[Werthead]

Video footage on the tank assault on Kostromka.

Yup, looks like Verbivka has been taken, leaving Balakliya enveloped from the west, north and south. Also looks like some Russian forces have been cut off in Bayrak to the south after the bridge was destroyed.

Looks like a partisan bombing in Berdyansk, killed a senior Russian commander, identity so far unknown.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 06 September 2022 - 06:03 PM, said:

Video footage on the tank assault on Kostromka.

Yup, looks like Verbivka has been taken, leaving Balakliya enveloped from the west, north and south. Also looks like some Russian forces have been cut off in Bayrak to the south after the bridge was destroyed.

Looks like a partisan bombing in Berdyansk, killed a senior Russian commander, identity so far unknown.

? It's Colonel Bardin, the gauleiter of Berdyansk

Apparently a bunch of SOBR (SWAT spetsnaz) from Samara and Bashkorostan are surrounded in Balakliya, and announced they'll fight to the death. I have a sneaking suspicion the MoD and Rosgvardiya decided to manufacture some martyrs to inspire the next wave of "volunteers"

The real question is, how far back did the Ruscist front collapse? If the UAF are able break through to the M03, whatever is left in Izyum needs to really start planning a goodwill relocation to the E of Oskil. Which also puts an end to any attempts to block Slov'yans'k from the NW and relieves a lot of UAF troops.

[Tsundoku]

I just hope the Ukrainians haven't blown their load prematurely, militarily speaking.
Please tell me there's extra resources and fresh, trained troops backing up, ready to exploit any breaches etc.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 07 September 2022 - 09:18 AM

[Werthead]

Tsundoku, on 07 September 2022 - 09:18 AM, said:

I just hope the Ukrainians haven't blown their load prematurely, militarily speaking.
Please tell me there's extra resources and fresh, trained troops backing up, ready to exploit any breaches etc.

After the war started Ukraine mobilised its full reserves, totalling 900,000 people, and has been training them in successive waves for six months straight. That includes a lot of veterans and people who've rotated out of service who've fought in Donbas since 2014 (maybe as high as 400,000 people with actual front-line combat experience, though nothing like the intensity of the last six months). Obviously they're not all front-line, skilled veterans but then neither are the Russians (some of the Russian troops have been recruited, equipped and sent to the front with less than 3 weeks of training, which is a great way of getting yourself killed). There was one video circulating this morning of Ukrainian troops firing a recoilless rifle out the window of a house, causing the roof to cave in on them (nobody was hurt), which is the sort of rookie error you're going to get in this kind of situation, but also a solid learning experience.

But there are many more Ukrainian combat personnel in the theatre, they're increasingly better-equipped and they're fighting in a very intelligent way designed to shatter Russian lines from the back rolling forwards and encouraging the Russians to retreat without having to make dangerous frontal, bloody assaults. Ukraine does have the capacity to make those kind of assaults, with hundreds of new tanks donated by the West (and, er, Russia itself), but they'll save that until absolutely necessary, probably to retake Donbas. Around Kherson and Kharkiv this strategy of smashing supply lines to pieces, starving the enemy of resources and then forcing them to retire or starve is proving effective with very limited Ukrainian casualties.

There's also several Ukrainian formations currently in other countries getting specialised training, 10,000 in the UK alone by some counts and thousands more in Poland, the Czech Republic and the United States. When they go back with that training and equipment and can disseminate it to the other ranks, that will be a big help.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 07 September 2022 - 01:40 AM, said:

The real question is, how far back did the Ruscist front collapse? If the UAF are able break through to the M03, whatever is left in Izyum needs to really start planning a goodwill relocation to the E of Oskil. Which also puts an end to any attempts to block Slov'yans'k from the NW and relieves a lot of UAF troops.

Based on one map this morning, the Ukrainians have broken through to Volokhiv Yar, which the Russians retreated from at speed and the Ukrainians are already fighting NE towards Semenivka and SE towards Bryhadyrivka. Which I think means they're over the M03 and have cut Izyum off from resupply.

This looks like a full-blown Russian collapse on the Kharkiv front, far worse (for them) than anything that's happened in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.

[Werthead]

Now reports saying the Ukrainians are targeting Shevchenkove. That would be a ridiculous embarrassment for the Russians, the wholesale collapse of their lines. That's what, 20 miles in two days? Absurd. The UK and US MoD/DoD seem to be assessing that there's literally no Russian mobile reserves on the entire northern line of the Kharkiv front. The lines were tissue paper, the Ukrainians have driven right through them and these's nothing to stop them roaming around and blowing the crap out of isolated Russian forces. The next viable defensive line might not be until the Oskil (Kupyansk just east of Shevchenkove).

I think that would entail the Russians losing more ground than they captured (at the cost of 10 million artillery shells and tens of thousands of casualties) in the summer offensive.

It looks like this was supposed to be a diversionary attack to stop reinforcements being sent to Kherson, but instead it looks like being a success to rival Kherson.

ETA: Russian forces in the Kharkiv region saying that the Ukrainians are indeed targeting Kupyansk already and they can't stop them.

ETA2: The Russians have been saying for a month they thought an offensive in this sector was possible from a massive buildup in the south around Slovyansk. They were blindsided by the attack coming from further north, and are warning that the force at Slovyansk hasn't been committed yet. That could form a second front on this line that could take Izyum.

ETA3: Ukrainian forces at the E40/M03/T2110 crossroads at Volokhiv Yar.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 September 2022 - 03:49 PM

[Mentalist]

Haven't heard any updates since reporting that heavy fighting in Shevchenkovo. UAF apparently also pushed directly E from Chuhuiv through Chkalov'ske to reinforce the attack on Kup'yansk.

I don't expect them to take Kup'yans'k in single strike, but dropping the bridges across the Oskil would be sufficient. At that point Izyum bunch would need to get the F out before UAF manages to cross the Donets en masse to block the Oskl crossings from the SE.

If the UAF gets halted at Shevchenkove, then the situation will remain a lot more fluid. For now.

[Werthead]

The OSINT sources are doing their best to track the Ukrainian advance but it has seemingly outranged them (probably helped by the Ukrainians fighting and not pausing to post social media posts). Every time they can gelocate and confirm a victory, the Ukrainians have already moved on up the road. It's going to be a while before we can get a good handle on the scale of the victory, but it does appear to be hugely significant and ongoing.

Now reports that a Russian artillery division in Kherson Oblast was left hanging on a limb because their screening troops had been eliminated or had fled, and suddenly they had to directly engage Ukrainian infantry advancing on their position (not something artillery troops are supposed to do, they're supposed to be miles behind the front line). It looks like they fled after sustaining two-thirds casualties.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 07 September 2022 - 07:13 PM, said:

The OSINT sources are doing their best to track the Ukrainian advance but it has seemingly outranged them (probably helped by the Ukrainians fighting and not pausing to post social media posts). Every time they can gelocate and confirm a victory, the Ukrainians have already moved on up the road. It's going to be a while before we can get a good handle on the scale of the victory, but it does appear to be hugely significant and ongoing.

Now reports that a Russian artillery division in Kherson Oblast was left hanging on a limb because their screening troops had been eliminated or had fled, and suddenly they had to directly engage Ukrainian infantry advancing on their position (not something artillery troops are supposed to do, they're supposed to be miles behind the front line). It looks like they fled after sustaining two-thirds casualties.

Some of Ruscist TG channels are saying UAF bypassed Shevchenkove, leaving a screening force, to blitz onwards towards Kup'yans'k.

If they make it to the Oskil before any reinforcements can be brought in from Belgorod Oblast, that's likely GG for Izyum.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 07 September 2022 - 07:55 PM, said:

Some of Ruscist TG channels are saying UAF bypassed Shevchenkove, leaving a screening force, to blitz onwards towards Kup'yans'k.

If they make it to the Oskil before any reinforcements can be brought in from Belgorod Oblast, that's likely GG for Izyum.

I make that if they reach Kup'yans'k and the Oskil tonight, some Ukrainian units will have advanced 50 miles or about 80 km in around 36 hours. Completely crazy.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 07 September 2022 - 08:22 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 07 September 2022 - 07:55 PM, said:

Some of Ruscist TG channels are saying UAF bypassed Shevchenkove, leaving a screening force, to blitz onwards towards Kup'yans'k.

If they make it to the Oskil before any reinforcements can be brought in from Belgorod Oblast, that's likely GG for Izyum.

I make that if they reach Kup'yans'k and the Oskil tonight, some Ukrainian units will have advanced 50 miles or about 80 km in around 36 hours. Completely crazy.

Combined Arms Tactics AND a proper blitzkrieg is NOT something the orcs can handle.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 07 September 2022 - 09:36 PM, said:

Combined Arms Tactics AND a proper blitzkrieg is NOT something the orcs can handle.

Some Russian bloggers angrily saying the Ukrainians are not "fighting fair" because they are using "NATO tactics."

Some observers noting that NATO combined-arms tactics were in part derived from lessons learned from watching the Red Army blitz across Europe in 1943-45 (more successfully than the Brits and Americans did in France and Germany in 1944-45), and some of the tactics NATO uses were developed under Zhukov's watch. They also pointed out that combined-arms tactics are pretty much common sense at the moment, and NATO does not have unique access to them. The Azerbaijanis used them to great effect in the 2020 war, and that seems to have been a conflict studied very, very closely by the Ukrainian command.

[Macros]

And all of a sudden Putler wants to rethink the wheat export deal.

It's almost like, something made him want to extort the world more, cause turning the gas off didn't work.

No idea what's brought this on

[Werthead]

Macros, on 08 September 2022 - 10:25 AM, said:

And all of a sudden Putler wants to rethink the wheat export deal.

It's almost like, something made him want to extort the world more, cause turning the gas off didn't work.

No idea what's brought this on

I think Russia worked out that Europe (esp. Germany) has more gas reserves then they thought they would, so can probably get through the winter without too much trouble, so now they're looking at other options.

The problem here is that terminating the wheat export deal would annoy of a lot of Russia's allies and friendly neutrals: Ukrainian grain has been arriving in Turkey, Syria, parts of Africa and Libya, among others, and if Russia switches off the food supplies and causes problems for them, then they can turn around and halt buying weapons from Russia or suspend cooperation or do other things to further weaken Russia's global, geopolitical position, and for some reason (possibly the result of the Russian military grinding itself into fine powder in Ukraine) none of them seem scared of Russia any more.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Putin Quotes Fairytale Villain in Latest Threat to Make Europe "Freeze"

[...] “The only thing we can do is to keep on saying the line from a well-known Russian fairytale—Freeze, freeze, [...] wolf's tail!”

[...] sly fox and a wolf enter into a back-and-forth fight. Each takes turns getting mad at and playing tricks on the other. In the end, the fox lets his rage take over, and tricks the wolf into freezing his tail through an ice hole in a river until villagers arrive to beat him. [Versions I found on the internet were a bit different. Also saw it labeled as a Ukrainian fairytale.]'

Vladimir Putin Quotes Russian Fairytale Villain in Latest Threat to Let Europe Freeze Without Nord Stream 1

'St. Petersburg Officials Demand Vladimir Putin Be Tried for Treason [...]

[...] calling on Russia’s State Duma to charge Vladimir Putin with treason[...] Dmitry Palyuga, a deputy with the Smolninskoye municipal council, announced the news on Twitter[...] “The decision [to send the request to the State Duma] was supported by the majority of deputies present,” [... St. Petersburg is] Putin’s hometown [...] “special military operation” against Ukraine, which they said constitutes high treason [...] they had previously sent him an open letter condemning his “historical fantasies” and demanding he stop the “bloodshed” in neighboring Ukraine'

St. Petersburg Officials Demand Vladimir Putin Be Tried for Treason in Letter

[Mentalist]

Z-bots are reporting fighting in Hrushivka, 7 km away from Kup'yansk

UAF's HQ spokesperson tacitly confirms, saying we made a 50 km advance into enemy held territory (Verbivka to Hrushivka is 50 clicks as the crow flies, but obviously farther of you take the roads)

EDIT: starting to get hints that the troops around Slov'yans'k are moving to cross the Donets and close the trap from the S.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 September 2022 - 01:36 PM

[Werthead]

Some reports that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Donets and liberated a number of villages south of Lyman. No fighting, the Russians had already left.

[Mentalist]

Balakliya and Shevhenkove secured, Ukrainian flags raised.

Also, seeing posts that they've reached the Oskil and secured Sen'kivka bridge- the northernmost of the 3 river crossings b/w Kup'yans'k and Izyum.

Holy shit, this is actually happening.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 September 2022 - 02:55 PM

[Cause]

Well according Putin Russia hasn’t lost anything. I wonder how many Russian lives it takes to add up to something.

Does Ukraine plan to fight for all their territory pre 2014, including crimea or is the ambition just to reverse the more recent Russian aggression.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 08 September 2022 - 03:10 PM, said:

Well according Putin Russia hasn't lost anything. I wonder how many Russian lives it takes to add up to something.

As with the Kremlin's bit about Russia being more united than ever, I suspect they 'doth protest too much'... though I guess it's possible Putin views the value of lives from the provinces as essentially 'nothing' (he'd probably say they're better off now---in 'Heaven'...).