Werthead, on 19 September 2022 - 11:52 AM, said:
At the moment Ukrainian forces have been geolocated in Bilohorivka, 7 miles west of Lysychansk, capturing it in an apparent surprise advance on an axis the Russians were not expecting. Some reports that Russian forces in the immediate Lysychansk area had been fed into the Soledar-Bakhmut front to the south, despite protestations that Lysychansk was no longer secure. There's been repeated fighting in the refinery towns just SW of Lysychansk for months and Lysychansk, unlike Severodonetsk, is vulnerable to a counter-attack because it doesn't have a large river defending it.
The advance to the NW is stalled at Lyman, but Ukrainian consolidation of the lines to the NW after the fall of Izyum means that Ukrainian forces can possibly bypass Lyman to the north and then cut it off to force a surrender or a negotiated withdrawal. Some Russian Telegram sources are now complaining that the northern sectors of Luhansk Oblast are vulnerable because Russia is diverting reinforcements to Kherson and south to reinforce the minor gains around Bakhmut and they could lose the entire area. Russian media is also taking a line that especially the Luhansk People's Republic's military forces have fought badly and let down the entire Russian side and maybe should be abandoned, which would be quite something. If Russia is even thinking of writing off Luhansk, than Donetsk can follow and then...why the hell are they even in Ukraine in the first place and what have they given 50,000 lives for?
The orcs were supposedly told to hold Lyman at any cost. Though it's probably a stalling tactic, while they rush whatever they can to set up a new defense along the Krasna river (Kreminna-Svatove-Troits'ke) to protect their last, single-lane railway from Belgorod Oblast' to Donbas. Losing it means all their supply routes need to be rerouted through Rostov Oblast first.
Of course, if the surfacing rumours that the UAF is already in Lysychansk have any credence (the video of Bilohorivka was released yesterday, meaning it was secured at least 3 days ago, and we've had rumors of UAF being in the area and even crossing the Donets' there over a week back, so it's not THAT farfetched), then if they can cross into Severodonets'k and Rubizhne, then this line to keep the UAF from advancing eastwards from Kharkiv becomes pointless, Rubizhne is already to the E of it, on the same (N) bank of the Donets'
While I do not expect an immediate collapse in this region, in the mid-term, holding Luhans'k Oblast' N of the Donets' isn't viable without major manpower advantage. So if the UAF is able to regain Lysychans'k, or the entire agglomerations (including Severodonets'k and Rubizhne), then the "Battle of Donbas" is largely back to the positions in May. Except the orcs will have degraded about 75% of their standing army and lost their ability to threaten encirclement via Izyum. And, obviously, the UAF now has the resources to hold and defend Kup'yans'k, which it lacked at the offset of the war. And the Ruscist's overwhelming advantage in artillery is reduced via HIMARS strikes.
The problem with the gene pool is that there's no lifeguard
THE CONTESTtm WINNER--чемпіон самоконтролю
Jump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:
And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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