[Werthead]

Garak, on 07 September 2024 - 02:21 PM, said:

What's so special about this one? They've blown up plenty of ammo dumps.

This one appears to be a holding facility for newly-arrived missiles from North Korea. I've seen suggestions that more than 100 of them were destroyed in this hit. These are missiles that Russia has paid massively over the odds for from North Korea to augment their own very slow production rate, so losing a hundred of them in a single hit without them being used to hit anything is a big loss.

Ukraine is also widening its cordon-like ring around its borders in which it can hit ammo and fuel dumps and depots. The more it does this, the more it complicates Russian logistics, forcing them to drive ordinary trucks (sometimes ordinary cars) with fuel and ammo to the front over long distances interdicted by Ukrainian drones. This slows down Russian resupply at the front, which has on some occasions led to Russian forces having to retreat after running out of ammunition and/or fuel.

[Mentalist]

Rumour mill has it several Korean ballistic missile launchers and an Iskander were also hit at that location. Unconfirmed though.

Apparently, Iran has greenlit sending ballistic missiles to Muscovy. I expect a sternly worded EU resolution condemning this "act of escalation". That will then get vetoed by Hungary.

[Werthead]

The Voronezh arms depot fire has spread out of control, taking out what seems to be a huge amount of surrounding buildings. The fire is so huge that NASA FIRMS software is showing a colossal area of the depot, the surrounding industrial area and even surrounding fields and forests ablaze. Residential areas are being evacuated.

Ukraine has raised its flag over Niu-York, and apparently counter-attacks are continuing to drive Russian forces back. The Russians are furious that engineers were not sent in to build fortifications behind them, leaving them nowhere to retreat to. There are also indications of counter-attacks on the Toretsk front.

Ukraine has confirmed that special forces operations are ongoing in Sevastopol, Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Smolensk, Kaluga, Oryol and Belgorod. These operations range from active sabotage to reconnaissance for drone strikes.

Russian soldiers looted one of their own border villages in Belgorod, stealing quad bikes.

Russia has dropped two fuel-air bombs on Martynovka in the Kursk region. This is a Russian settlement with Russian civilians still living there. Unclear if it was a direct hit on the settlement.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 September 2024 - 11:24 PM

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 07 September 2024 - 11:24 PM, said:

Ukraine has confirmed that special forces operations are ongoing in Sevastopol, Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Smolensk, Kaluga, Oryol and Belgorod. These operations range from active sabotage to reconnaissance for drone strikes.

WTF? Why the hell would you want to give out highly secret info like that? Unless it's psyops ...

[Werthead]

Tsundoku, on 08 September 2024 - 12:26 AM, said:

WTF? Why the hell would you want to give out highly secret info like that? Unless it's psyops ...

Totally psyops. Russia knows there are Ukrainian agents in Moscow and Ukraine knows there are Russian agents in Kyiv. They'd probably be insulted by the intelligence of the other side if there weren't.

Meanwhile, this seems like an incredibly intelligent idea.

[Werthead]

The Russian economy is in an interesting state.

Russia has endured the sanctions well, but only by effectively buying things on credit and continuously raising interest rates to deal with inflation (somethin Perun does not note is that the current Russian official inflation rate is clearly a gross underestimate, but I think he wanted to exclusively use Russian official figures to demonstrate how screwed the economy is even by their own metrics). Russia can maintain this for the rest of 2024 without issue, and possibly for most or all of 2025. But at some point the bill comes due, and the Russian Central Bank itself is noting severe risks for late 2025 or in 2026, including the fact the defence spending is unsustainable and will have to drop by 2026 at the latest or will spiral out of control.

There's also the significant risk of what happens when the war stops, hundreds of thousands of workers return to the labour pool and the government magic money tap is turned off. The seismic shock to the Russian system could dwarf the hardships of the early 1990s (which were, it has to be said, almost apocalyptic).

[Werthead]

Ukrainian drone strikes reported in Murmansk, which is over 1800km from the nearest Ukrainian border. Most likely these are drones launched by partisans from much closer.

A Russian Su-30SM has been shot down over the Black Sea whilst launching missiles at Ukraine, despite apparently being out of AA range from Ukrainian soil. Interesting to find out what happened there (and if an F-16 air interception took place, but that's pretty wild speculation for now).

Turkey has reiterated its support for Ukraine and said that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine as part of any peace settlement.

JASSM missiles, with a range of 360km, will arriving in Ukraine next month. They will reportedly come with permission to strike military targets anywhere in Russia. This will be rescinded if civilian targets are hit (so presumably Ukraine can use them against airbases but not oil refineries).

Ukrainian drones have hit Moscow, with an alleged warehouse containing Iranian ballistic missiles struck in the suburbs. This is the first Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow in some months.

A pair of Russian schoolchildren torched a transport helicopter at Noyabrsk Airfield, Siberia, after being bribed by an unknown person via Telegram.

Now confirmed reports of the "Dragon/Dracarys" drones attacking Russian trench positions directly, forcing Russian soldiers to retreat. If they attempt to shoot down the drones, the drones retreat and anti-personnel drones instead blitz the trenchline.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 11 September 2024 - 08:06 PM, said:

...
A pair of Russian schoolchildren torched a transport helicopter at Noyabrsk Airfield, Siberia, after being bribed by an unknown person via Telegram.

Waitwut? *googles* ....oh hey, 5mil Rubles, who can blame them?

Quote

Now confirmed reports of the "Dragon/Dracarys" drones attacking Russian trench positions directly, forcing Russian soldiers to retreat. If they attempt to shoot down the drones, the drones retreat and anti-personnel drones instead blitz the trenchline.

I acknowledge the seriousness and tragedy and all other human elements to this story but i bet some Ukrainian Game of Thrones fans are having the time of their lives w this. I would be surprised if they aren't painting the things before they send them out.

[Mentalist]

The irony is that one of the Norils'k kids is the son of a convict who volunteered to go fight in UA instead of doing time.
The kids were caught cuz they suffered burns and went to a hospital.

I swear, you can't make this stuff up.

The orcs have apparently tried to counterattack in Kursk Oblast after massing good bunch of VDV and Marine infantry.
Reports on the UA side vary from "this is shocking" to "this is actually part of the plan as we expected them to try to do this sooner". There were also a few orc TG posts suggesting the UAF has meanwhile attempted another border crossing essentially in the rear of one of the counter-attacking brigades, essentially trying to trap it. So the situation's confusing to say the least.

Blinken and Lemmy were in Kyiv. The buzz was that Blinken would let Zelensky know long range strikes are greenlit, but when asked about it, Blinken said "I will take UA's proposals back to the White House", indicating there's no final decision (that we would know of). Ideally, we find out soonish, with a lot of lovely explosions happening (especially in Krasnodar Krai, that place is full of airbases and it's had little attention since spring).

In the meantime, it's a slow grind in the East, the orcs trying to consolidate their flanks before trying any pushes on more dense urban build-ups. Still too early to tell if they've got enough to make any significant gains for the remainder of the season.

[Cause]

I wonder if the White House is:

No important decisions that could rock the boat before the elections and hurt Kamala

Or

Fuck it, I’m not running anymore and can do whatever I want mode

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian Wild Hornets drone brigade has tested an FPV drone equipped with an antitank missile launcher, allowing the drone to destroy targets without losing the drone itself.

The Russian Air Force has received a new batch of Su-57 next-generation fighters. Although they are only four of them, it's the same four they were photographed delivering four years ago (confirmed by the impressive amounts of rust on them) and the aircraft haven't been finished to a high standard, with misaligned panels and extruding rivets. Just what you want on a stealth aircraft.

Ukraine has crossed the border in Kursk Oblast west of their previous incursion, apparently an attempt to trap Russian forces in the Glushkovo Pocket from multiple directions.

The AA shootdown in the Black Sea was carried out by a guy standing on a motorboat with a MANPAD, not an F-16 as previously suspected (and, presumably, vastly cheaper).

The US is to publish a massive expose of Russian media outlet RT's global operations and the degree to which RT operates as an arm of Russian intelligence.

49 Ukrainian PoWs were recovered today as part of a prisoner swap.

The Russian 87th Rifle Regiment of the 1st Slavic Motorized Rifle Brigade had put together its own drone-recovery and operations unit, which was extremely successful in providing recon and support for the ground assault. The new commander was furious at the non-standard operation of the unit, confiscated all the equipment (and, it's believed, sold them for personal profit) and sent the drone operators into combat on the front, where they died in meat assaults.

Ukraine's 46th Air Mobile Brigade achieved their highest one-day vehicle kill success of the war, destroying 26 vehicles in a single heavy assault. The Russian unit attacked them with 46 vehicles in one advance, and only 20 were able to withdraw from the field.

After pressure from Delhi, Russia dismissed 45 Indian soldiers serving in the Russian army and sent them home.

Zelensky has thanked Belarus for shooting down Russian missiles (!) when other countries have refused to do so.

Interesting reports starting that President Zelensky will meet President Xi in person next month.

[Werthead]

In Kursk, local Russian security forces ambushed a Ukrainian column, killing several several and wounding several dozen. Then they investigated and discovered it was a Russian conscript unit that was retreating, with a unit of FSB personnel sent to assist them. Fortunately the security forces (who are not official military) were unable to call in an artillery strike as they'd attempted.

Russian VDV units of the elite 51st Airborne Regiment (previously active in the battle for Bakhmut, where it sustained heavy losses) attacked Liubimovka, Kursk and attempted to retake the settlement two days go. Ukrainian forces destroyed five BMDs with mines and heavy fire, forcing the rest to retreat towards Koronevo. The Russian troops shot up the village in the process of the attack (recalling this is a Russian village with Russian civilians still around). This may be the first indication of Russian elite units being moved from the Pokrovsk front to Kursk.

Another 103 Ukrainian PoWs recovered today.

Apparently most of the Starlinks in use by Russia have been bricked and no longer operate.

Up to two battalions are taking part in the additional Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, so far with some success. Whether they can achieve the goal of collapsing the Glushkovo pocket remains to be seen.

Apparently "Dragon" has regained the initiative as the name for Ukraine's flamethrower drones, possibly after "Dracarys" was deemed to constantly require explanations from Game of Thrones fans to non-fans, sparking some debate about the quality of Season 8 in Ukrainian military discussion channels.

Ukraine has attached a flamethrower to its UK-supplied robot dogs, which so far have not been given a name. Totally ordinary sentence to write.

[Mentalist]

There was another prisoner swap yesterday, so about 155 prisoners (mostly conscripts) from the Kursk op being swapped for, among others, about 40 "Azov" servicemen whom the orcs have been demonizing and so are very reluctant to release.

Also, CentroBank raised interest rate in Muscovy to 19% yesterday. Feels like they wanna avoid the number 20 as long as possible.

Voenkors are in mild panic about UAF's flanking strike onto the "counterattack" originating from the Glushkovo pocket. Some reports put UAF in Veseloye, about 6 km from Glushkovo. Getting there would effectively bisect the pocket S of the Seym and put the would-be counterattackers in a really bad spot. We'll have to see how this pans out.

The push on Pokrovsk axis continues, but without any new disasters. Apparently, one of the post effective drone recons ran afoul of a particularly egomaniacal orc colonel, so he ordered the whole bunch into a frontal assault - which they did after leaving a farewell video decrying him for an incompetent, and surrounded by traitors and drug dealers. Z-heads are now outraged (after the expereincedd drone unit predictably got splattered as attacking frontline infantry are wont to be), and posting that this practice is disturbingly common and "something MUST be done!"

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 14 September 2024 - 03:34 PM, said:

Ukraine has attached a flamethrower to its UK-supplied robot dogs, which so far have not been given a name. Totally ordinary sentence to write.

I vote for "Quadzilla".

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 12 September 2024 - 06:39 PM, said:

I wonder if the White House is:

No important decisions that could rock the boat before the elections and hurt Kamala

Or

Fuck it, I'm not running anymore and can do whatever I want mode

That's called: Lame Duck season---unleash the Biden!

[Abyss]

Tsundoku, on 14 September 2024 - 09:38 PM, said:

Werthead, on 14 September 2024 - 03:34 PM, said:

Ukraine has attached a flamethrower to its UK-supplied robot dogs, which so far have not been given a name. Totally ordinary sentence to write.

I vote for "Quadzilla".

Cyrberus

[Tsundoku]

Abyss, on 15 September 2024 - 05:26 AM, said:

Tsundoku, on 14 September 2024 - 09:38 PM, said:

Werthead, on 14 September 2024 - 03:34 PM, said:

Ukraine has attached a flamethrower to its UK-supplied robot dogs, which so far have not been given a name. Totally ordinary sentence to write.

I vote for "Quadzilla".

Cyrberus

Rovernator?

[Garak]

Hellhound

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

The latest would-be Trump assassin seems to have been motivated by support for Ukraine:

Quote

social media accounts bearing Routh's name suggest he was an avid supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The New York Times reported it had interviewed Routh in 2023 for an article about Americans who were volunteering to help the Ukraine war effort.

Routh told the Times he'd travelled to Ukraine and spent several months there in 2022 and was trying to recruit Afghan soldiers who fled the Taliban to fight in Ukraine.

Kremlin says Trump shooter's Ukrainian links show playing with fire has consequences | Reuters

I'm a bit surprised the Kremlin isn't trying to claim he was a Ukrainian agent, or that Ukraine is trying to assassinate Trump. Wonder if anyone's been saying that on Russian state television or social media... "Those monsters are trying to assassinate our Donald!" OTOH I doubt that Routh is a Russian agent---not so much because it would have to go back to at least 2023 or 2022, but since they could have easily (?) faked more incriminating Ukrainian ties and implicated the Ukrainian government...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 September 2024 - 01:33 PM

[Werthead]

​
The Ukrainian "Khimik" special forces group as allied with local opposition forces and attacked a Russian-government Syrian base near Aleppo. They destroyed a storage cache of drones and munitions.

Ukraine has requested international aid assistance in the areas of Kursk they have taken control of, citing shockingly poor standards of sanitation and plumbing, almost completely overgrown roads and, in places, nonexistent electricity and internet connectivity. This may include a vote at the UN (which may see Russia voting against aid for its own people).

Ukraine has repulsed an attack on the village of Plekhovo, Kursk. They also destroyed a Russian ammo depot in Veseloye.

Another batch of formerly Danish F-16s should be in Ukraine in a matter of weeks.

Putin has signed an order officially increasing the total size of the Russian military from 2.2 million personnel to 2.39 million.

The Czech Republic is citing a budget increase thanks to tax-paying Ukrainian refugees paying more in then they are taking out, with them also playing a key role in addressing the country's labour shortage.

Turkey has halted the majority of sanction-evading trade to Russia via its borders, according to the Ukrainian ambassador. However, Turkey has failed to agree to impose key sanctions reached by the US and EU. Negotiations on these points remain ongoing.

A large drone attack on Ukraine was thwarted over night, with 53 shot down and 3 lost due to likely EW measures. Not one drone got through to a target.

Some Ukrainian forces may be within 5km of Glushkovo, but there are also confused reports of larger Russian formations in the area than expected. Russia lost a lot of vehicles in one mechanised assault, but it's unclear if they succeeded in gaining any ground.

Russia has completed withdrawing naval and air assets from the western Black Sea region out of the range of Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles fired from Ukrainian territory. This is raising the likelihood that current NATO-Russian posturing has been designed to warn/signal Russia to get military units out of the way so when Ukraine attacks, they will lose less vehicles and Russia will not escalate dangerously (despite current bitching about it). However, moving ships and aircraft hundreds of miles from the front significantly reduces their effectiveness. The Black Sea Fleet has effectively withdrawn from even Novorossiysk under the cover of exercises and may relocate to the new (but incomplete) port in Anaklia, in Russian-controlled Abkhazia. This has apparently not gone down well with the government of Georgia, but, given they have become more pro-Russian in recent months, that does not seem to be eliciting a lot of sympathy.

There is a lot of anger in drone units of the Russian military at reports that commanders are taking drone operators and sending them into battle as meat sacrifices, to solve their manpower problems. Some reports that Russian drug gangs are also paying military commanders to be allowed access to their units, leading to some units being incapacitated by drug addiction, or units underperforming in the field due to being high (!). One Russian PoW reported his commanding officer shaking him down and taking his money before an assaulting telling him he wouldn't need it, as he was going to be dead anyway.

45 airmen from Levashovo Airbase in St. Petersburg have been sent to the front line to fight in the infantry, despite both them and their families protesting. One report is the the Russian Air Force is recruiting people to serve with them "away from Ukraine" but then immediately handing them over to the army. This is already becoming known in Russian circles as "the deception drive."

One Russian report that Ukrainian scam operators have managed to raise $1 billion from Russian citizens through a mixture of scam calls and emails and blackmail. Some Russians have been tricked or blackmailed (or just paid) into carrying out acts of sabotage within Russia.

Microsoft is apparently planning to remotely stop their software working in Russia as licences taken out before the invasion expire. Russian businesses, including the postal service, are switching to a new operating system called "Russian Linux."

Russia has authorised the mandatory evacuation of the western halves of Khomutovka and Rylsk districts of Kursk Oblast, fearing a fresh cross-border assault by Ukrainian forces. Given Ukraine has not taken Glushkovo yet, that may be premature but we'll see.

Budanov has said that Ukrainian analysts have concluded that Russia's economy is likely to start experience serious shocks as a result of sanctions and the war between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. As a result, Russia is likely to push for a victory or something it can credibly sell as a victory by the end of 2025.

Ukraine's elite 73rd Naval Special Operations Centre has been carrying out night-time, stealth attacks using advanced technology and training used by British SBS and US Navy SEALS. This unit is responsible for recapturing Snake Island and retaking the oil rigs in the western Black Sea. In recent weeks they have carried out additional attacks on Russian positions in Crimea and on rigs off the coast. Their current objective is to force Russian forces back far enough to allow the reopening of Mykolaiv Port, which would be a huge economic boost to the country (Mykolaiv is located between Odesa and Kherson city).

Akhmat's commanding officer has told all Chechens in Ukrainian custody to kill themselves immediately, so as not to disgace their homeland any further.

Extremely unlikely reporting in some circles that Russia has started intimating that it may consider withdrawal from Kherson Oblast and possibly parts of Zaporizhzhia as part of a deal where Ukraine permanently cedes Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea to Russia, and western countries halt shipments of long-range weapons. File this under "unhinged" for the time being.

Most of the 100+ Russian PoWs released by Ukraine this week have been directly taken back to the front lines, instead of being sent home to their families on leave, as apparently was planned.

Meanwhile, the reaction of a Ukrainian soldier just released from captivity for two years, after being told that Ukraine has occupied part of Kursk and is fighting with F-16 fighters.

Azath Vitr (D, on 16 September 2024 - 01:33 PM, said:

I'm a bit surprised the Kremlin isn't trying to claim he was a Ukrainian agent, or that Ukraine is trying to assassinate Trump. Wonder if anyone's been saying that on Russian state television or social media... "Those monsters are trying to assassinate our Donald!" OTOH I doubt that Routh is a Russian agent---not so much because it would have to go back to at least 2023 or 2022, but since they could have easily (?) faked more incriminating Ukrainian ties and implicated the Ukrainian government...

The guy was a bit of a nutcase, and the Ukrainian government found him a nuisance and fantasist who couldn't actually deliver any assistance, and several times rejected equipment or possible recruits as being unsuitable or inexperienced.