[Path-Shaper]

(Please ignore the typical apocalypse convention of vehicles being used, without answering the question "where do they get their gasoline? )

The welcoming party turned out to be a small scouting party on ATV's. Surrounding Kenshiro, an argument ensued as to whether they should kill him and bring his body to their captain, kill him and bring the captain to the body, bring him to the captain and THEN kill him, or as one bright one suggested, kill him, take the body to the captain, and then kill him again. Meanwhile, another member of the party was bouncing about making suggestions and punctuating his ideas with ape-like "Oook Eeek's". It appeared that the others were used to this, and ignored him.

Kenshiro simply walked up to Oook Eeek and plunged both thumbs into either side of his neck. When the goon's head exploded, the others decided that the argument was over and they split.

Kenshiro walked unmolested into the city.


Day One is Over

16 players alive.
Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Lock, Okral Lom, Monok Ochem, Rikkter, Ruse, Serc, Shadow, Tiamatha

9 votes to lynch, 8 to go to night.


3 votes Denul: Monok Ochem, Bek Okhan, Shadow
9 votes Serc: Alkend, Korabas, Lock, Denul, Galayn Lord, Okral Lom, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Eloth
1 vote Okral Lom: Serc

Players not voted: Kessobahn, Rikkter, Ruse,


Serc has been lynched. He was Mentalist, and RI.

Monok Ochem is dead. He was Gust Hubb and RI

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 15 April 2014 - 10:09 PM

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2.

14 players alive.
Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Lock, Okral Lom, Rikkter, Ruse, Shadow, Tiamatha

8 votes to lynch, 8 to go to night.

No one has voted.

[Tiamatha]

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

[Tiamatha]

Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

*and no mistake

[Shadow]

Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

Probably because they found his posting irritating. Although I still want to vote for Denul again today. The lynch of Serc did nothing to clear him in my mind.

[Okral Lom]

Interesting. Maybe someone got annoyed at his posting style or something? I'm a little surprised, because it seemed as though MO was about to come under some heat. I guess we'll just have to live without his Librarian impersonation from now on (judging by the complaints of everyone doing catch-up, he won't be missed).

[Tiamatha]

I'm going tl bed here soon but will.probably be going over the train in the morning. Denul was 4th on it but it was the only viable train apart from his own so his presence there likely means nowt in the grand scheme of things, my vote on him wasn't realted to his vote on serc anyway.

but good night for now

[Okral Lom]

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

Probably because they found his posting irritating. Although I still want to vote for Denul again today. The lynch of Serc did nothing to clear him in my mind.

Question for you Shadow - are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? Because I think it's applicable here.

[Path-Shaper]

Scene has been added. There are no clues in scenes.

[Ruse]

Path-Shaper, on 15 April 2014 - 09:11 PM, said:

(Please ignore the typical apocalypse convention of vehicles being used, without answering the question "where do they get their gasoline? )

The welcoming party turned out to be a small scouting party on ATV's. Surrounding Kenshiro, an argument ensued as to whether they should kill him and bring his body to their captain, kill him and bring the captain to the body, bring him to the captain and THEN kill him, or as one bright one suggested, kill him, take the body to the captain, and then kill him again. Meanwhile, another member of the party was bouncing about making suggestions and punctuating his ideas with ape-like "Oook Eeek's". It appeared that the others were used to this, and ignored him.

Kenshiro simply walked up to Oook Eeek and plunged both thumbs into either side of his neck. When the goon's head exploded, the others decided that the argument was over and they split.

Kenshiro walked unmolested into the city.


Day One is Over

16 players alive.
Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Lock, Okral Lom, Monok Ochem, Rikkter, Ruse, Serc, Shadow, Tiamatha

9 votes to lynch, 8 to go to night.


3 votes Denul: Monok Ochem, Bek Okhan, Shadow
9 votes Serc: Alkend, Korabas, Lock, Denul, Galayn Lord, Okral Lom, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Eloth
1 vote Okral Lom: Serc

Players not voted: Kessobahn, Rikkter, Ruse,


Serc has been lynched. He was Mentalist, and RI.

Monok Ochem is dead. He was Gust Hubb and RI

Ouch, Ment and Gusty in one day. Rough.

[Bek Okhan]

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

Probably because they found his posting irritating. Although I still want to vote for Denul again today. The lynch of Serc did nothing to clear him in my mind.

Really? While the cases we saw yesterday were fairly normal for day one, they were definitely one cases. I didn't think either of them were worth following into today, where we'll just be rehashing what already been said. Is it because Denul escaped a lynch, or because you think that yesterday's case is still valid, that you want to pursue this?

[Bek Okhan]

Hello? Anyone there? I need help being distracted in class...

[Okral Lom]

Bek Okhan, on 15 April 2014 - 10:59 PM, said:

Hello? Anyone there? I need help being distracted in class...

I'm here but busy with other things. Will try to post some thoughts before I go to bed though. In the meantime, who would you say are your top three suspects?

[Korabas]

I just caught up. That's a rough conclusion to day one, to say the least. I pulled some quotes as I caught up.

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 04:43 PM, said:

After reading and rereading the thread now. The things that stand out is Denul. He was a middling poster until Alkend started to pressure Serc. Then he exploded into the scene. While there was talk about scum having more then one member there was absolutely no talk from anyone about there being paired killers until Denul brought it up. I think that was a slip up. Yes I know there are a bunch of potential sympage things going on with Serc. I like Denul for being scum.


Vote Denul

Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 05:11 PM, said:

Shadow, you are either not reading the thread as clearly as you might think you are (and your comment on 'some potential symp linkages' suggests that you aren't), or you're wilfully placing a post out of context. Personally, it seems pretty clear to me that that was a non-serious comment. We don't need more things like this muddying up the thread even further.



Edit: Changed 'haven't' to 'aren't'.

Glad to see someone call Shadow on that nonsense. I think it was Shadow too suggesting that Denul was the first to claim that there was only one scum, which is blatantly false. Pretty sure that got cleared up on thread though, but it still bothered me some. I'll start watching shadow a bit more from now on. Not to mention he's still going after Denul for some reason.

Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 07:32 PM, said:

Alright, I've had a thread read and had a think, and unfortunately it's looking like a Denul or Serc lynch today. I don't think either of them rate out as any more than an average candidate (by which I mean essentially they've suffered from the luck of the draw).

That being said, they've been discussed to death and that discussion is not particularly interesting, so I'm going to point out a few things about some of the other players instead.

I'll start off with the player who interests me most at the moment: Monoch Ochem (henceforth MO). And that's not just for the Librarian RP.

I made an (admittedly weak) case on Korabas, and was immediately met by two responses from someone other than Korabas (which seemed surprising). There was a query about my logic from Bek Okhan (henceforth BO) and a surprisingly vigorous rubbishing from Monoch Ochem (henceforth MO). BO's interest seemed legit, but MO put quite a bit of time into attempting to disparage all those associated with the case:

Here he is initially (I've snipped the flavour text and the pictures for clarity) implying that the aggressive players (at that point myself and Tiamatha) are over-stepping their bounds:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 01:35 AM, said:

What the Librarian is trying to say is that the response to the vote on Master Korabas was a little sudden and aggressive. The Librarian is not so sure that at this stage of Day 1 "antics" such a case should garner such heat.
:
Now Librarian, I also thought that Master Tiamatha also seemed particularly aggressive as well...
:
What I'm saying is that Master Tiamatha seems to be jumping the musket, so to speak.

And again trying to sow suspicion on those who hold any weight in my case on Korabas:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 04:34 AM, said:

Now, what he wanted to express is that from the history of past games, signalling cases are kind of in a hang up, so to speak. They can't be discounted because of a couple of games back, but given that bloke Tatt's show last game, we all have to be wary. Now, seems to me, and the Librarian, that there is two sides to this coin, so to speak. We got a group really looking mean and hard into that Serc fellow, but harder in to his so called "symp" Korabas, or maybe that was Denul being the ringleader, I'm already getting turned around.
:
But here's the thing gentlemen: that Korabas fellow puts a little too much weightiness on the Serc "situation" to be trying to interrupt the show. The lack of conviction in that wishy-washy post itself is the problem, and I'll bet bananas to peanuts that the people playing up that post are more trouble than the guy posting the post himself.
:
So the question I have is why are we arsing about spending so much bloody time or Korabas when if he's the so-called symp, we ought to be focusing on Serc! I think this is all smoke and mirrors, and really, we ought to be testing by stringing up that Serc fellow, or maybe one of the supposedly upright citizens trying so valiantly to make a case on them!

So that's two posts devoted to making sure that the Korabas case is buried. In the process of doing so, he finds himself saying we should lynch Serc instead, despite previously making disparaging comments about the motives of Tiamatha in starting the case in the first place.

Then we come to his case on Denul. It seems to consist wholly of the over-aggressive clutching at straws Tiamatha and myself employed earlier. Here is the text of his argument - again I have snipped out the RP and the quoted posts themselves, which he doesn't analyze properly:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 04:52 AM, said:

Master Denul announced himself in the standard, provocative manner. Interestingly enough, as the Librarian pointed out, this manner quickly degenerates into base tomfoolery, making light of the last game's fake signalling, and a humorous switchero with a male picture where there ought to have been a more, er, beautiful lady. The quote (third below in the amazing MultiQuote device) that bothered him and myself the most was a comment about absence, not reading the OP, and speculation on a "symp" girlfriend. Quite the post for someone seemingly unengaged. Then Master Serc seems to "signal" closely followed by Master Korabas, and then it all just falls apart from there. But it comes back to Master Denul, don't you see? Master Denul's seemingly simple and easy going posts seems flippant, maybe even elusive, especially in context.
:
(QUOTED POSTS)
:
Vote Denul.

Now, let's get to the meat of that case...oh wait, there isn't any. An inconsistency in seriousness between posts is possibly the flimsiest argument constructed this year.

So basically MO's play last night was an inconsistent mess that he hid behind his posting style. He was very strongly trying to rebut and discredit arguments against another player (Korabas) by dismissing others as aggressive, but then turned around and posted one of the most powderpuff cases in the history of powderpuff cases! And somehow it worked.

So MO and by extension Korabas are the players I find the most suspicious at this point and I will be looking at them with a fine-tooth comb tomorrow.

I'll be honest. Monok's case felt good to me. Not necessarily because of any concrete, on-thread, evidence, but mostly because he knew the game well and proposed a case based on observed behaviour that he has probably seen in many other games. In my opinion, that kind of case was a bit premature.

Now he's dead. If Denul is scum, then he took out a threat. I think we can all agree that would be an incredibly obvious move, and any decent scum would probably not go after the thread directly like that day one. So I'm left feeling that scum might be setting up Denul in their own obvious fashion. I have to go over Denul's posts again to get a better picture, because I'm fucking confusing myself here.

It might be worth looking into some of the low posters at this point too.

I'll pop in and out over the next couple hours for discussion.

[Bek Okhan]

Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 11:10 PM, said:

Bek Okhan, on 15 April 2014 - 10:59 PM, said:

Hello? Anyone there? I need help being distracted in class...

I'm here but busy with other things. Will try to post some thoughts before I go to bed though. In the meantime, who would you say are your top three suspects?

Shadow is making me uncomfortable, with his constant misreading yesterday and then his desire to push yesterday's cases again today.

Ruse is problematic for me, with a complete lack of anything useful. Though I find it difficult to believe that scum would so blatantly disinterested, there precedent for it.

Those are my two main suspects at the moment, but I need a re read.

I'm interested in how many people want to continue with yesterday's cases linking Denul and Korabas and Serc, and why.

[Kessobahn]

Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 09:28 PM, said:

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

Probably because they found his posting irritating. Although I still want to vote for Denul again today. The lynch of Serc did nothing to clear him in my mind.

Question for you Shadow - are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? Because I think it's applicable here.

How so?

[Korabas]

All right. Quick correction. I mentioned Shadow falsely accused Denul of suggesting there is one killer, which I don't think he did. Shadow did go after Denul on a paired killer suggestion. I've pulled Shadow's relevant posts, as most early in the day is simply spam.

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 03:36 PM, said:

Denul, on 15 April 2014 - 01:46 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 14 April 2014 - 02:55 PM, said:

Rikkter, on 14 April 2014 - 02:00 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 14 April 2014 - 01:39 PM, said:

Rikkter, on 14 April 2014 - 01:34 PM, said:

checking in

I was hoping for more like a 7.2 from you...that was barely a 2.9! /terrible earthquake joke

That is a terrible earthquake joke. It's so bad that it gave me tremors.

signalling?

Hey look, someone uses the phrase "terrible earthquake joke" and then someone else replies to it using the exact same phrasing, and tiam questions it as signaling! Rikkter and me must each be half of the predator Kenshiro!

Why would you suggest that there are paired killers in the game? That just seems like a slip up to me.

So here's the crux of his paired killer case against Denul, I guess. I'm not really sure where it was supposed to go.

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 04:43 PM, said:

After reading and rereading the thread now. The things that stand out is Denul. He was a middling poster until Alkend started to pressure Serc. Then he exploded into the scene. While there was talk about scum having more then one member there was absolutely no talk from anyone about there being paired killers until Denul brought it up. I think that was a slip up. Yes I know there are a bunch of potential sympage things going on with Serc. I like Denul for being scum.


Vote Denul

I understand and empathize with the case, weak as it was day one, on Denul based on his explosive posting after the Monok vote. Other than that though, the paired killer angle is contrived. Lock called him on this.

I'm thinking that Shadow spammed as much as he did day one to inflate his post count. When you look at what he has actually contributed, it is absolutely worthless and misleading.

vote Shadow

[Kessobahn]

Korabas, on 15 April 2014 - 11:12 PM, said:

<snip>

I'll be honest. Monok's case felt good to me. Not necessarily because of any concrete, on-thread, evidence, but mostly because he knew the game well and proposed a case based on observed behaviour that he has probably seen in many other games. In my opinion, that kind of case was a bit premature.

Now he's dead. If Denul is scum, then he took out a threat. I think we can all agree that would be an incredibly obvious move, and any decent scum would probably not go after the thread directly like that day one. So I'm left feeling that scum might be setting up Denul in their own obvious fashion. I have to go over Denul's posts again to get a better picture, because I'm fucking confusing myself here.

It might be worth looking into some of the low posters at this point too.

I'll pop in and out over the next couple hours for discussion.

Bek Okhan, on 15 April 2014 - 11:25 PM, said:

<snip>

Shadow is making me uncomfortable, with his constant misreading yesterday and then his desire to push yesterday's cases again today.

Ruse is problematic for me, with a complete lack of anything useful. Though I find it difficult to believe that scum would so blatantly disinterested, there precedent for it.

Those are my two main suspects at the moment, but I need a re read.

I'm interested in how many people want to continue with yesterday's cases linking Denul and Korabas and Serc, and why.

I didn't have much time to devote to catching up before the lynch, but I did feel that Denul was scummy a bit. His multi-post defense was good but as it went along I got the feeling that he was protesting a bit too much.


I skipped over quite a bit of MO's Pratchett shit. But now I'll have to go back and look at it again. This post is thought provoking:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 08:10 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 15 April 2014 - 07:41 PM, said:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 06:39 PM, said:

NARRATOR: (COMING OUT OF CHARACTER) META IS NOT ALLOWED IN MAFIA GAMES OF RANDOMLY-ALTED DESIGN. ATTEMPTING TO DERAIL AND/OR THROW ASPERSION ON A CASE DUE TO META IS REPREHENSIBLE AND AT MINIMUM POOR FORM. IF YOU SUSPECT THIS CASE TO BE ANYTHING BUT IN ERNEST, TAKE IT UP WITH PATHSHAPER IN YOUR PM'S, NOT ON THREAD.

Noted.

Not at all derailing. Simply saying I wish to be certain of Denul. Several things about my read of him seem odd.

Will take it up with PS off-thread.

I already stated when I voted Serc that I'm happier moving on if its possible to remove doubt and find a more definate case. Are you ok leaving Serc be? personally I get nothing concrete from a Denul CF without a lynch to review but I am in no way opposed to it. It makes alot of sense, my gut is the only thing holding me back.

Sercs CF may offer more info about players outside the Denul, Serc duo. Both Serc and denul have said things that contradict each other and contradict themselves. If theres a link I'm seeing Serc as the less threatening but more pivotal player? If you see this as a defence of Denul then you are mistaken. I'd rather deal with Denul Day 2 rather than deal with Serc day 2 purely based on confusion around Denuls content vs the simplicity of Sercs.

I personally thought Serc was a distraction. Here's the thing: what bothered me early on was how a case was building on Serc for symping, despite the well-known adage "lynch the master not the symp." I was similarly surprised that nothing had been said about Denul, and endeavored to make a case. Unfortunately, Denul plays like most do, townie through and through, with many elements we've come to see and love about those we think we can trust. Most telling, however, was how viciously Deul reacted to the accusations and the the subsequent biting sarcasms, pointing out "oh look signalling! oh look more signalling" and then making the bipolar switch to being helpful. And Denul has definitely seemed helpful, doing rereads, posting vote counts, keeping track of how long of the day is left. Townie, right?

As for Korabas, Korabas was a poorly done symp case, trying to lend weight behind the burgeoning case on Serc. The reason I felt suspicious of this case was that it addressed Serc without even acknowledging Denul's attachment to that group. And then we spend today piling up on Serc, who is being called a symp, still, and expecting Denul to be cleared? That just doesn't make any sense to me. So I think, really, there is a lot of deflection and scrambling going on, and that even if Serc is a symp, we will gain nothing from lynching him. Instead, Denul will just have that much more "told you so" and will disappear into the post lynch haze of day 2.

I wish he had spent more time writing like that instead of behind irrelevant RP.

[Okral Lom]

Kessobahn, on 15 April 2014 - 11:27 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 09:28 PM, said:

Shadow, on 15 April 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 15 April 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

fuck that's a double whammy and mistake.

Don't want to stray into wifom this early in the day, I suck at alting but could killer(s?) have pinged gust and thought he had to go cause he's bloody good or was he on a right track.

Probably because they found his posting irritating. Although I still want to vote for Denul again today. The lynch of Serc did nothing to clear him in my mind.

Question for you Shadow - are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? Because I think it's applicable here.

How so?

The paradox behind the Monty Hall problem is one of information theory. The contestant in the game makes an initial guess as to which of the three doors has the car behind it based on limited information. Then the host, who has absolute knowledge of the situation, removes one of his available options. The probability of the contestant being right first time is small, but with the new information gained from one of his options being removed, he has a higher chance if he switches his guess to a different door.


We are in an analogous situation here. We made some early guesses based on incomplete information. Now we have been given some information by PS in the form of the CFs. It is unlikely our initial suspicions were correct, so the higher percentage play is to make new guesses/cases/accusations taking into account the extra information rather than persist with our old ones.

[Korabas]

Kessobahn, on 15 April 2014 - 11:38 PM, said:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 08:10 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 15 April 2014 - 07:41 PM, said:

Monok Ochem, on 15 April 2014 - 06:39 PM, said:

NARRATOR: (COMING OUT OF CHARACTER) META IS NOT ALLOWED IN MAFIA GAMES OF RANDOMLY-ALTED DESIGN. ATTEMPTING TO DERAIL AND/OR THROW ASPERSION ON A CASE DUE TO META IS REPREHENSIBLE AND AT MINIMUM POOR FORM. IF YOU SUSPECT THIS CASE TO BE ANYTHING BUT IN ERNEST, TAKE IT UP WITH PATHSHAPER IN YOUR PM'S, NOT ON THREAD.

Noted.

Not at all derailing. Simply saying I wish to be certain of Denul. Several things about my read of him seem odd.

Will take it up with PS off-thread.

I already stated when I voted Serc that I'm happier moving on if its possible to remove doubt and find a more definate case. Are you ok leaving Serc be? personally I get nothing concrete from a Denul CF without a lynch to review but I am in no way opposed to it. It makes alot of sense, my gut is the only thing holding me back.

Sercs CF may offer more info about players outside the Denul, Serc duo. Both Serc and denul have said things that contradict each other and contradict themselves. If theres a link I'm seeing Serc as the less threatening but more pivotal player? If you see this as a defence of Denul then you are mistaken. I'd rather deal with Denul Day 2 rather than deal with Serc day 2 purely based on confusion around Denuls content vs the simplicity of Sercs.

I personally thought Serc was a distraction. Here's the thing: what bothered me early on was how a case was building on Serc for symping, despite the well-known adage "lynch the master not the symp." I was similarly surprised that nothing had been said about Denul, and endeavored to make a case. Unfortunately, Denul plays like most do, townie through and through, with many elements we've come to see and love about those we think we can trust. Most telling, however, was how viciously Deul reacted to the accusations and the the subsequent biting sarcasms, pointing out "oh look signalling! oh look more signalling" and then making the bipolar switch to being helpful. And Denul has definitely seemed helpful, doing rereads, posting vote counts, keeping track of how long of the day is left. Townie, right?

As for Korabas, Korabas was a poorly done symp case, trying to lend weight behind the burgeoning case on Serc. The reason I felt suspicious of this case was that it addressed Serc without even acknowledging Denul's attachment to that group. And then we spend today piling up on Serc, who is being called a symp, still, and expecting Denul to be cleared? That just doesn't make any sense to me. So I think, really, there is a lot of deflection and scrambling going on, and that even if Serc is a symp, we will gain nothing from lynching him. Instead, Denul will just have that much more "told you so" and will disappear into the post lynch haze of day 2.

I wish he had spent more time writing like that instead of behind irrelevant RP.

Yeah I agree. I found myself skimming his posts, ignoring most of it except for the chunks of text. At least he had fun. Any thoughts on Shadow at this point?