[Maark Abbott]

Tapper, on 05 December 2018 - 07:46 AM, said:

Tiste Simeon, on 05 December 2018 - 07:15 AM, said:

Theresa May has had a terrible day and while I kind of hope this means the Tories don't get into power for a very long time it seems no matter what happens they're going to push forward with this disaster. Even if parliament defeats get proposal next week. "Will of the People" yeah right.

Given Corbyn's clear Brexit sympathies, only details would shift if he'd have to (re)negotiate it.
I do think that Labour is long-term better for the UK, but imho staying in under the Tories would likely still be better than leaving under Labour.

Staying in would just be better in general. It's absolutely unsurprising how the tories have gone from "we will be well mint after Brecksits m8" to refusing to say anything to that effect any more as it's evident that it's always been a fucking lie.

But then no one in their right mind would have believed it anyway.

[Macros]

when is the next general election?

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Yep, let's not pretend that if Labour got in Corbyn would fight for Remain, he's been anti-EU from the start and was entirely wishy-washy throughout the whole referendum saga.

The next one isn't until 2022 I think, unless they call an early one which I don't think they're daft enough to do.

This post has been edited by TheRetiredBridgeburner: 05 December 2018 - 09:06 AM

[EmperorMagus]

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 05 December 2018 - 09:06 AM, said:

Yep, let's not pretend that if Labour got in Corbyn would fight for Remain, he's been anti-EU from the start and was entirely wishy-washy throughout the whole referendum saga.

The next one isn't until 2022 I think, unless they call an early one which I don't think they're daft enough to do.

It's entirely possible that May may (not intended) treat the 'meaningful vote' as a confidence motion. She isn't saying it right now, but if she loses it she may just say fuck it and call an election. Either she wins it and gets enough votes to pass it or she loses and Brexit will be someone else's problem.

Even if May treats the vote as a normal vote, there is no guarantee that the DUP will still side with her after the meaningful vote.

Yes, I am a nerd, I love politics, and I specially love parliamentary politics. Fight me.

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

EmperorMagus, on 05 December 2018 - 09:11 AM, said:

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 05 December 2018 - 09:06 AM, said:

Yep, let's not pretend that if Labour got in Corbyn would fight for Remain, he's been anti-EU from the start and was entirely wishy-washy throughout the whole referendum saga.

The next one isn't until 2022 I think, unless they call an early one which I don't think they're daft enough to do.

It's entirely possible that May may (not intended) treat the 'meaningful vote' as a confidence motion. She isn't saying it right now, but if she loses it she may just say fuck it and call an election. Either she wins it and gets enough votes to pass it or she loses and Brexit will be someone else's problem.

Even if May treats the vote as a normal vote, there is no guarantee that the DUP will still side with her after the meaningful vote.

Yes, I am a nerd, I love politics, and I specially love parliamentary politics. Fight me.

Definitely not going to fight you! It's not an area I'm hugely knowledgeable on so I always like hearing from people more in the know to be honest. I'd forgotten about the DUP - and as I understand it they haven't been happy with the deal at all so the possibility of them going "sod you lady" is definitely there.

We live in interesting times!

This post has been edited by TheRetiredBridgeburner: 05 December 2018 - 09:17 AM

[EmperorMagus]

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 05 December 2018 - 09:16 AM, said:

Definitely not going to fight you! It's not an area I'm hugely knowledgeable on so I always like hearing from people more in the know to be honest. I'd forgotten about the DUP - and as I understand it they haven't been happy with the deal at all so the possibility of them going "sod you lady" is definitely there.

We live in interesting times!

Quite interesting indeed.

I can't wait for the debate on the deal to start. The behind-the-scenes back and forth in the next few days is going to be incredible.

Can May secure enough votes to win?

Can she secure enough votes to make her defeat not a humiliating embarrassment?

Is she going to lose by a margin of more than 100 votes and lose any political capital she might have in the process?

Are the sane people in Parliament strong enough to get another referendum going (cause that's the only hope for staying in the EU)?

Is Corbyn a good enough politician to force May out in the process?

So many questions. So much drama. So much suspense.

[Macros]

problem really is, people are stupid and forget.

Tories will regain enough of their support come 2022 to keep a grip on things.

[Mezla PigDog]

I'm not sure Corbyn would push for Brexit. He knows and publicly acknowledges that his mandate comes from Labour membership, particularly new members who are overwhelmingly Remain. He's devolved some Parliamentary Labour Party decisions to the wider membership and said that the members should dictate policy direction. Members voted in favour of a People's Vote with the option to Remain on the ballot at the last Labour conference. So he'd be a hypocrite to pursue Leave. Apart from the sticking point that large swathes of Labour heartlands voted to Leave.... Assuming May loses the vote on the deal Labour are planning a vote of no confidence in the government which would trigger a General Election but they probably don't have the numbers for it. That then leaves a second referendum as one of the only remaining options to break the stalemate.

This post has been edited by Mezla PigDog: 05 December 2018 - 05:09 PM

[worry]

[Mezla PigDog]

What the Jimminy Cricket is going to happen I wonder.

[Maark Abbott]

One minister who was very vocal about threatening Ireland almost immediately backtracked and bleated about being taken out of context.

Can never trust a Tory.

[stone monkey]

tbh I think that if we were to have a Parliamentary No-Confidence vote, May would actually win it. One should never underestimate the Tories' belief in their Manifest Destiny to rule over the country in perpetuity. Also, they still have the Supply & Confidence agreement with the DUP, who know exacty which side their bread's buttered on.

When May does eventually leave 10 Downing Street, I suspect she'll have to be physically manhandled from the building... and she'll leave claw marks on everything she passes on her way out.

Oh yes. And this appeared to be everywhere today:

This post has been edited by stone monkey: 11 December 2018 - 12:30 AM

[Maark Abbott]

Accurate, to be fair.

The Tories are desperately clinging to power because they know the nation (bar the gammons) are against them now.

[Messremb]

Maark Abbott, on 11 December 2018 - 08:21 AM, said:

Accurate, to be fair.

The Tories are desperately clinging to power because they know the nation (bar the gammons) are against them now.

Unfortunately JC is doing a fantastic job of being completely invisible opposition

[Tiste Simeon]

And now the Tories are blaming Bercow for their own mess. And since the BBC and most of the MSM seem to be pro-Tory that's the story they're going with...

[Maark Abbott]

Tiste Simeon, on 11 December 2018 - 02:07 PM, said:

And now the Tories are blaming Bercow for their own mess. And since the BBC and most of the MSM seem to be pro-Tory that's the story they're going with...

It's not so much that the Beeb and MSM are pro-Tory, it's that they're owned by Tories (or at least those with a substantial financial interest in the Tories).

I'm leaning more and more towards the French having the right idea. You're very likely the wrong person to confide that in all things considered (insert The Bill theme tune here), but surely you've felt undercurrents of it yourself...

[Gorefest]

Well, as if it all wasn't farcical enough, the Tories have suddenly managed to get enough no confidence votes to kick off a leadership contest. That is really what we need right now, Tory infighting and a possible leadership change. All hail Boris Johnson, our new Prime Minister and honorary hobbit.

This post has been edited by Gorefest: 12 December 2018 - 11:33 AM

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

I'm reading the liveblog of PMQs..... some people on here may know better than me (as in whether this is in fact just standard for PMQs) as I don't follow it that often, but I can't help but feel May answering everything about Brexit with "Labour want to ruin the country" is smacking of desperation.

Unless she feels her only chance of winning the vote tonight is to set Labour up as the Antichrist and hope it works.

This post has been edited by TheRetiredBridgeburner: 12 December 2018 - 12:32 PM

[EmperorMagus]

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 12 December 2018 - 12:27 PM, said:

I'm reading the liveblog of PMQs..... some people on here may know better than me (as in whether this is in fact just standard for PMQs) as I don't follow it that often, but I can't help but feel May answering everything about Brexit with "Labour want to ruin the country" is smacking of desperation.

I have watched PMQ a few times (both for the Canadian Parliament and the British House). IMHO, this is normal PMQ behavior. As the popular saying goes, "there is a reason it's called question period, not answer period". The opposition ask questions that are worded just to make the other side look bad, the other side gives "answers" that have nothing to do with the question asked but are meant to look the opposition look bad.

Both sides end up looking like total arses, but at least they're entertaining arses.

This 1921 Committee twist is surprising. There was serious opposition to May's deal among Tory backbenchers, obviously, but I didn't expect them to intentionally blow up their own party. I really can't see anyway for the tories to come out of this vote looking better than they went in.

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

I think we're in "grab popcorn and watch it all burn" territory. Although it seems like a load of the Brexiteer MPs and the Chief Whip just got up and left en masse. It will be interesting to see where we end up later.