[Werthead]

Recent analyses of Ukrainian offensive drone operations shows a systemic, almost platform-wide improvement on targeting and battlefield effectiveness.

Russian S-300 and S-400 launchers have been hit repeatedly, but in many cases the drones have ignored the actual missiles to destroy the radar control systems. Less flashy, but immensely more expensive and complicated to replace. It disables the SAM system more effectively than destroying the missiles (Russia can produce new missiles easily) or even the launchers, turning them into useless pieces of metal. Ukraine has also prioritised mid-range AA platforms for the first time, destroying dozens across Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This, combined with platform enhancements, has allowed the re-emergence of Ukrainian-Turkish Bayraktar drones.

Russian radar systems 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot and 55Zh6M Nebo-M radar systems have also been destroyed in Crimea.

A Ukrainian drone unit was being hunted down by Russian forces, to the point that they ran out of drones and ordered ballistic missile strikes on the suspected position instead. After watching Russia waste $12 million on four ballistic missile strikes in bemusement, the drone unit returned to base.

Four Ukrainian soldiers were trapped behind Russian lines in the summer of 2022. They evaded capture, but have finally managed to cross the lines and return home.

Slovakia seems to have agreed to back Ukraine's EU accession path. Orban remains opposed, despite Putin saying he has no objection.

The OSINT community has worked out that there are around 2,577 Ukrainian POWs being held by Russia. There are a further 680 individuals, including 91 civilians, whose status is uncertain.

On the Donetsk front, a Russian BM-21 Grad has been destroyed after it got too close to the front to target Ukrainian positions. More and more Russian heavy equipment has been lost in recent weeks after being pushed to take greater risks.

Ukraine has revealed that in August they carried out a special naval operation that destroyed a BL-680 boat, Harpoon-B radar and Groza EW system, with multiple Russians killed.

A huge 39N6 Kasta-2E2 radar station in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai was hit by Ukrainian drones. Damage assessment unclear, but the radar was covering a large part of southern Russia.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Sumy salient continuing and becoming more successful, with Ukraine advancing NE of Kindrativka and almost punching the Russian salient into two parts. However, both Russia and Ukraine have been rotating units out of Sumy to the Donetsk front. We may see the Sumy front become less active as units are moved elsewhere.

The US and Ukraine are discussing a $100 billion deal which would grant Ukraine access to more advanced American weapons systems whilst Washington would receive patents and IP rights to any modifications to those systems made in Ukraine. Ukraine would continue sharing battlefield intel and combat data with the United States.

Russian forces attempting a major breakthrough in the Myrnohrad sector were destroyed.

A further assessment of Russian refinery strikes suggests that Russia has now lost over 24.2% of its oil refinery capacity due to strikes by UAVs. 7 refineries have been hit, with 5 forced to halt operations and have not yet returned to full operational status. Ukraine is likely to continue the offensive. Civilian fuel shortages are continuing to spread through Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, plus the Russian Far East. Fuel shortages spreading to the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas would represent a huge loss of face and economic capacity.

Moscow has reportedly demanded a "decisive breakthrough" to take Pokrovsk in the coming weeks, and has detailed significant reinforcements to also try to take Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Pokrovsk's defence remains extremely tenacious, but the strategic situation around the town has shifted somewhat in Russia's favour, making along, grinding defensive battle for the city harder to achieve with very limited routes for Ukrainian resupply (as opposed to previous urban battles). Kramatorsk-Slovyansk is a much, much bigger ask. Ukrainian forces captured 26 Russian POWs near Pokrovsk in the last week and Ukrainian drones have switched to hitting Russian troop and equipment concentrations behind the lines.

Slovakia has shifted its stance, saying it will not provide ground troops as a security guarantee for Ukraine but will provide logistical support.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Today, 05:04 PM