[Werthead]

The Russian southwards counterattack in the Koronevo area of Kursk seems to have made some ground, but at the rather dubious expense of placing the Russians at extreme risk of being encircled as Ukrainian counterattacking thrusts to the NW and NW have started swinging towards one another. Possibly thousands of Russian soldiers are at risk of encirclement. Impressively dumb positioning.

Insanely Meta has only just agreed to block the activities of Russian state media, including RT, on all its platforms.

Russian forces on the ground have acknowledged the counter-offensive in Kursk has shifted from its objective of retaking lost ground to stopping the Ukrainians taking more ground, and the prospects for doing that are not good, especially in the Glushkovo area.

The months-long battle for northern Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast seems to be drawing to a close. Russian forces have withdrawn from the industrial plant that they had turned into a fortress and now their own artillery is levelling the plant to try to stop it being used as a defensive redoubt or base by Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent months building a new defensive line further north, so Russian forces may retreat to that line to create a new stable (?) front inside the borders of Kharkiv Oblast. Although given this is only a few kilometres inside the border (less than 5km along much of its length, maybe closer to 2km in places), the Russian military may ask if this adventure was really worth the lives of thousands of Russian troops. However, to the west the Russians have managed to retake parts of Hlyboke.

Russia has also redoubled efforts to attack Chasiv Yar, at least their third major attack this year. They managed to briefly cross the canal zone to the south-east of the city but were repulsed. The Russians claim they have established a bridgehead on the west side of the canal zone, which would be a significant move if so.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that casualties in the war have reached 1 million. They believe 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed (which would be at the high end of most estimates), 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been wounded, over 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and around 400,000 Russian soldiers have been wounded. They seem to be hesitant about the numbers of Ukrainian civilians killed, which some estimates believe exceeds 50,000.

Engles Airbase has been hit by Ukrainian damage. Significant fires and explosions, full extent of the damage unclear.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Azath Vitr (D, on 16 September 2024 - 01:33 PM, said:

I'm a bit surprised the Kremlin isn't trying to claim he was a Ukrainian agent, or that Ukraine is trying to assassinate Trump. Wonder if anyone's been saying that on Russian state television or social media...

Here we go:

Quote

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev tweeted Monday morning, "I wonder what would happen if it turned out that the failed new Trump shooter Routh, who recruited mercenaries for the Ukrainian army, was himself hired by the neo-nazi regime in Kiev for this assassination attempt?"

[...] "This guy used to hang around St. Michael's Square in front of the Intercontinental, where all the reporters stayed in Kyiv. So, a lot of reporters interviewed him. He made himself distinctive by wearing a bandanna with an American flag on it. He put up a sign saying 'Join the International Legion.'

Spoiler

But he had nothing to do with the legion." [... "]He was promising people to put them in the legion, but there's no way he could have recruited them."

[...] The legion was set up and run by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. "Vetting was very elaborate, [...] You needed to have military experience [..."] The process was tight[...] "because there was a lot of concern about Russian infiltration."

[...] Edward Snowden, [...] who fled to Moscow after leaking extremely classified documents, tweeted, "We know little so far, but w[ith] alleged Trump shooter's personal and public participation in military activity in Ukraine, it is hard to imagine this White House's agencies can claim zero contact—'clean hands.' Something of [a Lee Harvey] Oswald vibe here. Congress should get answers."

No, Trump's Would-Be Assassin Is Not an Agent for Ukraine ... was considered a "crazy crusader" and a crank by those who knew him in Kyiv

Seems like Trump/MAGA (and Alex Jones) would rather try to blame the Democrats / US "deep state" (Alex Jones claiming he was a "NATO/CIA asset")...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 September 2024 - 08:58 PM

[worry]

Werthead, on 17 September 2024 - 07:43 PM, said:

The Wall Street Journal estimates that casualties in the war have reached 1 million. They believe 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed (which would be at the high end of most estimates), 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been wounded, over 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and around 400,000 Russian soldiers have been wounded. They seem to be hesitant about the numbers of Ukrainian civilians killed, which some estimates believe exceeds 50,000.

Jeeeeez that is grim. I know it's over-simple to chalk it up to 'one man's ego' but to a certain degree at least it kind of is.

[Werthead]

Ukrainina drones have hit a major Russian ammunition storage facility in Toropets, west of Moscow. The resulting explosion might be the single biggest blast of the war to date. Hours later, ammunition is still detonating. International earthquake monitoring stations initially reported an earthquake in the area. Potentially 30,000 tons of explosives, missiles and ammunition were destroyed, or roughly twice as much explosive as that used on Hiroshima. However, these explosives were spread out over a much bigger area and did not all go up at once.

S-300, S-400 and Iskander missiles were all destroyed in the explosion. It's unknown if any launch systems were stored there.

France has agreed to deliver Mirage-2000 jets, with the first potentially to arrive in Ukraine later this year.

Armenia has said that continued membership of the CSTO creates existential threats to Armenia's sovreignty. It will instead seek closer cooperation with the EU, USA and Georgia, and improve relations with Turkey.

Russian advances in Kursk have apparently halted due to the risk of encirclement by Ukrainian forces.

[Werthead]

In the single greatest sentence written to date about the conflict:

Kadyrov says Musk deactivated his Cybertruck.

I have broken out a violin which is exactly 1 Planck unit in length.

Russia has a bombed a nursing home for the elderly in Sumy. It is unclear why.

Ukraine is using ground drones which have the capability to run over mines without setting them off, painting their location for other Ukrainian forces to destroy them.

Ukraine is improving its telemetry to control drones, and can now operate them through fairly dense tree cover, relying on their AI to take over if the signal gets spotty.

Residents in the Kursk region can still get Russian TV and are agog at suggestions that the Russian military should obliterate every town and village captured by Ukraine. "They know we're still living here?"

Analysis of the Toropets explosion suggests 40 buildings have been levelled, between 15 and 25 of the 42 storage bunkers have been obliterated, and roughly 80% of the facility is out of commission. Even in the bits still standing, the temperatures and blast damage have likely rendered remaining explosive material unstable and dangerous.

European countries have been buying Indian artillery rounds for over a year and then immediately sending on the shells to Ukraine. According to India, what customers do with their shells after they buy them is not their concern.

Unconfirmed report that an ICOM V82 radio identical to the ones that exploded in Lebanon blew up in Moscow yesterday, suggesting at least one sabotaged communications device made its way into Russia.

As of 2 hours ago, there is reporting of Ukrainian forces launching attacks on the south-western edge of Glushkovo town. If true, that means they could be close to collapsing the Glushkovo Pocket and severing all avenues for retreat over the Seym River. Other sources saying Ukraine is not quite there yet, but it has broken free of engagements around Veseloye and is now moving decisively east on Glushkovo.

The current numbers of Russian troops in the pocket is hard to get a full estimate on, but the full Russian Kurk counter-offensive was launched through Glushkovo eastwards, so it's certainly many thousands. I'm not sure about the 10-15,000 figues I'm seeing, that would seem on the high side. 6,000 seems to be the most common, credible figure.

Switzerland has launched some initiatives designed to support Ukraine through non-military means, including financial support for Ukrainian educational establishments and helping Ukraine expand digital classrooms for displaced citizens and help with online marriage registration. Ukraine was not as far down the road to digital services as many European nations, so Switzerland is aiming to help it catch up. Obviously not the vast amount of ammunition and firepower that Ukraine might prefer to receive from Switzerland, but help in other civil spheres is needed.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 19 September 2024 - 10:52 PM

[Werthead]

Prominent "Z-blogger" Anastasia Elsukova was captured in Kursk Oblast. She's picked up a following due to a willingness to get right up to the front, and was wounded with shrapnel in January 2023 from being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Which obviously has now repeated itself. She's pretty likely to be swapped for Ukrainian PoWs.

Ukraine is sending an An-32P Firekiller waterbomber to help Portugal fighting wildfires. The aircraft will be sent fully-crewed. This is in thanks for Portuguese support in the conflict.

A retired thermal powerplant in Lithuania is being dismantled piece-by-piece and moved to Ukraine. Lithuania and the EU are working to provide Ukraine with additional power resources.

Russian residents in Koronevo are furious that so far "not one" Ukrainian soldier has set foot in the town (meaning the part of the town NW of the river) but "somehow" almost every shop, gas station and pharmacy, and most residential buildings have been mysteriously looted.

The Russian Communist Party raised a question in the Duma about how criminals can evade punishment by being recruited to join the military. The government spokesman looked annoyed and curtly replied that the punishment is effectively a death sentence, so it's not a problem.

A Russian soldier has reported that he was treated with alcohol as an antiseptic during treatment for an injury. His superior officer visited him, smelled the alcohol, and declared that he had been drinking on duty. He was promptly tied to a tree and beaten with sticks for four days solid. He was unable to sleep during this time.

Another Russian soldier was left to hold a small island in the Dnipro by himself. He was given rations for three weeks but was left unrelieved for three months. He survived by eating frogs and reed roots, and was shot in the leg. Eventually he identified himself to a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone, the operators of which decided not to kill him and instead dropped off cookies and a life jacket. Ukrainian soldiers retrieved him.

Ukrainian undercover agents were given a tour of the 4th Tank Division in Naro-Fominsk, near Moscow. They put the tour online afterwards, a friendly way of letting the Russians know they just gave up the secrets of a classified facility to the enemy.

Valentina Matviyenko, Chairwoman of the Federation Council, gave a TV interview where she mocked the Lebanese citizens and Hezbollah members killed in Israel's pager attack, despite nominally being aligned. 

Very heavy fighting on the Glushkovo front. Ukraine has lost a Leopard in a frontal assault on Russian positions outside the town. 

The EU has released €35 billion in frozen Russian reserves to Ukraine.

Kadyrov has possibly gone insane. Insaner.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 20 September 2024 - 04:23 PM, said:

Another Russian soldier was left to hold a small island in the Dnipro by himself. He was given rations for three weeks but was left unrelieved for three months. He survived by eating frogs and reed roots, and was shot in the leg. Eventually he identified himself to a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone, the operators of which decided not to kill him and instead dropped off cookies and a life jacket.

lol

Frog can be very tasty, but I'd imagine that the frogs I've eaten were pretty thoroughly fattened up---wild frogs, IDK...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 20 September 2024 - 06:59 PM

[Werthead]

The Tikhoretsk ammunition storage facility in Krasnodar Krai has been destroyed, potentially obliterating up to 300 containers of North Korean ammunition. The nearby Podlyot radar station was also damaged and the neighbouring airbase seems to have taken several drone hits as well, destroying multiple buildings.

The main artillery arsenal at Oktyabrskiy, Tver has also been hit.

These are two huge ammunition storage facilities, not far off Toropets in size. Neither facility has quite been levelled in the same way, but they have sustained very heavy hits. That's tens of thousands of shells and missiles that have gone up in smoke.

Russia has six or seven of these huge ammunition storage facilities in its western regions (there are others in Siberia, but they are not practically located to supply the front lines in Ukraine), and half of them have been partially or totally eliminated in a few days.

There's already signs that Russia is displacing ammunition to smaller depots to prevent their eggs all being in one basket in the same way.

JSAM missiles have been greenlit for Ukraine's F-16s. They should be on their way imminently.

Australia is preparing to send 59 retired Australian M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

The recent tranche of Iranian ballistic missiles delivered to Russia did not include any launchers, meaning they can't actually be used (unless Russia can convert existing launchers, but they're not exactly plug-and-play).

The Wagner base in Molkino, Krasnodar has been destroyed. The admin buildings were hit by drones and set ablaze.

A significant attack in the Donetsk area was repulsed. 20 out of 52 vehicles were destroyed and 72 Russians killed or wounded.

Zelensky has refuted the claim that 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war. This was at the upper end of most estimates, which seem to be circling closer to 50,000. Still too many, of course.

[Werthead]

Some estimates that 40,000 tons of ammunition has been destroyed in four days, accounting for 12% of existing Russian stockpiles. Russia would burn through this amount in between 4 and 6 weeks. This is pretty significant, not to mention Ukrainian drones are apparently now able to penetrate supposedly hardened ammunition storage facilities.

Russia can't do much in response. It can disperse ammunition to smaller storage sites, but these are easier to destroy. They also have to keep these sites close to the railway network, creating limitations on where they can place new facilities or convert old ones.

Russia test-fired an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM. The missile exploded on the pad. This is the fourth failed launch in a row for Sarmat.

The damage to Tikhoretsk appears to be much greater than first thought, and we may be looking at a near total facility loss like Toropets.

Ukraine has produced "millions" of drones this year alone, and has bought over a million more from outside partners.

Ukraine is now deep in talks with Sweden over buying Gripen jets and with Britain and France over Eurofighter Typhoons. Britain had indicated that Typhoons were on the table but possibly not until after the war is over. That may have now shifted. However, Typhoons are demanding to fly and maintain (moreso than F-16, though also superior) so that won't happen tomorrow.

1500 Russians killed, wounded or captured yesterday alone, one of the highest single-day figures for the entire conflict.

The crew of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, which has been stuck in dock for years waiting for repairs Russia cannot afford, has been sent to fight on the front line in Ukraine.

Some credible theorising that Ukraine's recent success has been down to Ukraine gaining access to the entire Russian train system after taking the railyard at Sudzha in Kursk. This allows them to track almost every train movement on the entire Russian network and plan accordingly, such as hitting ammo depots when they're unloading the trains and knowing when imported ammo from Iran or North Korea is arriving at a facility. Russia can't shut them out of the network due to how the radio signals work, and they can't change the entire system overnight.

Interesting that Russia hasn't tried to destroy the railyard yet to cut off physical access to the network.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 September 2024 - 07:15 PM

[Macros]

It's a bananas situation, they can't afford to fix their ships for years yet start a war

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Putin Is Doing Something Almost Nobody Is Noticing

[...] my colleague Elena Kostyuchenko discovered she had been poisoned in Germany, in a probable assassination attempt by the Russian state.

Such stories have become routine. Last year, an investigative journalist, Alesya Marokhovskaya, was harassed in the Czech Republic; in February, the bullet-riddled body of a Russian defector, Maxim Kuzminov, was found in Spain. In both cases, the Kremlin was assumed to be involved. Russian opposition figures know well that even in exile they remain targets of Russia's intelligence services.

[...] The Kremlin is hunting down ordinary people across the world, and nobody seems to care.

[...] it is a truly global operation. In Britain,

Spoiler

exiles are being followed and London opposition events are crawling with agents "who stick out like a sore thumb," [...] Russian intelligence officers have been sent to monitor the diasporas in Germany, Poland and Lithuania[...] Other emigrants have been stalked and threatened in Rome, Paris, Prague and Istanbul. The list goes on.

Some of the methods are especially insidious. [...] an exiled activist in Poland, has been receiving texts for two years, supposedly from his mother. "Levushka, son, I miss you so, when will you visit me?" Another reads, "Son, I'm waiting for you. Come back soon." He ignores them: His mother, Olga, died five years ago. [...]

Host countries are often complicit.

Opinion | Putin Is Hunting Down Ordinary People All Over the World - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

And for those that generally aren't, I'd guess they try to bribe or blackmail officials / law enforcement into compliance... though they'd risk having that reported to law enforcement/spy agencies...

Quote

Exiles who've experienced similar surveillance sometimes end up disappearing without a trace — be it from the doorstep of an embassy in Armenia or a rural church in Georgia — only to turn up in Russian detention centers.

Opinion | Putin Is Hunting Down Ordinary People All Over the World - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 23 September 2024 - 01:45 PM

[Werthead]

Perun on the Ukrainian economy. It is faring significantly better than expected but is still experiencing obviously large problems in several key areas. The bananas bit is that by the end of 2025, the economy will have recovered most, but not all, of the way to where it was in 2022. The medium-term prospect is also good: if the war ends in 2025-27, the mass return of Ukrainian refugees contributing to the economy again could result in a significant boost. This will all be necessary given the cost of rebuilding the destroyed areas will be significant, even with massive overseas aid.

OTOH, as explained in the previous video, Russia's economy could simply deflate like a burst football after the war, even if it "wins."

Russian forces have made a breakthrough just west of Vuhledar. This is important as the town is predominantly under attack from the SE, E and NE. A western breakthrough could encircle the town. So far Ukraine is keeping open the lines of supply. The Russians have advanced, but there's a significant mine complex on that side which Ukraine has fortified and could hold for months, so it remains to be seen if they will defend or not. Withdrawing from the positon means leaving a very formidable defensive redoubt with nothing but fields behind them for several miles, and would allow Russia to shorten an area of the front where they've had to keep thousands of troops deployed for eighteen months. Ukraine reporting the situation is difficult but not yet critical.

The aggregate plant in Vovchansk is fully in Ukrainian hands and attempts to destroy the building by retreating Russian forces seem to have failed. The Ukrainians are pushing to try to reclaim the rest of the town.

Insider reports from Russia that Putin is "very angry" at the Kursk operation and the apparent stalling of the Pokrovsk front. If Kursk is not retaken and Pokrovsk taken by 1 October - neither seem probable at the moment - he will apparently demand a full report from Gerasimov on how these objectives will be achieved, and how a final victory will be achieved in the 2024-25 year. It sounds like Russia is waking up to the fact it can't keep the fight going for several more years. Gerasimov's position is very definitely in doubt at the moment.

Closer analysis now suggests that the Tikhoretsk ammo dump has been completely destroyed, whilst the Toropets facility appears to be at least 90% destroyed.

Japan has sent fighters to intercept a Russian aircraft which violated its airspace. This coincided with a meeting between Zelensky and the Japanese PM in New York.

[Werthead]

Russian ultranationalist journalist Vladislav Shurygin has been posting again about endemic corruption on the front. He claims Russian officers are reporting that Ukrainian positions have been taken when they haven't even been attacked, to claim they are staying on-schedule and on-target. They then sacrifice large numbers of soldiers in a blind panic to take the target before they are "found out." If they are unable to do so, they instead report that the position has been retaken after a furious Ukrainian counter-attack, rather than they never took the position in the first place. This may go some way to explain the insane toing-and-froing of some areas of control switching from Russian to Ukrainian and back again in several key areas over the past two years or so. Another Z-blogger, Danil Zenchugov, has been posting about Russian commanders who have "playbooks" of excuses for military failures, including such gems as "they sold their bulletproof vests," (the commanders sold the bulletproof vests before they could reach the men), "they were playing on their phones," (the phones had been confiscated - and sometimes sold - by the commanders), "they were reading messages on Telegram," (actually true, but only because nonexistent communications equipment meant that they were using Telegram to call in artillery and air strikes on targets) or, "died manning a roadblock."

One interesting fact about this is that Russian command thinks that units are much stronger than they really are, and in some cases have ordered units to attack a target, not realising the unit only has 20 fully-bodied troops in it, and not finding out until the unit has effectively completely ceased to exist.

A quite large Russian convoy was located about 30km behind the front south of Horlivka and north-east of Donetsk City. A HIMARS strike obliterated the entire formation.

Ukraine is to receive the air-launched AGM-154A glide bomb from the USA for the first time. These have a range of approximately 112km.

Russia has renewed attacks on the Niu-York front using unarmoured pickup trucks, which have been modified with drone cope cages. So far, these have been ineffectual, with numerous trucks destroyed.

Ukrainian units have fortified Pripyat, Chornobyl, apparently against the threat of a renewed Russian or Belarusian push through the area. Ukrainian snipers have been conducting training in the ruins of the town (possibly gearing up for the release of STALKER 2).

The 72nd Mechanized Brigade has reported that it is holding strong in Vuhledar, despite the Russians drawing a tighter net around the town. One avenue for resupply and reinforcement remains open.

Russian Shahed-136 drones have been captured with Starlink systems installed on them, and additional cameras. This turns the Shahed-136 into a very long-range loitering drone, able to change target acquisition at a very late stage of the flight. Starlink is apparently investigating how this is happening given all Starlink terminals in Russian hands were supposedly bricked a few weeks back.

A Russian S-400 system has been heavily damaged in Filyppova, Kursk. Unclear if it is recoverable.

The US has pledged an additional Patriot unit to Ukraine and the remainder of the $8 billion in funding for Ukraine will be delivered in October (i.e. before the election).

Sumy has been hit by FAB-500 aerial bombs, one of which failed to detonate and has since been made safe by Ukrainian forces. There have been growing claims for some time that the quality of Russian ordinance has become shoddier, with glide bombs, artillery shells and even cruise missiles blowing up in mid-air, plowing into the ground well short of the target or failing to explode.

The UK might have to halt weapons supplies to Ukraine due to running low on supplies. Although UK production runs of shells, cruise missiles and other parts have increased and will continue to go to Ukraine, the UK needs to replenish its own stocks of vehicles and tanks. The only area where the UK has an abundance of firepower is in the form of aircraft, with Boris Johnson urging the UK government to consider transferring Eurofighter Typhoons and even F-35s to Ukraine. However, US permission is needed for the latter and Ukraine has no pilots trained to operate the Typhoon.

Poland has said that if Russia strikes Ukrainian nuclear plants, Poland may have no choice but to directly and "immediately intervene" in the conflict. A nuclear catastrophe close to Polish borders would be unacceptable.

TikTok has started banning Russian state media from operating on its platform, whilst Apple has started banning VPN apps in Russia, which millions of Russians rely on to get news from outside the country.

The new Iranian President claims that no munitions have been transferred to Russian "on his watch." Other countries are treating this claim with scepticism, although noting some recent oddities like Iran sending missiles and shells of a type Russia cannot fire without Iranian launchers, but no launchers have been sent, making the munitions useless. Iran has urged Russia and Ukraine to discuss peace terms. Meanwhile, Iran is also apparently working to facilitate the transfer of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles from Russia to the Houthis in Yemen.

Zelensky on a charm offensive at the United Nations, with particularly warm words for South Africa. Interesting realpolitik here, with Zelensky expressing much admiration for the likes of Ramaphosa and Modi, leaders who are simultaneously chummy with Putin whilst also taking advantage of the situation to rinse Moscow for financial deals, meaning they're not doing much to actually help Russia in the conflict. 

Saab will become the second European company to open weapons production plans directly in Ukraine to help more quickly resupply the front. Rheinmetall is already working on plans to either build new facilities in Ukraine or adapt existing ones.

A Russian soldier from the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division was ordered to burn his own vehicle after using it without permission from his commander. The soldier burned the vehicle in a dry grass field next to the unit's forward position, resulting in the fire spreading out of control and allegedly destroying four MT-LB armoured vehicles and two T-72 tanks.

On the Pokrovsk front, several Russian soldiers were chased across the battlefield by drones. They took shelter under disabled Bradley, and it took multiple drone hits to finally penetrate the vehicle. So the fabled survivability of the Bradley working against Ukrainian tactics there, but still.

The Washington Post reporting that Ukraine's recent mobilisation efforts have been extremely successful, although kept low-key (so...thanks, Washington Post), giving Ukraine a signifiant burst of fresh manpower. Some of these troops have been sent out of the country for training. They believe Ukraine may have enough manpower in 2025 to mount a major counter-offensive, as long as weapons supplies hold up.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 26 September 2024 - 09:29 PM

[HoosierDaddy]

I didn't have mass conflicting social media reports as the new fog of war on my bingo card, but trying to make heads or tails of what is going on in Ukraine is impossible. You'd almost need a field army of reporters with a command structure to know what is actually occurring there.

[Werthead]

After the milblogger complaints in the last couple of weeks, it appears that Russia has deployed reinforcements to Kursk not to engage the Ukrainians, but to stop their own forces' looting spree.

Lukashenko gave an odd interview saying he would not be around forever and one day Belarus will have another leader. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Trump was apparently convinced to see Zelensky after the optics of him meeting with Biden and Harris but not Trump were spelled out to him. Nothing substantive from the meeting, of course. Trump did agree to visit Ukraine, but unclear if it would be soon, or if whilst the war continued.

Russia claimed to have shot down an F-16. The photo they showed was of an F-16 that crashed during training at a US airbase in 2019, but a Russian graphic design genius had photoshopped the world's tiniest Ukrainian logo onto the tail.

[Cause]

I missed the details but the house speaker has accused the Ukrainian ambassador of election interference.

Also trumps recent comments blaming Zelenskyy for refusing to make a deal seem to be foreshadowing his foreign policy loud and clear. If he wins it will be a disaster for Ukraine it seems.

I am surprised actually that Trump has stayed on message about Ukraine for so long. He normally flip flops according to expediency and the audience he is in front of but on this he seems to have remained steady.

[Tsundoku]

Follow the money and I'll bet you'll find an injection of roubles in there somewhere.

[Werthead]

Russian troops in Vovchansk now complaining about Ukrainian glide bombs hitting their positions with impunity. Ukrainian air power is now pummelling what remains of Russian positions in the northern edge of the town. Russian AA assets have not been able to provide cover on this area as they have been held back to try to defend Belgorod city, leaving the front relatively unprotected, and little prospect for the Russians to hold the rest of the settlement.

Ukraine retaking Vovchansk would make Ukraine's biggest success in retaking a large(ish) urban area since Kherson was liberated almost two years ago, albeit at the cost of the town being partially levelled.

A Russian rail line in the Samara region was sabotaged, but not fully destroyed. Freight has been suspended whilst repairs are undertaken. This is a key logjam on the train route from Russia to North Korea.

Russian partisans have claimed to have eliminated Colonel Alexey Kolomeytsev of the 924th State UAV Centre near Moscow. He had responsibility for the training of operators of Shahed drones.

Russia launched a major attack on the Selydove axis on the Pokrovsk front. Ukraine's Kara-Dag Brigade destroyed a tank, two BMPs and a "buggy" carrying infantry into battle. The attack was turned back.

A large Russian column was destroyed on the 26th near Kupiansk. The column lost tanks, BMPBs and MT-LBs in a push on the Oskil River near Pischane.

Current analysis is that Russia has moved 35,000 troops to Kursk. They've had to pull troops off the Kramatorsk, Vovchansk and Oskil fronts, explaining both recent Ukrainian gains in those sectors and also the halting of forwards progress there. At least one brigade was removed from Chasiv Yar. So far these reinforcements have failed to retake significant territory from Ukraine, but they may have averted the major encirclement that was being threatened a few days ago. One problem in this sector is that Russia seems to have lost the artillery forces assigned to defend SW Kursk Oblast, and so far have not brought up sufficient artillery to replace them, so are reliant on glide bombs. Russia is using glide bombs liberally on this sector (last week more than two-thirds of all glide bombs used in the entire war were launched in Kursk alone), but with limited results so far.

A Chinese-Brazilian peace initiative is doing the rounds, but so far only Switzerland has signed on. The plan calls for an end to the war, but does not mention the UN Charter or Ukraine's territorial integrity. Ukraine has indicated if these clauses are added, Ukraine may become more favourable to the idea. China, Brazil, Turkey and Kazakhstan have issued a statement opposing nuclear threats against Ukraine though, in what is a (very mild) reprimand to Russia.

1,470 Russian casualties in the last 24 hours, again towards the upper end of confirmed one-day casualties of the war.

[Werthead]

Russia has suffered serious losses of pontoon bridges. Ukraine is targeting them quite successfully, hitting not just pontoons on the front but ones that Russia has set up as semi-permanent river crossings in rear areas where bridges have been destroyed.

The Russian arsenal at Kotluban, Volgograd was hit by Ukrainian drones overnight and took serious damage. Doesn't look like it's quite as big as the three last week. Millerovo Airbase was also hit hard, and a storage facility in Yeysk where Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were reportedly stored.

Several Russian soldiers surrendered on the Kurakhove front, but they were then targeted by their own artillery, killing several.

Perun on the drone attack offensive.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 29 September 2024 - 01:47 PM

[Werthead]

Russia mounted an immediate counter-attack on Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, after losing control of parts of the town to Ukrainian thrusts. However, the attack was poorly coordinated and reportedly dozens of vehicles were destroyed by Ukrainian artillery and drones. Some panicked Russian Telegram reports that they may have to abandon the town altogether, although this has been promised for some time without quite following through. Without the aggregate plant as a lynchpin of their lines any more, holding the northern edge of the town has become quite difficult, but withdrawing to the reserve line would effectively give up most of the territory in Kharkiv Russia took a few months ago.

Russia is also counter-attacking hard in Kursk, with potentially some limited success: two minor settlements have been evacuated by the Ukrainians, because those positions were hard to defend.

Russia is also trying to advance on the Pokrovsk front but Ukrainian resistance has hardened considerably. They've settled for "straightening" the line of advance where it was dangerously exposed.

Some visual evidence that Russian forces have fought into Vuhledar from the south-east, in a surprise attack whilst the Ukrainians were defending this threatened encircling thrust from the west. This is a key move as if Russia can start entrenching in the buildings, the value of defending the large industrial facilites in the west becomes moot. Ukraine may choose to withdraw from Vuhledar as the position is becoming untenable, if they haven't already.

Surprisingly, multiple Russia media channels are denouncing the Brazil-China peace discussions even though they've barely gotten underway.