[Mentalist]

Latest gem from world's favourite nuke-wielding maniac:

"Russia's victory in WW1 was stolen. It's about time humanity realized that violence only creates more violence"

Jesus, what is this guy thinking?

[Gothos]

Erm. Who? Opinions vary from person to person...

[Mentalist]

Gothos, on 01 August 2014 - 01:20 PM, said:

Erm. Who? Opinions vary from person to person...

Not the PDRK guy.

[Terez]

How much does Poland like its own apples? Will it be enough to stop the red tide?

http://www.theguardi...ssian-apple-ban

[Mentalist]

Situation remains tough. The Security + Defense Council's latest progress map (seen here: http://www.rnbo.gov....4/01-08-eng.jpg ) indicates that in place of a " fighting corridor" that's been there for the past week since the Debaltsevo offensive last weekend, there is now a stable corridor, meaning the Donetsk-Makiyivka-Horlivka-Yenakiyeve group ("Strelkov's group") is completely cut off. They are losing ground, albeit slowly, as ATO forces are inching ever closer to the main cities.

Luhansk is almost completely blocked off, but not quite. There's still a "lifeline" to the Russian border, and Uki control of said border is... tenuous, to say the least. Frankly, there's a gaping hole in the border, and Russian artillery on the other side prevents any attempts to regain control over it.

Nonetheles, the Luhansk group is isolated, they make few forays into already liberated territory, and are really more of a nuisance.

The city of Shakhtarsk, on the H21 highway that goes from Donetsk through the main "mining cities" in the south of Donbass is the true war zone. The city is smack dab in the middle of the "corridor" secured by ATO forces, which isolates Strelkov from the Russian border and reinforcements. So, from the west you have Strelkov's men trying to re-establish their supply route, from the east you have Russian paratrooters, assorted "volunteers" and mining cities locals atempting to counter-attack from the border with the same goal. And in between you have the mobile ATO forces, trying to get a strong foothold in the city to drive a decisive wedge in between the two groups. Which turns the city into a virtual meatgrinder. The less room there is to maneuver, the more intense and bloody the fighting gets and casualties goes up

There's a similar situation at the North-Western part of the ATO zone. ATO forces and the "Donbass" battalion in particular have been slowed down at the city of Pervomaysk for the better part of the week now. Pervomaysk is the northernmost out of the line of adjacent terrorist-held cities, reaching all the way to Alchevsk which sits astride the Luhansk-Donetsk Highway. The highway is blocked off on both ends by ATO forces. The group in the Pervomaysk-Alchevsk area has been bolstered by the remnants of those that used to occupy the Syeverodonetsk-Lysychansk aglomeration further north, but were forced out of it. As it stands, altogether this group now has the numbers to make progress difficult for ATO froces in the area, simply due to large numbers--although they aren't numerous enough to attempt a counteroffensive, as all reinforcements the terrorists get are directed at Shaktarsk, in an attempt to re-establish a united front with Strelkov's grouping.

The fighting will most likely be toughest in the areas on the line from Shaktarsk-Krasny Luch-Antratsyt-Roven'ky-Sverdlovsk and onto Krasnodon. That's very much the "Mining Heartland"--there are no jobs out there other than mines, few of which are profitable, and most of which will need to be closed. The people there are very much a "privileged caste" right now, because they get the lion's share of the subsidies the govt is pouring into mining. For them, it really is a battle for their way of life--for their privilege to leech off the rest of the country, while yelling the loudest abut how "Donbass feeds all of Ukraine". The Soviet thinking and the Soviet myth is the strongest here (in larger cities, there's a growing number of small businessmen + service industry workers, who can think more critically and evaluate the situation better. Also, even in factory towns, where the main income is from machine building plants, people tend to be more educated and more critical). So for now, the main goal is to try to isolate thiat region formt eh border--made incredibly difficult by the fact that any force that wedges itself between the imaginary "southern Donbass" and the Russian border will find itself in a crossfire between Russian artillery fire from the south and the terrorist strikes from the North.


So, overall, the situation is a bit of a stalemate, as ATO waits for the third wave of partial mobilization to get in full swing. That's not to say ATO has halted-there isstill constant progress made, but the pace is slower.

Internationally, with the implementation of serious EU sanctions, the West has put Putin in what's called "zugzwang"-a position in chess where ANY move makes the player's position worse. If Putin continues to push in UA (to the point of openly invading under the guise of a "peacekeeping operation"), the West will try its utmost best to bury him through full isolation. If he backs off, the patriotic fervor he whipped up in Russia with Crimea has a good chance of turning on him as a "traitor" and "sellout". Since Russia's economy has been steadily deteriorating, as more and more shortcomings were covered up by oil money, once Putin "loses" and loses the image of a "national leader", all those shortcomings may lead to major political crisis and shake-up in Moscow and the periphery.

I'd advise against putting a whole lot of stock into this, but there is a small, but growing sentiment in Siberian cities for greater independence, and for a greater share of and control over the oil revenues. The closer ties Putin forges with China, the more those Siberian elites will be asking the question of "why exactly do we need to share with those people west of the Urals?"

This was a monster post, since I will be away for the next 3 days, and most likely net-less.

[Cause]

Seems Russia is countering by embargoing all American eu and Norwegian food products. I really am curious I that's not more skin to shooting themselves in the foot.

In any event strikes me as very reactionary and petty.

I need to find out more about Russia and Putin because it's fast becoming 1970 again

[Mentalist]

very busy week, and not a whole lot happening in the ATO zone. I'll do a week-long write-up tomorrow.

Suffice it to say, Russia firing back with sanctions of its own suggests we're not gonna get a serious de-escalation any time soon.

Cause, in your research, look up "Co-operative "Ozero" (or "Lake")"

[Mentalist]

This is your weekly new bulletin, from Aug 1 to Aug 8.

Remarkably little has really changed wrt to the actual war situation. ATO forces have been regrouping, there's been a lot of maneuvering, a few military planes were shot down, lots of Russian posturing on the border threatening to invade, but very little actually happened--at least compared to the past few weeks of intense fighting and gains. Earlier this week there were reports that ATO forces have "taken" the city in of Yasynuvata in the north-eastern part of the Donetsk aglomeration, but later "left it, so as to avoid large number of civilian deaths". LOTS of conflicting reports about this one.

The absolutely most important bit of news is, of course, the fact that the Sector "D" troops--those 3 brigades, some border guards and spetznaz units who were sent in to secure the Russian border in Luhansk oblast and found themselves deep behind enemy lines, virtually isolated, and shelled from Russia--have broke the encirclement and made an orderly retreat to the territory firmly in Ukrainian hands. While this leaves the large chunk of the border effectively open and unsupervised (allowing for a much more open supply line to the terrorists), this is unquestionably a positive development--the most battle hardened units are saved from assured deaths, and ATO forces get an operative surplus with which to continue the offensive.

The orderly breakout operation was completed yesterday, and today ATO forces have begun to make offensive progress again. ATO command reports that today ATO forces have "entered" the city of Panteleymonivka (north of Donetsk), in an attempt to cut communication between the Donetsk-Makiyivka aglomeration and terrorist-held Horlivka. in Luhansk oblast, ATO offensive has reached the small city of Miusinsk--located halfway between the major terrorist stronghold of Snizhne and the key supply road hub of Krasnyj Luch--the latter being apparently the next major target of the ATO forces. Capturing Krasnyj Luch which is accessible from the north by 2 key roads--both blocked off by ATO forces)


It's possible that this weekend will hail the beginning of another ATO offensive (those tend to happen on weekends a lot), but really too early to tell at this point.

A rather disturbing issue that arose this week was a massive confrontation in social media between some of the command staff of the "Azov" volunteer battalion and the right-hand man of the oligarch-turned-governor Ihor Kolomoyskyj, who is affiliated with the "Dnipro", and "Kryvbass" battalions by the name of Filatov. This whole thing needs to be examined in the context of the announced dissolution of the parliament and the neccessary new parliamentary elections. The "Azov", composed at its core of former "political prisoners" of the really-really-ultra-right Social-National Assembly, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk-based "Shaktarsk" battalions have been interacting very closely with the MP Oleh Lyashko.

Now, Lyashko is an extremely controversial figure. The leader of the so-called "Radical Party" he was, elected to the 2012 parliament as a staunch anti-oligarch opposition MP. He became a political talk shows darling, and earned a lot of political capital during Maidan with populist rhetoric. Serious politicians consider him a "clown" and those in the know speculate that he was a political project to create a "puppet opposition" and discredit actual legitimate opposition. He is closely linked to the financial-industrial group of oligarch Firtash (owns almost the entire chemical industry in UA. Was a major player in the gas transit contracts between Ukraine and Russia, and may have been Putin's partner Currently under house arrest in Austria, awaiting the appeal of his extradition to US by the FBI), but has gotten far bigger than his initial role--his involvement in the ATO, including his "citizen's arrests" of various separatist/terrorist functionaries and his use of his position as MP to cut through bureaucracy in the interests of "Azov" and "Shakhtarsk" have made him popular enough for him to be 3rd in the presidential election.

On the other hand is Kolomoyskyj and his group. Kolomoyskyj was an oligarch, who has spent Yanukovych's rule in virtual exile in Switzerland. During the Crimea crisis he was offered the position of governor of Dnipropetrovks oblast--one of the biggest, most industrially developed and successfull oblasts of the "Russian-speaking South and East"--and he has made it into a true bastion of Ukrainian patriotism. He has decisively curbed any separatist movements, and has been instrumental in establishing the voulunteerr battalions of territorial defense, as well as numerous other initiatives. Now, being an oligarch, he and his team (composed of businessmen primarily), of course, try to make some profit from the war effort. This will naturally need to be looked into at a later point. But the fact that he has done an incredible amount to prevent Ukraine from fracturing further cannot be denied. And he has taken on financing and supplying a number of volunteer battalions (such as "Dnipro", "Kryvbass" and even the luhansk-based "Aidar") including supporting families of those wounded or killed in the line of duty. Russian media considers Kolomoyskyj to be pretty much the evil mastermind behind the "fascist junta's genocide of the Russian peoples of the Donbass".
Also, it's important to note that the "First volunteer Corps "Right Sector""--a unit led personally by the RS leader Yarosh works closely with "Dnipro", both being involved in the fighting on the western outskirts of Donetsk. "Dnipro" itself includes the near-legendary Hundred leader Parasiuk--who was the one to take the mic on the Maydan and issue an ultimatum to Yanukovych the night before he fled Kyyiv.

And now there's an open feud between the two groups. The "Azov" and "Shakhtarsk" guys, being composed of the most radical (to the point of attracting white supremacists from all over Europe) tend to act very independently, and with the "protection" of Lyashko, who employs his own, personal mercenary battalion "Ukraine" they get the opportunity and authority for a lot of independent movements. So the spokesperson for "Azov" has taken to hype up Lyashko, and criticize Kolomoyskyj and his team (including their spokesperson, Filatov)for their dealings with terrorists (arranging for prizoner exchanges) as well as embezzling ATO money. This fairly long-time feud got messy last weekend, when "Azov" and "Shakhtarsk" both got ambushed during an attempt to assault a southern suburb of Donetsk Mar'yanivka. Filatov posted on Facebook criticising "Azov" for boasting of their assault earlier, leading to the ambush, which meant "Dnipro" had to risk its men to get them out.

Though the episode is fairly minor, the tendency is worrying. The fact that ATO forces "take sides" in internal political squabbles between oligarchs raises the spectre of Ukraine during the Russian Civil War--when numerous "otamans" took huge swathes of land and ruled them by force, with no regard to central authorities. Fortunately, at this point, in the Donbass there is an ultimate moral authority figure in the face of Semen Semenchenko, the head of the original "Donbass" battalion.

There's also some tension in Kyyv wrt the Maydan. Despite the fact that the Revolution is largely over, the centre of the city remains occypied by tents and barricades. The quality of the people occupying the Maidan now, compared to the active phase of the Revolution has decreased significantly--there are growing number of reports of crimes being commited by "Maydan residents", and the majority of Kyyv residents wish to see the Maydan taken down--since those who fought for the idea have largely left to take part of the ATO, and those who stay cannot describe why they are there.

There are strong rumours that certain elements of the old political establishment are now trying to tarnish the image of the Maydan by seeding it with criminals, weapons, etc. Yesterday, there was an attempt by communal services of Kyyiv, as well as police battalions Kyyiv-1 and Kyyiv-2 (ironically enough, also composed of former Maydan Self-Defense members) to clear up the barricades and parts of the Maydan tent village. This resulted in a struggle, where "Maydan resdents" were seen wielding knives and firearms. A sizeable mount of firearms was found, and a number of individuals with Russian passports were arrested. Tomorrow there is going to be an attempt to gather Kyyiv residents to "clean up the Maydan". It remains to be seen how that will go.

Internationally, the biggest new, ofc, is the "anti-sanctions" Putin has introduced. Essentially, it's an import embargo on a number of foodstuffs that Russia used to import from the countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia--most important of these being the EU, of course. This move cuts off about 50% of Russian imports of such things as meat and sea products, less as far as other product groups are concerned. Now, for the EU this loss is about 10% of their yearly exports--a sizeable, but not critical loss. This is most worrying in the sense that it indicates that Russia has no intention of yielding and instead intends to continue its aggressive policy wrt Ukraine. most worrying.

[Mentalist]

News update- Aug 9-Aug 12th.

Last I wrote was Friday evening--just as the main story of the past 4 days was only developing.

so, the absolutely main thing: "The Humanitarian Convoy"--supposedly, Russia is sending some 280-odd trucks worth of "Humanitarian Aid" for the people of the beseiged Donetsk and Luhansk. Their first attempt was supposed to be on Friday night, accompanied by Russian "peacekeepers" but some quick and dirty diplomacy, invoking Merkel and Obama made Putin back off.

But talks about this continued, with Red Cross popping up repeatedly. And now the convoy is actually on its way--Russia's Foreing Affairs Minister Lavrov claims UA has allowed it to cross the border. Ukrainian officials state it'll only happen if the cargo is examined and re-packed into Red Cross trucks, with red Cross and OSCE drivers. Lots and lots of political back and forth cat and mouse games about this. The popular sentiment in UA is quite simply "they are bombing us and now they are giving us "aid"? Fuck off, it's a trap!" Can't exactly say I fault this logic.

Still, it remains to be seen what'll happen. Kharkiv activists are getting ready to block roads. provocations are expected. whole thing is very tense right now.

Other news:

Domestic politics: UA's parliament met today. The agenda included 3 main issues-changing the voting system for the upcoming parliamentary election, passing the "Lustration Legislation" (main objective--forbid any of the "old regimes" functionaries to run for office/hold govt office), and impose sanctions on Russia.

Of the 3, the Parliament pulled off approving the first hearing of the sanctions proposal. Re: Lustration, there was staunch opposition, but. as a joke, the Parliament adopted first hearing of the version proposed by the most Odious Party of Regions. Joke's on them, though, since the speaker then included all other proposed bills as "alternatives" to the approved one. I suspect on thursday, there will be an angry mob outside, demanding that the legislation be passed..or else.

Re: electoral system. Also stalled, moved to Thur. The popular demand is to be rid of first-past-the-post, and introduce Proportional rep with open lists (where voters pick both the party and their preferred from said party MP by popular vote). Due to the time constraints, implementing this seems unlikely, so the comprpomise will probably be "fixed lists proportional rep"--a system with drawbacks, in that it allows the party leaders to bring all kinds of businessmen into their lists.

Oh, also, the Synod of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow P{atriarchate) will be electing a new Patriarch tomorrow. Very political, since he could either take a pro-Russian position, or anti-Moscow. Currently, there were already cases of Moscow Patriarchate parishes "switching over" to the Kyiv Patriarchate (unrecognized autocephalous church) when their local MosPat priest refused to hold mass for pro-Unity dead soldiers.


Russian/Internations politics : Putin and the cabinet are going to Crimea for two days to hold and out-of-the-capital govt session there. calculated insult to UA.

This weekend there are "federalization" rallies planned to take place all over Russia, under the general slogan "Enough feeding Moscow!". These are supposed to take place in several Siberian cities (Most reasonable, since Siberian hydrocarbons are what fuels Russian economy, and they get very little back from the centre), Kaliningrad (because of its proximity to EU), Smolensk (because of the Belarussian minority, and the fact that it's generally disputed b/w Russia and Belarus, Krasnodar (ditto, but with Ukrainians being the mostly assimilated minority and its Zoporizhyan Cossack heritage), and Yekaterinburg (citing the Yeltsin-time "Ural Republic" as precedent. Now, I am far from expecting these rallies to achieve much given the insane level of centralization in Russian pretend Federation, but (esp in case of Siberia), there's the faint hope that the local elites may see their advantage lying not with Moscow, if the regime does show any weakness. remains to be seen if there's anything at all to come out of this.

Rumours of EU starting to apply pressure onto Brazil + other Latin American countries so as not to sell more food products to Russia to make up for Russia's import sanctions. Given the West is a much, much bigger market, if they seriously put their mind to it, they can probably put Russia in trade isolation.

War news : the weekend was relatively slow, with the main offensive being in the south of the terrorist-controlled territory. ATO forces have began their offensive towards Krasnyj Luch-the secon major "crossroads city" after Debalts'evo which connected both Luhansk to Donetsk via the sourthern road through the "mining heartland" where the fighting is now the fiercest, and also with access to the Russian border to the south via the Rostov-Kharkiv higway.

Although Krasnyj Luch has not been taken yet, it's been blockaded from the North (cutting off even further communication with Luhansk) and from the west, where the ATO forces hold the city of Miusinsk, and thus have formed a wedge between Krasnyj Luch and the terrorist grouping in Torez and Snizhne (which is in turn cut off further west from Shakhtars and Donetsk by a "wedge" of ATO troops besieging Donetsk, and is currently in danger of being encircled on its own, as ATO forces push forward both from teh North (Debaltsevo) and the south (from the key mountain Saur-Mohyla)

Fierce fighting continues around Donetsk-Makiyivka and Horlivka-Yenakiyeve aglomerations, which have been effectively cut off from any constant supply lines. Although the ATO remains unable to complete the encirclement and tight blockade of Donetsk from the south, due to the fact that the terrorists hold a well-fortified position in the city of Ilovaisk (about 20 km south-east), which, to date, has resisted the assaults of the combined forces of Azov, Donbass, Shakhtarsk and "Right Sector" volunteer battalons--reportedly there's Russian GRU spetznaz sniper group working there, which is responsible for majority of the casualties, including the husband of Tetyana Chornovil-- a famous investigative journalist, one of "Maydan heroes" and head of a newly-formed "Anti-Corruption Bureau".

In addition, just today there was a report that a group of ATO soldiers was ambushed on the south-western outskirts of Donetsk--12 dead and 13 taken prisoner.

Despite these losses, ATO was able to use the fact that the terrorist focused all their attention on defending their southern front following the Ilovaisk and Krasnyj Luch offensives. As such, ATO was able to drive a firm wedge between Donbass and Horlivka--based on their earlier success in capturing the village of Panteleymonivka, ATO forces were able to advance both North into the south-western outskirts of Horlivka, and also south, blockading the village of Krynychna on the northern edges of Makiyivka, and also eastwards towards the city of Korsyn, which is to the south of Horlivka and to the west of Yeankiyevo, complicatign the communication between the 2 neighboring cities.

And today, striking westward from Debaltsevo, ATO forces have taken the town of Vuhlehirsk, which is on the eastern edge of Horlivka, and further complicates the communication between Horlivka and Yeankiyeve.

Lastly, on the northern edge of the ATO offensive, the Pervomaysk-Stakhanov-Alchevsk grouping continues to be a formidable obstacle, despite the fact that ATO forces from both Debaltseve to the West and Luhansk's western suburbs to the east threaten to encircle the aglomeration and cut it off completely from the supply line southward through Krasnyj Luch and further to "mining heartland" and Russia proper. ATO command has triumphantly reported capturing a few villages around Pervomaysk, as well as Pervomays itself, but eyewitness reports suggest this is a tad optimistic, as ATO has barely entered the city's northern outskirts.

The general trend seems to be driving continuous wedges between various terrorist groups, so as to isolate and surround them. If the trend continues (and barring any unpleasant surprises related to the "Humanitarian Convoy", the end of the week should find the ATO forces sitting on top of at least 5 fully blockaded and isolated besieged terrorist groupings

1) Donetsk-Makiyivka
2) Horlivka
3) Yenakiyeve (may be abandoned)
4) Pervomaysk-Stakhanov-Alchevsk aglomeration (parts of this 6-city "line" may be yielded)
5) Torez-Snizhne (here I expect the fighting to be among the fiercest to the end, because the local people have nothing to lose, and intense fighting has turned many here against Ukraine. As sad as it is, I wouldn't be surprised if before the end the whole Shaktarsk-Torez-Snizhne strip is completely leveled)

In addition, the following groups may end up fully blockaded:
a) Shaktarsk, if ATo is able to capture Ilovaisk and drive a wedge betweed Shakhtarsk and either Khartzysk, or Makiyivka from the west.
b ) Krasnyj Luch, (and maybe even its twin city, Antratsyt, some 15 klicks to the east)
c) Luhansk (if ATO succeeds in cutting off the road onto Krasnodon and the Russian border)

Of course, if Russia decided, against all common sense to make a move, the balance can shift momentarily. There's about 50k troops involved in the ATO on Donbass right now. Russia's got about 45k troops massed around the UA border (in a wide swathe from Donbass in the east, to Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv in the North), in addition to the Crimean troops on the border with Kherson oblast and the Black Sea Fleet, and also the Russian and Transnistrian forces to the west of Odessa and Vynnytsya oblasts. If the war with Russia should go hot, it'll be very tough--especially due to Russia's air superiority. It's anyone's guess how things will go then. If Russia doesn't openly interfere, ATO's bigger numbers will become ever more telling, as terrorist forces will continue to run out of supplies, arms and even fuel for their armor.

[Mentalist]

http://www.telegraph...to-Ukraine.html

Fuck you, VVH. That is all.

[cerveza_fiesta]

Heard on the news this morning Russia is actually allowing Ukranian border guards and red cross folks over to inspect the convoy. Not sure how "truthy" that is, but it bodes well.

The armor/military convoy sneaking though a hole in the fence at night is a bit more worrying.

[Mentalist]

cerveza_fiesta, on 15 August 2014 - 12:15 PM, said:

Heard on the news this morning Russia is actually allowing Ukranian border guards and red cross folks over to inspect the convoy. Not sure how "truthy" that is, but it bodes well.

The armor/military convoy sneaking though a hole in the fence at night is a bit more worrying.

yeah, the circus show around the `Trojan Convoy`continues... it now appears the trucks are all at most, half full. The reasoning? "well, if one breaks, we want to be able to load the cargo into the others w/o slowing down". Riiiiiiight.

Re: the armored convoy that allegedly crossed into UA. Uki Pres is chherfully reported that our artillery "destroyed most of it". And the Def+Sec Council spokesperson Lysenko dutifully confirms, adding "we've watched it and waited for it to get away from the border and deeper in before shelling. Neither offers a single shred of proof, naturally.

There haven't been too many comments about the "Aydar" battalion either--who were supposedly on the edge of the strike operation which cut off Luhansk from the Krasnodon road and the Russian border--and landed them on the receiving edge of the Russian armor in question, desperate to clear the road to Luhansk. Last we've heard, casualties are high, but supposedly they are holding. Command is being incredibly tight lipped about that. I do not have a good feeling about it. Although, there's a LOT of buzz about uber-crazy shelling around Krasnodon (where Russian tech is supposedly based). which is good.

At the same time, social media is spreading rumours that there's now intense fighting within Luhansk proper, with Uki spetznaz supposedly clearing up the city of terrorist. No official confirmation, though, and the locals aren't really confirming, because, well, there's an almost 2 week long electricity shortage in a city that still probably has about 400k residents. They kind of have more important things to worry about than give the news to the outside world. So, no, I won't confirm/deny what's happening.

At the same time, what our glorious command does NOT comment on is the fact that we've supposedly lost the border crossing at Marynivka (for those interested-look @ the Uki-Russian border. There's a looong strip of East-west border in the southern part (roughly north of Rostov). Where that border turns south--that's where Marynivka is). Supposedly, it's not so much "lost control of" as "had to retreat from the border, because Russian artillery from Russia proper was shelling the living fuck out of the area and practicaly demolished the border crossing". Which means, incidentally, that the terrorists had another road to bring in reinforcements into the stronghold city of Snizhne--albeit under Uki artillery fire, since we (last I checked) since hold Saur-Mohyla--which is the dominant height in the region and which cost us many lives to take.

Overall, the operative situation in the past 2 days hasn't shifted much. Luhansk HAS been fully isolated (insofar that Uki troops, if not fully "control" the Krasnodon road, at least have it within easy firing range, meaning they can effectively prevent any communication with the city). in Donetsk, fighting has shifted inside the city--in particular, Right Sector is already engaged in street fighting in the western districts of the city proper. Terrorists continue to hold their position in Ilovaysk--the south-most point of Donetsk grouping's defences. ATo forces are inching closer still to Yenakiyevo, with the clear goal of isolating Horlivka from Yeankiyevo and completign its blokade (right now there's still a very tenuous lifeline from Donetsk --> east to Makiyivka --> east-north-east to Yenakiyeve --> north-west to Horlivka).

The fighting in the north with the Pervomaysk-Stakhanov-Alchevsk is also a bit of a stalemate.

The real areas of concern are the 2 "staging areas" -Torez-Snizhne in Donetsk oblast and Krasnyj Luch-Antratsyt-Roven'ky-Sverdlovsk in the south of Luhansk Oblast. The "Mining Heartland" has seen a large amount of Russian armor come in as well as (allegedly, according to the terrorists themselves), "1200 reservists, who've undergone training in training camps in Rostov oblast in Russia"

Not a whole lotta clarity. As the fighting gets more intense, but UA command continues to suppress true casualty rates, the situation's gonna get worse, politically.
At the same time, the Russian-based military and political "officials" of DNR have resigned, as did the head of LNR, who was the driver of the oligarch overlord of Luhansk Yefremov. This happened yesterday and was considred a sign that Russia might be dropping the whole "novorossiya" idea. Especially since Russian oil giant, Rossneft, has straight up said "we'll need 1.5 trillion rubles from the Russian budget to cover up for the losses incurred from the sanctions".

But whether or not clear losses will move Putin to back off, or just make him go for a "quick and decisive strike"--I really can't tell at this point.

[Mentalist]

lots of stuff happened over the weekend, but I've been rather busy. more in the evening.

[Mentalist]

took longer than expected. I'm wrapping up at the old workplace, so been quite busy. This will be much, much shorter than it could've been.

key points: the "convoy" is still stuck at the border/customs, as there's a bureaucratic tangle b/w Russian officials, Uki customs and Red Cross. There may be some movement there soon-ish, but no guarantees.

War-wise: it's getting ever messier and bloodier.

Early in the week there were MASSIVE reports of crazy number of armor and men crossing from Russia. Most tactical analyses suggest a "counter attack" pattern by the terrorists, whereas they are consolidating a massive firebase in the "mining heartland" strip from Snizhne to Sverdlovsk. Additional shelling of Ukrainian border post , moving along the border further to the west and south is disconceerting and makes some expect a raid towards Mariupol.

On the main "fronts":

Luhansk-completely surrounded. ATO forces have moved into the city from the north-East (seizing less densely populated October district, consisting of a bunch of villages amalgamated into the city along the railroad), but also from the south-east (capturing the main hospital in the Lenin district, along with lists of terrorists who've undergone treatment), and (according to some), from the south-west, along the road from Lutuhyno. The situation remains bad, city's been w/o electricity and water for almost 20 days now. Fighting continues, as ATO is sending in small spetznaz squads to pick off terrorist checkpoints and patrols. Not a whole lot of info from there, since, you know, no Internet for 2 weeks. Command has stated they have "gained control over most of the city", but I (along with most Ukis) remain skeptical.

Horlivka- Yeankiyeve -this weekend ATO forces have almost completely surrounded Yenakiyeve, cutting it off from Makiyivka, but there's still a line communication b/w Yenakiyeve and Horlivka. Lots of shooting there every day and night.

Donetsk/Makiyivka- Like in Luhansk, there's nearly constant street fighting, as small "reconnaissance-diversionary groups" of spetznaz hunt DNR stragglers within the city. Shelling continues, and Makiyivka, which has previously been spared is now feeling it. A word on shelling: I won't pick a side and state with definitive certainty who's shelling who, because there's so much lies and propaganda coming from both sides it's very hard to sift through it.

South of Donetsk, the past two days have seen some incredibly heavy fighting around Ilovaisk. The city was a major terrorist strongpoint, covering theri communications between Donetsk and Shakhtarsk, from which lies the hotly contested "lifeline"--the highway that connects the Donetsk and Horlivka groups to the bulk of the DNR/LNR-held territory. 2 days ago the city was once again (for the third time now) assaulted by ATO forces, including the volunteer battalions "Donbass", "Azov", "Kryvbass", "Shakhtarsk", "Dnipro" as well as regular army units, and Right Sector Corps. The city was occupied, with the terrorists pushed back to holding about 1/3 of the city. Since then, the ATO forces have resisted several waves of counterattacks from the DNT forces, including their "elites--the "Vostok" and "Oplot" battalions and former Donetsk "Berkut" unit. The fighting there is intense: the commander of "Donbass" Semenchenko was injured and flown out of the city to Dnipropetrovsk for surgery. ATO reports about 20 casualties in that area in the past 3 days. As of a few hours ago, "Donbass" and military units continy to hold about 2/3s of the city, with "Oplot" being contained in the eastern part of the city. Ilovaisk is turning into the big meatgrinder for both sides of the conflict. Its loss will quickly lead to a full collapse of the remaining DNR forces around Donetsk, which is why they are holding onto it so stubbornly. ATO forces have captured 22 prisoners, including 5 Russian military men without documents, but with paratrooper tattoos, a few Serbs and 1 French National.

In the North, the Pervomaysk-Stakhanov-Alchevsk group of LNR terrorists continues to hold the agglomeration in question, but ATO forces are continuing to inch closer, aiming to complete the encirclement.

most recent news: south of Luhansk near Lutuhyno, ATO forces claim to have captured a Russian BMD (Boyevaya Mashyna Desanta, or "Marine Combat Vehicle") belonging to the famed Pskov Paratrooper division in Russia, along with personal and divisional documents inside. The crew... "Got lost. Well, you understand....", to quote the reporting journalist's posts. Pictures are already online.

Tragedy of the Week: on Monday, a refugee convoy leaving Luhansk was shelled. several tens of casualties, among them women and children. Convoy was marked with white flags and clear markings showing that it was carrying refugees.

So that's most of what's been happening. Some stuff happening internationally, but I'll write up that at some later time.

[Mentalist]

Today is independence Day. The most dramatic out of the 23 years of Ukraine's Independence.

In 2 days, our pres will be meeting with Putin, and his Customs Union partners (Belarus' Lukashenko and Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev), along with EU reps from France and Germany in Minsk.

Just about everyone agrees--there will be a LOT of pressure on Poroshenko to give in to everyone's demands and tryt o "regulate" the situation in b/w UA and RU. This means, stop talking about Crimea, and make consessions to terrorists in the East.

Should he do that, people of UA will tear him apart. Too much blood shed, too blatant Russian involvement, too obvious that EU is looking out for itself at our expense. A lot of talk of reforms and dealing w/ corruption has been put ont he backburner "because there's a war on". A lot of well-deserved criticisms were left unspoken "because there's a war on and unity is more important". If it turns out that the efforts and sacrifices made are just dismissed--well, then I don't envy anyone in power.


And if by some miracle Poroshenko doesn't back down, there's an all too real possibility of a default. oh happy days.

More after Tuesday. Today is a day i'm hopeful and more that ever, proud of the country of my birth.

[Mentalist]

Ugh, what a bloody mess.

Going back to what I ended off with last time: the Minsk meetup. It amounted to precisely shit all, as expected. At the 5 way meeting b/w Belarus, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine, Putin spoke about economy, and Poroshenko-about the war. The 2-hour head to head meeting between the 2 didn't yield much: Putin claimed they've "reached an uderstaniding" on humanitarian and gas questions. Poroshenko stated they will "commence consultations" b/w the two countries' Border Guards and HQs to "establish control over the border"

My personal opinion: there's 0 point in talking about "control of the border" with Russia. Putin continues to boldly state that "Russia is not part of the conflict". And as long as Russian helicopters shoot our Border Guards (first happened today), as long as Russian artillery shells ukrainian territory, making it impossible for Border guards to get within 15-20 clicks of the border they are supposed to be guarding, as long as russian troops get "lost" across the border (more on that in a bit)--what's the point of any
"consultations"?

And speaking of "lost" soldiers: that appears to be the biggest (so far) story of the week. 10 soldiers in Russia's "desant" (Google Translate tells me the word i'm looking for is "troopers", but it's much more that that)--Russia's famed Paratroopers, the fearsome "VDV" were captured by Ukrainian troops, travelling in 2 unmarked (their unit insignia were painted over) BMD-2s, some 20 clicks west of the border (and with no roads in sight). Supposedly, they were on night time "training exercises", nad according to one of them, "We didn't know we were in Ukraine, and I realized this after I saw a tank with Ukrainian flag that streted to fire on us".

Russian MoD denied the news at first, but after videos were released where the soldiers confirmed they were indeed Russian troopers, it became impossible to deny. So then Russian MoD came up with the following explanation: the troopers got lost. Yes, that is correct, the Russian elite, the cream of the crop of Russian army were apparently incapable of reading a map and avoiding straying into another country. Nevermind that officially the unit is undergoing "trainign exercises" in Dagestan...

The Russian opposition media's been in an uproar (well, as much as they are capable of causing an uproar), due to the capture of these 10 (for some of their faces, check out tomorrow's Financial Times front page), as well as photos of fresh military graves on Pskov cemetery--with the names matching those of the Pskov Paratrooper division, which Ukrainian troops reported encountering and destroying south of Luhansk on Friday. The squad commander (actually an award-winner among all of Russia's VDV a few years ago) was buried in his village in Voronezh oblast, reportedly he died "in the line of duty" on Aug 19th... As well, Soldiers' Mothers' Committee has started to raise a bit of an issue concerning reports of hundreds of Russian soldiers beign brought into military hospitals in St Petersburg and Rostov, demanding an explanation. There are reports that a number of coffins arrived to the homes of parents of a motorized infantry unit soldiers who were stationed in Dagestan....

The brave Russian MoD continues to deny any involvement of Russian soldiers in Ukraine. With this they are creating a small, but growing and steady undercurrent of resentment. Russia is rapidly turning its Donbass "adventure" into the new Afghanistan--an "undeclared war", which somehow yields a growing number of "mysterious" coffins.

It may seem like I'm gloating. Honestly, I'm not. I feel terrible for those conscripts who've died in Donbass for a cause they could not even understand. Each death is tragic, since it shatters families. And it resonates, because, despite everything, when you take away our views at society and government, and look at pure "domestic" level, Ukis and Russians are very close. It hurts knowing that people that are so very similar to us are suffering. But at the same time, there's a very rational part of me that says "the more efficient we get at killing those who come uninvited, the greater the chances we will end this quicker". And when a journalist's commentary to an invasion of Russian Armour column is summed up as "Russians came, Russians burned. Business as usual", you realize that something HAS changed, profoundly so.

And speaking of invading armour: war-wise, it's incredibly messy out there. Starting Sunday, terrorists, along with their Russian Regulars backing, have attempted to open up a new "frontline". This time it was in the south, along the border from the Azov Sea coastline and up to Amvrosiyivka--one of the centres of the Ukrainian offensive.
Starting on Sunday, Russian artillery commenced extensive shelling of the border in the region, and there were several incursions by Russian armour and infantry (among these the 10 captured VDV troopers). The alleged goal was recapturing Mariupol. Although they did cause a panic in the city (aided by a very clever information attack), terrorist and Russians were unable to get far, as they could not even take a border city of Novoazovsk. Most of Russian armour was repelled by airstrikes and artillery and forced to retreat--over the 2 days, ATO reported destroying 2 tanks and 8 BMDs (not to mention the 2 captured BMD-2s with the 10 VDV prisoners).

Despite these seeming successes, a portion of the Russian troops did break through to the north. Along with a counter-offensive from DNR's established positions, theis lead to a retreat of a portion of Ukrainian troops, and a temporary "operative encirclement" of the troops in Illovaisk--primarily, a number of volunteer battalions, including "Donbass" and "Dnipro-1". This is important, because Volunteer battalions are in many ways the poster children of the Revolution and ATO, and "Donbass" in particular is seen as the most popular unit in the ATO (and one of the most resultative), and it's essentially the most influential pro-Unity force in Donetsk oblast (likewise, the "Aydar battalion is that in Luhansk, often getting involved in local disputes against the officials of former regime, who sympathised with LNR terrorists and now attempt to squash any reforms or any pro-unity attempts to change the region).

There are a lot of rumours that ATO Command has purposefully abandoned the volunteer battalions in order to destroy the most active patriotic segment of the ATO for political reasons. Too early to tell for sure right now, as situation is super-fluid: Supposedly ATO is getting large reinforcements, which may lead to another large offensive. Additionally, today the PM called an emergency Cabinet meeting, and essentially pushed through a decree to immideately push through the bureaucratic red tape and supply the volunteer battalions and National Guard units (most of which are techincally subordinate to the Ministry of the interior (police)) with heavy weapons and military equipment/vehicles. He also mentioned somehtign about purchasing new coombat helicopters...

I've meant to write about the general war situation, too, but Chrome ate my long post, and this is as far as i'll go today re-writing it. Once there's some clarity with the whole Illovaisk situation, I'll probably make another update (prolly Thur, should have some time then). In genral, not a whole lot of changes.

[Tapper]

Cause, on 07 August 2014 - 09:30 AM, said:

Seems Russia is countering by embargoing all American eu and Norwegian food products. I really am curious I that's not more skin to shooting themselves in the foot.

In any event strikes me as very reactionary and petty.

I need to find out more about Russia and Putin because it's fast becoming 1970 again

Regarding the food products: Polish newspapers report that the boycot against them is failing spectacularly. They sell their agricultural produce now to Belarus for a slightly higher price, Belarus repacks it to erase the Polish logo, and sells it for more to Russian stores. Basically, the boycot introduced a middleman who takes his cut and everyone grows richer as a result, while it does backfire for Russia.

[Obdigore]

Tapper, on 27 August 2014 - 06:54 AM, said:

Cause, on 07 August 2014 - 09:30 AM, said:

Seems Russia is countering by embargoing all American eu and Norwegian food products. I really am curious I that's not more skin to shooting themselves in the foot.

In any event strikes me as very reactionary and petty.

I need to find out more about Russia and Putin because it's fast becoming 1970 again

Regarding the food products: Polish newspapers report that the boycot against them is failing spectacularly. They sell their agricultural produce now to Belarus for a slightly higher price, Belarus repacks it to erase the Polish logo, and sells it for more to Russian stores. Basically, the boycot introduced a middleman who takes his cut and everyone grows richer as a result, while it does backfire for Russia.

This is true for the US as well. Food imports into China have increased and it seems that the Chinese are selling the food to Russians at higher prices than what Russia was getting from the US Companies.

The only real card Putin can play is stopping Oil/Natural Gas to the EU, but that would decimate his economy faster than the EU would run out (although the EU Would pay higher prices from other sources).

It sucks for those in Ukraine, but a slow economic sanction should eventually lead to less death and destruction then a military intervention in Ukraine.

[Mentalist]

Obdigore, on 27 August 2014 - 09:02 AM, said:

Tapper, on 27 August 2014 - 06:54 AM, said:

Cause, on 07 August 2014 - 09:30 AM, said:

Seems Russia is countering by embargoing all American eu and Norwegian food products. I really am curious I that's not more skin to shooting themselves in the foot.

In any event strikes me as very reactionary and petty.

I need to find out more about Russia and Putin because it's fast becoming 1970 again

Regarding the food products: Polish newspapers report that the boycot against them is failing spectacularly. They sell their agricultural produce now to Belarus for a slightly higher price, Belarus repacks it to erase the Polish logo, and sells it for more to Russian stores. Basically, the boycot introduced a middleman who takes his cut and everyone grows richer as a result, while it does backfire for Russia.

This is true for the US as well. Food imports into China have increased and it seems that the Chinese are selling the food to Russians at higher prices than what Russia was getting from the US Companies.

The only real card Putin can play is stopping Oil/Natural Gas to the EU, but that would decimate his economy faster than the EU would run out (although the EU Would pay higher prices from other sources).

It sucks for those in Ukraine, but a slow economic sanction should eventually lead to less death and destruction then a military intervention in Ukraine.

nevermind how many soldiers and innocents die in the meanwhile, right?

it's open warfare in there now, btw. Proper invasion. several brigades of Russian regulars.

And NATO won't even give UA weapons...

[Tsundoku]

Yep, even our dumbarse media are calling it a proper invasion now. Looks like they're heading for Crimea along the coast, or maybe going to push north as well toward Donetsk.

Has war been declared?

An initial response from us should be Russia immediately kicked out of EVERY international organisation they are in, especially the UN security council.

After that ... who knows? Ye gods, what a fucking mess.