[Gorefest]

So, two days until voting.

For those of you who missed it, the UK is holding a referendum on their relationship with the European Union. If people vote 'brexit', it will mean that the UK starts to make steps towards a full withdrawal from the European Union ("British exit"). If the remain camp wins, the UK will stay a member of the European Union.

Although I've been paying taxes in the UK for the past 10 years and own a house here, I cannot vote in this referendum as I am a Dutch national and not a British national. Seems a bit random to me, but fair enough.

According to the general polls, it is a very close race, with some polls predicting an exit and others a remain victory. Oddly enough, according to the bookies, bremain sits at 1/4 and brexit at 3/1 (i.e. the betting agencies lean very heavily in favour of a remain win)....


For what it's worth, my wife votes remain but my neighbour votes brexit. So they can be crossed away against each other. His wife votes brexit as well, but my in-laws are voting remain. So a slight advantage there for remain. Use it to your advantage! Inside info and all that...

[Egwene]

I fear that the 'leave' fraction will win the day. That is the impression I get from people I meet at work, from the dominance of 'leave' posters in my neck of the woods and from the 'leave' campaigners seeming to be by far the more vocal group, whether in newspaper comments section or with stands in the middle of town.

It seems to me that to some extent there is a class divide in the vote. Most people I know in manual labour jobs say they are going to vote leave. On the other hand, those who say they will vote remain are more likely to be in vocational jobs or are professionals. I think that people who feel that they are not doing as well as they feel they ought to, believe that a Euro-exit will solve all their woes overnight. Find a scapegoat, get rid of it and Paradise is here. Only it doesn't work that way.

The 'leave' fraction is probably also pretty identical with those who feel that they are being ignored - by the government, their council, their boss - basically everyone who is acting on their behalf... well, that is a huge number of people and those who are running things, who are telling other what to do - well, most of them don't really mix with those who are not like them, do they? This referendum may come as a pretty nasty shock to a lot of people who simply have no real connection to the 'grey' masses of society. Trouble is, once that mass is on the move, the momentum can take it in some very scary directions. You only have to look at the French Revolution or Germany on the Eve of World War II. History is repeating itself again and again.

I am concerned that the UK will enter a period of great instability should 'leave' win the day and that a UK exit may have a knock-on effect on the EU with other members maybe following. The European Union has safeguarded the stability in Europe - I only hope that Europe will manage to remain stable whatever the outcome.

[Werthead]

There has been a somewhat strange phenomenon where supporters of the Leave campaign have said they've "had enough of listening to experts with acronyms in their names" and seem to - in some cases quite genuinely - expect that within months of Brexit there'll be fresh shipbuilding on the Clyde and mining pits opening again in Wales. The idea that British industry collapsed due due to a lack of competitiveness and the subsequent crushing of the labour movement by Tories, rather than the EU which didn't even exist in its current form back then, seems alien to them. There's also been a very strange rush of people who hate TTIP - the toxic American trade deal that gives American companies the right to sue national governments which try to limit their operations for, say, health or safety reasons - to the Leave camp, despite the fact that Britain will be far better protected from TTIP if we stay in the EU (France has just promised to veto it, pretty much killing it stone cold dead in the water) rather than if we leave, as Cameron has said he thinks it's a splendid idea.

I think the scapegoating of the EU for all the woes of society has been a canny - if also blatantly untrue and self-defeating - move by the Leave camp.

[Morgoth]

I think the main issue for me is that (keeping in mind that I do not live, nor vote, anywhere in the UK) every major argument I've heard from the leave camp is easily disproven as false.

Also, Batallion is guaranteed to be in the leave camp, and so the decision as to what is the right choice comes easy.

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

I do live in Britain, and I'm terrified Leave is going to win the day. We're watching the live debate at the moment and twice Leave have been pulled up for outright lying by Remain - but the damage I fear has already been done. Those who don't know and won't find out any better have already swallowed the lies.

Remain have done well tonight - but I think it's too late.

[Tiste Simeon]

The problem here is that in so many things, feeling beat facts. I have got in a few arguments at work by people who just don't care about the hundreds of facts that say leaving would be insanity. They just "want their country back" or some such rhetoric. I get really frustrated because those who are firmly leave are so adamant that they are doing the right thing for the country they are blatantly ignoring any evidence to the contrary.

The fear factor is strong and Farage & co. know exactly how it use it. I am dreading Friday because I actually don't think there are enough people who have had a good long think about it.

[Tattersail_]

I am voting out. I am sick to death of the "facts" as you put it Tiste. I was torn 50/50 for quite a while but both sides have lied their asses off, in the short run I think it will get harder for us but in the long run I think we will be better off. I think we are all being manipulated regardless of what you hear, if you look at all the tossers voting out and all the great celebrities voting in, you may just vote because of that. Voting In "looks" to be the right choice whatever spin you put on it, so I am going against the grain, I want out. Even if Brexit wins, the politician's can just decide to remain, because the vote is just a public opinion.

I'm not one to write fucking huge posts/points but a million reasons have brought me to this point.

Incidentally my wife is voting IN, best friends voting IN, work colleagues voting out. No one knows the right decision.

[Gorefest]

Surely all people need to know is that Katie Hopkins votes brexit? That alone should put everyone firmly in the remain camp.

[Tattersail_]

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 08:50 AM, said:

Surely all people need to know is that Katie Hopkins votes brexit? That alone should put everyone firmly in the remain camp.

Exactly my point. Scaremongering.

David Beckham, J K Rowling and Daniel Craig all voting in, so let's copy them

[Silencer]

By far and away the biggest warning label on the leave camp is the racist, xenophobic, nationlistic rehtoric. I mean, fucking UKIP want out, what does that tell you?

There is no taking back the country. There is no reduction of immigration. No reduction of regulations (and who the fuck wants that, when most of them benefit the general population or are health-and-safety related?). There isn't even any merit in the "not being dictated to" line because that doesn't happen any more in the EU than it will out of it (90% of the stuff decided on by the EU is voted on by indirectly elected officials, and the rest of it is mostly going to happen anyway due to market pressure and treaties and trade deals).

Voting leave is only based on gut feeling and xenophobic fearmongering. Staying in might be based on gut feeling and scare tactics too, but at least the IN camp *also* has actual reasons to stay.

[Tapper]

Morgoth, on 21 June 2016 - 08:28 PM, said:

I think the main issue for me is that (keeping in mind that I do not live, nor vote, anywhere in the UK) every major argument I've heard from the leave camp is easily disproven as false.

Also, Batallion is guaranteed to be in the leave camp, and so the decision as to what is the right choice comes easy.

I agree that the arguments against are mostly crap.
However, the sentiments are perhaps less inaccurate than the badly thought out arguments for leaving. Europe has made big and costly mistakes in the past (Greece in the monetary union), and politicians on the national level are slow to identify these or take the blame. Europe has been even slower in rectifying them.

To illustrate: part of the debacle of the recent Dutch referendum on the EU-treaty with the Ukraine (resulting in an anti-European no-vote) was that not a single pro-treaty politician had a good argument for it and the pro-campaigning was lacklustre to say the least. In itself, that was not surprising, because this subject should never have been subjected to a referendum, because it is complex - and I doubt many politicians understood the text themselves.

The no-vote by contrast was never based on facts about the treaty (although it did drag up 'facts' about different treaties). It was based on sentimentality. It was the first opportunity since the last general elections and it turned the referendum on a relatively minor issue into an opportunity to broadcast a broader sense of dislike and distrust of the national government and Europe. However, this also made the no-camp much easier to identify with.

Also, when things go well (Schengen), the national government is there to take the credit.
When things go wrong, national elected representatives are the first to blame the faceless institution that is the EU, in which every country is a minority. Not that this matters, because voting in the European Parlement is not only defined by national interest, but also by political leaning. On top of that, compromises that result in the line 'We made a compromise in which we gain a lot, but also have to sacrifice something for the common good' still means sacrificing - and those gains are often unclear, even if the fact that investment in newer members will long term strengthen the entire European market are as vague as they are true - after all, if you only drive over a jammed road between Rotterdam and Antwerp, an investment in Slovenian infrastructure seems pointless. The same goes for an open job market, in which Polish truck drivers seem to hog all the rides between Rotterdam and Antwerp, even though they can't (and don't) through European regulations, and that is not even taking into account issues that appeal to a minority of voters, such as environmental protection, air quality, science and research, or issues that people see as a national interest, such as the armed forces (even though they're embedded into NATO).

The Brexit referendum (or one on Nexit, which is now being called for here and there in the Netherlands) is not about a single treaty, but about a myriad of them, coupled to institutions, expenses and income, political leanings and unarguably a big bag of sentiment. Absolutely no-one understands the full complications of a Leave, let alone the ripple effects on the rest of Europe and other treaties - what of the West-European Union and its Rapid Reaction Force - is Britain going to withdraw from that as well, and if so, what does this mean for NATO, in the light of the stance taken towards Russia, for example?

[Khellendros]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

I am voting out. I am sick to death of the "facts" as you put it Tiste. I was torn 50/50 for quite a while but both sides have lied their asses off, in the short run I think it will get harder for us but in the long run I think we will be better off. I think we are all being manipulated regardless of what you hear, if you look at all the tossers voting out and all the great celebrities voting in, you may just vote because of that. Voting In "looks" to be the right choice whatever spin you put on it, so I am going against the grain, I want out. Even if Brexit wins, the politician's can just decide to remain, because the vote is just a public opinion.

I'm not one to write fucking huge posts/points but a million reasons have brought me to this point.

Incidentally my wife is voting IN, best friends voting IN, work colleagues voting out. No one knows the right decision.

I'd be very interested to know what your reasons for voting out are. I ask because the people I've encountered who are voting out tend to be of the older generation, and you're the first person I know of our generation that's deciding to vote out, so I'm curious to know what's decided it for you.

[Coltaine -]

I'm not living in GB, but I have followed the debate and the polls for a while.

From what I have seen and heard the motivation of the Leave-movement has a lot in common with other movements in europe of the last years. It's a movement for people who are dissatisfied with the current situation, have fears about the future and maybe currently problems in their life. They look for simple answers for complex questions and some populists offering them a scapegoat for their problems. And that never goes well, as there are no simple answers. I don't want to say that the supporters of leave are automatically right-wing, even if several ideas of UKIP are completely nuts, but I think alot of them decide by guts only. So it is nearly impossible to argue with them. We have the same problem here with some people.

Personally I think that staying in the EU is the safer option for GB. Sure, the EU has problems. But also a lot advantages. There is always the possibility of improving things (I'm not talking about one country demanding even more exceptions and financial special arrangements for itself). Leave is a very uncertain option for everyone. And I think the first years could be rought for both GB and EU. I don't dare to guess what will happen in the long term.

BTW, how do you think about the possibility of a second referedum in Scotland about Independence should the leave-movement win?

This post has been edited by - Coltaine -: 23 June 2016 - 01:27 PM

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 08:52 AM, said:

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 08:50 AM, said:

Surely all people need to know is that Katie Hopkins votes brexit? That alone should put everyone firmly in the remain camp.

Exactly my point. Scaremongering.

David Beckham, J K Rowling and Daniel Craig all voting in, so let's copy them

And this is all the more the pity. I don't give a shit what Beckham, Katie Hopkins, Rowling or the Page 3 girl of the day would vote. What do they know? I really wouldn't care about what Remain says about the budget after Brexit, or what Leave says about it. One is financial scaremongering (even if it is true), the other is a Promised Land and both perceptions are coloured.
It is sad that a discussion on the merits of the EU and the opinion of 'independent' experts on law, economics and statistics are overshadowed by people who have political careers at stake.

The appeal of Leave is that apart from pointing out current flaws that seem to be the EU's doing (mostly faulty) they also promise that things will be better.
Remain campaign seems mostly focused on how things will be worse if the UK leaves without paying much attention to the good things the EU has, can and might offer: positivism is mostly absent in their message.

[Tattersail_]

Khellendros, on 22 June 2016 - 09:38 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

I am voting out. I am sick to death of the "facts" as you put it Tiste. I was torn 50/50 for quite a while but both sides have lied their asses off, in the short run I think it will get harder for us but in the long run I think we will be better off. I think we are all being manipulated regardless of what you hear, if you look at all the tossers voting out and all the great celebrities voting in, you may just vote because of that. Voting In "looks" to be the right choice whatever spin you put on it, so I am going against the grain, I want out. Even if Brexit wins, the politician's can just decide to remain, because the vote is just a public opinion.

I'm not one to write fucking huge posts/points but a million reasons have brought me to this point.

Incidentally my wife is voting IN, best friends voting IN, work colleagues voting out. No one knows the right decision.

I'd be very interested to know what your reasons for voting out are. I ask because the people I've encountered who are voting out tend to be of the older generation, and you're the first person I know of our generation that's deciding to vote out, so I'm curious to know what's decided it for you.

Every time I open my mouth Stefan I get shot down. Personally I hate the way both sides have conducted themselves and I see good points to stay and good points to leave but you want to know what swayed my vote to out. It's deep man, very deep. Not proven either. You'll laugh too. Its too complicated for me to fully explain as well, and however I say it I already know your answers but its bone deep and it ain't shifting.

I am a married man, with a mortgage ie own my own home, I have a beautiful wife and a beautiful child and I am happy. I have great friends and family and nothing in my life makes me unhappy. So by voting IN i'd be okay, nothing would affect me.

Yet, just because I am content does not mean I don't see with my own eyes the struggles that are hitting people, I want a future that will be better for all and that won't happen if we stay IN.

The reason I am voting out is mostly conspiracy but I believe it.

I think we are being pushed into, "vote remain", by covert tactics such as the one I expressed above. People who are seen in a positive light by the majority are seen to vote to remain whereas people who are seen in a negative light are voting to leave. Another tactic is how the news has had a total blackout of events in Europe and you hear nothing of what is happening in the EU. Last Christmas Germany demanding the UK pay £2 Billion extra than what was agreed, because we were doing well, was in the news and something similar is set to happen but they are waiting until after the referendum to release these details. If the EU is working then why are Spain, Portugal and Greece on the bones of their arse? Any I am going on a tangent. I think the super rich prefer us to remain. I think it benefits the rich. I don't like how the politicians are selected.

Going back to a decision a few years ago, I mentioned elsewhere, the whole Milliband fiasco. Politician's are smart. There are fucking brilliant minded high IQ people who know that a lispy fucking clown Milliband would not get votes over a fucking well spoken well represented Cameron whereas the other Milliband might have given him a shot.

Money talks, money makes everything go round in this world and the banks would prefer to stay in the EU for sure, because they are running it. Smartly.

We as the little guy have no say, no clout and we are sheep. I think exiting the EU would be a baby step to a better future but I don't doubt for one second that it is the last step.

The conspiracy I was talking about was to do with the richest families, the council of 13. I can go on multiple links like this one NWO but I think that would be going off topic.

In my gut, I want change. I don't like the way it is, and I don't see anything changing whilst we go with the flow.

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 22 June 2016 - 09:54 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 08:52 AM, said:

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 08:50 AM, said:

Surely all people need to know is that Katie Hopkins votes brexit? That alone should put everyone firmly in the remain camp.

Exactly my point. Scaremongering.

David Beckham, J K Rowling and Daniel Craig all voting in, so let's copy them

And this is all the more the pity. I don't give a shit what Beckham, Katie Hopkins, Rowling or the Page 3 girl of the day would vote. What do they know? I really wouldn't care about what Remain says about the budget after Brexit, or what Leave says about it. One is financial scaremongering (even if it is true), the other is a Promised Land and both perceptions are coloured.
It is sad that a discussion on the merits of the EU and the opinion of 'independent' experts on law, economics and statistics are overshadowed by people who have political careers at stake.

The appeal of Leave is that apart from pointing out current flaws that seem to be the EU's doing (mostly faulty) they also promise that things will be better.
Remain campaign seems mostly focused on how things will be worse if the UK leaves without paying much attention to the good things the EU has, can and might offer: positivism is mostly absent in their message.

Exactly. You're smart, but a lot of people aren't. So they will vote because of Hawkins, or other famous figures.

I think you've hit a nail on the head here regarding that last paragraph. The remain campaign is scaremongering. They have not said, stay because of this, this and this. They say stay because if you don't this bad thing will happen and this one.

[Tattersail_]

I think I am a minority on the reason for leave because I don't mind things getting worse to get better. However, I saw that they can decide to Remain even if we vote to Leave. Maybe they can use this as a bargaining tool to change things they don't like in the EU.

[worry]

Out of curiosity, what does better look like and how does Brexit get you there?

[Gorefest]

But what makes you think that, if we leave, the 'rich people' won't dictate UK future either? If we leave now, it will be up to a Tory government to shape post-EU Britain as they will be the ones making all the deals. Things like TTIP, a currently discussed EU treaty which would give American and other global corporations powers to sue national governments and such, is very likely to be shot down by France. But Cameron and the Tory party are actually in favour of it, so there is a good chance that such dodgy treaties will come into existence once we leave and they could spell the end of institutions like the NHS. The EU is flawed, no doubt about it, and there is a big influence of lobbies backed by big money. But that will be the same situation whether you are in or out. If we are out, London finances with Tory backing will rule supreme without any counterbalance from the continent. If we stay in, there is a chance that you can affect issues from the inside and drive through reforms.

Also, both Wales and Scotland want to stay in the EU. Leaving would fracture an already fragile Britain, with a very likely new Scottish leave vote going up within the next two years and even Wales may start to have second thoughts about a united Britain. The EU is not ideal and it is not very democratic or transparent, I totally agree. However, a Tory-led England with big London finance money behind it seeking closer ties to the USA does not seem that much more colourful to me. It makes no economic sense, it makes no sense for social justice (most of the current worker laws and things like flex working and maternity/paternity leave are all European directives that the Tories openly dislike), and it makes no sense from a perspective of fighting terrorism or global environmental damage. All it will do is give us the illusion of independence for some time, before the reality kicks in and we are hijacked by non-European big money institutions.

Rich people and companies manipulating things is not an EU-specific phenomenon, it is a global reality. And it can only be regulated by making a joint fist, not by trying to disengage.

This post has been edited by Gorefest: 22 June 2016 - 10:53 AM

[Gorefest]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 10:15 AM, said:

I think you've hit a nail on the head here regarding that last paragraph. The remain campaign is scaremongering. They have not said, stay because of this, this and this. They say stay because if you don't this bad thing will happen and this one.

Both sides are scaremongering. Not just the remain side.