[Werthead]

It remains a difficult situation but it looks a little more certain that Ukraine counter-attacks around Pokrovsk have been effective in at least halting the immediate offensive (for how long remains unclear). At least 300 Russian soldiers are still in the city and are under heavy attack (though some sources say it may be more like 1,000). The crucial stage will be Russia succeeding in linking up contiguous ground supply routes to them, which does not appear to have happened yet. Counter-attacks on the flanks are continuing. The Lyman front has stabilised, the Kupyansk front is active with little detail of what's going on. The Dobropillia front is very active, with both Russia and Ukraine trying to draw enemy reinforcements away from Pokrovsk. The Myrnohrad front remains contested, but some signs of the Russian effort slackening.

Russia might be trying to do too much here with not enough men. If it had gone all-in on Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Kupyansk, Vovchansk or Sumy it might have succeeded with one or two of those offensives, but it spread itself thin again, with far less active reserves available.

The UK has delivered new Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.

The Saratov refinery has taken a heavy hit overnight.

The reporting now is that Ukraine has received two Patriot batteries from Germany.

Serbia has agreed to sell ammunition supplies to Europe, who can then do whatever they want with it.

Russia has had to start importing sulfur after internal production collapsed.

The Russian railway system has slipped into deficit for the first time since the pandemic, due to a collapse in freight movement.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 08:44 PM

[Mentalist]

Zelensky saying there's only like 60 orcs spread out through the northern quarter of Kup'yans'k is... concerning.

Unless we see some drastic map reversals in the next few days, that'll be a very blatant false statement.

I'd like nothing more than to be wrong on this, but don't have a good feeling on it.

[Werthead]

The more reliable OSINT sources are being cautious, some of the more excitable ones are saying that Ukraine has regained control of the hospital district in Kupyansk and pushed Russian forces further north. Some isolated Russian units are stuck behind the lines. But even they note the situation remains precarious with Russia trying to push in from the north.