[Werthead]

Recent analyses of Ukrainian offensive drone operations shows a systemic, almost platform-wide improvement on targeting and battlefield effectiveness.

Russian S-300 and S-400 launchers have been hit repeatedly, but in many cases the drones have ignored the actual missiles to destroy the radar control systems. Less flashy, but immensely more expensive and complicated to replace. It disables the SAM system more effectively than destroying the missiles (Russia can produce new missiles easily) or even the launchers, turning them into useless pieces of metal. Ukraine has also prioritised mid-range AA platforms for the first time, destroying dozens across Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This, combined with platform enhancements, has allowed the re-emergence of Ukrainian-Turkish Bayraktar drones.

Russian radar systems 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot and 55Zh6M Nebo-M radar systems have also been destroyed in Crimea.

A Ukrainian drone unit was being hunted down by Russian forces, to the point that they ran out of drones and ordered ballistic missile strikes on the suspected position instead. After watching Russia waste $12 million on four ballistic missile strikes in bemusement, the drone unit returned to base.

Four Ukrainian soldiers were trapped behind Russian lines in the summer of 2022. They evaded capture, but have finally managed to cross the lines and return home.

Slovakia seems to have agreed to back Ukraine's EU accession path. Orban remains opposed, despite Putin saying he has no objection.

The OSINT community has worked out that there are around 2,577 Ukrainian POWs being held by Russia. There are a further 680 individuals, including 91 civilians, whose status is uncertain.

On the Donetsk front, a Russian BM-21 Grad has been destroyed after it got too close to the front to target Ukrainian positions. More and more Russian heavy equipment has been lost in recent weeks after being pushed to take greater risks.

Ukraine has revealed that in August they carried out a special naval operation that destroyed a BL-680 boat, Harpoon-B radar and Groza EW system, with multiple Russians killed.

A huge 39N6 Kasta-2E2 radar station in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai was hit by Ukrainian drones. Damage assessment unclear, but the radar was covering a large part of southern Russia.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Sumy salient continuing and becoming more successful, with Ukraine advancing NE of Kindrativka and almost punching the Russian salient into two parts. However, both Russia and Ukraine have been rotating units out of Sumy to the Donetsk front. We may see the Sumy front become less active as units are moved elsewhere.

The US and Ukraine are discussing a $100 billion deal which would grant Ukraine access to more advanced American weapons systems whilst Washington would receive patents and IP rights to any modifications to those systems made in Ukraine. Ukraine would continue sharing battlefield intel and combat data with the United States.

Russian forces attempting a major breakthrough in the Myrnohrad sector were destroyed.

A further assessment of Russian refinery strikes suggests that Russia has now lost over 24.2% of its oil refinery capacity due to strikes by UAVs. 7 refineries have been hit, with 5 forced to halt operations and have not yet returned to full operational status. Ukraine is likely to continue the offensive. Civilian fuel shortages are continuing to spread through Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, plus the Russian Far East. Fuel shortages spreading to the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas would represent a huge loss of face and economic capacity.

Moscow has reportedly demanded a "decisive breakthrough" to take Pokrovsk in the coming weeks, and has detailed significant reinforcements to also try to take Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Pokrovsk's defence remains extremely tenacious, but the strategic situation around the town has shifted somewhat in Russia's favour, making along, grinding defensive battle for the city harder to achieve with very limited routes for Ukrainian resupply (as opposed to previous urban battles). Kramatorsk-Slovyansk is a much, much bigger ask. Ukrainian forces captured 26 Russian POWs near Pokrovsk in the last week and Ukrainian drones have switched to hitting Russian troop and equipment concentrations behind the lines.

Slovakia has shifted its stance, saying it will not provide ground troops as a security guarantee for Ukraine but will provide logistical support.

Ukrainian sources have estimated the following Russian losses for the summer campaign. This is based on visually-confirmed losses, Russian discussions on Telegram, and analysis of Russian death notice in the home press. There are likely to be overestimates and underestimates, and it'll be interesting to see what US and European estimates (which tend to lag 3-5 months behind Ukrainian ones, but end up being similar) say.

Personnel (KIA, wounded, captured, deserted or MIA): 94,430 (32,420 June, 33,220 July, 28,790 August)

Equipment (destroyed or damaged; in some cases may be recoverable): 32,176 (9,836 June, 10,897 July, 11,443 August)

Missiles: 592 launched, 384 shot down

Drones: 16,115 launched, 9,692 shot down

Number of combat engagements: 15,854 (5,304 June, 5,523 July, 5,027 August)

Number of air alerts: 4,350 (1,455 June, 1,776 July, 1,119 August)

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 September 2025 - 09:30 PM

[Mentalist]

Fortunately, the orc Marines tasked with attacking the Pokrovs'k- Myrnohrad agglomeration from the E brought along their commander. General Akhmedov. The man renowned for sending many, many armored columns in one-way assaults towards Vuhledar, who repeated the same tactics during his tenure on the Kurs'k- Sumy axis. And we're already seeing the same things around Myrnohrad.

Speaking of Sumy, DeepState unfortunately shows orc advances in Yunakivka, crossing the Loknya river. So things aren't exactly rosy.

Zelensky indicates that nearly 60% of UAF's equipment is now domestically produced. A number of Ukrainiain weapon producers (especially drone-makers) are unable to grow, b/c they are still restricted from exporting their wares. Kyiv is still slow to lift those bureaucratic limits.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has gained more ground than it lost since the start of August. In the last five weeks, Ukraine has liberated five times more territory than they have lost, mostly on the Pokrovsk front but some in Kharkiv and Sumy as well.

The current estimate is that 92 American citizens have been killed fighting for Ukraine as volunteer soldiers. Several thousand have served in total, with an unknown number wounded. Quite a few have done tours of duty and been discharged back home, in some cases after seeing some pretty horrendous engagements.

Russian milbloggers very angry after the stunts on the Kupyansk front, where soldiers were told to raise Russian flags behind enemy lines, allowing them to be destroyed almost instantly.

[Werthead]

Interesting claims that Ukraine's opportunistic counter-attacks on the Pokrovsk front are developing into a more sustained counter-offensive. Russia's over-extension in its mad dash through the lines towards Dobropillia seems to have opened its flanks to serious counter-attacks. After some time in the grey zone, Novoekonomichne now appears to be fully retaken and Razine is under attack. Ukrainian forces have gone further and rolled into areas more firmly held by Russia since before the counter-offensive. This is despite Russia reinforcing the area with some heavy units, apparently hoping for a larger-scaled breakthrough. Interesting to see how this goes.

There appears to have been a very heavy assault in Donetsk Oblast using drones, artillery and cruise missiles (Peklo mini-missiles were spotted, possibly Palyanytsya jet-drones, no Flamingos so far. The command centre of Russia's 41st Combined Arms Army was hit, along with the command post of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division. The Topaz Plant in Donetsk was destroyed.

Ukraine also launched a long-range drone strike which damaged the Vtorovo Pumping Station in Vladimir, supplying diesel to the Moscow ring pipeline. 

Russian Telegram channels commenting on the fuel shortages in Donetsk and Luhansk which have become more serious. Drivers are waiting up to 3 hours to refill, prices have jumped 90 rubles a litre and resellers are charging over 200. Fuel is rationed, and soldiers are forced to line up with civilians and pay out of their pockets, as the gas stations are not accepting even military credit.

Several cemeteries created to honour the fallen of the "special military operation" in Russia have been destroyed. In Yakutsk, a woman went to visit her brother's grave only to find the entire area had been bulldozed and levelled, with some plans to turn it into a park. Authorities said there may be some "walk of fame" monument to the fallen, but the individual graves would not longer be marked.

[Mentalist]

DeepState's map shows the edges of the grey zone at the base of the "dobropillya salient" to be 4 km apart.

There's some unconfirmed reporting that UAF has advanced as far as Fedorivka, which would put the distance to the Volodymirivka-Mayak-Novotorets'ke line at only 3 km. if that's what we're looking at, then its quite promising. But we need to wait and see, as we've been through this "Ukraine is about to pull of A MASSIVE ENCIRCLEMENT" song and dance often enough.


Slov'yan'sk-on-Kuban refinery in Krasnodar Krai reported halt of all operations.

[the broken]

Quote

Several cemeteries created to honour the fallen of the "special military operation" in Russia have been destroyed. In Yakutsk, a woman went to visit her brother's grave only to find the entire area had been bulldozed and levelled, with some plans to turn it into a park. Authorities said there may be some "walk of fame" monument to the fallen, but the individual graves would not longer be marked.

...Are they trying to spark a revolt?

Quote

Slightly weird conversation in Beijing where Xi and Putin joked that at 70 they are still children (Putin turns 73 next month, Xi just turned 72) and they expect biotech will make it possible to live to 150 before the end of this century. Putin also mused on cell-regeneration to become immortal. Putin definitely dwelling on his own mortality there.

Somewhat terrifying as they mentioned organ transplants.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is now pushing hard to collapse the entire Dobropillia salient, attacking along the Kazenyi Torets River from both north and south, with their forces now roughly 3500-4000m apart. Russian forces west of the river are now risking being cut off but are resisting. The head of the salient has also been reduced, and Kucheriv Yar is completely encircled.

Penza, south-east of Moscow, has taken a huge hit. Massive explosions and fire showing up on NASA FIRMS, a few km south of the town. Two gas pipelines have been disabled. 

Mariupol Airport has taken a series of hits. Multiple Russian vehicles guarding the airport have been destroyed or disabled.

The Russian budget deficit has increased to over twice the planned target for all of 2025 (with 4 months left). Energy exports are now at their lowest-ever-level since records began, with the record lowest level set last month likely to be broken (possibly significantly) this month. Pressure is high to reduce the key intereset rate, but this would accelerate deprecation and a massive increase in prices, possibly triggering capital flight and a full banking crisis. Putin has apparently - angrily - shut down a suggestion by Sberbank that Russia is now in a state of stagflation (other, less formal sources are saying Russia is in technical recession and has been in effective recession for months).

Poland is sealing its border with Belarus during joint Russian-Belarusian exercises. Russia has also increased rhetoric against Finland, saying that Finland has become "a hotbed of fascism."

This post has been edited by Werthead: Today, 02:02 PM