[Mentalist]

Cause, on 08 September 2022 - 03:10 PM, said:

Well according Putin Russia hasn’t lost anything. I wonder how many Russian lives it takes to add up to something.

Does Ukraine plan to fight for all their territory pre 2014, including crimea or is the ambition just to reverse the more recent Russian aggression.

They want it all.

During March when they were trying to negotiate in Instambul, they were willing to settle for a pre-Feb 24th retreat, followed by "prolonged negotiations" over the status of Crimea and occupied parts of Donbas- in exchange for not joining NATO, and maybe discussing some concessions re "denazification" and status of Russian language.

When the negotiations broke down, and the atrocities in Bucha were discovered, the rhetoric changed and has only been escalating since. Yesterday, the Commander in Chief, Zaluzhny published a paper explaining that the war will not end until Ukraine has regained control over all of its internationally recognized territory, AND Ukraine has the means to deter Russia from striking at Ukraine from its own borders- meaning, until Ukraine has long-range retaliation capacity. He fully expects the need to take the war across the border to ensure there's no artillery or MLRS within direct proximity of the border to shell major population centers (like Kharkiv or Luhansk, which are only 30km away from the border).

[Werthead]

Looks like the Ukrainians have widened the Kup'yansk offensive to include Sen'kove to the south. Russian commentators spitting fury, accusing the Kremlin of incompetence and treason. And Russian troops in Izyum saying they are expecting to have a "hot night."

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 08 September 2022 - 06:29 PM, said:

Looks like the Ukrainians have widened the Kup'yansk offensive to include Sen'kove to the south. Russian commentators spitting fury, accusing the Kremlin of incompetence and treason. And Russian troops in Izyum saying they are expecting to have a "hot night."

They aren't running for their lives to get to Oskil?

Sigh. Of course they aren't.

Morons.

[Werthead]

Lots of shrieking on Russian Telegram that the reason the Kharkiv front was under-defended was that units were pulled out to take part in the utterly pointless Vostok-22 exercises in Siberia.

That has to be BS, surely.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 08 September 2022 - 07:31 PM, said:

Lots of shrieking on Russian Telegram that the reason the Kharkiv front was under-defended was that units were pulled out to take part in the utterly pointless Vostok-22 exercises in Siberia.

That has to be BS, surely.

They need someone that "stabbed them in the back" to pin this catastrophe on.

Strelkov is already asking for NKVD to root out "the traitors who must have been involved"

[Werthead]

Ukrainians have placed the Ukrainian flag on top of a tall radio tower outside Yasynuvate. That's almost overlooking the Oskil substantially to the south of Kup'yansk. Some suggestions it was partisans rather than the military, but a good sign that the Russian presence in the area has evaporated.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 08 September 2022 - 09:52 PM, said:

Ukrainians have placed the Ukrainian flag on top of a tall radio tower outside Yasynuvate. That's almost overlooking the Oskil substantially to the south of Kup'yansk. Some suggestions it was partisans rather than the military, but a good sign that the Russian presence in the area has evaporated.

That's 10 km away from the 2nd bridge.

There's also a photo that's been geolocated to be just outside Vesele, 20 km N from Izyum along the main highway from Kharkiv.

Arestovych mentioned that UAF is pushing Izyum from the S and took Dovhen'ke. No confirmations of this though.

And CIT is reporting that 3rd AC is being rapidly re-deployed into Belgorod Oblast to relieve Kup'yans'k.

a) this could get messy.
b ) as soon as 3rd AC is committed in Kharkiv, UAF should (if they have sufficient forces) strike somewhere else.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 September 2022 - 11:18 PM

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have captured Lt. General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the West group on the Kharkiv front. That's quite a scalp.

A Russian document has leaked online saying that, as of 28 August, the families of dead soldiers in the Russian Federation have been paid 361.4 billion roubles, 7.4 million each. This would suggest 48,383 confirmed Russian deaths. Reportedly, not including DPR/LPR deaths, and they have lost many, many thousands dead apiece.

Ukrainian troops on the outskirts of Kup'yansk.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 09 September 2022 - 12:36 PM, said:

The Ukrainians have captured Lt. General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the West group on the Kharkiv front. That's quite a scalp.

A Russian document has leaked online saying that, as of 28 August, the families of dead soldiers in the Russian Federation have been paid 361.4 billion roubles, 7.4 million each. This would suggest 48,383 confirmed Russian deaths. Reportedly, not including DPR/LPR deaths, and they have lost many, many thousands dead apiece.

Ukrainian troops on the outskirts of Kup'yansk.

Sychevoi isn't confirmed.

Reports that the orcs blew the bridge in Kup'yansk. This leaves the old city on the Ukrainian side, while the industrial districts and the railyard are on the Riscsist bank of the river.

UAF also reportedly in control over the Horokhovatka bridge, and recon groups spotted in the fields between Izyum and Oskil..

Also, apparently a new breakthrough on the Inhulets bridgehead, taking both Bruskins'ke and Chkalove.
That would both cut the (shortest) supply road to Beryslav for the troops along the inhulets from Davydiv Brid to Arkhangel'ske, but also put UAF within 30 km of reaching the river to cut them off completely.

[Werthead]

Quote

Sychevoi isn't confirmed.

Reports that the orcs blew the bridge in Kup'yansk. This leaves the old city on the Ukrainian side, while the industrial districts and the railyard are on the Riscsist bank of the river.

UAF also reportedly in control over the Horokhovatka bridge, and recon groups spotted in the fields between Izyum and Oskil..

Also, apparently a new breakthrough on the Inhulets bridgehead, taking both Bruskins'ke and Chkalove.
That would both cut the (shortest) supply road to Beryslav for the troops along the inhulets from Davydiv Brid to Arkhangel'ske, but also put UAF within 30 km of reaching the river to cut them off completely.

I've also seen a report of an attack on Vasylivka, which is the first bit of solid news from the Zaporizhzhia front I've seen for a while. Possibly a long-range attack rather than troops on the ground, maybe a HARMS strike as it looks a radar vehicle was among those destroyed. HARMS seems to be becoming as effective as HIMARS at throwing Russian forces into confusion, especially as it clears the skies for TB-2 and other drones and aircraft.

[Werthead]

I'd take this with a pinch of salt for now, but a report that a Russian reinforcement convoy has been caught between Izyum and Oskil, which the Ukrainians have entered in the past hour. The convoy surrendered, allegedly 3,000 Russians taken prisoner.

I'd wait for that to be confirmed before believing it. However, reports of Ukrainian forces in Oskil and Kapitolivka just to the NW appear somewhat more credible, cutting off Izyum completely on almost every side.

The Russian military has finally announced they are sending reinforcements to Izyum. I suspect that might be a bit on the late side.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 09 September 2022 - 05:13 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 09 September 2022 - 05:08 PM, said:

I'd take this with a pinch of salt for now, but a report that a Russian reinforcement convoy has been caught between Izyum and Oskil, which the Ukrainians have entered in the past hour. The convoy surrendered, allegedly 3,000 Russians taken prisoner.

I'd wait for that to be confirmed before believing it. However, reports of Ukrainian forces in Oskil and Kapitolivka just to the NW appear somewhat more credible, cutting off Izyum completely on almost every side.

The Russian military has finally announced they are sending reinforcements to Izyum. I suspect that might be a bit on the late side.

Oskil to Izyum- 12.5km
Oskil to Kapitolivka- 6.5 km.

3k reinforcements? *doubt*

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 09 September 2022 - 05:21 PM, said:

Oskil to Izyum- 12.5km
Oskil to Kapitolivka- 6.5 km.

3k reinforcements? *doubt*

That was my thought. There's good news and then there's going over the top with it. The successes of the past three days do not require further embellishment. OTOH, the Russian tactics elsewhere are that stupid that you feel you can't entirely rule out any possibility, no matter how ludicrous.

[Mentalist]

Ionno if I believe that UAF took the railway on the NE outskirt of Izyum, and some orcs started to surrender.

But I do believe that the offensive towards Svyatohirs'k and Lyman is underway

EDIT: If I am to believe even a third of what we are hearing, the Izyum army group no longer exists.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 September 2022 - 07:42 PM

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 09 September 2022 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ionno if I believe that UAF took the railway on the NE outskirt of Izyum, and some orcs started to surrender.

But I do believe that the offensive towards Svyatohirs'k and Lyman is underway

EDIT: If I am to believe even a third of what we are hearing, the Izyum army group no longer exists.

Russian reporters filming from Izyum centre that everything is fine and nobody should worry. Then about three hours later they were running for the hills before the "single artery" that remained open closed. It's not even clear they got out of the city before the lines closed around it.

One Russian military officer (allegedly) on the front has said he now believes that Russia is facing its greatest military defeat since 1943. He seems to be subtly suggesting that one or both of Shoigu and Gerasimov will have to be fired.

Also now reports of fighting in a refinery near Lysychansk, probably partisans.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 09 September 2022 - 09:38 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 09 September 2022 - 09:21 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 09 September 2022 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ionno if I believe that UAF took the railway on the NE outskirt of Izyum, and some orcs started to surrender.

But I do believe that the offensive towards Svyatohirs'k and Lyman is underway

EDIT: If I am to believe even a third of what we are hearing, the Izyum army group no longer exists.

Russian reporters filming from Izyum centre that everything is fine and nobody should worry. Then about three hours later they were running for the hills before the "single artery" that remained open closed. It's not even clear they got out of the city before the lines closed around it.

One Russian military officer (allegedly) on the front has said he now believes that Russia is facing its greatest military defeat since 1943. He seems to be subtly suggesting that one or both of Shoigu and Gerasimov will have to be fired.

Also now reports of fighting in a refinery near Lysychansk, probably partisans.

nope, that would be the 93rd Mech

The refinery is in Verkhnokam'yanka, only 6 km from the "edge of grey zone" b/w Verkhnokam'yans'ke and Spirne, which the 93rd allegedly kicked the orcs out of last week. So I can definitely see the "Cold Ravine" boys pushing forward.

[Werthead]

This tweet says that Svyatohirs'k and Lyman have been evacuated and the Russians are bailing without a fight.

I would have said too good to be true a few weeks ago, but maybe not now.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 09 September 2022 - 11:09 PM, said:

This tweet says that Svyatohirs'k and Lyman have been evacuated and the Russians are bailing without a fight.

I would have said too good to be true a few weeks ago, but maybe not now.

UAF pushed Yampil' too.


The question becomes, will they try to go for Kreminna, or Svatove to keep the hammer blows coming?

[Tsundoku]

Mentalist, on 09 September 2022 - 01:04 PM, said:

Werthead, on 09 September 2022 - 12:36 PM, said:

The Ukrainians have captured Lt. General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the West group on the Kharkiv front. That's quite a scalp.

A Russian document has leaked online saying that, as of 28 August, the families of dead soldiers in the Russian Federation have been paid 361.4 billion roubles, 7.4 million each. This would suggest 48,383 confirmed Russian deaths. Reportedly, not including DPR/LPR deaths, and they have lost many, many thousands dead apiece.

Ukrainian troops on the outskirts of Kup'yansk.

Sychevoi isn't confirmed.

It is now.

https://www.news.com...94e77013dbbc8b1

"Video confirms Putin’s pain in Ukraine as footage emerges of captured general
Vladimir Putin has been dealt a humiliating blow as footage of a captured, bloodied Russian emerged. His identity is bad news for Russia.

Vladimir Putin has suffered a humiliating blow at the hands of Ukrainian forces as footage emerges of what appears to be a captured high-ranking Russian General.

It is understood the captive, shown on his knees bloodied and in handcuffs, is Colonel General Andrei Sychevoi.

Sychevoi is pictured among several other Russian fighters.

The commanding officer was reportedly captured by the Ukrainian resistance amid a counteroffensive operation in the Kharkiv region..."

[Mentalist]

Russian TGs saying UAF controls 2/3s of Kup'yans'k (everything W of the river)

oh, and Izyum surrendered.

I'm going to bed now. Who the hell knows where the frontline will be when I wake up?