[Lock]

Alright, here is my current thinking. The premise below is based on a complete supposition, so may be entirely inaccurate. Similarly, the narrowing down of the suspect pool is largely based on reasoning rather than evidence - but this is the track I've decided to follow for now. In any event, I do think the scenario is a plausible one - plausible enough to be worth investigating anyway.

So, the theory is: Monok was killed because of the irritating RP, and nothing more. This leads to the suspicion that the killer was not around at the time when 1) Monok started getting heat themselves, and 2) Monok had actually dropped the RP, and when Serc was eventually lynched.

Those who did not post in that time: Bek Okhan, Denul, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Lock (yes, me), Rikkter, and Ruse.

Of these, Bek, Rikkter, and myself all posted shortly after the 9th vote was laid down - so too late to change anything if that was the very moment that we had arrived on thread, but it is also plausible that these players were around and reading a little while before posting (I know I was, at least). Similarly, while Denul did not post after Monok dropped the RP, they had just posted a few minutes before then (and not an "I'm leaving now" type of post), so it is also reasonable to think they could have been around to see Monok's post dropping the RP.

So that leaves us with Galayn, Korabas, and Ruse. It is these three which I will be looking at tomorrow after I get some sleep.

[Korabas]

That's not a terrible idea. The only problem is that it relies on Monok being killed for irritating the thread "and nothing more". I generally think that scum would like their kills to serve a specific function. If that is the case, either Monok was a threat and on the right track, or scum want us to go after Denul. In fact, Monok's posts would have been useful to scum if only for the confusion created by his RP.

[Kessobahn]

 Korabas, on 15 April 2014 - 11:50 PM, said:

Yeah I agree. I found myself skimming his posts, ignoring most of it except for the chunks of text. At least he had fun. Any thoughts on Shadow at this point?

None at all. I was focusing on Serc and Denul because they were the only viable choices in the time remaining.

 Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 11:39 PM, said:

The paradox behind the Monty Hall problem is one of information theory. The contestant in the game makes an initial guess as to which of the three doors has the car behind it based on limited information. Then the host, who has absolute knowledge of the situation, removes one of his available options. The probability of the contestant being right first time is small, but with the new information gained from one of his options being removed, he has a higher chance if he switches his guess to a different door.


We are in an analogous situation here. We made some early guesses based on incomplete information. Now we have been given some information by PS in the form of the CFs. It is unlikely our initial suspicions were correct, so the higher percentage play is to make new guesses/cases/accusations taking into account the extra information rather than persist with our old ones.

Who is Monty Hall in this analogy?

[Okral Lom]

 Ruse, on 15 April 2014 - 10:23 PM, said:

Ouch, Ment and Gusty in one day. Rough.

Is this really all you have to say after a day in which you've been a complete non-entity?

[Bek Okhan]

 Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:57 PM, said:

Alright, here is my current thinking. The premise below is based on a complete supposition, so may be entirely inaccurate. Similarly, the narrowing down of the suspect pool is largely based on reasoning rather than evidence - but this is the track I've decided to follow for now. In any event, I do think the scenario is a plausible one - plausible enough to be worth investigating anyway.

So, the theory is: Monok was killed because of the irritating RP, and nothing more. This leads to the suspicion that the killer was not around at the time when 1) Monok started getting heat themselves, and 2) Monok had actually dropped the RP, and when Serc was eventually lynched.

Those who did not post in that time: Bek Okhan, Denul, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Lock (yes, me), Rikkter, and Ruse.

Of these, Bek, Rikkter, and myself all posted shortly after the 9th vote was laid down - so too late to change anything if that was the very moment that we had arrived on thread, but it is also plausible that these players were around and reading a little while before posting (I know I was, at least). Similarly, while Denul did not post after Monok dropped the RP, they had just posted a few minutes before then (and not an "I'm leaving now" type of post), so it is also reasonable to think they could have been around to see Monok's post dropping the RP.

So that leaves us with Galayn, Korabas, and Ruse. It is these three which I will be looking at tomorrow after I get some sleep.

Those are some pretty big assumptions. But it isn't a bad place to start, and Korabas and Ruse have already had a couple of prods in their direction.

[Okral Lom]

 Kessobahn, on 16 April 2014 - 12:19 AM, said:

 Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 11:39 PM, said:

The paradox behind the Monty Hall problem is one of information theory. The contestant in the game makes an initial guess as to which of the three doors has the car behind it based on limited information. Then the host, who has absolute knowledge of the situation, removes one of his available options. The probability of the contestant being right first time is small, but with the new information gained from one of his options being removed, he has a higher chance if he switches his guess to a different door.


We are in an analogous situation here. We made some early guesses based on incomplete information. Now we have been given some information by PS in the form of the CFs. It is unlikely our initial suspicions were correct, so the higher percentage play is to make new guesses/cases/accusations taking into account the extra information rather than persist with our old ones.

Who is Monty Hall in this analogy?

Path-Shaper. He is the host that tells us that the player behind alt number 9 (MO/GH in this case), is not the scum we were looking for.

[Okral Lom]

 Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:57 PM, said:

Alright, here is my current thinking. The premise below is based on a complete supposition, so may be entirely inaccurate. Similarly, the narrowing down of the suspect pool is largely based on reasoning rather than evidence - but this is the track I've decided to follow for now. In any event, I do think the scenario is a plausible one - plausible enough to be worth investigating anyway.

So, the theory is: Monok was killed because of the irritating RP, and nothing more. This leads to the suspicion that the killer was not around at the time when 1) Monok started getting heat themselves, and 2) Monok had actually dropped the RP, and when Serc was eventually lynched.

Those who did not post in that time: Bek Okhan, Denul, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Lock (yes, me), Rikkter, and Ruse.

Of these, Bek, Rikkter, and myself all posted shortly after the 9th vote was laid down - so too late to change anything if that was the very moment that we had arrived on thread, but it is also plausible that these players were around and reading a little while before posting (I know I was, at least). Similarly, while Denul did not post after Monok dropped the RP, they had just posted a few minutes before then (and not an "I'm leaving now" type of post), so it is also reasonable to think they could have been around to see Monok's post dropping the RP.

So that leaves us with Galayn, Korabas, and Ruse. It is these three which I will be looking at tomorrow after I get some sleep.

The thought did occur to me, although the argument is a little too meta for my tastes. But I'll look forward to seeing what you come up with .

As for myself, I agree with BO (sorry, I'm going to keep calling you that. I'm sure your armpits smell like roses in RL ) that Shadow's determination to press obviously inconsequential points seems unusual. But I'm more worried about the players who have been able to fly through the game so far without drawing any attention to themselves. I don't like it when players end up making it deep into the game without any serious questioning. For that reason, top of my list to look into is Eloth, who has made 20 posts, but made no waves at all. My impression of him before re-reading is that while he has been willing to chime in on a variety of topics, I cannot remember him holding a controversial opinion. Unfortunately my eyelids are closing of their own accord so I shall have to leave that until the morrow.

EDIT: Formatting

This post has been edited by Okral Lom: 16 April 2014 - 12:39 AM

[Ruse]

 Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 12:21 AM, said:

 Ruse, on 15 April 2014 - 10:23 PM, said:

Ouch, Ment and Gusty in one day. Rough.

Is this really all you have to say after a day in which you've been a complete non-entity?

Yep, pretty much. Sorry, work training's a bitch.

[Ruse]

 Bek Okhan, on 16 April 2014 - 12:25 AM, said:

 Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:57 PM, said:

Alright, here is my current thinking. The premise below is based on a complete supposition, so may be entirely inaccurate. Similarly, the narrowing down of the suspect pool is largely based on reasoning rather than evidence - but this is the track I've decided to follow for now. In any event, I do think the scenario is a plausible one - plausible enough to be worth investigating anyway.

So, the theory is: Monok was killed because of the irritating RP, and nothing more. This leads to the suspicion that the killer was not around at the time when 1) Monok started getting heat themselves, and 2) Monok had actually dropped the RP, and when Serc was eventually lynched.

Those who did not post in that time: Bek Okhan, Denul, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Lock (yes, me), Rikkter, and Ruse.

Of these, Bek, Rikkter, and myself all posted shortly after the 9th vote was laid down - so too late to change anything if that was the very moment that we had arrived on thread, but it is also plausible that these players were around and reading a little while before posting (I know I was, at least). Similarly, while Denul did not post after Monok dropped the RP, they had just posted a few minutes before then (and not an "I'm leaving now" type of post), so it is also reasonable to think they could have been around to see Monok's post dropping the RP.

So that leaves us with Galayn, Korabas, and Ruse. It is these three which I will be looking at tomorrow after I get some sleep.

Those are some pretty big assumptions. But it isn't a bad place to start, and Korabas and Ruse have already had a couple of prods in their direction.

Wait - couple of prods? I've seen one person prod me, but that's about it.

[Ruse]

 Korabas, on 16 April 2014 - 12:15 AM, said:

That's not a terrible idea. The only problem is that it relies on Monok being killed for irritating the thread "and nothing more". I generally think that scum would like their kills to serve a specific function. If that is the case, either Monok was a threat and on the right track, or scum want us to go after Denul. In fact, Monok's posts would have been useful to scum if only for the confusion created by his RP.

I have to agree with this. Killers rarely kill just because someone is being annoying. The annoying ones are good to keep around, there's more drama on thread that way.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2.

25 hours and 50 minutes are left.

14 players alive.
Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Lock, Okral Lom, Rikkter, Ruse, Shadow, Tiamatha

8 votes to lynch, 8 to go to night.

1 vote Shadow: Korabas

Players not voted: Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Lock, Okral Lom, Rikkter, Ruse, Shadow, Tiamatha

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 16 April 2014 - 03:39 AM

[Korabas]

I actually did vote.

[Korabas]

See below:

 Korabas, on 15 April 2014 - 11:31 PM, said:

All right. Quick correction. I mentioned Shadow falsely accused Denul of suggesting there is one killer, which I don't think he did. Shadow did go after Denul on a paired killer suggestion. I've pulled Shadow's relevant posts, as most early in the day is simply spam.

 Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 03:36 PM, said:

 Denul, on 15 April 2014 - 01:46 PM, said:

 Tiamatha, on 14 April 2014 - 02:55 PM, said:

 Rikkter, on 14 April 2014 - 02:00 PM, said:

 Okral Lom, on 14 April 2014 - 01:39 PM, said:

 Rikkter, on 14 April 2014 - 01:34 PM, said:

checking in

I was hoping for more like a 7.2 from you...that was barely a 2.9! /terrible earthquake joke

That is a terrible earthquake joke. It's so bad that it gave me tremors.

signalling?

Hey look, someone uses the phrase "terrible earthquake joke" and then someone else replies to it using the exact same phrasing, and tiam questions it as signaling! Rikkter and me must each be half of the predator Kenshiro!

Why would you suggest that there are paired killers in the game? That just seems like a slip up to me.

So here's the crux of his paired killer case against Denul, I guess. I'm not really sure where it was supposed to go.

 Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 04:43 PM, said:

After reading and rereading the thread now. The things that stand out is Denul. He was a middling poster until Alkend started to pressure Serc. Then he exploded into the scene. While there was talk about scum having more then one member there was absolutely no talk from anyone about there being paired killers until Denul brought it up. I think that was a slip up. Yes I know there are a bunch of potential sympage things going on with Serc. I like Denul for being scum.


Vote Denul

I understand and empathize with the case, weak as it was day one, on Denul based on his explosive posting after the Monok vote. Other than that though, the paired killer angle is contrived. Lock called him on this.

I'm thinking that Shadow spammed as much as he did day one to inflate his post count. When you look at what he has actually contributed, it is absolutely worthless and misleading.

vote Shadow

Did I miss something?

[Path-Shaper]

Nothing to see here.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 16 April 2014 - 03:40 AM

[Galayn Lord]

 Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 11:39 PM, said:

 Kessobahn, on 15 April 2014 - 11:27 PM, said:

 Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 09:28 PM, said:

 Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

 Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

Probably because they found his posting irritating. Although I still want to vote for Denul again today. The lynch of Serc did nothing to clear him in my mind.

Question for you Shadow - are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? Because I think it's applicable here.

How so?

The paradox behind the Monty Hall problem is one of information theory. The contestant in the game makes an initial guess as to which of the three doors has the car behind it based on limited information. Then the host, who has absolute knowledge of the situation, removes one of his available options. The probability of the contestant being right first time is small, but with the new information gained from one of his options being removed, he has a higher chance if he switches his guess to a different door.


We are in an analogous situation here. We made some early guesses based on incomplete information. Now we have been given some information by PS in the form of the CFs. It is unlikely our initial suspicions were correct, so the higher percentage play is to make new guesses/cases/accusations taking into account the extra information rather than persist with our old ones.

I saw this explained in a series once, Numbers? Its a sound logic on probability. Ironic you'd bring it up because looking at Sercs post prior to his CF brought up some interesting names, including yours.

I am in favor of looking at players trying to make a meal out of the Serc debate but also agree with Lock, the kill didn't consider developments. I was on at the time Monok started to get some pressure btw, not that I can prove it but I see exactly what he means. Honestly not too keen to make any reads on the game related to kills as those backfire fast. Locks candidate list (personal bias aside) could line up with developing cases so its worth considering.

The pressure on Serc was warranted and I hold it against no one but we need to be more critical of the train in these games, particularly how they started.

I'll have plenty of time to post after work.

before Serc got taken out he said something interesting:

 Serc, on 15 April 2014 - 05:45 PM, said:

 Galayn Lord, on 15 April 2014 - 05:25 PM, said:

 Denul, on 15 April 2014 - 03:49 PM, said:

<Snip>

We, and by we I mean the general mafia-playing populace on these forums, ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS think there should be symps in the game. Look at the last game - we day 1 lynched a scum and HE CF'D AS SCUM and we were still arguing for days afterwards that he was actually a symp, or that he was not scum at all, etc etc. And in the end, there were no symps in the game at all.

To use Serc's own example from page 2 or so, Khell's Name of the Rose game was just one lone killer against a dozen RIs, which would normally be extremely unbalanced, and the only way D'rek lasted to the end was because the town spent five striaght days arguing about really flimsy signalling cases.

I don't want to turn this into some sort of the oldies are better mafia players rant or anything, but as things are right now we spend waaaaay too much time arguing about signalling and it is almost always to the detriment of town. When you play mafia in person, you never go on huge hunts for symps, you usually just ignore them but keep your suspicions up, because that's how you get them to reach too far and give away their killer. Jumping onto every single fucking post and calling it a possible signal right away just puts the scum hackles up and they simply won't signal, will sit back and let town witchhunt themselves and come out smelling of rose-scented dicks.

Ok, Yeah for all Denuls hooting and holering this is a really sound statement for Town? Maybe the best I've heard in a couple of games despite it coming from a player I'm struggling to read. We spend too much time trying to assume scum slipped up and in doing so prevent scum doing enough to build a decent case on them.

Any of the more vocal players on here can be scum really. Thanks to town drowning out cases its a huge garbled mess, painful to read through. I had a few ideas for cases but really I'm not going to try straighten all that thread spaghetti. Again I say how about we keep it focused?

Occams Razor has proven invaluable day 1. Simple cases work out. Serc has such a simple case on him. I'd like to address that.

Serc: I want to hear what you thinks about players accusing you. There was that odd speculation that only one Scum existed, based off the OP? I suggested the FotNS lore proved otherwise but also Denul engaged you directly and "corrected" you making his own conclusions from the OP.

I recall your speculation was intended to get scum onto you, exposing themselves? for me, this is a poor excuse for poor posting but giving you the benefit of a doubt Has any such player in your opinion showed up?

Who exactly fits that bill in your opinion?

My vote on you relies on a reply proving your methods, without one, bad speculation is costing town dearly. It led up to all 4 pages of cross arguments. I want to know if it had any substance. you're our best lynch if it didn't.

<snip>

As for "me attracting scum to myself"-that is a motive that was attributed to me, one that I denied. I was honest-my motive for that post was Day 1 Monday laziness, and basically asking someone who read the wiki provided to point out if there are any "scum"-sounding roles in the FotNS lore.

I think this bit was really odd? Don't know why but I recall it as coming from serc directly. Who inferred that maybe serc was trying to attract scum to himself? I forget and cant seem to locate it. whomever it was may have intentionally been making a mountain out of a mole hill.

[Bek Okhan]

I don't know about the 'attracting scum' part of Serc's case, but the first people to suggest that Serc's comment may have been fishing for information were Okral and Korabas.

 Okral Lom, on 14 April 2014 - 04:57 PM, said:

In any case, since people are trying to be serious, I'll chime in on the Serc thing. Seems to me that there are going to be a lot of artifacts in the game design that refer back to how this game could be run as a factions game. In that set up, I could well imagine Kenshiro as some kind of lone warrior/serial killer type. But in a town vs scum game it only takes a second of thought about the game design to see that the scum team must have more than one player.

My guess is that Serc is fishing for role information by posting something obviously wrong and waiting to see who corrects him. Whether that's a townie looking for scum, a symp looking for roled innos or Kenshiro looking for symps, I don't know...

 Korabas, on 14 April 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

Checking in. I apparently missed the spam part of day 1. Not too bothered really.

There might be something to the Serc situation. After one of you picks at Serc's wording with regards to the Kenshiro's role, and possibly looking for symps, serc posts:

 Serc, on 14 April 2014 - 05:00 PM, said:

 Denul, on 14 April 2014 - 03:54 PM, said:

Her name is Yuri and she looks like this:

Spoiler

I love RA2 so much. the Soviet briefing chick was hawt.

Now this might be the most blatant signalling to Denul. I find it rather more likely, as one of you mentioned, that the obvious question posed by serc is probably an attempt to draw out some kind of reaction and stir the pot a bit. Serc's worth watching, but not really worth a vote at this point. Too early day 1, too thin of a case.

Also, that game was great.

Interestingly, it is this post that pushes OL to vote for Korabas:

 Okral Lom, on 14 April 2014 - 10:07 PM, said:

 Korabas, on 14 April 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

Checking in. I apparently missed the spam part of day 1. Not too bothered really.

There might be something to the Serc situation. After one of you picks at Serc's wording with regards to the Kenshiro's role, and possibly looking for symps, serc posts:

 Serc, on 14 April 2014 - 05:00 PM, said:

I love RA2 so much. the Soviet briefing chick was hawt.

Now this might be the most blatant signalling to Denul. I find it rather more likely, as one of you mentioned, that the obvious question posed by serc is probably an attempt to draw out some kind of reaction and stir the pot a bit. Serc's worth watching, but not really worth a vote at this point. Too early day 1, too thin of a case.

Also, that game was great.

First you pick out a Serc post that expresses his appreciation for RA2, and you claim that by doing so he is signalling. OK, fair enough that does at least seem plausible.

But then, you proceed to do exactly what Serc just did (talk about how much you liked RA2), having just made the point that doing that implies signalling. It feels as though you were subtly trying to imply that you are a symp: look at me, I just did this behaviour that I claim means I'm signalling!

I think maybe you were trying to catch someone's attention. It could be anyone - possibly Denul (since he made the original RA2 reference), possibly just someone else in the crowd. Since I'm not sure who, I think I'll just get the ball rolling with a vote on you.

Vote Korabas

Which suggests that there is some kind of connection there, but stuffed if I if it is even relevant.

[Tiamatha]

morning. Catching up

[Tiamatha]

first off night kill speculation:

Lock(?) is suggesting MO (gusty) has been killed because he was irritating. Surely this is absolute nonsense, if anything MO being annoying would be a dead cert for survival, many players (myself included) expressed frustration over his posting style and anything that annoys us is good for the scum. At some stage I probably would have voted for him to make him stop that shit.

A far more likely set of options are: despite his infuriating posting style MO was contributing actively and regardless of how accurate his finger pointing may be once he dropped the librarian schtick he was a lucid reasoned poster, which spells trouble for scum in later stages. Second option is pure meta, he could have been alted, and lets face it, if you're scum you don't want Gusty around, he can be uncanny at times with his scum hunting.

anything outside this is wifom, infact even that is wifom, was his kill a frame job? Was it pre-emptive? Was it a 'shut him up before he really.gets the bit between his teeth?

we don't know, we WON'T know until spoiler heaven, and basing todays actions on speculation over scums logic is as useful as putting a handbrake on a canoe.



So , beyond that, I'm still interested in Denul, he's been too helpful, too reactionary and, as gust predicted, his name has faded into the mist today. I voted Serc to get a lynch and a CF, but its by no means the lynch I wanted to see

[Ampelas]

 Tiamatha, on 16 April 2014 - 06:35 AM, said:

first off night kill speculation:

Lock(?) is suggesting MO (gusty) has been killed because he was irritating. Surely this is absolute nonsense, if anything MO being annoying would be a dead cert for survival, many players (myself included) expressed frustration over his posting style and anything that annoys us is good for the scum. At some stage I probably would have voted for him to make him stop that shit.

A far more likely set of options are: despite his infuriating posting style MO was contributing actively and regardless of how accurate his finger pointing may be once he dropped the librarian schtick he was a lucid reasoned poster, which spells trouble for scum in later stages. Second option is pure meta, he could have been alted, and lets face it, if you're scum you don't want Gusty around, he can be uncanny at times with his scum hunting.

anything outside this is wifom, infact even that is wifom, was his kill a frame job? Was it pre-emptive? Was it a 'shut him up before he really.gets the bit between his teeth?

we don't know, we WON'T know until spoiler heaven, and basing todays actions on speculation over scums logic is as useful as putting a handbrake on a canoe.



So , beyond that, I'm still interested in Denul, he's been too helpful, too reactionary and, as gust predicted, his name has faded into the mist today. I voted Serc to get a lynch and a CF, but its by no means the lynch I wanted to see

So you're saying go with MO on the basis that MO tagged him?

[Tiamatha]

not in the slightest Amp, I'm saying I wasn't a proponent of a serc lynch yesterday, I was after Denul, gusts prediction of interest fade just seems to be coming true, which I don't like, someone who garnered that much heat one day shouldn't simply fade to black the next