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The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

#2161 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 17 August 2024 - 07:44 PM

Since then, various allies (including the UK) have sort of warmed to the idea, not of combat troops but of engineers, trainers and rear-echelon personnel who could free up Ukrainian forces to go to other sectors.

There have been other interesting variations on the idea. Poland has also suggested that any Russian missile that enters range of Poland's Patriot batteries along the border is fair game, so Poland will shoot down Russian missiles overflying Ukrainian territory, allowing Ukrainian AA units (some are just a few miles away on the other side of the border) to relocate to more advantageous areas. It's Ukraine's allies taking a more direct role which is stopping short of directly firing on Russian troops.

It's also a powerful psychological message that Ukraine's allies will not let Ukraine fall, and if they have to escalate to the point of direct confrontation with Russia, so be it. That's a difficult challenge for Putin, as it risks the situation spiralling out of his control.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 August 2024 - 07:45 PM

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#2162 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 17 August 2024 - 08:52 PM

Some interesting analysis of what is happening in the Kremlin right now.

Putin is feeling betrayed by his military hierarchy, and in particular may be feeling the Prigozhin was right and he killed the wrong guy. He has marginalised the traditional military and has sidelined Shoigu and Gerasimov. Whatever loyalty he once felt for them has largely eroded, but he is keeping Shoigu in a pointless side-position to solely keep him in play in a neutral fashion; Gerasimov may have to have a public fall for failing to stay on top of this offensive though. Both these guys had a lot of personal loyalty for Putin, but the seems to have crumbled for Gerasimov in particular (Gerasimov is by far the more competent and capable of the two, and had some good performances to his name in Chechnya, but has not acquitted himself well in this conflict; of course he might argue he's been ordered to do the impossible with insufficient forces, so meh). 

Putin has put the FSB in charge of repulsing the attack, but has then put FSO officers under his close confidant Alexei Dyumin in command of the operation. The FSB and FSO have a fierce rivalry, and some reports that FSB personnel on the ground are pointblank refusing orders from FSO officers, even surrendering instead. Conscripts are surrendering at an even faster rate. The regular military is pissed off with all of them.

Amongst Putin's inner circle, the only effective person left is Bortnikov, the head of the FSB. He took a bit of a beating after the FSB's reported intelligence failures in assessing Ukraine's ability to resist the invasion, but has since circled back into Putin's good graces. To what degree all is forgiven (on both sides) is unclear. However, Bortnikov is known to have played a key role in convincing Putin that the invasion was viable; he might be the last person Putin sacrifices to pin the blame on someone else for convincing him to start the war, and he knows that. Everyone else is rubbish: Shoigu, Belousov (the new Defence Minister), Zolotov and Dyumin, the latter two being former bodyguards of Putin that he came to trust implicitly (reportedly Dyumin once shot dead a bear threatening Putin in his sleep during one of his wilderness adventures, but with a silencer so as not to wake Putin up, which Putin was most impressed by).

Dyumin is noted as being particularly stupid even by Russian loyalist standards, but he usually operates next to Zolotov and Zolotov is regarded as dumber than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills. Zolotov is head of the National Guard, but during a public spat with Navalny he got humiliated so hard that even the pro-Putin, anti-Navalny media mocked him for it.

In another possible sign of weakness, Putin has appointed his niece (actually cousin) Anna Tsivileva as Deputy Minister of Defence, in charge of the MoD's financial backing.

Moving away from professionals with a good track record to toadies and family members is always a good sign.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
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#2163 User is offline   LinearPhilosopher 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 01:22 AM

View PostWerthead, on 17 August 2024 - 07:44 PM, said:

Since then, various allies (including the UK) have sort of warmed to the idea, not of combat troops but of engineers, trainers and rear-echelon personnel who could free up Ukrainian forces to go to other sectors.

There have been other interesting variations on the idea. Poland has also suggested that any Russian missile that enters range of Poland's Patriot batteries along the border is fair game, so Poland will shoot down Russian missiles overflying Ukrainian territory, allowing Ukrainian AA units (some are just a few miles away on the other side of the border) to relocate to more advantageous areas. It's Ukraine's allies taking a more direct role which is stopping short of directly firing on Russian troops.

It's also a powerful psychological message that Ukraine's allies will not let Ukraine fall, and if they have to escalate to the point of direct confrontation with Russia, so be it. That's a difficult challenge for Putin, as it risks the situation spiralling out of his control.



Right... but what if putin calls that bluff. Or worse yet its not a bluff and its an escalation.
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#2164 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 08:42 AM

What if chamberlain secured peace in our time?
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#2165 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 01:18 PM

Poland and the Baltics, and to a lesser extent Romania and the Czech Republic, have made it explicitly clear they will never take even the tiniest risk of their countries falling under Russian control again. If Ukraine starts getting into real difficulty, they will send troops to help, and they may consider taking military action on their territory against Russia, even without the guarantee of NATO Article 5 protection (which only protects against an unwarranted attack, not assisting an attack against another country), even at their own existential risk. There is a very significant chance now that the UK and France would join them, and extend their nuclear protection umbrella over those countries, so any Russian escalation would risk Russia's annihilation (France's nuclear doctrine, without recourse to allies, effectively says that Russia can destroy France at the cost of losing its ten most populous cities and its military headquarters, which would effectively destroy the Russian state; with Britain on board as well, Russia would effectively cease to exist as an entity of any kind, yes at the cost of western Europe, but that doesn't really help Russia do anything afterwards).

This has been made explicitly clear to Putin, and some credit it with why Russia abandoned its original maximalist position of taking all of Ukraine and toppling Kyiv. Now the current objective is to taken the Donbas alone and maintain the land bridge to Crimea, and the rest of Ukraine will be left alone. That could change again, but Putin seems to have accepted that as an objective that would prevent the conflict spreading further.

For all of Putin's bombast, he's sitting there at the end of 50-foot tables because he's terrified of dying of COVID. He's not going to be risking getting vapourised or dying of radiation sickness any more than that.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#2166 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 01:49 PM

View PostWerthead, on 18 August 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

There is a very significant chance now that the UK and France would join them, and extend their nuclear protection umbrella over those countries, so any Russian escalation would risk Russia's annihilation (France's nuclear doctrine, without recourse to allies, effectively says that Russia can destroy France at the cost of losing its ten most populous cities and its military headquarters, which would effectively destroy the Russian state; with Britain on board as well, Russia would effectively cease to exist as an entity of any kind, yes at the cost of western Europe, but that doesn't really help Russia do anything afterwards).

This has been made explicitly clear to Putin, and some credit it with why Russia abandoned its original maximalist position of taking all of Ukraine and toppling Kyiv. Now the current objective is to taken the Donbas alone and maintain the land bridge to Crimea, and the rest of Ukraine will be left alone. That could change again, but Putin seems to have accepted that as an objective that would prevent the conflict spreading further.

For all of Putin's bombast, he's sitting there at the end of 50-foot tables because he's terrified of dying of COVID. He's not going to be risking getting vapourised or dying of radiation sickness any more than that.


Would Macron or Starmer really be willing to ensure the nuclear annihilation of France or the UK to save countries in Eastern Europe from Putin?...

Putin might consider severe covid worse than nuclear annihilation: being on a ventilator, weakened, debilitated by brain fog, dying slowly, choking on his own fluids... as opposed to a "clean" and fiery death (well, polluting the world terribly with radiation and years of atmospheric dust blotting out the sun, but still... a quick death for him, and going straight to Heaven (if he really believes that...)).
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#2167 User is offline   Garak 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 01:59 PM

Putin also seems obsessed with his legacy and wants to be seen as the Great Man that Restored Russia! Hard to do that when it's all a pile of ashes. Plus the people around him might decide they kinda like living.
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#2168 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 03:38 PM

What would actually happen if France decided to nuke Russia? Would France try for mass evacuations first, or would that give Russia too much advance warning? Would there be irradiated French refugees trying to enter England on small boats? Or would the UK join France in nuking Russia? Would Russia only retaliate against the countries nuking it, or would it also nuke the UK, the United States, and other countries that Putin has issues with regardless of whether they join in?...

Quote

few seriously believe the U.K. would really launch nuclear missiles against Russian cities if Moscow had first attacked a NATO ally and not the U.K. directly.

[...] the very act of a [U.K.] submarine launching a [nuclear] missile would risk revealing its location — information that could give Russia's forces the opportunity to destroy it. And since the U.K. would likely have only one nuclear-armed submarine at sea, it could end up sacrificing its ability to respond to or deter a nuclear attack on its own shores.

So, whatever the U.K.'s official policy says, it's close to inconceivable that Britain would use its nuclear weapons in case of an attack on a NATO ally rather than one on the U.K. itself.

[...] France doesn't have its own tactical nuclear weapons to provide a limited or graduated response to the use of such weapons by Russia [...] Russia simply wouldn't believe France would launch nuclear strikes against its cities in response to tactical nuclear strikes by Russia on, say, military bases in the Baltics.

Macron's wrong to think France's nuclear umbrella can protect Europe – POLITICO

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 18 August 2024 - 04:05 PM

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#2169 User is offline   LinearPhilosopher 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 07:40 PM

View PostMacros, on 18 August 2024 - 08:42 AM, said:

What if chamberlain secured peace in our time?


Hitler didn't have nukes and given what his attitude to his people was if he had nuclear weapons he'd have seen the entire world perish as a result of the failure of the german people to beat the allied forces conventionally.
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#2170 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 09:12 PM

Russian forces located a Ukrainian M270 GMLRS launcher operating near Kursk and destroyed it with an Iskander ballistic missile strike. However, analysis of the footage reveals that the Ukrainians had expertly replaced it with an inflatable replica. The real M270 scooted off and the Russians blew up what was effectively a missile launcher-themed bouncy castle with a $4 million missile.

Ukraine is interdicting the E38 highway between Rylsk and Lgov. Drones are having a field day destroying Russian military equipment and personnel trying to move along the road, and several stretches have been remote-mined by drones. This is not helping Russian resupply efforts.

Consolidation seems to be the name of the game today, though they are rumours of Ukrainian forces entering Tyotkino from the Vorozhba direction, suggesting that Ukraine is now going to take full possession of Glushkovo District as expected.

A very annoyed Russian shopkeeper has posted security footage of a Chechen soldier looting his shop in Glushkovo after being ordered to evacuate to the north side of the river, presumably before the bridges were blown yesterday.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
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#2171 User is offline   LinearPhilosopher 

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Posted 18 August 2024 - 09:23 PM

I also heard a rumor that ukrainians drove a t34 out of a museum in kursk and used it to fire on the russians, which forced the russians to destroy it which pissed them off.

Dont have a confirmed report though.

This post has been edited by LinearPhilosopher: 18 August 2024 - 09:23 PM

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#2172 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 19 August 2024 - 01:51 PM

The French nuclear suicide pact umbrella seems a bit ironic given how the French far right has been fearmongering about France becoming a predominantly Muslim country. If Macron actually were a devout Sunni reactionary his threats of Mutually Assured Destruction might seem more credible.

Though imagining a future in which Macron converts to Islam and Putin shits himself is kindof funny...
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#2173 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 19 August 2024 - 01:59 PM

Interesting signs that some Russian milbloggers are shifting to more balanced reporting because they're getting tons of money from western and even Ukrainian subscribers who want the Russian POV but no bullshit. Obviously that comes at a risk of annoying the Kremlin, but after that crackdown on milbloggers not towing the Kremlin line last year, they seem to have given up trying to keep track of it all.

The third and final bridge over the Seym has been destroyed in Glushkovsky District. It appears most Russian forces have retreated from the entire area.

The Akhmat Battalion has launched a PR campaign explaining their units on the front were outflanked by the Ukrainians driving back Russian regular army units on either side, leaving them with no choice but to fall back. They've also been quite scathing about the quality of regular Russian units and conscripts.

Kadyrov is continuing a weird campaign claiming he is best buddies with Elon Musk, and Musk has provided Starlink for Chechen units operating in the SMO zone. Musk has denied being in contact with Kadyrov, denied sending Starlink to the SMO or that Starlink even works there, and has also said he hasn't sent a Cybertruck to Chechnya and is trying to work out how that happened.

The Proletarsk oil refinery in Rostov is still burning three days after being hit by drones.

Russian PoWs in Ukraine, including some taken in Kursk, are recording messages in Russian for their fellow soldiers confirming they have not been mistreated in captivity, as Ukraine wants to exchange them for Ukrainian prisoners so has no reason to harm them. One Russian soldier had tried to kill himself with a grenade, confirming in training Russian soldiers are told not to be taken prisoner at any cost.

In a weird move, "Putin's squad," a group of OAP fanboys and fangirls of Putin, have asked Putin to help rescue the stranded American astronauts to help restore peace between their countries.

The fire in Proletarsk has spread to around half of the refinery's main storage tanks, resulting in several massive explosions. The Rostov fire department is sitting outside the refinery filming it. A refinery worker was screaming "What the f*** are you doing?" before being dragged off.

Apparently the fire department lacks the safety equipment to safely tackle the blaze so are refusing to tackle it. There's an excellent chance the entire refinery is going to burn to the ground, as it's being fully evacuated and safety warnings are out in force in Rostov-on-Don, despite it being quite a few miles away.

Unconfirmed report that the pipeline itself might be on fire, which would really screw over the flow of oil across south-central Russia.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 19 August 2024 - 06:45 PM

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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
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#2174 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 19 August 2024 - 08:46 PM

They've got 3 firefightign trains on-site, and apparently about 40 rescue workers already sustained burns. So they've basically resigned themselves to letting the place burn out. I think they're trying to just contain the fire from spreading outside the complex.

We've been seeing prices on high-octane gasoline steadily rising in Russia, but the diesel's been un-affected thus far. Since this storage facility is predominantly diesel, I wonder if that'll have any noticeable effects.

Still no confirmation about capture of Korenevo, but a company commander of 1st battalion of the 810s Marine Infantry Brigade that's holding the line there was filmed after being captured, so there's that. UAF is still being pretty tight-lipped about where they are. Yesterday they released footage from Snagost, but we've had insiders telling us it's been taken for about 5-6 days prior, so there's still a lag where they make sure the flanks are secured and there's advance forward before actually telling us something's cleared.

Meanwhile, while visiting Baku, Putler referred to the attempt to wage war on Ukraine as a "crisis". While a wild Lavrov appeared out of nowhere to comment that the UAF operation in Kursk Oblast makes any further negotiations "impossible". Which is nice, because we can now bury the idea of "let's just stop where everyone is and have Ukraine de facto accept the loss of about 20% of its sovereign territory with nothing to show for it".

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 19 August 2024 - 08:48 PM

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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#2175 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 19 August 2024 - 09:58 PM

Apparently about $200 million worth of diesel is currently going up in smoke, so I'd imagine that would hit the prices noticeably.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
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#2176 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 20 August 2024 - 08:10 PM

Ukraine has cut off and encircled a large detachment of the Russian 18th Motorized Rifle Division at Malya Loknya. So far, they are not surrendering and hoping for a breakout.

Porechny is also under attack and Russian reinforcements based there may have to retreat. These are both on the NE side of the Kursk salient.

According to Syrskyi, Ukraine has captured 1,263 square kilometres of Kursk Oblast, along with 93 settlements. This doesn't include the 700 square kilometres of the Glushkovsky district, which is now under pressure.

The oil terminal in Rostov is still ablaze, with most or all of the 11 storage sites now having been destroyed.

Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk are now officially frontline regions in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which means Russia has to deploy considerably more forces to the region.

Apparently some Belarusian soldiers have been engaged in Kursk, but retreated due to poor equipment. It's not entirely clear what what they were doing there.

Russian forces are digging trenches right outside the Kursk nuclear power plant.

Russia was apparently working with international partners (possibly Turkey) on a plan to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure if Ukraine stopped attacking Russian oil terminals. The deal is on pause due to the Kursk offensive, but the Russians may revisit later on.

Ukraine has confirmed a total war-to-date missile tally of attacks on Ukrainian soil of 9,627 projectiles. Ukraine air defences shot down 2,429, although a fairly large number of the missiles were not engaged because it was determined they were going to hit empty countryside. The successes-per-attempted-intercept rate is much higher. However, there were also quite a few times when no interceptors were available, especially early in the war, allowing missiles to get through.

A Russian drone operator, tired of being beaten up every day, waited until his superiors were in a meeting in a Storm Z field headquarters, blew them up with a grenade, and fled to Ukraine. He has now joined the "Freedom of Russia" legion.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#2177 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 21 August 2024 - 08:09 PM

Ukraine has attacked across the border of Bryansk Oblast further west (near the Belarus border) and destroyed a Russian border outpost. Unclear if this is a wide-ranging incursion or a raid.

The Russian Orthodox Church has deployed an elite formation of priests to Proletarsk to pray the oil depot fire into submission. So far, limited success.

Ukraine has hit Murmansk Airbase for three days in a row, inflicting heavy damage, though it's unclear if there's been any aircraft destroyed. An attack on Savasleika Airbase in the Novogord region has also destroyed a MIG-31, two Il-76 and damaged at least five more aircraft.

An S-300 has been destroyed in Rostov Oblast.

Another significant haul of prisoners, including from Akhmat. Unclear how many, but at least 17.

In a weird moment, Putin put his headphones on upside-down, apparently to pretend he has a big beard like Kadyrov. People seemed confused.

At least three pontoon bridges over the Seym have been destroyed by HIMARS.

Lukashenko has said he has no problem with Armenia leaving the CSTO and denigrated their worth. Armenians responded by egging the Belarusian Embassy in Yerevan.

Whilst Russian conscripts are struggling with a lack of ammunition or body armour in Kursk, Ukraine is teaching its robot dogs to play tricks.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
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#2178 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 22 August 2024 - 07:17 PM

In one of the oddest incidents of the war to date, a Ukrainian Kozak engaged a BMP-2 and BMP-3 at close range, before realising it was outnumbered and beat a hasty retreat. The BMP-3 proceeded to open fire on the BMP-2 and completely destroyed it, whilst the Ukrainians watched on in visible confusion.

Ukraine has hit Marinovka Airbase in Volgograd Oblast hard, using a new type of "shrapnel" drone which shredded several hangers. It looks like several buildings are ablaze, with fuel storage and possibly ammo storage areas destroyed. Unclear if any aircraft have been lost.

A Russian ferry used to provide transport across the Kerch Strait when the bridge is closed has been destroyed by a Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile. The ferry was reportedly carrying several tanks for fuel to resupply the front, so was pretty thoroughly destroyed.

Ukrainian forces have started moving into the Glushkovsky District, against limited opposition.

The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (a reconstitution, sort of, of the former Azov Battalion) has launched a serious counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces have been driven back around 2 kilometres and some 300 Russian soldiers have been killed, captured or wounded in the past two days. It's not entirely clear where on the front the attack took place.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#2179 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 22 August 2024 - 10:01 PM

Technically, it's Luhans'k Oblast. They pushed the front NE of Mar'yinka (no, not that one) and back to the Kup'yans'k-Svatove-Kreminna road. This would probably be the Lyman axis, if I was to talk in HQ-speak.

Their stated goal was to relieve pressure off the adjacent units, and they claim that they took up battalion-sized forward positions (about 4 sqkm). I wouldn't expect any breakthroughs here just yet, though.

The significance of the ferry (besides the 30-odd rail cisterns full of fuel that burnt, then sank) is that it was the last train ferry in the Kerch straight. Meaning, only the rail section of the bridge is now capable of sending rail cars to Crimea. Would be a real shame if something was to
happen to that part of the bridge (again)

Contrary to all the hype, I have serious questions as to how damaged the Karyzh bridge over the Seym actually is. Notably, Google maps doesn't a have a "road closed" marker on it and the adjacent road, they way it does for the other 2. And visuals make it look like a portion of the road section on one side is damaged, but just how badly this affects its overall capacity is unclear (unlike Zvannoye, where you have a collapsed section in the middle and narrow bits where a motorcycle or a pedestrian will fit, but a car won't). I mean, I will be overjoyed if we get a video from the orcs trying to bring something heavy across, and the whole thing collapsing, don't get me wrong. But I'm just not seeing the situation be as desperate for the enemy as I'd like it to be.
There also seems to be a snag in Korenevo, where there's the District centre (that has been taken), and directly across a stream is a larger factory town (also called Korenevo) that remains contested. Because of this, it seems premature to celebrate that "the road to Ryls'k is open!" as some seem wont to-nevermind the fact that probably 60% of Ryls'k, including the city center is on the "wrong" side of the Seym.

The upcoming weekend is Independence Day, so we are expecting a massive bombing campaign from Puller, b/c what else can he do to try to get the submission he wants. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Budanov & co might have something special planned, too, however.

since I'm involved with the festival (while also trying to squeeze in a wedding attendance), don't expect to have too much time to comment until Monday. But things are certainly picking up some steam as we're heading into September.

EDIT: oh, forgot to mention the ongoing mini-saga of the Great Rostov RosReserve Fuel Storage Facility Fire. It's still going (Day 5 now) About 20 of the storage tanks with diesel have gone up in flames so far (there's maybe 74 reservoirs total in the facility). The next ones to be hit should be the ones with aviation kerosene. The explosion is supposed to be even more volatile than anything prior. Casualty count among firefighters is almost up to 50 reported cases (there's suggestions that the actual casualty count is significantly higher). Since they failed to contain it early, doing water airdrops isn't helping anymore- you need foam to contain it, and that's problematic for techincal reasons. Basically all they can do is try to keep it from spreading outside the facility, and wait.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 22 August 2024 - 11:51 PM

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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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Posted 24 August 2024 - 12:09 PM

The Russians are wildly claiming that Ukraine is about to launch a two-pronged attack across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast, landing a brigade on the Kilburn Spit and sending two to three others across the Dnipro in 3-4 locations they mapped out during the Krynky expedition. The plan would be to drive to the coast through Russian defences denuded of troops to support the attack in the Donbas and cut off Crimea.

Multiple problems with this, in that I'm not sure Ukraine has the manpower necessary, it'd be chancy as f, retreating from the Krynky bridgehead only to retake it under fire would be militarily insane and the Kilburn Spit is not a very good place to put thousands of troops, as Russia can bottle them up there. It's not impossible but it seems iffy.

Other Russian sources believe that the Ukrainians will re-launch their offensive in Zaporizhzhia, seeking to push forwards to Tokmak (again) and threaten Melitopol (where partisan efforts remain ongoing), if not Mariupol. Their previous offensive stalled due to a lack of good mine-removal equipment, but Ukraine's capabilities in that area seem to have improved. The Russian forces in that area are also of uncertain loyalty to Moscow.

Yet other commentators doubtful that Ukraine can or will do anything of the sort and will continue to focus on Kursk, where there is still a lot of low-hanging fruit, and defending against the Donbas offensive.

Syrsky has been promoted to 4-star general for the success of the Kursk Operation.

Ukraine has agreed to a prisoner swap requested by Russia, recovering 115 defenders in return for troops captured in Kursk. Thousands more Russian troops, including many conscripts and Chechens, remain available for prisoner swaps.

Ukraine has deployed its new jet-powered drones for the first time. A Palyanitsa drone hit a Russian ammo depot in Voronezh and destroyed it.

ISIS terrorists took control of a prison in Volgograd. After a stand-off, Russian forces stormed the prison and killed the four terrorists, but also four hostages were killed in the process.

The fire in Proletarsk is now in its sixth day and is threatening to spread to residential areas. The Proletarsk refinery might become the first refinery to be outright destroyed in Ukraine's campaign targeting Russian oil infrastructure, rather than having bits of it hit.

Lukashenko congratulated Ukraine on its independence day and made more conciliatory noises about ending the war. Some Russian sources claiming there is widespread discontent in the upper echelons, some of whom are now pushing for a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, but hardliners are uninterested. Putin himself shows no signs of backing down.

With the sinking of the last cross-Kerch Strait fuel ferry, Russia has been forced to restart fuel deliveries by train across the rail bridge, which is making those responsible very nervous.

Alleged reports that Russia has deployed T-14 Armatas to Ukraine. There have been multiple reports of this but they never quite materialise on the battlefield.

Modi is visiting Kyiv and has called for peace. He has placed memorial toys for Ukrainian toys killed by Russia, and said he will mediate a peace based on territorial integrity and mutual respect when both sides are willing to do so (which is not now, obviously).

Russian soldiers have discovered that Ukrainian drones are dropping munitions in forested areas that resemble logs. When Russian soldiers approach, the log explodes with predictably injurious results.

The Vostok Battalion has apparently mutinied and told its commanding officers to stop with suicidal meat attacks on Ukrainian strongpoints. The command staff has, surprisingly, agreed (due to cripplingly high casualties and nonexistent success in recent recruitment drives) and deployed small-formation attacks similar to Ukrainian tactics. This has reduced casualties and contributed to some tactical gains on the battlefield. Fortunately, other Russian units have angrily refused to follow suit.

Ukrainian drones have remotely attached Ukrainian flags to multiple radio masts, water towers and even some buildings in Russian-occupied areas, for independence day.

Chechen troops filmed looting a Wildberries (Russian equivalent of Amazon) warehouse in Kursk Oblast rather than going to the front. Glushkovo has almost been looted empty by Russian troops, some of whom subsequently retreated over the Seym via pontoon bridge.

The Mongolian government has dropped plans for the Russia-China "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline to pass through Mongolian territory. With China still refusing to okay the pipeline, the project is now effectively dead.

Kadyrov filmed his son Adam engaging in weapons training with, er, golden machine guns.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 24 August 2024 - 12:11 PM

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