[Tattersail_]

worry, on 22 June 2016 - 10:40 AM, said:

Out of curiosity, what does better look like and how does Brexit get you there?

In the instance above I'm talking about money, cost of living, austerity, debts, etc. The way Remain go on about leaving is like we wouldn't survive and things will go to the dogs, but no one actually knows, there are prosperous countries that are not in the EU.

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 10:21 AM, said:

I think I am a minority on the reason for leave because I don't mind things getting worse to get better. However, I saw that they can decide to Remain even if we vote to Leave. Maybe they can use this as a bargaining tool to change things they don't like in the EU.

This is the Boris Johnson argument (and one of the reasons why I think Leave is selling bullshit): when he initially trended towards Leave, it was because he believed with a Leave vote, Cameron could negotiate a better deal than he did with that bargaining chip.
I can tell you right now that this is not going to happen. There is no way the other prime ministers can go back to their constituencies and sell a new compromise. Every single country in the EU would try this policy and it would be a disaster.

Quote

If the EU is working then why are Spain, Portugal and Greece on the bones of their arse?

Lots of reasons, and a great many of them are internal politics mixed with outside factors. Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro, but that alone was not enough to drag it down.
It also had antiquated labour and pension policies, inefficient tax gathering and was spending and borrowing more than it could sustain and it could continue doing that because of the strength of the Euro-block. If anything, more European involvement/ demands just after their entry into the monetary union would have helped the country.

Spain and Portugal may have had some of the same issues as Greece, but they were transitioning economies when the crisis hit (much like Ireland, but where Ireland overheated, one can argue I guess that S+P were too slow). Italy is a economically deeply divided country with a hyper-rich north and a poor south, and it was run for a long time by Berlusconi, which is like being governed by a more lecherous and slightly less likely to nuke someone Donald Trump.

[Tattersail_]

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 10:49 AM, said:

But what makes you think that, if we leave, the 'rich people' won't dictate UK future either? If we leave now, it will be up to a Tory government to shape post-EU Britain as they will be the ones making all the deals. Things like TTIP, a currently discussed EU treaty which would give American and other global corporations powers to sue national governments and such, is very likely to be shot down by France. But Cameron and the Tory party are actually in favour of it, so there is a good chance that such dodgy treaties will come into existence once we leave and they could spell the end of institutions like the NHS. The EU is flawed, no doubt about it, and there is a big influence of lobbies backed by big money. But that will be the same situation whether you are in or out. If we are out, London finances with Tory backing will rule supreme without any counterbalance from the continent. If we stay in, there is a chance that you can affect issues from the inside and drive through reforms.

Also, both Wales and Scotland want to stay in the EU. Leaving would fracture an already fragile Britain, with a very likely new Scottish leave vote going up within the next two years and even Wales may start to have second thoughts about a united Britain. The EU is not ideal and it is not very democratic or transparent, I totally agree. However, a Tory-led England with big London finance money behind it seeking closer ties to the USA does not seem that much more colourful to me. It makes no economic sense, it makes no sense for social justice (most of the current worker laws and things like flex working and maternity/paternity leave are all European directives that the Tories openly dislike), and it makes no sense from a perspective of fighting terrorism or global environmental damage. All it will do is give us the illusion of independence for some time, before the reality kicks in and we are hijacked by non-European big money institutions.

Rich people and companies manipulating things is not an EU-specific phenomenon, it is a global reality. And it can only be regulated by making a joint fist, not by trying to disengage.

This is the reason my best friends are voting IN. They cannot stand the thought of the Tories making all the decisions.

This is something that needs changing as well, but first get ourselves in control of our own fate then try for change in the way we as a country are run, change the voting, change the government, don't stand for people trying to destroy our NHS, don't stand for it and it won't stand. The only way we fail is by doing nothing, and that is what a vote to remain will do. A failure to act when called upon.

You think the NHS will become obsolete if we leave? Why do you think Wales and Scotland will back a vote to remain? Maybe if they open a referendum they decide to leave to?

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 22 June 2016 - 11:16 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 10:21 AM, said:

I think I am a minority on the reason for leave because I don't mind things getting worse to get better. However, I saw that they can decide to Remain even if we vote to Leave. Maybe they can use this as a bargaining tool to change things they don't like in the EU.

This is the Boris Johnson argument (and one of the reasons why I think Leave is selling bullshit): when he initially trended towards Leave, it was because he believed with a Leave vote, Cameron could negotiate a better deal than he did with that bargaining chip.
I can tell you right now that this is not going to happen. There is no way the other prime ministers can go back to their constituencies and sell a new compromise. Every single country in the EU would try this policy and it would be a disaster.

Quote

If the EU is working then why are Spain, Portugal and Greece on the bones of their arse?

Lots of reasons, and a great many of them are internal politics mixed with outside factors. Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro, but that alone was not enough to drag it down.
It also had antiquated labour and pension policies, inefficient tax gathering and was spending and borrowing more than it could sustain and it could continue doing that because of the strength of the Euro-block. If anything, more European involvement/ demands just after their entry into the monetary union would have helped the country.

Spain and Portugal may have had some of the same issues as Greece, but they were transitioning economies when the crisis hit (much like Ireland, but where Ireland overheated, one can argue I guess that S+P were too slow). Italy is a economically deeply divided country with a hyper-rich north and a poor south, and it was run for a long time by Berlusconi, which is like being governed by a more lecherous and slightly less likely to nuke someone Donald Trump.

I haven't heard Boris' argument because I think he is a clown, I'm not looking into what they are saying, but I see why it would be a disaster with every other country trying it on. If we leave what will happen across other countries in the EU? You think they are waiting to see what happens?

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 11:22 AM, said:

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 10:49 AM, said:

But what makes you think that, if we leave, the 'rich people' won't dictate UK future either? If we leave now, it will be up to a Tory government to shape post-EU Britain as they will be the ones making all the deals. Things like TTIP, a currently discussed EU treaty which would give American and other global corporations powers to sue national governments and such, is very likely to be shot down by France. But Cameron and the Tory party are actually in favour of it, so there is a good chance that such dodgy treaties will come into existence once we leave and they could spell the end of institutions like the NHS. The EU is flawed, no doubt about it, and there is a big influence of lobbies backed by big money. But that will be the same situation whether you are in or out. If we are out, London finances with Tory backing will rule supreme without any counterbalance from the continent. If we stay in, there is a chance that you can affect issues from the inside and drive through reforms.

Also, both Wales and Scotland want to stay in the EU. Leaving would fracture an already fragile Britain, with a very likely new Scottish leave vote going up within the next two years and even Wales may start to have second thoughts about a united Britain. The EU is not ideal and it is not very democratic or transparent, I totally agree. However, a Tory-led England with big London finance money behind it seeking closer ties to the USA does not seem that much more colourful to me. It makes no economic sense, it makes no sense for social justice (most of the current worker laws and things like flex working and maternity/paternity leave are all European directives that the Tories openly dislike), and it makes no sense from a perspective of fighting terrorism or global environmental damage. All it will do is give us the illusion of independence for some time, before the reality kicks in and we are hijacked by non-European big money institutions.

Rich people and companies manipulating things is not an EU-specific phenomenon, it is a global reality. And it can only be regulated by making a joint fist, not by trying to disengage.

This is the reason my best friends are voting IN. They cannot stand the thought of the Tories making all the decisions.

This is something that needs changing as well, but first get ourselves in control of our own fate then try for change in the way we as a country are run, change the voting, change the government, don't stand for people trying to destroy our NHS, don't stand for it and it won't stand. The only way we fail is by doing nothing, and that is what a vote to remain will do. A failure to act when called upon.

You think the NHS will become obsolete if we leave? Why do you think Wales and Scotland will back a vote to remain? Maybe if they open a referendum they decide to leave to?

But you can do all that while remaining in the EU, because these are all national concerns, unless you feel that things do need to become worse than they currently are to give enough people the trigger to actually change things?

[Khellendros]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 11:14 AM, said:

worry, on 22 June 2016 - 10:40 AM, said:

Out of curiosity, what does better look like and how does Brexit get you there?

In the instance above I'm talking about money, cost of living, austerity, debts, etc. The way Remain go on about leaving is like we wouldn't survive and things will go to the dogs, but no one actually knows, there are prosperous countries that are not in the EU.

You're talking about places like Switzerland and Norway. In fact, I think Norway has been brought up quite frequently by the leave camp as a model to follow. It's not quite the full picture though. Norway may not be part of the EU but it does have access to the single market, something which a leaving UK might not. And Norway still does send money to the EU - it's the 10th highest contributor. Norway is outside the EU but it is part of the Schengen zone, so UK already has tighter border controls than Norway, if we want to talk about immigration. Ultimately, Norway has a close relationship with the EU, but crucially NO say whatsoever in how the EU is run. It has no decision-making power, no vote.

The Swiss are somewhat more detached from the EU, but have to follow EU law in anything that gives them access to the EU market. Their arrangements also don't cover financial services (Swiss being a law unto themselves in that particular category), so in a Swiss model the UK's financial sector (which is enormous), would not have access to the single market.

In any case, I'm not trying to dissuade you from your vote, Tatts. I only wanted to know what made your decision. Correct me if I've got this wrong, but it sounds like what it seems to boil down to for a lot of people - frustration at the current status quo, and saying 'fuck you' to that. Well, I think the vast majority of us in the UK want to do that. It's just that I'm not sure this is the fight to do it with (and personally, and this might be coming from my non-UK background, but I've actually always been in favour of 'ever-closer union', and an ultimate 'United States of Europe' model).

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 22 June 2016 - 11:28 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 11:22 AM, said:

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 10:49 AM, said:

But what makes you think that, if we leave, the 'rich people' won't dictate UK future either? If we leave now, it will be up to a Tory government to shape post-EU Britain as they will be the ones making all the deals. Things like TTIP, a currently discussed EU treaty which would give American and other global corporations powers to sue national governments and such, is very likely to be shot down by France. But Cameron and the Tory party are actually in favour of it, so there is a good chance that such dodgy treaties will come into existence once we leave and they could spell the end of institutions like the NHS. The EU is flawed, no doubt about it, and there is a big influence of lobbies backed by big money. But that will be the same situation whether you are in or out. If we are out, London finances with Tory backing will rule supreme without any counterbalance from the continent. If we stay in, there is a chance that you can affect issues from the inside and drive through reforms.

Also, both Wales and Scotland want to stay in the EU. Leaving would fracture an already fragile Britain, with a very likely new Scottish leave vote going up within the next two years and even Wales may start to have second thoughts about a united Britain. The EU is not ideal and it is not very democratic or transparent, I totally agree. However, a Tory-led England with big London finance money behind it seeking closer ties to the USA does not seem that much more colourful to me. It makes no economic sense, it makes no sense for social justice (most of the current worker laws and things like flex working and maternity/paternity leave are all European directives that the Tories openly dislike), and it makes no sense from a perspective of fighting terrorism or global environmental damage. All it will do is give us the illusion of independence for some time, before the reality kicks in and we are hijacked by non-European big money institutions.

Rich people and companies manipulating things is not an EU-specific phenomenon, it is a global reality. And it can only be regulated by making a joint fist, not by trying to disengage.

This is the reason my best friends are voting IN. They cannot stand the thought of the Tories making all the decisions.

This is something that needs changing as well, but first get ourselves in control of our own fate then try for change in the way we as a country are run, change the voting, change the government, don't stand for people trying to destroy our NHS, don't stand for it and it won't stand. The only way we fail is by doing nothing, and that is what a vote to remain will do. A failure to act when called upon.

You think the NHS will become obsolete if we leave? Why do you think Wales and Scotland will back a vote to remain? Maybe if they open a referendum they decide to leave to?

But you can do all that while remaining in the EU, because these are all national concerns, unless you feel that things do need to become worse than they currently are to give enough people the trigger to actually change things?

Revolution!

my ideal scenario would be leaving the EU and have Jeremy Corbyn in charge. Don't know how close to that we could get.

[Gorefest]

On your final comment: the SNP during their entire compaign under Alex Salmond made it very clear that they wanted to stay in Europe and that they even would consider switching to the Euro. They have also openly stated several times by mouth of Nicola Sturgeon that the SNP will push for a new independence vote and a switch to the Euro if Britain chooses to leave. The SNP currently has a vast majority of votes in Scotland and they are still highly popular, so there is no indication that the Scots will back brexit.

Wales is currently receiving more money for infrastructure and development from Europe than from Westminster. So unless the UK government decides to significantly increase their spending in Wales, for them it will be a massive financial and economical blow.

As an add-on: as Khellendros said earlier, please don't take this is a personal attack and an attempt to make you sway your mind. Everyone is free to vote for what they believe. Both sides have muddled the waters with lies and half-truths and a general sense of disenfranchisement is very understandable and shared across the board, but you have to ask yourself if this is the right fight. Lots of the issues and concerns raised, like migration and autonomy, can already be sorted on a national level without any need to leave. It is just that the politicians aren't willing or interested. That is a UK problem, not an EU problem.

This post has been edited by Gorefest: 22 June 2016 - 11:44 AM

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 11:26 AM, said:

Tapper, on 22 June 2016 - 11:16 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 10:21 AM, said:

I think I am a minority on the reason for leave because I don't mind things getting worse to get better. However, I saw that they can decide to Remain even if we vote to Leave. Maybe they can use this as a bargaining tool to change things they don't like in the EU.

This is the Boris Johnson argument (and one of the reasons why I think Leave is selling bullshit): when he initially trended towards Leave, it was because he believed with a Leave vote, Cameron could negotiate a better deal than he did with that bargaining chip.
I can tell you right now that this is not going to happen. There is no way the other prime ministers can go back to their constituencies and sell a new compromise. Every single country in the EU would try this policy and it would be a disaster.

Quote

If the EU is working then why are Spain, Portugal and Greece on the bones of their arse?

Lots of reasons, and a great many of them are internal politics mixed with outside factors. Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro, but that alone was not enough to drag it down.
It also had antiquated labour and pension policies, inefficient tax gathering and was spending and borrowing more than it could sustain and it could continue doing that because of the strength of the Euro-block. If anything, more European involvement/ demands just after their entry into the monetary union would have helped the country.

Spain and Portugal may have had some of the same issues as Greece, but they were transitioning economies when the crisis hit (much like Ireland, but where Ireland overheated, one can argue I guess that S+P were too slow). Italy is a economically deeply divided country with a hyper-rich north and a poor south, and it was run for a long time by Berlusconi, which is like being governed by a more lecherous and slightly less likely to nuke someone Donald Trump.

I haven't heard Boris' argument because I think he is a clown, I'm not looking into what they are saying, but I see why it would be a disaster with every other country trying it on. If we leave what will happen across other countries in the EU? You think they are waiting to see what happens?

The economic spillover of Brexit is likely to make things marginally worse short term on the continent, too. And people will blame Europe for that, probably.
Pro-Leave nationalist parties on the continent will also demand referenda (in the Netherlands, there's a persistent dream of an unattainable Northern European Union, including the 'rich' countries: Germany, Denmark, Benelux). In the current right wing climate, such referenda will probably happen and might even be won by pro-Leave groups. It's going to be fairly close, no matter what.
The question then is, what do politicians do? Ignore the result (even in case of a close loss) and the nationalist right will just swell up to an even bigger proportion of the vote, and the core of it will just be more determined.
The alternative is giving in and watch everything built up over decades crumble, to almost no-one's benefit within Europe. I think the current political trend amongst the centre and progressive parties is to just not be ambitious, leave things as they are (including the problems) and hope that with timely economic growth Euro-optimism and progressive politics get back in fashion.

[Tattersail_]

Khellendros, on 22 June 2016 - 11:36 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 11:14 AM, said:

worry, on 22 June 2016 - 10:40 AM, said:

Out of curiosity, what does better look like and how does Brexit get you there?

In the instance above I'm talking about money, cost of living, austerity, debts, etc. The way Remain go on about leaving is like we wouldn't survive and things will go to the dogs, but no one actually knows, there are prosperous countries that are not in the EU.

You're talking about places like Switzerland and Norway. In fact, I think Norway has been brought up quite frequently by the leave camp as a model to follow. It's not quite the full picture though. Norway may not be part of the EU but it does have access to the single market, something which a leaving UK might not. And Norway still does send money to the EU - it's the 10th highest contributor. Norway is outside the EU but it is part of the Schengen zone, so UK already has tighter border controls than Norway, if we want to talk about immigration. Ultimately, Norway has a close relationship with the EU, but crucially NO say whatsoever in how the EU is run. It has no decision-making power, no vote.

The Swiss are somewhat more detached from the EU, but have to follow EU law in anything that gives them access to the EU market. Their arrangements also don't cover financial services (Swiss being a law unto themselves in that particular category), so in a Swiss model the UK's financial sector (which is enormous), would not have access to the single market.

In any case, I'm not trying to dissuade you from your vote, Tatts. I only wanted to know what made your decision. Correct me if I've got this wrong, but it sounds like what it seems to boil down to for a lot of people - frustration at the current status quo, and saying 'fuck you' to that. Well, I think the vast majority of us in the UK want to do that. It's just that I'm not sure this is the fight to do it with (and personally, and this might be coming from my non-UK background, but I've actually always been in favour of 'ever-closer union', and an ultimate 'United States of Europe' model).

immigration doesn't bother me. This is not why i'd want to leave. Is Iceland doing okay? That is a model I could get behind...

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 22 June 2016 - 11:39 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 11:26 AM, said:

Tapper, on 22 June 2016 - 11:16 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 10:21 AM, said:

I think I am a minority on the reason for leave because I don't mind things getting worse to get better. However, I saw that they can decide to Remain even if we vote to Leave. Maybe they can use this as a bargaining tool to change things they don't like in the EU.

This is the Boris Johnson argument (and one of the reasons why I think Leave is selling bullshit): when he initially trended towards Leave, it was because he believed with a Leave vote, Cameron could negotiate a better deal than he did with that bargaining chip.
I can tell you right now that this is not going to happen. There is no way the other prime ministers can go back to their constituencies and sell a new compromise. Every single country in the EU would try this policy and it would be a disaster.

Quote

If the EU is working then why are Spain, Portugal and Greece on the bones of their arse?

Lots of reasons, and a great many of them are internal politics mixed with outside factors. Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro, but that alone was not enough to drag it down.
It also had antiquated labour and pension policies, inefficient tax gathering and was spending and borrowing more than it could sustain and it could continue doing that because of the strength of the Euro-block. If anything, more European involvement/ demands just after their entry into the monetary union would have helped the country.

Spain and Portugal may have had some of the same issues as Greece, but they were transitioning economies when the crisis hit (much like Ireland, but where Ireland overheated, one can argue I guess that S+P were too slow). Italy is a economically deeply divided country with a hyper-rich north and a poor south, and it was run for a long time by Berlusconi, which is like being governed by a more lecherous and slightly less likely to nuke someone Donald Trump.

I haven't heard Boris' argument because I think he is a clown, I'm not looking into what they are saying, but I see why it would be a disaster with every other country trying it on. If we leave what will happen across other countries in the EU? You think they are waiting to see what happens?

The economic spillover of Brexit is likely to make things marginally worse short term on the continent, too. And people will blame Europe for that, probably.
Pro-Leave nationalist parties on the continent will also demand referenda (in the Netherlands, there's a persistent dream of an unattainable Northern European Union, including the 'rich' countries: Germany, Denmark, Benelux). In the current right wing climate, such referenda will probably happen and might even be won by pro-Leave groups. It's going to be fairly close, no matter what.
The question then is, what do politicians do? Ignore the result (even in case of a close loss) and the nationalist right will just swell up to an even bigger proportion of the vote, and the core of it will just be more determined.
The alternative is giving in and watch everything built up over decades crumble, to almost no-one's benefit within Europe. I think the current political trend amongst the centre and progressive parties is to just not be ambitious, leave things as they are (including the problems) and hope that with timely economic growth Euro-optimism and progressive politics get back in fashion.

What we are seeing for sure is a rise/fall of an empire. In the distant future people will look back on this as a pivotal moment, the situation is too complex for you or me to figure out. It's like a real life game of civilization. You all make good points, i'm not denying that, I am voting out but not for the reasons the majority of out voters are voting, I guess I want change and like Khell says I am fed up of the current climate.

[Morgoth]

Tattersail_, on 22 June 2016 - 10:11 AM, said:

The conspiracy I was talking about was to do with the richest families, the council of 13. I can go on multiple links like this one NWO but I think that would be going off topic.

The shadow forces behind the New World Order (NWO) are following a slow-paced agenda of total control over mankind and our planet's resources. David Icke coined it the "Totalitarian Tip-Toe," because "they" are making very small steps towards our complete and definitive enslavement.

As a result, the masses remain relatively unaware of the fact that their liberties are being gradually taken away, while the power of the NWO octopus grows steadily.

This here is your problem, tatts. You've stumbled into one of the crazier tinfoil-branches of the internet.

[Macros]

Whilst I don't think there's a supergroup controlling the world like a bond film

I do think we're sliding inexorably into a global plutarchy.
Brexit/bremain. I don't think either result will affect my quality of life noticeably, I do think that both campaigns are run on lies and bullshit, scaremongering and spin. It highlights everything I hate about politics and politicians.
The money needs to be removed from politics, but a brexit won't do that. As such I will be voting IN.
However I would like to see the EU have a bit less control, or a push to make sure all nations have to follow the letter of the law ore stringently

[Mentalist]

Lol @ Tatts. EU as an "empire" seems weird to me.

I have no issues with a frustration vote- hell, there's been a trend of those, and it's only gonna get worse, imho.

Over the past 3 years I've ha to sort out a ton of political BS. If you want to try to get a more or less informed opinion on anything in politics, it's basically a full-time job: searching, cross-referencing, trying to find sources "reliable" by t virtue of not being caught in blatant lies. So, sadly it's totally unrealistic to expect voting majority to have an informed opinion. The joys of a modern political system.

Just an FYI, some 2 years ago a lot of frustrated people who felt a revolution passed them by decided to carve their own future. Now they're either refugees or living in a disputed cold war zone. Not saying Brexit will lead to war, but when frustrated people start asking for "power to change things and take charge" without thinking of HOW , consequences can be pretty different from expectations.

So really I'm just gonna comment on the NWO. Tatts, you have a job, a family. You feel the NWO is taking advantage of you. But you should keep things in perspective- the NWO is keeping you (and millions other Westerners) on top of the 6 billion food chain. Sure, they block your way to the top- but they also keep you from falling too far down. There's a reason the world's flocking to the West.

Basically, before votin to spite the NWO, just try imagine what happens if you succeed, the NWO goes away, and how will the frustrated masses with which you identify yourself by your "out" choice do things differently. Revolutions are cool on paper, but you're trading a lot of stability now for hope of something better with no idea what that better is. Meanwhile, someone out there already thought of what that "better" will be for them. And there's no guarantees you're part of the plan.

(that came out a tad too conspiratorial. But then again, i've witnessed a recent revolution, it's consequences, and my not-too-distant relatives have been shot at repeatedly, because some frustrated people decided they wanted "change", so I wouldn't want Europe to do smth stupid if they can avoid it).

[Werthead]

Quote

Out of curiosity, what does better look like and how does Brexit get you there?

It's basically a massive gamble. According to Brexit campaigners, Britain can vote to leave the European Union but still enjoy the benefits of being part of it, such as access to the free market and an open land border (between Northern Ireland and the Republic), without the negative consequences, such as paying a very large amount of money into the EU and without having to subscribe to the freedom of movement across borders. Furthermore, we will still be able to get good trade deals because, rather than negotiate separate deals between the EU and countries like China and America and then between Britain and those countries, it is possible that the same deals will be offered to us rather than spending years doing a separate deal (i.e. we get a free ride on the EU's coattails).

The problem is that countries like the US and China have said that won't happen and we'll have to negotiate a separate deal (which will take years) and that the EU has said that since the free movement of peoples and free market access are two of the four pillars of the EU, we can't have one without the other, exactly like Norway and Switzerland. Brexit have argued that the EU will back down from this demand because we're the fifth-largest economy in the world (which we are on paper, but in terms of raw spending power we are only twelfth) and not trading with us hurts them as well, but it ignores the fact that somethinkg like 40% of our trade is with the EU whilst only about 12% of the EU's trade is with us. It hurts them far less than it does us. More importantly, if Britain leaves the club and doesn't have the benefits of the club withdrawn, this will likely trigger a stampede of countries from Portugal to Greece to at least demand referendra of their own, potentially triggering the dissolution of the EU with much worse long-term consequences. On that basis, there is no logical reason whatsoever to expect us to get free access to the EU market and we will see tariffs reimposed.

The consequences of that are up in the air. At the very least, it will cause prices to rise modestly but noticeably in the supermarkets, will complicate foreign travel and will trigger political upheaval in Northern Ireland when the physical barriers are put back in place (Brexit are arguing the border will stay open, but it simply can't: you can't argue to leave the EU and then leave the border open and unchecked for anyone to wander across and hop on a ferry in Belfast to anywhere in the mainland UK). Given the fragility of the British economy at the moment, it would likely trigger a short, sharp recession. A worse-case scenario is a reversal of the economic gains of the last few years and a wholesale recession rivalling the 2008 one.

One message that did fail to get through in all of this is the one that Britain is overtaking France to become the second-largest economy in the EU and hence the second-most-powerful. And that, based on historic and current trends, Britain stands poised to jump over Germany to become the largest and most powerful economy in Europe in only about 12-14 years. If it stays in the EU. Remain has made a complete hash of communicating our current position in Europe which is probably the most favourable, most influential and most profitable it has ever been.

[polishgenius]

Basically, all-in-all, the level of the public discourse from both sides has been absolutely appalling: this little skit sums it up. It's awful. How the Remain side has let it get to this I do not know.

Quote

Is Iceland doing okay? That is a model I could get behind...

Iceland have a population of 300,000 people. What works for them really doesn't necessarily apply to a country nearly 200 times the size.

[champ]

Werthead, on 22 June 2016 - 05:52 PM, said:

[One message that did fail to get through in all of this is the one that Britain is overtaking France to become the second-largest economy in the EU and hence the second-most-powerful. And that, based on historic and current trends, Britain stands poised to jump over Germany to become the largest and most powerful economy in Europe in only about 12-14 years. If it stays in the EU. Remain has made a complete hash of communicating our current position in Europe which is probably the most favourable, most influential and most profitable it has ever been.

You know, Wert, that's probably the best argument I've heard from anyone, anywhere for Britain to remain in the EU. First time I've heard it put like this too and I've followed the coverage on this for months.

And that is the problem with the debate we've had...

For the Remain group, it's all about negativity, the dire consequences of leaving the EU, you listen to them and you'd think we're a little shitty country that has only ever had a prosperous time whilst we've been a member of the EU.

That alone makes me want to say fuck you to them, vote leave and we can then show them just what we can do.

What they should have done is informed us of the benefits of remaining in the EU, future plans of the EU, what we are achieving and what we hope to achieve whilst a member, long term goals etc etc rather than the doom and gloom.

Their campaign has "Epic Fail" written all over it.

As for the Leave campaign, we've had half assed answers and promises that seem wishful thinking at the minute with no informed explanation of what will happen if we vote to leave the EU but then again that is the problem, no one has any idea whatsoever what will happen.

The economy will take a hit no doubt and after that, it is anyones guess.

Look at the situation with the Euro, it was predicted we'd be ruined when we didn't sign up... well that was a lucky escape!

My vote is to leave...

It's a protest vote, I'm sick to death of politicians thinking they can walk over the thoughts and feelings of the public and do what they want and then BS about it. Our current crop of politicians at the top of the CON and LAB parties are a bunch of useless wankers IMO.

I want this vote to shit them up and realise things have got to change with current politics as this cannot continue.

[Gorefest]

But you aren't shitting them up as this is not a political vote. It is a vote for the economical and social future of the UK. Political protest votes should be cast during political elections. It's hijacking the wrong vehicle out of spite, and damn the consequences.

[champ]

Gorefest, on 22 June 2016 - 07:34 PM, said:

But you aren't shitting them up as this is not a political vote. It is a vote for the economical and social future of the UK. Political protest votes should be cast during political elections. It's hijacking the wrong vehicle out of spite, and damn the consequences.

True but I'm an emotional person heh and this is where I've ended up after many months of shit debate... the Remain camp did well didn't they...

There is another side to my vote though... I also think voting to leave will benefit the country in the very long term. Controlling our own destiny.

This will probably be inaccurate knowing the debate we've had but last night in the TV debate, Boris Johnson stated that we've voted against EU regulations 80 times now and everyone has passed, that sounds good for our own interests doesn't it... though I take that with a pinch of salt but it is still an example of what we have pushed on us.

I would love to know what these things are, what they mean and what impact they will have but do we ever find out? Half the time it is done behind closed doors by unelected officials.

Hell, I'm working class, if shit hits the fan it will effect me as much as anyone else but I aren't voting for myself, I am voting for what I think will benefit our future generations. I am willing to suffer for it.

Someone said earlier voting to leave is probably done on gut instinct and that's what I went with...

Ask me again in twenty years if I was right because right now, no one knows.

This post has been edited by champ: 22 June 2016 - 07:59 PM

[Gorefest]

champ, on 22 June 2016 - 07:57 PM, said:

This will probably be inaccurate knowing the debate we've had but last night in the TV debate, Boris Johnson stated that we've voted against EU regulations 80 times now and everyone has passed, that sounds good for our own interests doesn't it... though I take that with a pinch of salt but it is still an example of what we have pushed on us.

I would love to know what these things are, what they mean and what impact they will have but do we ever find out? Half the time it is done behind closed doors by unelected officials.

Britain has voted 'no' on regulations that ended up being passed between 56 and 72 times since 1996. During that same period they abstained 72 times and they voted 'yes' around 2500 times. So that means that only about 2% of regulations that the UK opposed were passed, 95% were approved, and 3% the UK didnt vote. It is all about how you use statistics. The 80 votes that Boris used arent only an exaggeration, they are also a tiny amount of the total regulations we voted on. We got our way 95% of the time. You lose some, you win lots. Just saying how many times you lost a vote doesn't give an honest picture of the facts.

This post has been edited by Gorefest: 22 June 2016 - 08:20 PM