote and just head to sleep and considering how little time there was left, I admit it would have probably been a smarter thing to. But still, 6 out of 11 people (I’m obviously not counting Merrid here) did NOT vote to lynch Merrid. If you want me to take the fall for this, there’s a little I can do to stop you, but where’s logic in that?

On the other hand, I still believe the case against Togg was (and still is) better than insta-killing Merrid. We already knew Merrid’s identity from Kadagar’s reveal.

<snip>

Quote

As I explained above, with the reveal already done I think we would have benefitted more from killing Merrid a day later and trying to confirm the third faction first. My mistake was being naive enough to believe there’s any chance to still land a lynch on Togg. But you know what they say about hindsight.

Anyway, what’s interesting about your post is that you act like you’re analyzing my behavior but you don’t give a single mention about my theory of you belonging to a third faction. Care to share your ideas on the setup?



Tl;dr
I’m convinced Kadagar and Togg are from a third faction but it doesn’t look like there’s much interest in taking them down. So I want to bring heat to a low-poster who made a bullshit case that Merrid, a confirmed vampire followe. Inb4 someone brings up me jumping on the same train: sure, but my vote was based on a completely different case.

remove vote

vote Korlat

The only reason we could live a vampire alive, is if there 100% surely is a guard. I am not going to gamble on that, especially not in a game in which reveals are forbidden and in which recruitment is a likely feature. Apparently, you were willing to, despite the theories of vampires being recruiters, I might add. With regard to there being nothing to hammer - how many people voted for Togg after Merrid was outed as Darla?

As for factions:
Going by what Bliss posted so far (the quotes were all season 1, episode 1, apparently there's a club scene in that episode, too), we are playing season 1, and starting at episode 1.

I already speculated on the composition of the town faction. I believe they include Buffy, Willow and Xander, with Buffy probably being a vig and the other two perhaps also having some role of sorts.
Then, there is a vamp faction (Darla, Luke, The Master are all named as appearing in episode 1, 3 in 15 makes sense for a starting scum faction, too).
I'd say Angel is probably initially a third faction, with the possibility of joining either the humans or the vampires, depending on who finds him first, Buffy or the Master.

Since there is no proof of anything not Student or Vampire in this game, I am not going to speculate on there being any demons or some such.
This set-up has been floated before by Aparal Forge, incidentally another Student who ended up being dead.

[Emurlahn]

Path-Shaper, on 02 July 2016 - 01:21 AM, said:

Buffy: I didn't say I'd never slay another vampire. It's not like I have all these fluffy bunny feelings for them, I'm just not gonna get way extracurricular with it.


Merrid has been killed. She was a vampire named Darla, played by EmperorMagus.

Telas, on 04 July 2016 - 10:50 PM, said:

Okay, after running around most of the day, I gots me some free time. Not home, mind, so playing off my phone and so no quotes unless I go back, and then it'll be single-post quotes only.

Good job to whomever offed Merrid, a powerful named vamp is not good thing to be around.

Now, what I thought was interesting is the "sire of Angel" bit. I'm gonna throw some noob questions (my data cap for the month is almost dead. Only thing I'm using it for is mafiaz, which is why I can't just go and wiki stuff myself).

Angel in what little of Season 1 that I saw was Buffy's "other" mentor- Giles was the official teacher, while Angel was the tall, dark and handsome, who dropped by to give hints and tips, and occasionally lend a helping hand. And it's discovered fairly early on he's a vamp, but a "good" one, in that he wants other vamps dead. I didn't ever see the spinoff, but also assuming he was a good guy/demon there.

So now, the question becomes: was he a good guy in this set up (if he is a part of it)? Would he have known who Darla was? I'm trying to wrap my head around the mafia mechanics in this scenario.

Those are just thoughts out loud. I'm also gonna look why AF may have been a target, and where to go from here. Fanderay, KF and Togg seem to be pretty clearly anti-vamp, whether students or smth else. So I'm inclined to see who was poking them for now.

Luckily I peeked in on thread over the weekend. I note that the CF has been edited to remove "sire of Angel" by PS. For those who watched, Angel and not Angelus is very indicative of the alignment of that character and that the character is present in game.

For those that didn't: Liam was bitten in Ireland a while back and took the name Angelus from what his little sister thought he was when he returned to visit (and eat) his family after having been dead & buried. Also the distant past he ate a load of gypsies which narked them off. In revenge they cursed him to have his soul back to his undead vampire body which also returned conscience etc. Changed his name to Angel as a gesture of hos he has changed. Said soul curse is lifted when Angel has a moment of "pure happiness." Angel has such a "moment" with Buffy late in Series 2, shedding his soul and becoming evil again. Of course as you'd expect, over the next few series he gets his soul back, gets killed by Buffy, returns from hell, gets his own series. You know, the usual stuff.

In game terms he's either with the Scoobies or has non-conflicting VCs and is unlikely to know what alt she was in because he's not on Team Bad this series.


In other posts, I see that Kessobahn is flailing madly and making some curious defences for not voting for Merrid. What occurs to me here is that anyone on a team knows that it is likely they'll have to throw someone under the bus or at least look like they're willing to in order to distract attention from themselves. Kesso has failed utterly to do this leaving me wondering if he actually wanted the no-lynch. Is there precedent for someone with a role only getting a kill if there is no lynch? Either that or he's part of a 3rd faction that gains from no-lynch.

Furthermore, the insistence on the role of a Guard being in game is likely indicative of off-thread knowledge. Someone been guarding you Kessobahn?

Fanderay catches my eye for being so quick to forgive Kesso not putting a vote down in #242.

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 05:17 PM, said:

And yeah, we benefit from killing a vampire, so Merrid going down isn’t a bad outcome. But I think it could have been much better, because after Kadagar’s reveal, Merrid was a dead man anyway. And we arrive in D4 without ever confirming anyone from another faction, which puts them at a HUGE advantage.

Sorry, you seem to be claiming some knowledge of the functioning of the Vampire faction here. Because to those without a vamp PM for all we know every vamp can bite (recruit) therefore once you know who one is you kill them to stop them spreading. Leaving them alive even an extra day is bad. Since you're not thinking that you must have some pretty direct knowledge as to what they can do.

Kessobahn, on 05 July 2016 - 05:17 PM, said:

And finally, Korlat and Emurlahn, two players I wanted to give a closer look.

[...]

There’s more content for Emurlahn. With the 3rd vote on Anomandaris, they pretty much kicked off the train but it was so early in the game I wouldn’t read into it too much. But then we have something interesting:

[...]

Emurlahn, on 29 June 2016 - 08:51 AM, said:

It's almost like Demelain knew there'd be no kill isn't it. For the moment I'm inclined to vote that way but am going to see how day develops before taking it any further.

Anyone want to speculate as to why there was no NK?

As obvious a target as Demelain was, you need to really work your imagination to read from that posts that Dem was speculating no NK. So here’s a red flag. Then there’s commentary about people reading too much into the fluff posts from PS (but are they?). Then Emurlahn boards the Dem train, next they vote me because of my mention of recruiting, and finally jump to Merrid train. All of the votes actually have some merit.

You had me all excited for a moment. That wasn't really that interesting at all.

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

Technically vampires are both demons and forces of darkness...


Vote Kessobahn

[Emurlahn]

Denul, on 05 July 2016 - 09:22 PM, said:

I have read through the last day three times. Kesso your back pedaling though epic and grand, is just back pedaling. I was not able to be around for the reveal or end of day, or I would have voted. You were here for both. You have no acceptable excuses.

Vote Kesso.

You may now commence the mud flinging at me Kesso.

For someone who has read the last day 3 times I was hoping for more form you Denul.

[Kadagar Fant]

Telas, on 06 July 2016 - 03:19 AM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 06 July 2016 - 01:03 AM, said:

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

Right, but what's the specific evidence for Togg or Kadagar or whoever else being in a third faction, and not one of the two confirmed factions? I'm asking because it feels like there's been a step in the thinking process missed along the way.

Edit: Changed Korlat to Kadagar.

That's precisely what I've been hammering Kesso on. His entire argument is that KF and Togg are power roles, and can't be School, because "largest faction with power roles is too OP"

I can see the possible logic, but I'm not convinced of the existence of this "Pro-School Guard" that Kesso is hinging all his assumptions on. As such, I'm not convinced that KF and Togg are not School power roles. And I'm not willing to risk them at this juncture.

Thing is, I can partly follow Kesso's reasoning and I am still willing to give him a pass, for now.
All the more so, since he has been consistent in his theories, so it feels less like trying to pull an escape from scrutiny and more like someone really convinced (The 'didn't see that coming' probably refers to there being no NK twice in a row) that they have stumbled on the money:

Kessobahn, on 30 June 2016 - 01:54 PM, said:

Didn't see that coming. Still at work, so will get a closer look at D2 later on. When it comes to lack of NKs, it's possible a Guard got lucky on N1 and continues blocking the killer. Alternating recruit/kill is also possible, happened in the last game, but what would that leave us with? 2 large factions and a wildcard recruiter/killer?

The issue then becomes: we had 2 NKs on night 3 (Aparal Forge, Student & Merrid, Vampire).
This would only be possible if one of those killers has never tried to kill before, and the guard shifted his target from the person they were guarding who did have a kill, to someone else - perhaps to Merrid?
Also, Merrid is not going to die by his own faction killing them, so it seems safe to assume that either the students have a vig, and/or the third party has a kill - but unless the and/and scenario is true, who killed the Student on night 3?

[Emurlahn]

Whilst I'm around,

Path-Shaper, on 02 July 2016 - 01:23 AM, said:

Aparal Forge is dead. He was Jesse McNally a student at Sunnydale High played by Nicodimas.

Thinking of a potential Mrs Madison in game, can someone who can alt people take a look at AF and see if their posts are consistent with Nicos posting style?

[Kadagar Fant]

Emurlahn, on 06 July 2016 - 07:11 AM, said:

Whilst I'm around,

Path-Shaper, on 02 July 2016 - 01:23 AM, said:

Aparal Forge is dead. He was Jesse McNally a student at Sunnydale High played by Nicodimas.

Thinking of a potential Mrs Madison in game, can someone who can alt people take a look at AF and see if their posts are consistent with Nicos posting style?

There's a block of three posts in a row, starting http://forum.malazan...ost__p__1240214 here.

I'd say it is more or less in line with Nico's usual writing style (big nasty's, student's).

[Fanderay]

Olar Ethil, on 06 July 2016 - 01:03 AM, said:

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

Right, but what's the specific evidence for Togg or Kadagar or whoever else being in a third faction, and not one of the two confirmed factions? I'm asking because it feels like there's been a step in the thinking process missed along the way.

Edit: Changed Korlat to Kadagar.

Just getting caught up. I have read and re read Kesso's "case" on Togg and I think it comes across as some sort of "find". I think Kesso knows that Togg is in a separate faction to him and is trying to get him lynched.

[Fanderay]

Kadagar Fant, on 06 July 2016 - 07:10 AM, said:

Telas, on 06 July 2016 - 03:19 AM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 06 July 2016 - 01:03 AM, said:

Telas, on 05 July 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 05 July 2016 - 11:29 PM, said:

My point with the above question being, is there some kind of evidence for that right now, or does this seem just a distraction?

1) if all we have is vampires and School, it's kinda hard to see it as a "faction" game

2) The OP mentioned "vampires, demons, and forces of darkness"

The rest is conjecture beyond this point.

Right, but what's the specific evidence for Togg or Kadagar or whoever else being in a third faction, and not one of the two confirmed factions? I'm asking because it feels like there's been a step in the thinking process missed along the way.

Edit: Changed Korlat to Kadagar.

That's precisely what I've been hammering Kesso on. His entire argument is that KF and Togg are power roles, and can't be School, because "largest faction with power roles is too OP"

I can see the possible logic, but I'm not convinced of the existence of this "Pro-School Guard" that Kesso is hinging all his assumptions on. As such, I'm not convinced that KF and Togg are not School power roles. And I'm not willing to risk them at this juncture.

Thing is, I can partly follow Kesso's reasoning and I am still willing to give him a pass, for now.
All the more so, since he has been consistent in his theories, so it feels less like trying to pull an escape from scrutiny and more like someone really convinced (The 'didn't see that coming' probably refers to there being no NK twice in a row) that they have stumbled on the money:

Kessobahn, on 30 June 2016 - 01:54 PM, said:

Didn't see that coming. Still at work, so will get a closer look at D2 later on. When it comes to lack of NKs, it's possible a Guard got lucky on N1 and continues blocking the killer. Alternating recruit/kill is also possible, happened in the last game, but what would that leave us with? 2 large factions and a wildcard recruiter/killer?

The issue then becomes: we had 2 NKs on night 3 (Aparal Forge, Student & Merrid, Vampire).
This would only be possible if one of those killers has never tried to kill before, and the guard shifted his target from the person they were guarding who did have a kill, to someone else - perhaps to Merrid?
Also, Merrid is not going to die by his own faction killing them, so it seems safe to assume that either the students have a vig, and/or the third party has a kill - but unless the and/and scenario is true, who killed the Student on night 3?

I am not willing to give Kesso a pass because his CF will tell us a lot. I think he is the best option for a lynch today

[Fanderay]

The thing with Kesso, other than not voting Merrid and wierdly saying that they stayed up until 3am instead of voting, is that they seem like they have extra knowledge and assume we know it too. His talk of guards, a third faction and his vehemence in wanting to vote Togg. I think his CF will tell us a lot more than anyone else's.

Vote Kessobahn

edit to > too

This post has been edited by Fanderay: 06 July 2016 - 08:01 AM