[Abyss]

Cause, on 02 August 2024 - 04:02 PM, said:

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

Holy shit. I watched this TV show. Didn't really think it happened in real life.

You have to messed up psychologically to do this to your own kids.

The TV show - i presume we're talking about THE AMERICANS (which was excellent) - was based on reality.

[Werthead]

The Russian Ministry of Defence reportedly contacted the US DoD, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkvo asking Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to ensure Ukraine would not attack Russia on its "Navy Day." Hmm.

Russia has sold Iskander missile systems and EW systems to Iran, in further moves which may encourage Israel to send decommissioned equipment stocks to Ukraine (as the US has urged for some time).

Ukraine is redoubling its overseas charm efforts in Africa, today sending the Foreign Minister to visit Malawi. Some neutral-ish African countries seem to be moving to a slightly more pro-Ukraine stance as Russia's efforts continue to stall. Not Mali, though, which has cut official ties after Ukrainian spec ops troops aided Tuareg rebels in killing 80 Wagner fighters.

With Russian ground forces halted outside Toretsk, the air force is bombarding the town into rubble, using 1.5-ton bombs to completely level the place. This was after Ukrainian forces moved back into smaller villages near the town, possibly as a prelude to a counter-offensive.

The Russians mounted a concerted attack on the 79th Ukrainian Air Assault Brigade. In the morning, an armoured column was destroyed. A second attack was mounted a few hours later with similar results, totalling 26 wounded and six killed.

Russia launched a series of missiles purchased from North Korea into Ukraine with poor results, with several hitting empty countryside and one exploding mid-flight near Kyiv.

Ukraine is working on a deal to purchase cruise missiles in the JASSM/AGM-158 class from the United States. Given these cruise missiles have ranges up to a thousand kilometres and could hit Russian installations far behind the lines, something the US has been nervous about, I'll believe this when I see it.

A rare Ukrainian armored assault, with Abrams tanks leading an assault on Russian positions around Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast. Russia has made some gains in this sector recently, but Ukraine may be seeking to undermine their advances by trying to cut off the advancing forces with a flanking thrust, the type of dynamic armoured warfare we have not seen in some considerable time. Risky.

Russia has also refreshed its forces for a new assault on Chasiv Yar. Their previous thrust into the Zhovtnevyi district was defeated in a furious battle at the canal. Their new attack is further south and seems to involve trying to take a bridge over the canal zone, but this is creating a chokepoint the Ukrainians have zeroed.

Some indications the 41st Mechanized Brigade may be mounting a counter-attack in the New York (not that one) area, or at least has been going around destroying abandoned Russian equipment.

Nine Russian FSB agents operating in Ukraine were detained in a simultaneous operation launched by Ukrainian intelligence and police. The agents were feeding intelligence on energy infrastructure targets to Russia.

Update on Morozovsk: one Su-34 destroyed, two Su-34s significantly damaged.

Kadyrov has re-emerged in public, looking like he's lost about three stone recently. His health has been speculated about for some time, with rather more credibility than most such claims.

Sergei Kobzev, the Russian railways deputy head, has called an emergency meeting with staffmembers where escalating technical failures on the network were discussed. A lot of Russia's rail network is dependent on technology placed under sanctions two years ago, particularly the bogeys used for their trucks which come from Japan and are high-maintenance with a huge churn rate. Russia has tried to get around this with various schemes (including third-hand buying deals via China), but a lot of these loopholes have now been closed. The Russians have been steadily cannibalising some trucks and engines to repair others

Apparently Kobzev said "the complete collapse of the entire railroad network" could happen in the near future, which seems a bit extreme. You'd normally be expecting a gradual decline until large-scale failures happened over a long period of time, but maybe two and a half years is time enough.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian analysis of those prematurely crashed KN-23 North Korean ballistic missiles has found they, er, have rudder bearings from Toyota cars that have nothing like the tolerance needed for heat and flight.

There's been repeated panic in Rostov of a radiation leak at the Rostov-on-Dom nuclear plant, where one of the two reactors has been offline for weeks. The rolling blackouts in Rostov are preventing them from cycling water into the reactors which is kind of important. They have been working on a solution, so the radiation leak stories are probably fearmongering, but you never know.

Crimea is experiencing cholera outbreaks. We've seen these before on the Dnipro front, especially in areas where Russian soldiers are camping on boggy ground inundated from the flood when the dam blew, but Crimea's problem seems to be a collapse of the water supply through the middle of the peninsula. Three cities, a logistics centre and several military bases are impacted.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 August 2024 - 10:43 PM

[Mentalist]

Sounds like RVC doing another raid in Kursk Oblast'. I'm guessing it's to draw attention away from Kharkiv to try to recapture ground there.
Situation near Torets'k and Pokrovs'k continues to be not great, as glide bombs make defending insanely difficult.

[Werthead]

Expanding on the above, Ukraine and Russian partisan forces, namely the Freedom of Russia Legion, appear to have launched a raid-in-force across the border into Kursk Oblast. Elements of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade are also reportedly involved, although unclear if Ukrainian regulars crossed the border or provided cover from the border. The town of Sudzha, about 10km from the border, was hit with missile fire whilst ground forces apparently advanced far enough to threaten Goncharovka, just to the west. Russian forces rushed into the area to counter-attack but suffered heavy losses, including one helicopter destroyed. Allegedly one Russian unit found itself cut off almost immediately and surrendered, but take that with a pinch of salt.

Some suggestions that Ukraine may be threatening an advance through Sudzha and then turn south to attack Russian forces outside Vovchansk to the south-east from the rear, which sounds good but is probably beyond the scope of this attack (which seems to be roughly equal to a half-battalion). Vovchansk is approximately 150km from Sudzha, so an advance on that scale would be astonishing.

More likely is that this may draw Russian forces back from Vovchansk. Russia has poured so many troops into the front that there's almost no major reserves between Sudzha and Kursk, or between Kursk and Vovchansk, so Russia either draws on its troops there or elsewhere on the Ukrainian front. There's not much left inside Russia itself.

[Mentalist]

apparently Orc MoD has finally declared "the raid repelled". I was getting worried.

Meanwhile some Z-heads are reporting limited penetration across the border, and are expecting a stronger assault tomorrow.

I am still quite skeptical as to how serious this type of a raid could be, but we'll see soon enough, I suppose.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 06 August 2024 - 08:25 PM, said:

apparently Orc MoD has finally declared "the raid repelled". I was getting worried.

Meanwhile some Z-heads are reporting limited penetration across the border, and are expecting a stronger assault tomorrow.

I am still quite skeptical as to how serious this type of a raid could be, but we'll see soon enough, I suppose.

IIRC, the first cross-border raid lasted two days and was beaten back. The second lasted over two weeks and took the Russians bringing up a lot of firepower to finally dislodge it. So with this one, who knows?

[Mentalist]

Putler described the events as "the biggest provocation of the Kyiv regime" and ordered the GenShtab and the FSB to take care of it.

Meanwhile, z-heads have been whining about losing 11 villages in the border zone earlier this morning, and currently they are complaining that Sudzha is being abandoned without a fight.

Kyiv still hasn't commented on WTF is going on. Instead HUR's been posting videos of another raid into NW Crimea.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian and Russian partisan forces have conducted a secondary push to the NW of Sudzha, penetrating 15km into Russian territory and capturing 11 settlements, although several of these were abandoned as in the grey zone. The attackers have suffered some equipment losses, including EW assets, but remain on the offensive. House-to-house fighting in the western suburbs of Sudzha is continuing, unclear to what end. Some Russians have tried to flee the town but police and military forces are pleading them not to go because it gives a bad impression (!). Some signs in the last few minutes that an evacuation has been authorised.

Putin has apparently conducted an emergency meeting and during the meeting allegedly requested 50,000 troops be deployed to the area to eject the Ukrainians. From where these troops are to be conjured is unclear; Russia has several reserve forces near Sumy, Kharkiv and the Donbas totalling 75,000 troops, but to commit them to defensive operations would prevent them from being used for offensive action before weather starts disrupting plans at the end of the year. So far it looks like the Ukrainian incursion is at the half-battalion level, but the latest thrust might bring that up to a full battalion level. Sizeable but not threatening major disaster. This is more embarrassing and distracting for the Russians, who remain on the offensive at Toretsk, New York (which might now be under majority Russian control) and Chasiv Yar, although they seem to have been contained on the east side of the canal zone for now.

Unconfirmed reports that glide bombs and AA missiles have been fired from F-16s near the Kursk front, and Ukrainian AA units are discouraging Russian aviation from engaging. The fluid nature of the front and the fighting in Russian settlements is preventing Russia from deploying its own glide bombs.

A lot of rage on Russian Telegram. Residents of Sudzha, Russian regular military forces and some local government all blaming the Akhmat formation of Chechen military forces, aka the TikTok Army. The Chechens apparently retreated at the first sign of contact, dispersed over a wide area and then reformed quite a way back from the front to guard the rear echelons. They were supposed to be in the first line of contact. They have since posted a video showing them shooting a bush.

Oleshnya on the border has been encircled by two axes of attack close to Honcharivka, which may be the primary target in this area.

Kadyrov saying he thinks the target might be the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. Despite the name, the plant is considerably to the west and somewhat south of Kursk City, about 40km from the villages Ukraine has captured. Taking the nuclear plant would prevent a Russian counterattack and could encourage a swap with the captured Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. However, given the distances involved I'd say that is fanciful.

[Mentalist]

Yeah, it's 40km as the crow flies, but if you take good roads, it's more like 70, so I doubt it.

UAF seems to have secured the border checkpoint, though, so now they have a direct road access to Sudzha. We haven't heard of the orcs blowing up any bridges yet, which would be the main indication of their disarrayed retreat, so all we've got to go on so far are panicky voenkor posts.

EDIT: Orcs claim to be stabilizing the breakthrough with the reinforcements being rushed in, while also expecting second wave of the UAF assault. Situation remains pretty fluid, so we'll have to see if this ends up with any significant gains.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 August 2024 - 04:56 AM

[the broken]

I doubt they have a serious target, it's just to force Russia to waste troops securing their borders.

[Mentalist]

the broken, on 08 August 2024 - 03:41 PM, said:

I doubt they have a serious target, it's just to force Russia to waste troops securing their borders.

they are obviously pushing to the E38. That highway runs W-E and basically bisects the Oblast in half. A lot of it is also covered by the Seym river directly to the N.

The Kurchatov NPP is on the E-38. Kurs'k itself is largely N of the Seym river just beyond it.

The E38 runs to Voronezh, and further to the Volga at Saratov. All roads supplying Belgorod have to cross the E38.
Provided there's sufficient forces, that's where you wanna push to threaten AG "North" which is currently pushing Kharkiv Oblast'. It's ambitious and risky, but Kyiv might feel they were in a no-win scenario trying to maintain static defences in the E.

[Macros]

Attack as a form of defense.
Also make it real for Russia

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 08 August 2024 - 08:47 PM, said:

Attack as a form of defense.
Also make it real for Russia

Makes it very politically unacceptable to "agree to a ceasefire based on current lines of control" which is what the orcs have been braying about for the past half a year.

They were all about "Ukraine needs to accept the real-time conditions on the ground".... well, turnaround's fair play.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 August 2024 - 09:31 PM

[Werthead]

At WorldCon so keeping up to date with events is tough but I'll try to have a go.

The situation at the moment is that Ukraine has conducted a double-pronged primary offensive with at least two supporting cross-border thrusts into Kursk Oblast plus a supporting thrust into Belgorod Oblast. They've seized something like 500 square kilometres of territory and pushed the front on a broad swathe some 20km into Russian territory. Some Ukrainian recon forces and spearhead thrusts are reported over 35km into Russian territory, closer to 40. The attack is supported by armour, artillery, vast swarms of drones and HIMARS bombardments hitting everything and the kitchen sink. Ukraine has systematically degraded Russian ammo stores, communication hubs and transport nexuses in this area over the preceding three months. Ukrainian AA assets, including Patriot, have been pushed forwards and destroyed half a dozen Russian helicopters and at least two Su-34s trying to lend air support. Russian forces, including significant forces gathering for a possible offensive into Sumy Oblast, have been divided, driven back or captured, with at least 300 PoWs captured.

The entire Russian 488th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment has ceased to exist, either being wiped our or taken prisoner. A relief column relocated from Belarus, consisting of Wagner forces and possibly some Chechens, was destroyed in open countryside with 30 vehicles lost and hundreds killed or injured. This individual strike might have been the single deadliest HIMARS strike of the war to date.

With the entire Kursk front in danger of collapse - and it is - Russia has started pulling troops out from the Vovchansk front and away from Donetsk to relocate them to deal with the incursion, stalling offensive efforts on those fronts (a secondary benefit of this attack). Russia has wholly insufficient forces in Kursk Oblast to deal with this effort. How far and fast Ukraine can go is unclear, and depends on them taking the rail heads in the region, mostly the big one at Koronevo. If they can do that they can push forwards heavy reinforcements and likely fortify their main holdings, effectively taking a large chunk of Russian territory and cutting off one of the two main supply lines to the Kharkiv/Vovchansk front. This gives them a significant bargaining chip.

Russia's response has been lukewarm and slow, and Putin has apparently been so enraged by the operation that he has stripped the MoD for operational command of the front, instead putting the FSB in charge, which is insane. Some pretty pointed questions are being asked right now about how this happened, and how Russia can reverse it without losing recent gains elsewhere on the front.

[Tsundoku]

OTOH, now the Russians will have lost any sympathy for the Ukrainians - if they had any in the first place - and will probably be more in support of the war.

[Mentalist]

Tsundoku, on 11 August 2024 - 02:31 AM, said:

OTOH, now the Russians will have lost any sympathy for the Ukrainians - if they had any in the first place - and will probably be more in support of the war.

Most were previously indifferent. Those who aren't directly affected (those not in border regions) will continue to be indifferent.

The fog of war is still thick, UAF is doing very good OpSec. There's no static frontline yet, so things are gonna be super-fluid for a bit.

Unclear how much force is being rushed in to stabilize the situation. We haven't seen a secondary strike yet (the thing with Belgorod was a PR raid onto an isolated border village), and until we see that we won't really be able to guess what the op is trying to achieve. Ideally, you wanna make the push E to cut the main highway from Kursk to Belgorod. But that's a lot of ground to cover.

[Cause]

Can you lose a war by embarrassment alone, I guess not or it would have ended by now.

I don’t think Ukraine has lost the goodwill of the Russians, can’t lose what you never had. The Russian people if they even have the ability to call an end to the war will do so when the cost in lives and quality of lives exceed their comfort with the status quo.

[Werthead]

Back home now.

Ukraine claims over 1,000 square kilometres is now under their firm control, with the main line now pushed ~25km into Russian territory and individual units operating some 40km behind the lines, although there are some indications those are being pulled back now. Apparently HIMARS units are now operating from inside Russian territory to maximise their ranges; there are multiple storage depots, equipment yards, ammo depots and possibly a few airfields that are now in range from occupied territory. Patriot is operating close to the border.
Korenevo was almost besieged, but Russian counter-attacks seemed to block the advance. Ukraine still pushing but unclear how many troops in the area. Korenevo might still fall but it'll be a harder fight for Ukraine. But Sudzha, on the other side of the advance, has fallen. Ukraine has apparently used the rail office computer there to get information on Russian freight movements across the entire network, which may be of interest (it's also difficult to stop or shut off, without physically turning off every digital relay on the entire rail network of Russia, a notably not-small country). If Ukraine takes both Korenevo and Sudzha, they can reinforce at speed by rail, which makes Russia's position vastly more complicated. Ukraine has taken the high ground to the west of Korenevo and almost to the north-east.

Some of the Russian troops told to hold Korenevo have instead, er, looted it. In a clever move, Ukraine has started targeting bureaucratic offices of the police, recruitment and Rosvgardia, destroying physical paperwork, both in Kursk and Belgorod and also in occupied areas. Because Russia's record-keeping is sporadic at best, this has allowed some Russian cops, conscripts and Rosvgardia to go AWOL with no paperwork existing to prove they were ever employed.

Some looting in Sudzha was stopped by Ukrainian soldiers, which apparently impressed some locals (!).

Ukraine has also crossed the border into Belgorod, but that appears to be more of a distraction raid.

The distances involved are too large for Ukraine to credibly swing east and slam into the back of the Russian forces at Vovchansk (it's almost 150km away) but they have brought some of the supply lines into fire control, or almost so.

30,000 Russian troops are believed to have been pulled from Donetsk and Kherson. Some Russians are raising alarm bells that multiple Ukrainian reinforcement brigades have appeared on the flanks of the Avdiivka advance spearhead, which is only 11km wide at its narrowest point. If Ukraine could pinch that off, they could surround ~10,000 Russian troops pushing north-westwards from Avdiivka, which would effectively destroy the main Russian army grouping in central Donetsk Oblast. Some Ukrainian sources suggesting that is nonsense, they don't have enough brigades to simultaneously attack in Kursk and there. But you never know.

One German politician speculating that Putin can't survive this and maybe they can negotiate with a more amenable successor.

A military airfield just outside Moscow was hit and damaged, but unclear if any aircraft were lost. Some long-range cruise missile-carrying bombers were based there.

China has urged Russia against major escalation and made a proposal some are reading as a land-swap, which has infuriated Russia but Ukraine seems agreeable to (Ukraine has been playing an interesting game with China recently, and China seems amenable; I wonder if China senses Russian weakness and the ability to negotiate a peace deal that makes China look awesome, even if it forces Russia to give up more than they want).

Kursk's governor believes 28 settlements are now under Ukrainian control with 121,000 Russians leaving the occupation area, but a surprisingly large number of civilians have just decided to stay at home and wait out the situation. 

Breaking tonight is news of a Ukrainian thrust eastwards from Sudzha and NE from the border towards the Gir'i-Belitsa area. This would be a significant expansion of the occupation zone and would start to put the rear of the Vovchansk area in the picture. Still seems optimistic though.

[Mentalist]

Korenevo is gradually being encircled, as UAF is trying to cut the road to Ryl'sk to the N. That would make the life for the defenders very difficult.

There's also the district center of Glushkove, which is W of the current incursion, but it's on the S bank of the Seym river, and half of the ditrict is in the process of being sandwiched between the UA-RU border from the W and S, the UAF control zone to the E, and the river to the N. somehow I doubt there's a lot of troops holding the border there, so we might see a mop-up happening soon that will drastically expand UA area of control- even more so if the Z-head panic about forces being massed in Hlukhiv to attack towards Ryls'k from the W are to be believed- as that would put large number of Ukrainian troops to the N of the Seym.

According to Tom Cooper, the push SE of Sudzha toward district center Belaya is by a new, 5th unit. The orcs have also declared evacuation order in the NWmost district of Belgorod Oblast, Krasnaya Yaruga, after a UAF assault on the border crossing checkpoint at Kolotilovka. Control over Belaya district would allow the UAF to consolidate its flanks along the border, but also it would be an important stepping stone towards the main prize- the M2 "Moscow-Crimea" highway that connects Kursk and Belgorod.

There's way too much junk info out there (Uki YT in particular is full of clickbait thumbnails suggesting any day now we will see the capture of the NPP, or the city of Kursk itself). I don't believe there's any reasonable chance of taking Kursk itself, incidentally- because the main city is N of the Seym, and if the situation gets desperate, I'm sure the orcs will blow the bridges. The NPP is on the south side, so that is slightly more plausible, but we'd need to secure A LOT more ground in the flanks to make such an assault viable. And unless a similar second force is also getting committed nearby to the existing fighting, I just don't see that happening (and I'm expecting the second strike to be in Belgrod Oblast, to flank the maximum amount of relieving forces being sent in to stabilize the situation.

One potential downside is that "the invasion of the Motherland" gives Moscow a convenient excuse to go back on Putler's "no conscripts in the SMO" promise, without immediately looking terrible. They can toss kids in from all over the country onto the frontlines now, and it'll be some time before the grief-stricken mothers can band together to actually speak out about it in sufficient numbers. The upside is that conscripts tend to surrender quickly and in large numbers.

It's likely we are still some time away from seeing how this whole thing plays out, especially if there's a follow-up strike. So I'm trying not to be too hasty about drawing conclusions.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 13 August 2024 - 12:37 AM, said:

Some of the Russian troops told to hold Korenevo have instead, er, looted it. In a clever move, Ukraine has started targeting bureaucratic offices of the police, recruitment and Rosvgardia, destroying physical paperwork, both in Kursk and Belgorod and also in occupied areas. Because Russia's record-keeping is sporadic at best, this has allowed some Russian cops, conscripts and Rosvgardia to go AWOL with no paperwork existing to prove they were ever employed.

Surely even Russia in 2024 has heard of computers and the cloud? Can this really be true?