[Macros]

the cloud fell out of a hospital window

[Werthead]

Cause, on 13 August 2024 - 05:38 PM, said:

Surely even Russia in 2024 has heard of computers and the cloud? Can this really be true?

Absolutely, and if you're an IT person working in Moscow or St. Petersburg, you'll be using that stuff and, if working for the government, will be trying to get them to modernise, despite them not wanting to spend any money whatsoever. However, you're also in a country where the President still uses desktops disconnected from the Internet and apparently still running Windows XP. Records-keeping out in the sticks (and Kursk is, relatively, out in the sticks) varies wildly in type and effectiveness.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 13 August 2024 - 05:38 PM, said:

Werthead, on 13 August 2024 - 12:37 AM, said:

Some of the Russian troops told to hold Korenevo have instead, er, looted it. In a clever move, Ukraine has started targeting bureaucratic offices of the police, recruitment and Rosvgardia, destroying physical paperwork, both in Kursk and Belgorod and also in occupied areas. Because Russia's record-keeping is sporadic at best, this has allowed some Russian cops, conscripts and Rosvgardia to go AWOL with no paperwork existing to prove they were ever employed.

Surely even Russia in 2024 has heard of computers and the cloud? Can this really be true?

Computers? Yes
The Cloud? Debatable. Each ministry is insanely jealous of its records and wants to make sure no other agency could access them willy-nilly, so they zealously resist any attempts to streamline and integrate their proprietary databases.

UAF Currently claims it controls 78 settlements in Kursk (out of roughly 1100) Some pics surfaced suggesting they've reached the E38 around L'gov, and there's videos where soldier are claimed to be capturing the guards of the L'gov Penal Colony-2, which is only a few km S of E38.
I find these claims a bit too hopeful, but Tom Cooper appears to be confirming that "UAF has captured some positions along the E38 on the L'gov axis". I guess we'll have to wait and see, but if the UAF can bring set up sufficient supply lines to set up artillery on the E38, a lot of places can be threatened including Kurchatov itself.

Meanwhile, the orcs continue pushing towards Pokrovsk in Donbas, and Putler is trying to corral as many conscripts as possible to handle this incursion

[Werthead]

Ukraine has encountered a new problem with both the sheer volume of Russian POWs (well over 1,000) that need transport back into Ukraine and also Russia cutting off water and electricity into the area (although some locals have said they frequently get both cut off anyway), with tens of thousands of civilians needing fresh water and the ability to cook food. Some locals also switched to speaking in Ukrainian, reflecting the fact that people along the border areas of both countries had relatively close ties before the war.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian soldiers are leaving internet reviews of the services they've made use of in Kursk.

A massive 100+ drone strike on three Russian airfields overnight, with multiple explosions. Extent of the damage unclear.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to push in Kursk, bringing heavy formations up to engage some of the early-arriving Russian reinforcements once the recon elements realised they couldn't get through. The Russians are arriving piecemeal, which is not ideal. However, Russian engineering units are already building trenchwork formations some distance to the north of the current front, along rivers and more defensible terrain. They may be considering giving up the nuclear plant, although that seems stupid.

Russia was reportedly considering withdrawing some of its garrison from Kaliningrad to transfer to Kursk. However, Poland staged a large-scale military exercise on the border using some 40 aircraft on simulated bombing runs and thousands of troops. The exercise was nothing less than a full-scale invasion of Kaliningrad Oblast. Poland notified Russia the exercise was happening and no Polish military units got within 20 miles of the border. Russia appears to have dropped plans to transfer troops out of Kaliningrad.

Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces attacking out of Malaya Rybitsa towards Belgorod. One Russian milblogger warning that Ukraine might be looking to seize Belgorod city; challenging, but not impossible, and much closer to the border than Kursk city, not to mention catastrophic for supplying Russian troops in Kharkiv Oblast. Most other commentators mixed on whether this is realistic.

The town of Vnezapnoe on the western flank of the attack has fallen to the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians seem to be expanding their area of direct control rather than consolidating so far. Russian reinforcements really should have started to have made their presence felt by now, this is getting absurd.

Russian reinforcements seem to be entering the area piecemeal and have scattered to avoid getting destroyed like that column. However, some heavier units do seem to be close to the area. The only question is how fast they can get into the fight and if they can form a coherent front before the Ukrainians push again.

Some of the Russian conscripts who surrendered blamed the Chechens (Kadyrovites) for throwing them into the fight whilst they fled. The conscripts said screw that and surrendered instead, at least 2,000 of them so far.

Ukraine has deployed (checks notes) British-built robot dogs in the Donetsk theatre. They are using them to scout trenchlines and serve as recon in territory where aerial drones would be detected too easily.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 14 August 2024 - 07:11 PM

[Mentalist]

if UAF can apply overwhelming force and consolidate control over the E38 highway, then everything south of the Seym is very likely to be under threat. This explicitly includes Kurchatov and the NPP. Best case scenario, the complex isn't seized, but they are forced to shut it down anyway. That would be the least politically damaging, but most practically harmful outcome.

Incidentally, Ryls'k and L'gov both have their old city centres on the W/N bank of the Seym, so the current offensive isn't likely to result in the full capture of these cities, unless the Russians give up a bridge somewhere.
Same with Kursk, though I honestly think the orcs blowing up the bridges to sever the highway and railway to Belgorod would be the most harmful thing they can do to themselves. That would turn Voronezh into the only supply hub for both Rostov and Belgorod oblasts. And Voronezh Oblast is going to become the main target for a lot of drone attacks, it seems like.

That being said, I'm not sure just how close UAF is to the E38. We aren't hearing any good news from Korenevo, and it will probably take a few weeks to clear up the Glushkovo pocket, at which point UAF will have some additional troops to commit futher NE.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 14 August 2024 - 07:39 PM

[Werthead]

Russia fears a new Ukrainian thrust into Glushkovsky District and has ordered a full evacuation. This is the area immediately west of the incursion zone and is sandwiched between that zone and the Ukrainian border as it curves from east to north. If this area fell to the Ukrainians, it would almost double the size of the current incursion zone.

Russia has requested a prisoner exchange for the very first time in the war; every previous prisoner exchange was either initiated by Ukraine or organised by international mediators. Apparently this was at Kadyrov's direction to recover Akhmat forces taken prisoner during the Kursk offensive.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration is working to help Russians in Kursk who need humanitarian assistance or even evacuation to Ukraine.

India has issued travel advisories to its citizens to leave or avoid the Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions.

The battle for Koronevo continues. Ukraine has bypassed Koronevo from the east and west to encircle parts of the town, but is facing stiff Russian resistance in Krasnooktybr'skoe, just to the south-west.

Ukraine has captured a significant amount of Russian equipment intact, including at least one T-80BVM and a T-90M.

Russia has extended its band on gasoline exports to the end of 2024, at least.

Two days ago, Russian Railways halted all freight traffic from Belarus into Smolensk region through the Krasnoye border junction due to a lack of functioning engines. Two weeks earlier, the deputy director of Russian Railways had informed his subordinates that they needed to get on top of the situation or face firing squads.

[Cause]

https://edition.cnn....intl/index.html

I cant even imagine. Winning the hearts of minds of his own people.

[Werthead]

Haha. Medvedev has a luxury estate just NE of Kursk city, which might explain why he's freaking out. Ukraine is unlikely to reach the estate, but still.

[Mentalist]

UA took a full company prisoner. Including some Kadyrovites "overseers".
Also, a few kadyrovites were found hiding out in basements in Sudzha. The prisoner fund is growing.

UA is feeling confident enough to allow network TV crews into Sudzha, as well as setting up military administration to oversee humanitarian aid to the Russian civilians left behind.

Russian Tu-22 strategic bomber crashed in Siberia. They stopped making these in the 90s, and they got less than 40 overall.

orcs continue pushing in Donbas, and things are not great. Meanwhile, UAF still making progress in Kursk Oblast (artillery shelling moved N to the outskirts of L'gov, for instance), but due to opsec and fog of war, we will probably need to wait a while to see where the edges of the advances are. Voenkors got the gag order, so they've been pretty hush-hush about what the Russians are losing and where they're pulling back.

[Werthead]

Take with a pinch of salt for now, but late-breaking reports of a successful Ukrainian entry to Korenevo proper, the capture of Krupets and Kamyshnoe (after a Russian counter-attack that briefly retook the former) and two border villages in Belgorod Oblast being captured, including Vyazovoe. These are being reported as "too good to be true" but there is also some supporting evidence.

Korenevo is key, take that, secure it and hold it and this makes the entire operation a significant strategic success for Ukraine, denying Russian reinforcement or resupply to much of the area. It also makes it easier for Ukraine to mop up the area to the west (without Korenevo there are no surface road connections that area, which is connected by road to Ukraine).

Surrender count for today is at least 179, maybe closer to 200.

The Kursk-Lgov rail line has been closed due to Ukrainian artillery fire.

Russian Telegram channels discussing losses on the Donetsk front. Although Russia has ground forwards and achieved success, it's been at such a high cost that the Russian units engaged at the forefront of the fighting are severely under-strength and need rotation. Some reserve Russian units may be rotated in, but there's not a lot. Concerns that either they'll run out of momentum soon or will achieve success, but will be vulnerable on the counter.

One of the most successful units in the Kursk operation has been Major Kishak's penal battalion consisting of volunteer soldiers recruited from Ukrainian prisons. Unlike their Russian counterparts, these guys have been given training (albeit only three months', but that's three months more than the Russian prisoners) and positions of responsibility. The Ukrainians are also conserving their lives; despite being in heavy combat for over a week, the unit has only lost one man KIA so far. The battalion helped in the ambush of a Chechen patrol, with 80 reported enemy kills.

Lukashenko has called for an end to hostilities, and apparently a start to negotiations without preconditions.

A HIMARS has been lost in the Sumy region, the Russians managed to hit it with an Iskander. And Russian forces are grinding forwards in Donetsk, albeit at that heavy loss rate. Interestingly, fighting still ongoing in New York (not that one), despite reports of Russia taking full control at least a few days ago.

[Mentalist]

The situation in Pokrovsk is not great, the supply road to Konstyantynivka is within tube artillery range, and the enemy is consolidating on the last defensive ridge before the city itself.

Taking Korenevo opens the road towards Ryl'sk and the E38 where Seym bends eastwards. It also leaves Glushkovo district south of the Seym sitting ducks, especially as the UAF already started turning the bridge in the town into swiss cheese.

That being said, they are going to fight hard for Korenevo, so we really shouldn't get ahead of ourselves until there's solid confirmations.

[Werthead]

Korenevo is now mostly encircled. Apparently tense negotiations between Ukrainian commanders and the forces in the town, to allow their withdrawal, but Russian command seems to want their forces to defend the town to the last man, and there's been several fierce engagements already. The relief situation appears very doubtful in the near term, making a last stand in Korenevo pretty pointless. This could go either way.

Simultaneously, Ukraine has destroyed the Glushkovo Bridge (it's gone, the whole thing has collapsed into the river) and mostly cut off Russian forces south of the Seym, in the western part of Kursk Oblast. This was the only significant highway into the area. There are smaller, meandering roads crossing the river at Zvannoe and Karyzh, but neither are suitable for mass movement of troops, and the bridge at Zvannoe has been hit (but is still standing). Ukraine is now believed to be negotiating the surrender or departure of all Russian troops in the Glushkovo Pocket (believed to number over 700).

Taking the pocket would effectively double Ukraine's gains in Kursk Oblast and would significantly ease their defensive posture, whilst complicating Russian counter-attacks. The Seym is not the Dnipro, but it's a pretty sizeable river to cross under fire.

Ukrainian forces are also in Safonovka, suggesting they've straightened the line west of Kauchuk towards Korenevo, which also massively simplifies defence. 

In Donetsk, Russia has made some more progress towards Pokrovsk, amidst reports the Ukrainians have pulled back to pre-prepared defensive lines closer to the city itself.

Ukraine is also hitting Crimea again, targeting Russian defences around the Kerch Bridge and also hitting targets in Simferopol and on Mount Mithridat. Russian milbloggers claiming that Ukraine is preparing a major offensive across the Dnipro to retake Crimea, which I think everyone agrees is improbable in the extreme.

The USA has agreed in principle to supply Ukraine with the AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missile. This is a 370km-range ground-hugging cruise missile, somewhat superior to SCALP/Storm Shadow. This is not the JASSM-ER, which has a 926km range. That's off the table for now.

Vladivostok, Russia's main port on the Pacific, way over by North Korea, has been without power for two days, the whole area was cut off, apparently when routine maintenance at the local power station went wrong. Unclear when it will be resolved. The people are not amused.

Unconfirmed reports that Putin is scared most of Ukrainian engineers installing first-world plumbing in the occupied zone and giving Russian people washing machines, then it will all be over.

[Werthead]

​We now have an explanation for why Russia is not smashing into this offensive with everything it has. Some Kremlin sources believe that this whole thing is a distraction and the main Ukrainian effort is somewhere else. They're not seeing F-16s, Bradleys and most of the heavy equipment Ukraine likes to use in the Kursk offensive, and in fact Ukraine seems to be using a lot of equipment in Kursk it usually can't use (like Abrams and Challengers) because they'd normally be destroyed, but Russia doesn't have the defences in Kursk to threaten them. The Russians have identified heavy Ukrainian units on the border of Belgorod Oblast, on the flanks of the Pokrovsk offensive (which is starting to get very stretched, the flanks are lagging quite far behind the main thrust), and on the Dnipro in Kherson, and believe that Ukraine could launch a major attack in any one of these areas at any minute. They seem to have convinced Putin not to rush veteran troops to Kursk because of this, hence piecemeal conscripts in Kursk.

If Ukraine can pinch off the Pokrovsk thrust, that would be staggering. There are possibly 10,000-20,000 Russian troops trying to advance through that area, and cutting them off (the neck of the front is only 11km wide), especially further back along the line, would be a strategic victory unlike anything else we've seen in this conflict to date. But Ukrainian sources seem very sceptical it's actually that doable.

However, other sources are saying this is bollocks, Ukraine doesn't have 25 reserve brigades which is what it'd need to pull that off and maintain the Kursk offensive simultaneously (they have 14 at best, and several of these are in Kursk and helping the Pokrovsk defence, and most of the heavy fighting in Kursk is being handled by already-extant brigades), and if Russia doesn't do something they could lose a quarter or more of Kursk Oblast in very short order.

Russia has woken up a little bit to the Glushkovsky threat and have deployed pontoon bridges, one of which may have already been destroyed. The problem is that they can only deploy pontoons in the east of the district, from the destroyed bridge westwards to the Ukrainian border it's basically a swamp.​

Late-breaking Russian claim that a Ukrainian armoured force has broken out of the main area and is driving hard towards Kurchatov, which would give them control of the Kursk nuclear reactor, which would allow them to black out a vast chunk of SW Russia. Take with a heavy grain of salt for now.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 August 2024 - 10:41 PM

[Mentalist]

My prediction stands and can be extended a little bit: by the end of the week, UAF will control 2 more district centers in Kursk Oblast'

Apparently, UAF took positions 10 km s of the E38 highway, and already raiding up to it. The FSB (which is technically in charge of the Counter-Terrorist-Operation to expel the UAF from the 3 border Oblasts) is hiring people to dig a trench just S of the E38 in order to guard L'gov and Kurchatov. Speaking of which, Kurchatov (the city that houses the staff and families of the NPP) district would be the next one to get the evac order. If we hear about that (the evac order), I would expect them to start shutting the reactors down, which would be a significant dent in their energy grid.

[Macros]

How amazing would it be if putin and the whole corrupt regime was toppled because Ukraine installed washing machines on Russian soil

[Werthead]

Russia apparently earmarked 30,000 troops to withdrawn from various sectors in Ukraine to form an assault force to retake Kursk, but it was halted by orders from the Kremlin. There are some signs that things are moving again, and those troops from Kaliningrad that were paused due to Poland's exercises might also be redeployed after all. But it's all a bit vague. I get the impression there's serious arguments raging in the Kremlin and both the military and even Putin might be changing their minds day by day on how to respond. The current reinforcement troops earmarked for Kursk are around 10,000, which is not enough.

Russian forces have pulled out of Tetkino and fallen back north of the Seym, effectively ceding the west of Glushkovo district to Ukraine. That might be pretty much it for the Glushkovo Pocket.

Analysts are looking at post-Glushkovo plans. Once that goes, the next area is centred on Schekino and consists of a wide but lightly-settled area surrounded on three sides by Ukrainian territory (Khodyne to the west, Kucherivka and Bila Beraza to the north, and now Glushkovo to the south). The Seym is a formidable obstacle to the south but not the west, where Ukrainian forces could just waltz across the border at will (the northern border has heavy forests). This would also put pressure on Rylsk (population 15,000, three times that of Sudzha or Korenevo), the next big town north of Korenevo. That would then be ~20% of Kursk Oblast in Ukrainian hands (more if this attack shaping up south of Lgov and Kurchatov - the nuclear plant - to the east comes to anything, but the overnight excitement seems to have cooled a little).

Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk axis (Donetsk) were in danger of encirclement, after some units in the field proved reluctant to retreat and allow Russian forces to get closer to the town. Relief forces staged a rescue mission with Bradleys which successfully allowed Ukrainian forces to withdraw. The mission was more successful than anticipated, with Russian positions in nearby treelines completely wiped out in the process.

The 110th Mechanised Brigade, which itself recently evaded encirclement at Prohres and is now fighting east of Pokrovsk, launched a limited counter-attack that destroyed an entire Russian armoured column in the field. The Russians are pushing very hard here and there are some Russian sources warning they might exhaust material and manpower before the actual fight for Pokrovsk, which might be very hard. Russia may have fresh troops to commit, though.

Some of Russia's CSTO partners, like Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Armenia (which is leaving, but hasn't technically severed ties yet) have been asked if Ukraine's invasion of Russia could trigger their mutual defence clause and force them to send troops to Russia's aid. They seem to have replied in the negatory.

Vladivostok without power for a third day, most of Primorsky Krai (along the Russian Pacific coast) has followed suit. The only railway link to North Korea has been shut down and the situation is deteriorating. The power company has exactly one power station and one substation to work with, and the whole network dead-ends into Vladivostok with no connection to the rest of Russia, so if they fry anything, the region will be out of power for weeks or months until they do a rebuild of the power infrastructure. There's 2 million people in the region affected, so guess how that will go.

Late-breaking, as in the last 20 minutes, reports that Ukraine has negotiated an entry to Korenevo and Russian forces are pulling out. Spectacular if true. Awaiting confirmation.

[Mentalist]

If the UAF reaches the Seym across from Ryl'sk, that would create another pocket about 20 km wide from Bila Bereza (where the border curves N again) to Ryls'k (where the city is pinned by the river bank). It's about 15 km from the border to the main supply road to Khomutovka. The question is whether UAF has sufficient forces to make such an extra push.

Overall, Ryls'k is pretty vulnerable. Unlike L'gov, which has its center on the N bank of the Seym, in a river bend and a densely wooded area- think Izyum in reverse, and recall how long the UAF held on to that. So there's a possibility that UAF will try to mop up the troops to the W of the Seym (which are mostly FSB-affiliated Border Guards), but the main thrust is still gonna be to the E, along the E38 highway all the way to Kurchatov NPP and the M2 highway.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 17 August 2024 - 05:32 PM

[LinearPhilosopher]

https://www.cbc.ca/n...putin-1.7127500

Well thats interesting. Not sure what Macron was smoking.

[Mentalist]

LinearPhilosopher, on 17 August 2024 - 06:09 PM, said:

https://www.cbc.ca/n...putin-1.7127500

Well thats interesting. Not sure what Macron was smoking.

Back in Feb, as UAF was about to be pushed out of Avdiyivka, and US Aid package was still stuck in Congress, Macron dropped a suggestion that French troops might have to intervene if the orcs broke through, and were threatening Odessa. This wasn't a particularly meaningful remark (since, y'know, they still need to cross the river again before that happened), but even the hint of smth like that happening made them all scurry.

We've seen a lot more enthusiasm from the Baltic ministers to the idea since, especially since it's now pretty obvious Moscow is basically out of reserves, which is why it's now planning to plug the holes caused by the Kursk incursion with hundreds, if not thousands of untrained conscripts. Some of them are being mustered out as soon as they swear their oath (which is less than a month into their training/service)

Just in case you didn't think their future was bleak enough.