[Werthead]

Poland has said that if Putin's aircraft tries to enter Polish airspace, it will have to land.

Ukraine has launched a significant cruise missile attack on Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts, with multiple missiles engaged by Russian air defences. Some reports of additional cruise missile and drone strikes on Crimea.

Ukraine has finally retaken Kucheriv Yar, at the tip of the Dobropillia salient. In the final engagement, over fifty Russian soldiers agreed to finally surrender having been cut off from supplies and reinforcements for over a month. Some Russians tried to break out to the east, but it appears they were unable to penetrate Ukrainian lines. The final casualty toll here is expected to be very heavy for the Russians. It also frees up the Ukrainian units grinding them down for deployment elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia are reporting fuel shortages after expected deliveries from Russia failed to arrive. Apparently both countries, and others, have been asking Russia for a while on the reliability of supplies and if they should be taking precautions, and Russia told them everything was fine. Not so much. Kyrgyzstan is supposed to have a month's fuel supply in storage at any one time, which has turned out to be...incorrect.

Kyrgyzstan is still sore at Russia after Russia failed to answer its CSTO obligations to help defend Kyrgyzstan when it was attacked by Tajikistan in 2022 (though Tajikistan maintains it was attacked first, though that's not hugely believed), and had expressed some displeasure with Russia for this.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 October 2025 - 10:29 PM

[Mentalist]

trump sanctioned RosNeft and LukOil. Apparently, he's getting tired from putler refusing to accept a very advantageous ceasefire.

EU to approve 19th sanctions package tomorrow. Should hit more banks and shadow fleet vessels, as well as some Chinese and Indian oil importers.
-more importantly, the EU might be close to a breakthrough in approving the "loan using the frozen assets as collateral" scheme. Which would be huge, b/c that would basically cover UA's budget for the next 2 years, giving it some much-needed stability.

UAF hit another chemical plant, this one's in the suburbs of Chelyabinsk (The Urals, muscovy's industrial heartland). This recent set of strikes is targeting the components of both the explosives and fertilizers production chains.

Zelensky was in Sweden today, and signed a letter of intent to buy 150 Gripen fighters, to have them form the core of UA's air force. Eventually, since the first planes won't be produced until 2028, at the earliest.
Big news and all, but I have some concerns as to where the money for these is gonna come from. Again, though: long term agreements are ensuring some stability, which is obviously nice.

[Tiste Simeon]

Here's further on the frozen assets and why it's not as straightforward as "just use the Russian money to give it to Ukraine"

BBC News - EU set to endorse deal to turn frozen Russian assets into support for Ukraine
https://www.bbc.com/...es/cwykd4l3dy1o

[Werthead]

Two Russian aircraft violated Lithuanian airspace for 18 seconds before retreating to Kaliningrad airspace. Typhoons are patrolling the area.

The large Plastmas ammunition factory in Chelyabinsk took a heavy drone hit, with a large part of one of the main buildings destroyed.

A Russian Pantsir anti-air battery outside Moscow opened fire, it's not clear at what. The booster stage from the missile fell through the roof of a civilian bus on the streets of Moscow, causing panic. It does not appear anyone was injured.

The Caucasus Liberation Movement has assassinated three Russian paratroopers in Stavropol. The Movement is a partisan force largely recruiting from Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia, with both local funding and support, and some from Ukraine. The CLM has been coordinating strikes in their own territories and on Russian home soil in conjunction with Ukrainian intelligence.

Despite Chinese government claims of full support for buying Russian oil, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinochem have apparently suspended all purchases of Russian oil for at least a few weeks until the threat of American secondary sanctions becomes clearer. It might be that Russia also does not have enough supplies for deliveries as normal, so the move also eases supply issues in Russia.

Some claims that the recent Tomahawk discussions might be clearing the way for German sales of Taurus, a considerably less capable, but still significant, weapon. I'll believe that when I see it.

The Ryazan oil refinery took another big hit overnight.

Repeated attacks on Belgorod have again plunged the city into darkness for large parts of this week.

The USA's new sanctions on Russian oil are marginal, but they may have a big impact on Indian oil imports from Russia, possibly eliminating them altogether.

[Tiste Simeon]

I'm seeing reports that Ukraine has hit a major part of the energy infrastructure in Russia.

https://euromaidanpr...ort-2025-10-23/

[Werthead]

There's been some stories circulating on Russian Telegram gaining more traction. Russian recruits are refusing to fight, especially after some were promised jobs in behind-the-lines logistics or drone units and were instead sent to the front with no training. Russian units on the front have recently gone into battle with only one magazine, sometimes between two or three men, and a mishmash of body armour (some Russian troops don't even seem to care, reasoning they'll be killed by a drone hit anyway). One wild report suggested regular shootings inside barracks, either of troops refusing to fight, or troops shooting themselves (or their friends!) and pretending they were injured on the battlefield. Any Russia soldier returning from combat wounded has to give extensive explanations for how they sustained the injury and where, and by preference corroborated by drones or fellow troops, to make sure they didn't deliberately get injured to leave the front. At the vaguest suspicion they're lying, they are sometimes denied medical help and forced to return to combat.

Some advances, even successful ones, have been thrown into disarray and then defeated as soldiers started looting their own fallen comrades or fallen enemies or equipment. Some Russian troops have been captured or killed and shown to be carrying WWII-era weapons and equipment.

The Russian NCO officer corps has been famously barely-existent for decades, and attempts during this war to expand it have gained little traction. Ukraine has cited the existence of a strong NCO culture, modelled after NATO countries, as one of the biggest reasons for their successes in the war (and some units and formations which were slow to adopt it paid a price).

Russian logistics are now in a grim state, with weapons, fuel and even food storage hubs now many kilometres behind the front, sometimes 20+ km back. Russian logistics personnel have to then do a suicide run the last few kilometres to reach units on the front. Their anti-drone defences are almost wholly ineffective. Some logistics personnel have dumped their cargoes rather than go anywhere near the front, and can barely tell apart Russian and Ukrainian drones flying overhead.

Current estimate is that Russia has lost 32,681 trucks, tankers and cargo vehicles this year, more than 2022-24 combined.

We knew the state of the Russian army to be bad, but it might be far worse than expected. The puzzlingly awful performance of the Russian units on the Pokrovsk front, despite the presence of multiple experienced, veteran formations, could be down to many of those units running low on manpower, with the few remaining effective soldiers padded out by hordes of untrained new recruits.

Although these problems are grim, systemic and getting worse, it's also unclear if things could reach a boiling point quickly enough to help Ukraine. Very slow, grinding advances continue.

Ukraine and the UK have co-designed the OCTOPUS interceptor drone, designed to counter aerial threats at a very cheap cost. Thousands will be made monthly in the UK and delivered to Ukraine. The UK's weapons production factories are also spooling up faster than anticipated, with over 140 light air defence missiles already on their way to Ukraine months ahead of schedule.

Zelensky has spoken to Merz about "specific requests." I'm going to hazard a guess these begin with T and end with S.

Russia has apparently undertaken a low-key reserve callup. These reserves will be deployed to try to defend refineries and energy hubs rather than be deployed on the front line.

The Ryazan crude processing unit has been offline for two days as a result of Ukrainian strikes.

Russian weapons teams have apparently been buying Chinese SW800Pro-Y turbojet engines and strapping them to UMPB-5R glide bombs. The engines are openly available online for $45K a pop.

Ukraine has retaken the village of Torske in the Lyman sector. Over a hundred Russian troops were killed or captured in the final attack. The Russian forces had little ammo, no food and only rainwater.

Russia launched a pointless MLRS attack on civilian parts of Kherson city, killing 2 and wounding 22.

Heavy fighting in the Sumy salient is continuing. Ukrainian forces have been trying to push northwards from Oleksiivka, supported by artillery.

France will deliver new Mirage 2000 aircraft and Aster missiles to Ukraine this week.

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 24 October 2025 - 07:45 PM, said:

There's been some stories circulating on Russian Telegram gaining more traction. Russian recruits are refusing to fight, especially after some were promised jobs in behind-the-lines logistics or drone units and were instead sent to the front with no training.

...

Russia has apparently undertaken a low-key reserve callup. These reserves will be deployed to try to defend refineries and energy hubs rather than be deployed on the front line.

Suuuuuuuuuuuure.

[Werthead]

A dam in Belgorod Oblast has taken a series of hits, resulting in the Siverskyi Donets river rising fast. This has cut off Russian units in Vovchansk, northern Kharkiv Oblast, from reinforcement and resupply. Ukraine has been trying to force the Russians out of Vovchansk for well over a year and now has a good chance of doing that, collapsing the northern Kharkiv occupation area.

A systemic sabotage campaign by Russian partisans has disabled or destroyed hundreds of railway electrical panels, power conduits and switching infrastructure over the past year or so.

Serbia has offered to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine, on the basis of full territorial recognition of Ukraine as per the UN. Presumably Russia will reject that out of hand.

Russia has turned its sights on Ukraine's...coffee infrastructure? They damaged the warehouse of Ukraine's largest coffee company. Whilst many Ukrainian civilians and soldiers make extensive use of coffee, I'm not sure of the immediate utility of this strike.

According to Polish sources, Ukrainian economic and defence analysts have told them that Ukraine believes it can sustain the war effort at the current tempo for another three years if needed. They're not convinced Russia can do the same.

Russian forces have succeeded in breaching Pokrovsk's southern urban zone, and some reconnaissance groups may have made it further in towards the centre. Whilst Ukraine regained ground around the north-eastern edge of the city, Russia was able to push north from Shevchenko (after about a year of trying) and get a toehold in the southern urban zone. The Ukrainians seem to be weighing the merits of a full-scale bloody battle for the city (with resupply routes to the north reopened due to Ukrainian successes there) or a withdrawal to the next defensive line. Letting Russia have Pokrovsk would sting but much of the tactical utility of the city was lost months ago when it came under fire control, removing its value as a logistics hub. The problem for Ukraine is that losing Pokrovsk would allow Russia to refocus on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, even if taking them might require another 1-2 years of campaigning. Ukraine did retake Sukhietske, near Pokrovsk, however. 

Ukraine is continuing to focus on what's left of the Dobropilia salient, having retaken Kucheriv Yar last week and this week having liberated territory around Nove Shakhove and Vilne. More strategically significant is the battle for Fedorivka at the tip of the NW Pokrovsk front. If the Ukraine can roll back that front (which is not very wide) and stabilise the line, it would free up thousands of troops for redeployment to Pokrovsk. Ukraine seems to be focusing on this sector because several of Russia's best units are in the area and have suffered massive losses. Ukraine senses an opportunity to further degrade or even destroy some of Russia's better formations. Ukraine has also liberated Volodymyrivka on the far north-eastern side of this front after a particularly dumb Russian mechanised attack through muddy fields bogged down and was eliminated with HIMARS.

A Russian soldier tried to eliminate a Ukrainian ground drone with a grenade but rather dramatically (and possibly permanently) underestimated the blast radius of the explosives the drone was already carrying.

Ukraine's new rocket-powered drone interceptors have also proven effective against Russian jet-powered glide bombs. Two glide bombs were intercepted and destroyed during one counterfire and a third's trajectory was dynamically plotted on the spot and, after estimating it would hit an empty field, was ignored. This proved to be the case.

Elvira Nabiullina has come up with a great euphemism for the current status of the Russian economy: people are in "a period of high saving activity," i.e. they're not spending any money.

[Werthead]

The Russians are throwing everything in on the Dobropillia front. Today alone fourteen armoured vehicles was destroyed in a single push towards Shakhove. The Ukrainian 33rd Mechanized Brigade fended off the attack in over six hours of heavy combat. The Russians are claiming control over Rodynske, near Pokrovsk, but the Ukrainian 14th Chervona Kalyna Brigade has published footage showing Russian units being pushed out of some urban areas in the town.

The much-publicised big battle for Pokrovsk may be imminent. Russian infiltration squads were pushed back in 48 hours of heavy fighting with over 104 Russian soldiers killed, wounded or captured. Ukraine's defensive position may be more favourable than was expected, with the Russians only able to mount large-scale attacks from the south, but once the Russians get embedded in the urban area ejecting them without a massive Ukrainian troop commitment may be difficult. The Ukrainians seem reluctant to abandon the town as doing so would allow Russia  to secure a large chunk of the surrounding countryside, rendering Ukraine's massive success on the Dobropillia front moot (in terms of territory, anyway, obviously the massive elimination of Russian troops would have been worth it).

The US are applying significant political pressure to Budapest to fall in line on the sanctions. Apparently the US message was that if Orban wants to screw around to avoid enacting EU sanctions on Russia, that's fine, but when Trump tells him to jump, he expects to hear he's jumped. Orban could be about to find out the problem of having both Putin and Trump as friends when they start operating at cross-purposes.

Russia has lost another Ka-52 attack helicopter, circumstances unclear.

Damage to the Belgorod Reservoir is more significant than first claimed. Downriver there has been excessive flooding all the way to Russian positions in Vovchansk, but the main sluice gate is heavily damaged and could collapse at any time, which would trigger a far more substantial flooding.

Ukraine is monitoring a Russian troop build-up at Grayvoron on the Kursk-Sumy Oblast border. Possibly Russian reinforcements for the Sumy or Vovchansk fronts, but also the risk of them trying to open a new front on the international border SE of Sumy. Ukraine has hit the concentrations with MiG-29s and drones.

Three Ukrainian soldiers captured seven Russian troops during the battle for Vilne. The Russians were low on ammo and supplies and gave up when a Ukrainian drone held overwatch over their position.

A Russian cargo plane flew to Caracas, Venezuela via Armenia, Algiers, Dakar and Mauritania. Reportedly it was carrying weapon. Wilder rumours that some Wagner military advisors have flown to Venezuela to advise on possible responses to an American attack.

Two large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes in the Moscow area. Unconfirmed reports they may have been targeting Russia's tactical bomber aviation bases.

Anonymous has hacked the Kremlin's servers, carrying out successful denial of service attacks. It's unclear if they have gathered any useful information (I suspect not).

The very expensive Russian heavy lift crane PK-700 has capsized in Sevastopol. Appears to be an accident rather than enemy action.

The S-400 AA unit protecting Belbek Airbase lost its main radar system to a Ukrainian drone attack. Since switching to targeting the radar systems, Ukraine has managed to immobilise a number of Russia's S-400 systems. The radar systems are very expensive and difficult to replace, and destroying one renders the entire unit inoperable, as opposed to blowing up the missiles or launcher elements, which looks more spectacular but they can be replaced piecemeal.

A Russian armoured attack on Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia front, was defeated with heavy losses. A Russian soldier, cut off in a disabled vehicle, climbed out and surrendered, and was being guided to safety by Ukrainian forces when several Russian drones repeatedly hit the Russian soldier, killing him rather than allowing him to be captured.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 27 October 2025 - 10:50 PM

[Werthead]

North of Pokrovsk, the Russian 51st Army, 9th Brigade has taken an absolute pounding at Chervonyi Lyman. It looks like it was caught between the 1st Azov Corps, 14th Brigade and 7th Airborne Corps and squeezed, possibly forced to retreat. This makes it much harder for Russian to encircle the city, and forces them into heavier street-by-street fighting.

Russia has lost half of its Pantsir air defence systems this year. Russia has only managed to accelerate production to around 30 units a year. Russia is losing them at a far higher rate.

Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile has apparently now been used 9 times in anger, successfully each time according to Ukraine (no comment on the reported shootdown of 1 missile by Russia).

Russian forces trying to break into Kupyansk are simultaneously having their logistics constantly cut by drone strikes. Russian forces are unable to gain momentum.

The Oryol Russian thermal power plant has been hit by Ukrainian missiles.

France and Britain are both now building interceptor drones in large numbers for Ukraine.

Russia used drone-dropped mines to secure a logistics road but the mines were very small, so a Leopard was able to detonate them all without taking significant damage.

The Russian foothold in Vovchansk is still flooded, and has now lost power after the local substation across the border was destroyed.

The Russian MoD has reduced its signing bonus for new recruits by over 80%, citing budget cuts.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 31 October 2025 - 01:22 PM, said:

...
The Russian MoD has reduced its signing bonus for new recruits by over 80%, citing budget cuts.

'Join now, and receive 20% less floggings!!!'

[Mentalist]

Abyss, on 31 October 2025 - 02:07 PM, said:

Werthead, on 31 October 2025 - 01:22 PM, said:

...
The Russian MoD has reduced its signing bonus for new recruits by over 80%, citing budget cuts.

'Join now, and receive 20% less floggings!!!'

Actually, we've just had a detailed report about orc commanders who abuse their soldiers to extort their sign-on bonuses, and send them on suicide assaults if they refuse to pay up.

So if the sign-on bonuses are reduced, that means there will be much more flogging to make up the difference in this income stream.

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 31 October 2025 - 03:45 PM, said:

Abyss, on 31 October 2025 - 02:07 PM, said:

Werthead, on 31 October 2025 - 01:22 PM, said:

...
The Russian MoD has reduced its signing bonus for new recruits by over 80%, citing budget cuts.

'Join now, and receive 20% less floggings!!!'

Actually, we've just had a detailed report about orc commanders who abuse their soldiers to extort their sign-on bonuses, and send them on suicide assaults if they refuse to pay up.

So if the sign-on bonuses are reduced, that means there will be much more flogging to make up the difference in this income stream.

Given some of the stuff you and Wert have relayed, it's astounding to me that the orcs can even muster a battalion to show up at this point.

It's like the beginning of that Stalingrad movie ENEMY AT THE GATES where the Russian troops being sent into combat are alternately handed ammo and guns and told to retrieve whatever they don't have when the guy ahead of them dies, complete with officers chasing them to shoot anyone who doesn't charge.

[Mentalist]

Abyss, on 31 October 2025 - 04:35 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 31 October 2025 - 03:45 PM, said:

Abyss, on 31 October 2025 - 02:07 PM, said:

Werthead, on 31 October 2025 - 01:22 PM, said:

...
The Russian MoD has reduced its signing bonus for new recruits by over 80%, citing budget cuts.

'Join now, and receive 20% less floggings!!!'

Actually, we've just had a detailed report about orc commanders who abuse their soldiers to extort their sign-on bonuses, and send them on suicide assaults if they refuse to pay up.

So if the sign-on bonuses are reduced, that means there will be much more flogging to make up the difference in this income stream.

Given some of the stuff you and Wert have relayed, it's astounding to me that the orcs can even muster a battalion to show up at this point.

It's like the beginning of that Stalingrad movie ENEMY AT THE GATES where the Russian troops being sent into combat are alternately handed ammo and guns and told to retrieve whatever they don't have when the guy ahead of them dies, complete with officers chasing them to shoot anyone who doesn't charge.

Not all of this is public knowledge, despite info getting more widespread as there's a trickle of wounded who do end up making their way home and spread horror stories.
Nevertheless, there's still financial incentives to get to the frontlines. And once you're there, you don't really have a choice, as the occupied territories are very much a legal grey zone, where muscovite civil administration exists largely on paper. So those who are recruited or press-ganged into service find themselves as basically indentured peasants, until they are killed, or become totally disabled.

Situation isn't exactly rosy on Ukrainian side either. in spring-summer, zelensky gave in to public pressure and revoked travel ban for young men. Over the summer, about 100k young men between ages of 18-23 left the country. We are also dealing with over 50k deserters- majority of whom run away from basic training before they can be brought to the frontlines. The milcoms that are responsible for carrying out mobilization are perceived as corrupt, and they undermine trust in the army as a whole.

On paper, Ukraine has enough manpower to solve its current crises; but in reality the government's clumsy actions continue to demotivate the population. So the question of what's going to crack first- UAF's capacity to resist, or muscovy's socio-economic resilience remains wide open.

[Mentalist]

HUR Special ops are conducting airdrops (!!!) to clear out the outskirts of Pokrovs'k- Myrnohrad agglomeration to deblocade logistic routes. Apparently.


This seems beyond insane, unless they have ironclad intel that the enemy is near breaking point.


Meanwhile, somewhere between 200-700 UAF drones hitting Muscovy tonight. Apparently some blackouts in Moscow region. Which may sound super-impressive, but keep in mind that the Moscow region alone is bigger than Belgium. So, y'know, perspective.

[Werthead]

Vasily Trifonov, who received a free apartment from the authority in Yakutia for fighting multiple tours of duty in Ukraine before being allowed to retire, has been told there was an "irregularity" in the paperwork and have evicted him onto the street. He had a meltdown on public channels and told people not to even think of volunteering to fight as they would be betrayed by the government.

An energy transformer station outside Moscow was hit by a drone and rendered about 50% inoperative. This was a major interchange in Moscow's energy infrastructure; if Ukraine can hit two or three of these things and take them offline, they could plunge the capital into darkness.

One Ukrainian long-range drone unit is now tasked purely with destroying air defences, and have chalked up dozens of Buk, Pantsir and S-300/400 element kills this year alone. They confirm they are now trying to disable all of Russia's long-range missile defence systems.

One analysis that Ukraine is now fielding three times as many drones in the skies above the front as they did a year ago. Not quite the 400% increase Zelensky asked for in January, but getting there.

Ukraine has said they destroyed an Oreshnik missile last year in an undercover operation.

[Werthead]

It's possible the bloodiest battle for the war is taking place. The fighting in Pokrovsk is immense, with an absolute blizzard of drones, artillery, HIMARS, glide bombs and everything including the kitchen sink being fired either at or by the defenders. One suggestion is that Russia has sustained 35,000 casualties so far in the Pokrovsk offensive alone (whether that includes the failed northern offensive and successful Ukrainian counter-offensive is unclear), with well north of 100,000 casualties on this front in total over the last year or so. Figuring out what is going on has become very difficult.

Ukraine has reportedly received a new Patriot battery from Germany.

Ukraine has hit the Tuapse oil refinery hard, damaging not only the refinery but two tankers at dock.

The town of Zhukovskiy, Moscow Oblast, lost all power after a Ukrainian drone strike, the first time that's happened. Ukraine appears to now plunge the Russian capital into darkness in retaliation for attacks on Kyiv, but they still need to take out more electricity substations.

[Mentalist]

UAF reports to have "imporoved their positions in several districts of Pokrovs'k"

Meanwhile, DeepState is showing that the orcs have reached the railway line in the center of the city. From this pincer to the outer outskirts of Chervony Lyman N of Myrnohrad, there's roughly 8 km as the crow flies; which would put Myrnohrad and the positions south and SE of it in complete encirclement. It's possible that HUR's maneuver is a distraction to actually allow those units and remaining civilians to evacuate.

conflicting info about the substation in Moscow region, as locals comment it's been faulty for a whiel with periodic breakdowns- could be genuine, could be bot cope. HUR did hit a pipeline junction in the "ring" connecting Moscow, Ryazan and Yaroslavl' refineries, which would disrupt the flow of petrochemicals across central regions.

Besides hitting a few tankers in Tuapse, there was also a tugboat on fire in port Kavkaz in Temryuk, which is one of the ferry ports b/w Krasnorar Krai and Crimea (from the Azov Sea)

we also had explosions on the Au-Dag mountain in Gurzuf, Crimea, and a few power substations hit in Kurs'k, Luhans'k and possibly Oryol. So last night was busy.

Overall, UAF's gradually ramping up long-range strikes (while the orcs continue to try to demolish Ukrainian cities), while giving ground on the frontlines.

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed report of a Ukrainian counter-offensive beginning on the Kupyansk front.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 02 November 2025 - 07:50 PM, said:

Unconfirmed report of a Ukrainian counter-offensive beginning on the Kupyansk front.

given they've now stretched 15 km along the Oskil (from initial crossing point at Dvorichna to Kup'yans'k), and only pushed out 4.5 km from the river at most, this is a long-overdue decision.

cutting this stretch would completely halt the offensive on the city.