[Maark Abbott]

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 05 July 2024 - 07:15 AM, said:

The main positive is the Tories are out. The fact Rees-Mogg and Truss lost their seats is beauitful.

The Reform numbers are scary though - I suspect if they didn't exist Labour would still have won but the majority would have been much, much smaller. The only slim positive I think is that there's no way Farage and Anderson will last without saying or doing something reprehensible and facing recall. Not a chance they can pretend to behave themselves for four years.

The Labour candidate who knocked on our door a couple of months back is now our MP, with a convincing majority. That was nice news to wake up to.

Alistair Campbell made a convert of me last night - planning to go listen to some of he and Rory Stewart's podcast.

Yeah, one step at a time I guess.

I think Reform gaining a foothold is indicative of something we've been able to see coming for a while, and it's the end product of the Tories' endless jabber about 'we don't need experts' coupled with underfunding of education, services et al. Creates an environment where it's much easier to dupe folk into thinking that the country's problems are the result of foreigners and that's exactly what Reform bank on. People in very tenuous positions usually don't have time to think critically on the cause of their suffering and it's much easier to blame it on an external bogeyman.

[Traveller]

My daughter is at high-school, and they had an election to go through the process.

Apparently loads of the vocal kids were for Reform, and thought Farage was the man. Green ended up winning, but it's still worrying to see how popular reform is in a generation that will be voting in a few years time.

[Maark Abbott]

Traveller, on 05 July 2024 - 07:37 AM, said:

My daughter is at high-school, and they had an election to go through the process.

Apparently loads of the vocal kids were for Reform, and thought Farage was the man. Green ended up winning, but it's still worrying to see how popular reform is in a generation that will be voting in a few years time.

I hesitate to say but I can't help but wonder if it's because kids are kind of stupid in many cases. There's a worryingly large number of figures being touted as ones to look up to by the young folk like Andrew Tate. They seem to think that being a shithead is a virtue. As you say, a big concern.

[Mezla PigDog]

Kids and idiots like the simple answers of parties and politicians at the outer ends of the spectrum. Unfortunately it takes a brain to realise that if things were really that simple they would be fixed by now.

I'm going to be hallucinating soon. I think I've had 2 hours sleep. Got a full day of work and a school meeting to get through. Then chippy tea and popping the cork on my bubbly. Then bedtime!

I'm enjoying the Tory collapse. The result was anti-Tory, not pro-Labour. But we've got what we've got and it's better than the previous 14 years. I have my fingers firmly crossed that the prevailing winds and their own neuroses allow them to show what they can do...

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Mezla PigDog, on 05 July 2024 - 07:58 AM, said:

I'm going to be hallucinating soon. I think I've had 2 hours sleep. Got a full day of work and a school meeting to get through. Then chippy tea and popping the cork on my bubbly. Then bedtime!

Ooof, that's a day! Enjoy the well-earned chippy tea and bubbly!

[Tiste Simeon]

Well done for ensuring it Mezla, I got to about midnight and thought that wouldn't have been much surprises and went to sleep.

The other positive is at the beginning of the night they had Reform for 13 seats and they got 4.

So that's something.

Also Sunak resigned so which reprobate will be next I wonder?

TRB - FWIW I read Rory Stewart's book Politics on the Edge and for an ex-Tory he's definitely one of the more thoughtful and admirable ones. I haven't heard the podcast but I imagine it's pretty interesting.

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Tiste Simeon, on 05 July 2024 - 09:54 AM, said:

TRB - FWIW I read Rory Stewart's book Politics on the Edge and for an ex-Tory he's definitely one of the more thoughtful and admirable ones. I haven't heard the podcast but I imagine it's pretty interesting.

That's the second recommendation for his book I've had this week - I'll look it up. Some friends recommended the podcast very highly so I'll let you know if/when I give it a go

Edit: turns out I had credits in my Audible account. Book purchased!

This post has been edited by TheRetiredBridgeburner: 05 July 2024 - 10:38 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

 TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 05 July 2024 - 10:26 AM, said:

 Tiste Simeon, on 05 July 2024 - 09:54 AM, said:

TRB - FWIW I read Rory Stewart's book Politics on the Edge and for an ex-Tory he's definitely one of the more thoughtful and admirable ones. I haven't heard the podcast but I imagine it's pretty interesting.

That's the second recommendation for his book I've had this week - I'll look it up. Some friends recommended the podcast very highly so I'll let you know if/when I give it a go

Edit: turns out I had credits in my Audible account. Book purchased!

You'll be annoyed through most of it I suspect but it's quite the look at the inner workings of the party and government.

[Tapper]

Politico (the .eu version) warns in all its reporting that Farage is sort of a spectre hanging over these elections and potentially 2029 due to the amount of second places Reform collected.

Is this truly worrying, or are a lot of his voters just showing disgruntlement with Sunak and are going to return to the Conservatives once these have elected their own next (batshit crazy) party leader and assembled a shadow cabinet out of whatever remains to them?

This post has been edited by Tapper: 05 July 2024 - 02:00 PM

[Tsundoku]

Mezla PigDog, on 05 July 2024 - 07:58 AM, said:

!I'm enjoying the Tory collapse. The result was anti-Tory, not pro-Labour.

Yarp, even in non-compulsory voting democracies, governments are voted out, not in.

Tapper, on 05 July 2024 - 01:59 PM, said:

Is this truly worrying, or are a lot of his voters just showing disgruntlement with Sunak and are going to return to the Conservatives once these have elected their own next (batshit crazy) party leader and assembled a shadow cabinet out of whatever remains to them?

History would seem to indicate most independent/minor party vote surges are temporary, and yes, punishing the "traditional" major parties.
Like when you get the silent treatment for a few days before it's mostly back to normal ...

But who knows these days? We could be seeing the beginning of something new.

[Tiste Simeon]

There was a poll a week or so back that suggested of all the people voting Labour, it was 68% or something said they were doing it to get rid of the Tories.

So not because they believe in Starmer
Which is why Reform are scary because they ate nipping at the heels all over the place and their brand of "acceptable" racism (and all the other -isms and -phobias) will become more prevalent.

[Werthead]

Some interesting stats comparing Reform's performance to UKIP (Farage's former party) in 2015: UKIP came second in 120 constituencies and won 12.6% of the votes to win 2 MPs. The Tories won a majority with 36.9% of the vote (granted not anywhere near as large as this).

Reform came second in 98 seats, getting 14.3% of the votes with 5 MPs. So they increased vote share by 1.7%, came second in 22 fewer seats but managed to get 3 extra MPs. The combined right-wing vote actually dropped from 49.5% in 2015 to 38% in 2024, whilst the combined centre-to-left vote (Labour-LibDem-Green) increased from 41% to 49%, not counting the regional parties.

The Tories managed to outflank UKIP, to some extent, by going for the Brexit referendum, which increased Tory support somewhat and pushed UKIP's support back down (at a serious cost to the British economy and social order, but still). So the question is can Labour do the same (if they can reduce illegal immigration that might defang some of the Reform threat in this term) and if this is simply the Farage-supporting ceiling when it feels like the Tories can be safely kicked in the balls (and Labour can be defeated because Ed Miliband ate a bacon sandwich in a slightly weird way).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 July 2024 - 11:52 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

The other stat I find interesting is that Labour actually got less votes than Corbyn did on both the general elections he ran...

[worry]

What might have been...US and UK have that in common. But Corby crushed it anyway in his own race, despite Labour's antics, and I hope he remains a thorn in Keir Starmer's side for the rest of his political career.

On the opposite end, fun to see Posie Parker crash and burn so decidedly. I know there's bigger fish to fry, but still.